Results 1 to 14 of 14

Thread: Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head next

  1. #1
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head next

    John Maudlin just posted an extremely interesting piece at ... which pulls together a whole lot of very basic economic data.

    (snip)"If This is Recovery, Where Are the Taxes?

    I keep reading about surveys that show that retail sales are up. But as noted above, no one pays extra sales taxes, or decides they need to pay more income taxes. The surest way to measure retail sales is sales taxes. Want to know how incomes are doing? Look at income tax receipts. Let's look at sales taxes first.

    First off, I can find no single source of recent sales tax information. It is all one-off, but it is consistent. Sales taxes in my home state of Texas are down 12.8% year-over-year, and we're in the fifth straight month of decreases of 11% or more. Projections are for sales taxes to continue to decline into 2010.

    There is a very revealing study by the Pew Center on state taxes, called "Beyond California" (). Everyone knows how bad California is. The Pew Center looks at how the rest of the states are doing, and focuses on 10 states that also have severe problems. Sales tax receipts are down 14% in Arizona, and state income taxes are down 32%.

    On average, revenues are down almost 12%. Oregon has seen their revenues collapse a stunning 19%. New York is down 17%, with a deficit of 32%. Illinois has a projected deficit of 47% of its budget, second only to California with 49%. You can see how your state fares at ."(snip)

    The author's point of course is that state and local sales tax receipts directly track actual spending on 'non-essential' items ( because essentials such as food and clothings are typically exempt from sales tax ). This is of direct relevance to dancers in that lap dances are near the top of any list of 'non-essential' items. Also, these sales tax / 'non-essential' spending levels do not yet fully reflect the higher federal, state and local taxes which are in the pipeline for 2010.


    (snip)"Yesterday I was with an associate, and I hesitated in asking them how their business was doing, because I knew things had been tough at the beginning of the year. But I did ask, and they said sales were up over the last months and business was looking better. Surprised, I asked them what made the difference. "Ah," they said, "less competition. Our competitors have gone out of business."

    Best Buy and other electronic retailers had to benefit from Circuit City disappearing. That is Schumpeter's creative destruction at work. Not very good for total employment, but it does help the profitability of the survivors.

    So, if things are so bad, how did we have 3.5% growth in the third quarter? First off, things are not as bad as they were in the past year. We are in fact getting close to an economic bottom, at least for now. Second, the 3.5% number is a preliminary estimate. A study by Goldman Sachs suggests that the number will be revised down by at least 0.5% and maybe as much as 1%.

    Why? The estimate does not really take into account how poorly small businesses are performing. If you look at small-business indexes and compare them to historical GDP numbers, you get the smaller number mentioned above. And since at least 2% of the GDP was from the stimulus package (Cash for Clunkers, houses, tax cuts), the economy on its own was flat."(snip)

    The author's point is that, while the economy in general is not improving, it is possible for specific businesses to do better as a result of their competition being shut down / going bankrupt. This principle can apply to strip clubs and dancers as well - providing of course that you are one of the dancers able to work at a 'surviving' club.


    (snip)"my friend Mike Shedlock of Sitka Pacific Capital Management has done a wonderful job of taking that speculation of mine and putting it into a spreadsheet that helps us get a real handle on what unemployment is likely to look like for the next ten years. I am going to make use of his basic analysis and then modify some of his assumptions in the spreadsheet he provided me, in order to think about different scenarios.

    All three scenarios are based on assumptions, so let's see what Mish started with. There is a wealth of data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau. According to the Census Bureau Population Estimates we are going to add about 2.5 million working-age (16 years old and up) citizens a year, from now until 2020. The numbers varies slightly year to year. Mish used an estimate of the average, summing up the buckets from 16 to 100+ for the years in question and rounding the result.

    You can go to the BLS site and look at Table A-1, which shows the civilian noninstitutional population (those over 16 not in prisons), the participation rate (those who are working and/or want to work), the unemployment rate, the number employed, those not in the labor force, and those who want a job. Those are starting numbers for the charts below.

    For those interested, you can read Mish's very full (and quite detailed) analysis at his blog site ). But let's look at his assumptions:

    Job losses are likely to continue for a minimum of another year.
    When job gains start, they will be very slow at first, then pick up.
    An extremely generous monthly job gain stat over the course of the year would be 150,000 jobs.
    A falling participation rate (boomers retiring) will continue to mask reported unemployment.
    Starting in 2013 the labor pool will start decreasing because of Boomer demographics.
    The noninstitutional population will rise by 2.5 million workers a year.



    Notice that unemployment stays at or above 11% for three years. Pessimistic? Mainstream and usually very optimistic Mark Zandi of predicted this week that unemployment would rise to 11% by the middle of next year, right in line with this scenario. Also note that total jobs rise by 14 million over ten years. Hardly doom and gloom. Again, Boomers all retire on time and there is no double-dip recession."(snip)

    While the author runs through two other future unemployment scenarios, his main point is that no projection based on 'real numbers' results in US unemployment dropping below 10% again until at least 2013. This would obviously translate into zero improvement in consumer / club customer spending levels over the same time period.


