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Thread: Why a sound Dollar matters.

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    Default Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Melonie and I have noted with alarm and dismay the declining value of the Dollar.
    Some regular readers do not think that is as important as other economic issues.
    Others, I submit, do not understand why a sound currency is so important. So forgive me for donning my professorial cap and let me explain a few things.

    Money today is worthless in and of itself. That's right. Unless it is convertible into gold on demand it has NO intrinsic value. None. Zero. Zip. NADA ! What you can DO with money has value. Namely you can convert a specific amount into a good or service. You can save it and it can be lent to someone else. You can invest it and the recipient of your investment lends it; or buys goods and services necessary to expand its business or does something else that has value like R & D.

    A perfect example is Confederate vs. Union currency during the Civil War. Other nations were willing to transact business with the Union and accept payment in gold. The Confederates lacked enough gold to buy the foreign goods and weapons it needed. All it could do was trade an equivalent amount of cotton for what it wanted to buy overseas. Likewise, within the Confederacy, so much money was printed that soon the Southern currency wasn't worth the match to burn it with. It had no intrinsic value and there was so much of it and so little to buy with it that eventually there was no real money based economy in the South. They were reduced to a barter economy.

    We use the dollar to quantify value. Most of Europe uses the Euro. the British use the Pound etc. etc. When we buy a product or commodity overseas we pay for it in that amount of dollars needed to match the value of it in the native currency. According to the exchange rate. Most currencies "float" and are bought and sold so that they're value varies from day to day. The more our dollar is worth, the less we have to pay for foreign goods and products. And vice versa. Many things affect the relative worth of our dollar. One is interest rates charged by the Fed and paid by the Treasury. Relatively high rates vis a vis other countries encourage investment in OUR T-bills,notes and bonds. Likewise it encourages deposits in our banks.Our rate of monetary growth affects the value of the dollar. Too many dollars cheapens their value. That is part of inflation.

    When we have high inflation, the dollar weakens because holders of those dollars or investments measured in dollars seek to put their money elsewhere to avoid having its value dissipate. When that happens, the Treasury has to raise the rate of interest on the debt it has issued to encourage investors to buy that debt. That creates even more pressure on the Federal budget because a greater share of said budget has to pay said interest on said National debt. But with inflation under control and a strong dollar that people want to hold, the Treasury does not have as much of that pressure.

    Over the last four years or so, the dollar has lost a third of it's value. One direct consequence was the price of oil. It's benchmark of value was and is the dollar. A declining dollar increased the price. And more of those dollars were required to buy a barrel of oil and pay to have it shipped to the U.S. The oil shock of 2005-8 directly contributed to the mortgage meltdown. Marginal borrowers who were just getting by and staying current could no longer do so after getting hit with higher gasoline and heating oil prices. That resulted in many defaults and all that flowed directly and indirectly therefrom which I need not rehash.

    There's more to it and others are free to expand and expound but that in a nutshell is why a strong dollar matters. As I pointed out in another thread, Clinton and Rubin gave us a strong dollar and we had economic growth and low inflation. Remember when gas was $1.00 a gallon ? It wasn't that long ago- 1998 and 1999. Reagan defended the dollar and we had growth and low inflation. G.W.Bush did NOT defend the dollar and it contributed to the oil shock. Obama has not defended the dollar. I suspect he does not want to and will not do so.
    I think he will welcome high inflation to help him pay off all the debt he is ringing up. I think he likes the idea of $100 a barrel oil.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 09-24-2009 at 07:41 AM.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Over the last four years or so, the dollar has lost a third of it's value. One direct consequence was the price of oil. It's benchmark of value was and is the dollar. A declining dollar increased the price.
    Or, the price of oil might reflect the increasing demand for the product from India and China, both huge net importers of oil and refined products.

