... the PMI is usually a very accurate indicator of things to come because A. the data is gathered directly from industry purchasing managers as opposed to gov't agencies, and B. the data crunching is kept to simple arithmetic without 'hedontic adjustments' or 'seasonal adjustments' or 'birth-death model adjustments' or any of the other gov't sleight of hand that affects gov't indexes.
Also, the PMI is a 'leading' indicator since it takes a while for higher manufacturer's input costs to translate into higher retail prices, for falling orders / shrinking backlog to translate into additional layoffs etc.
(snip)"Gee, I thought the economy was improving?
SEPT CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX: 46.1 [actual] Vs 52 [expected by the experts] - [with 50 being neutral - sic]
**sub-indices:
- Prices Paid: 51.3 v 50.0 last
- New Orders: 46.3 v 52.5 last
- Employment: 38.8 v 38.7 last
- Inventories: 38.9 v 27.5 last
- Supplier Deliveries: 49.3 v 54.6 last
- Production: 47.2 v 52.9 last
- Order Backlogs: 36.7 v 45.8 last
Let's see.... besides the topline miss, we have prices paid up (bad), new orders down (bad), employment up 0.1% (marginally better to flat), inventories up (bad if you're not selling 'em!), supplier deliveries down (bad), production down (bad) and order backlogs collapsing (really bad.)
I know it probably gets old, but I told 'ya you were smoking 'dem "green shoots"!
(Still bullish are 'ya?)"(snip)
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