    (snip)"Think 13% is too dire? This week David Rosenberg said unemployment would rise to between 12-13%. The former Merrill Lynch economist was one of the few mainstream economists who called the recession and the credit crisis. The so-called "Blue Chip" economists told us at the beginning of 2008 that unemployment would peak out at 6%. While Rosie is not optimistic of late, he has a rather solid record of being right.

    We are at 10.2% unemployment today. The economy lost jobs for 21 months after the end of the last recession. That would easily take us into 2011. Another million lost jobs will take us well over 11% and close to 12% (remember, you have to add in the increasing population), even without my double-dip scenario."(snip)

    Arguably, this actually predicts a further drop in consumer / club customer spending levels over the course of the next year or two as the result of unemployment rates spiking well above 10%. This will also exacerbate spending reductions on 'non-essential' items, since ongoing higher state and local taxes which the states will need to collect in order to fund ongoing unemployment and other benefits will continue to divert money earned by those Americans who still have jobs.

  2. #2
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head nex

    In regard to specific relevance to dancers, please consider the following possibilities based on the above analysis and projections ...

    - it is likely that dancing earnings potential over the next year, perhaps two years, will become even worse than it already has

    - it is possible that some percentage of strip clubs will be forced to close over the next couple of years due to insufficient customer spending. A corrolary to this point will be that some clubs will attempt to 'extract' a larger share of dancer earnings i.e. higher stage fees / house fees / private dance 'splits', in order to keep the club solvent.

    - it is almost certain that higher federal, state and local taxes will claim a larger share of remaining dancing earnings


    Logically speaking, if you believe the above scenario ...

    - avoid making any sort of financial commitments that will require your current level of ( after tax ) dancing earnings to support. This refers to auto loans, home mortgages, etc. and perhaps even long term apartment leases.

    - on the assumption that your actual ( after tax ) dancing earnings are likely to decline next year by the same 10% level that sales tax receipts will decline, it might make a lot of sense to cut 10% out of your present 'cost of living' budget right now and bank it while you can. Not only will the 10% 'cost of living' budget reduction allow you to avoid a negative cash flow next year ( when your dancing earnings may drop by 10% ), but the dollars that you are able to bank in the meantime may come in very handy to cover economic 'surprises' that develop over the next couple of years.


    On the other hand, if you don't believe in the above scenario, don't change anything. In fact, you might as well take advantage of whatever credit you still have available. If the scenario doesn't happen, you haven't sacrificed anything. And if the scenario does happen, some sort of gov't bailout program will probably be made available to help you 'keep' that house or car. In the worst case you file for bankruptcy like 10 million other Americans will !

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 11-15-2009 at 07:00 AM.

  3. #3
    God/dess Zofia's Avatar
    Joined
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Durham, North Carolina
    Posts
    2,417
    Thanks
    2,964
    Thanked 2,370 Times in 934 Posts

    Default Re: Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head nex

    Cant this thread be rescued? Everything Mel posted was another version of her constant dollar den of doom.

    Now, knowing that unemployment is up and that state sales tax revenues are down, two facts over which we have no control, what should we do? Think about what we do have control over. We control our work lives, we control our spending. We control our investing and saving. Pick one issue. I'll say work.

    When you go to work, are you one of the dancers who sits at the bar and drinks? Change that behavior, go talk to custies. Remember each custy who tipped you during your set. Thank them. Ask each one if he or she wants some company. Chat them up. ask for a dance. You would be amazed at how much more you will make by asking each dollar tipper for a dance.

    Anyone else have any ideas on how to make work more productive? Chime in.

    Z

  4. #4
    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
    Joined
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    5,493
    Thanks
    120
    Thanked 50 Times in 35 Posts

    Default Re: Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head nex

    Well, other retailers are lowering prices...

  5. #5
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head nex

    ^^^ and still other retailers are 'firing' their less effective sales staff in order to maintain 'viable' commission earnings for their more effective sales staff.

  6. #6
    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
    Joined
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    5,493
    Thanks
    120
    Thanked 50 Times in 35 Posts

    Default Re: Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head nex

    Seriously though - there are a lot of dancers who don't "ask for the sale." They got to make contact with each and every person at each and every table and ask for the dance. Sales is a numbers game and doing a quick whirl and running to the dressing room won't make much money.

    I knew a woman who was a top earner in the club - that is exactly what she did. Each and every guy in the club (this was pre-female customers for the most part - showing my age.)

    I would write her pitches (she no longer dances) but that would be more appropriate for Hustle Hut than Dollar Den.

  7. #7
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head nex

    go talk to custies. Remember each custy who tipped you during your set. Thank them. Ask each one if he or she wants some company. Chat them up. ask for a dance. You would be amazed at how much more you will make by asking each dollar tipper for a dance
    there are a lot of dancers who don't "ask for the sale." They got to make contact with each and every person at each and every table and ask for the dance. Sales is a numbers game
    ^^^ very true, Zofia and Deo ... and I guess a point that 'serious professional dancers' tend to take for granted i.e. making contact with each and every person in the club.