    There's more to it and others are free to expnad and expound but that in a nutshell is why a strong dollar matters. As I pointed out in another thread, Clinton and Rubin gave us a strong dollar and we had economic growth and low inflation.
    Clinton and Rubin through their poorly planned deregulation of the financial markets sowed the seeds of the current deep recession. Let's not let the facts get in the way a good screed.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    We've had a 60 cent dollar and a buck ten dollar....it's all good.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Huh. I can convert my money into movie tickets, food, gas, etc. Quantities of such things might be suspect though.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zofia View Post
    ...Clinton and Rubin through their poorly planned deregulation of the financial markets sowed the seeds of the current deep recession. Let's not let the facts get in the way a good screed.
    They and others before them may have sown the seeds, but the Bush crowd profusely fertilized and watered them. I would have said provided light, but they pretty much kept us all in the dark about their informal release of much needed rational financial regulation.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by threlayer View Post
    They and others before them may have sown the seeds, but the Bush crowd profusely fertilized and watered them. I would have said provided light, but they pretty much kept us all in the dark about their informal release of much needed rational financial regulation.
    There is plenty of blame to go around as far as reckless deregulation is concerned.
    Some of the brightest minds in BOTH parties pushed for it - Rubin, Greenspan etc.

    Ironically, The Bushies became well aware of what was happening, especially with home mortgages. They and a few Senators like McCain made an effort to put on the brakes and get Fannie and Freddie under control. They got ZERO cooperation from the Dems and far too little support from their fellow Republicans.
    You're quite correct in that they didn't even go "public" and tell the people what was happening. As with many problems, they just kept delaying the day of reckoning.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeybobby View Post
    We've had a 60 cent dollar and a buck ten dollar....it's all good.
    Really ? Well my Canadian dancer friends couldn't buy very much in the U.S. with their $.60 Canadian dollars and LOVED getting paid in U.S. greenbacks. it also made Canadian oil and gas dirt cheap in the U.S. Americans didn't want to work in Canada unless they were paid in American dollars. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.Your memory is VERY short as to Canada's problems when it's dollar was so weak.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zofia View Post
    Or, the price of oil might reflect the increasing demand for the product from India and China, both huge net importers of oil and refined products.

    Clinton and Rubin through their poorly planned deregulation of the financial markets sowed the seeds of the current deep recession. Let's not let the facts get in the way a good screed.
    Leaving out the effects of supply and demand ( including speculation ) the price of oil is directly affected by the weakness of the dollar. What do you think we use to pay for our imported oil ?

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    There is plenty of blame to go around as far as reckless deregulation is concerned....
    Yes. As I've been saying all along.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Ironically, The Bushies became well aware of what was happening, especially with home mortgages. They and a few Senators like McCain made an effort to put on the brakes and get Fannie and Freddie under control. They got ZERO cooperation from the Dems and far too little support from their fellow Republicans.
    You have to turn the light on to find the brake lever; they could have done that much.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    You're quite correct in that they didn't even go "public" and tell the people what was happening. As with many problems, they just kept delaying the day of reckoning.
    Too bad for them it bubbled over before they got outta there; now it's in the history books.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Leaving out the effects of supply and demand ( including speculation ) the price of oil is directly affected by the weakness of the dollar. What do you think we use to pay for our imported oil ?
    If you assume away enough facts, you can reach any conclusion you want. Unfortunately in the real world, we cannot leave out the effects of supply and demand.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zofia View Post
    If you assume away enough facts, you can reach any conclusion you want. Unfortunately in the real world, we cannot leave out the effects of supply and demand.
    Wait a minute ! Why do I have to keep repeating things. A while ago Melonie and I had to explain to "Eagle" how and why the value of the dollar affects oil prices OVER and ABOVE the price set by supply and demand. You're half right.

    Assuming we had a strong dollar from 2005-2008 we would still have seen a substantial increase in the price of oil. A weak dollar was just gasoline poured on the fire adding 10% and maybe even 20% to the overall price.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Yesterday the dollar hit a fresh one year low.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    ^^ Of course it does. All three influnce oil prices. However, if you take each cost element separately and say that it comes from borrowed dollars, that attribution may be somewhat valid. But if you add in the cost of all elements, they all cannot be sourced by Chinese loans. We still have lots of tax dollars paid in by American workers and corporations that pay for most of our expenses. And that's the rest of the story.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by threlayer View Post
    ^^ Of course it does. All three influnce oil prices. However, if you take each cost element separately and say that it comes from borrowed dollars, that attribution may be somewhat valid. But if you add in the cost of all elements, they all cannot be sourced by Chinese loans. We still have lots of tax dollars paid in by American workers and corporations that pay for most of our expenses. And that's the rest of the story.
    You obviously haven't checked the Federal budget lately. Compare total receipts and total outlays. Then look at how much of our debt is foreign held and not just by the Chinese.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Wait a minute ! Why do I have to keep repeating things. A while ago Melonie and I had to explain to "Eagle" how and why the value of the dollar affects oil prices OVER and ABOVE the price set by supply and demand. You're half right.

    Assuming we had a strong dollar from 2005-2008 we would still have seen a substantial increase in the price of oil. A weak dollar was just gasoline poured on the fire adding 10% and maybe even 20% to the overall price.
    You are hard to pin down, that makes your arguments very ineffective. So, do we assume away supply and demand as you did earlier, or not, as you do now. Pick one, but you can't have it both ways.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zofia View Post
    You are hard to pin down, that makes your arguments very ineffective. So, do we assume away supply and demand as you did earlier, or not, as you do now. Pick one, but you can't have it both ways.
    Puleeeeze ! You are being pedantic. Did you R E A D my posts especially the one where I said: Even assuming a stronger dollar, the price of oil would have gone up and that the weak dollar affected oil prices by about 10 to 20%.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    You obviously haven't checked the Federal budget lately. Compare total receipts and total outlays. Then look at how much of our debt is foreign held and not just by the Chinese.
    OK, maybe this year is an exception for the US, as it is for most other countries. But I'm supposed to check in on the federal budget every so often? At least my securties send me their income and balance sheets every year.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Really ? Well my Canadian dancer friends couldn't buy very much in the U.S. with their $.60 Canadian dollars and LOVED getting paid in U.S. greenbacks. it also made Canadian oil and gas dirt cheap in the U.S. Americans didn't want to work in Canada unless they were paid in American dollars. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.Your memory is VERY short as to Canada's problems when it's dollar was so weak.
    I'm sure there are more important matters for most Canadians than how much Canadian dancers can buy in the US. If the Canadian dollar is worth only $.60 and Canadians are able to maintain their standard of living, what difference does it make?

    Canadian oil and gas cost the same amount as oil and gas from anywhere else in the world. There is only one world price for a barrel of oil, regardless of where it comes from.
    Last edited by eagle2; 09-25-2009 at 07:58 PM.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post

    Over the last four years or so, the dollar has lost a third of it's value. One direct consequence was the price of oil. It's benchmark of value was and is the dollar. A declining dollar increased the price. And more of those dollars were required to buy a barrel of oil and pay to have it shipped to the U.S. The oil shock of 2005-8 directly contributed to the mortgage meltdown. Marginal borrowers who were just getting by and staying current could no longer do so after getting hit with higher gasoline and heating oil prices. That resulted in many defaults and all that flowed directly and indirectly therefrom which I need not rehash.
    Why is the price of gas lower today than it was four years ago, after the dollar lost 1/3 of its value? If rising oil prices directly contributed to the mortgage meltdown, why did the number of foreclosures increase at the same time the price of gas was falling dramatically?

    To see a chart with the price of gas over the past four years, go to the chart on the page below and select "4 years":

    http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    ^^ The prce of oil is subject to speculation and to OPEC and perceived world disasters, and the speculators do not control the value of the dollar. Also gold is similarly speculative. The yen is a bit subject to idiosyncratic Japanese policies. The Euro however may be a better indicator. The dollare has not lost 33% compared to the Euro over that period.

    This problem would not have happened to this extent but for the Bush guns and butter policy, which was done so that the US populace would better allow him and his neo-con bedmates to play Army in Iraq. We should have been paying for his war instead of buying toys and doodads from China on China's borrowed money. What an IDIOT !!!
    Last edited by threlayer; 09-26-2009 at 08:24 PM.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Some analysts are tipping the AUD to surpass 1USD within a year. Of course, analysts can say anything and still get paid
    Once again, the conservative, sandwich-heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor
    - Dr John Zoidberg

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Canadian oil and gas cost the same amount as oil and gas from anywhere else in the world. There is only one world price for a barrel of oil, regardless of where it comes from.
    This is true for oil, because oil can be transported anywhere in the world via tankers. However it is NOT true for natural gas ... because there are very few LNG tanker terminals and the environmentalists are successfully opposing the construction of additional ones. Thus natural gas is sold in 'captive' regional markets served primarily by regional pipelines, and the price of natural gas varies widely between different regional markets based on total regional production versus total regional comsumption. Canada really has only one market for it's natural gas - the USA. The USA also produces a fair amount of natural gas itself, and obviously the use of natural gas by US industries has been severely reduced of late. This is the reason that Canadian natural gas export prices have recently dropped to multi-year lows while the price of oil has dropped much less in percentage terms. Granted that Canadian natural gas export prices have rebounded very recently in US dollar terms based on the oncoming heating season and (overly) rosy projections for future US industrial activity.


    Some analysts are tipping the AUD to surpass 1USD within a year
    This indeed likely to happen, since the exchange rate of the AUD is heavily tied to Australia's exports of commodities thus worldwide commodity prices. The same is true of the Canadian dollar. However, a rising currency is a mixed blessing for those who must earn their money and pay their bills in a currency whose global value is rising. For example, although there has been a recent rebound in the US dollar denominated price of exported Canadian natural gas, in point of fact the gas price has risen much less in terms of Canadian dollars !

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Really ? Well my Canadian dancer friends couldn't buy very much in the U.S. with their $.60 Canadian dollars and LOVED getting paid in U.S. greenbacks. it also made Canadian oil and gas dirt cheap in the U.S. Americans didn't want to work in Canada unless they were paid in American dollars. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.Your memory is VERY short as to Canada's problems when it's dollar was so weak.
    Sorry Eric...none of these things were actually "problems".

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeybobby View Post
    Sorry Eric...none of these things were actually "problems".
    Oh. Really ? Of course. How silly of me. Except that a weak Canadian dollar affected ALL business between Canada and the U.S. It was good for Americans and bad for Canadians. Likewise, last year when the American dollar was weak and the Canadian was strong, Canadian shoppers did well shopping over the border while U.S. seniors who bought their drugs in Canada had to pay a premium.

    In the long term, both countries have benefitted when their currencies are roughly at par; which they are now btw.

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    Default Re: Why a sound Dollar matters.

    Quote Originally Posted by threlayer View Post
    ^^ The prce of oil is subject to speculation and to OPEC and perceived world disasters, and the speculators do not control the value of the dollar. Also gold is similarly speculative. The yen is a bit subject to idiosyncratic Japanese policies. The Euro however may be a better indicator. The dollare has not lost 33% compared to the Euro over that period.

    This problem would not have happened to this extent but for the Bush guns and butter policy, which was done so that the US populace would better allow him and his neo-con bedmates to play Army in Iraq. We should have been paying for his war instead of buying toys and doodads from China on China's borrowed money. What an IDIOT !!!
    I substantially agree with you. Bush and Greenspan followed by Bernanke pursued weak dollar policies which Obama is continuing and making WORSE !

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