    However, I would also point out that in addition to 'asking for the sale', in tough economic times there is always a larger element of providing 'value' for the price in order to make the sale. Where dancers are concerned, this can be both 'qualitative' or 'quantitative' (unfortunately).

    From the 'qualitative' side, dancers can attempt to improve their 'value' offered by working out a little harder, watching their diets a bit more strictly, paying more attention to hair / makeup etc. This can't put additional money in the pockets of club customers, but it might make the difference in a customer spending what money he has on you instead of on a different dancer.

    From the 'quantitative' side, like desparate real estate agents throwing in new cars / swimming pools etc. as 'sweeteners' to close the sale on new houses, desparate dancers will undoubtedly throw in 'extras' as 'sweeteners' to close the sale on private dances / VIP's. There really isn't any effective way to 'compete' with such offerings. The best option is to try and circumvent such offerings by finding markets where such offerings have not yet become part of the 'new business model', or to offer so much in the way of higher 'value' from the 'qualitative' side that the availability of 'sweeteners' from lower 'value' alternatives is not pursuasive to high 'value' customers.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 11-15-2009 at 05:11 PM.

  8. #8
    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
    Joined
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    5,493
    Thanks
    120
    Thanked 50 Times in 35 Posts

    Default Re: Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head nex

    Everyone in all businesses are being asked to do increased duties and more hours. Increased duties to stay economically viable is just a little different in the dance world I guess. (Ewwww Ewww)

    There needs to be innovation. Don't count on club owners for this LOL

    But as an aside, and why I mentioned Hustle Hut, is that according to the descriptions we have Hustle Hut as "Share or ask for advanced money-making tips!" and Dollar Den is "Taxes, investing, fees, other money question? Discuss it in the den!"

    I fear some of the bent-out-of-shapedness is from mis-expectations of what is discussed in each of these forums.

    (And what is even more humorous, is that I have plenty of knowledge from a high earning dancer - but I ain't saying shit about what she relayed to me because I'm not a dancer. Plenty on here have told others "You're not a dancer so don't tell me how to do my job." Fine I say, but sales is sales from types of approaches etc. Oh well! LOL)

  9. #9
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head nex

    But as an aside, and why I mentioned Hustle Hut, is that according to the descriptions we have Hustle Hut as "Share or ask for advanced money-making tips!" and Dollar Den is "Taxes, investing, fees, other money question? Discuss it in the den!"

    I fear some of the bent-out-of-shapedness is from mis-expectations of what is discussed in each of these forums.
    Indeed, by these published boundaries, discussion of in-club money making techniques is supposed to be a Hustle Hut topic. However, like every other aspect of financial / economic discussions, there will always be some unavoidable overlap.


    knowing that unemployment is up and that state sales tax revenues are down, two facts over which we have no control, what should we do? Think about what we do have control over.
    Not wanting to make too much of a point along this line either, but we arguably DO have some element of control over such issues. Admittedly, this element of control only materializes for one day every two years, in early November !

    But in the meantime, you are absolutely correct that the only things that are immediately under a dancer's control are her spending, her savings and her investments. But all of these are subordinate to her being able to leave the club with a 'surplus' of dancing earnings over and above the amount needed to meet 'basic minimum costs of living'. Arguably, this speaks to the necessity of 'successful' dancers to do what is necessary in order to maintain this 'surplus' of dancing earnings despite falling club earnings potential. As mentioned earlier, this may involve improved sales technique / increased sales effort. This might also involve improving the 'quality' of the 'goods' being offered. And despite the Ewwww factor, this might also involve the addition of 'sweeteners' in order to close private dance / VIP sales.

    I will also go out on a limb and state an 'inconvenient truth'. Under current and probable near future strip club economic conditions, there are a number of current dancers who lack the work ethic / lack the 'quality' of 'goods' / lack the willingness to provide 'sweeteners' that are increasingly required to remain financially successful in this business. Eventually, market forces ( such as increased house fees / private dance 'splits', or decreased club customer spending on these specific dancers ) will drive such dancers out of the business. From one viewpoint, it would actually be preferable for such dancers to recognize their situation / personal 'business ethics', to 'cut their losses', and to divert their work efforts along different career lines which can offer a better chance for short term financial success.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 11-15-2009 at 05:38 PM.

  10. #10
    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
    Joined
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    5,493
    Thanks
    120
    Thanked 50 Times in 35 Posts

    Default Re: Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head nex

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Not wanting to make too much of a point along this line either, but we arguably DO have some element of control over such issues. Admittedly, this element of control only materializes for one day every two years, in early November !
    And to exercise that control, one needs to talk politics for taxes and politics are deeply intertwined. (Note it is the politics of money!)

    (And often, there is a bit outside the ballot, by kicking up a dust storm which brings the whole matter to a halt sometimes.)

  11. #11
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head nex

    ^^^ well, for many reasons, there is no point in dwelling on this particular aspect. For a fact, the economic policies now in effect in Washington DC and state capitals are not likely to change over the course of the next year ... and the policies already being set in motion are going to have continuing effects for several years to come. As such, all that can be practically accomplished in the short term is to recognize and acknowledge what is happening ( and very likely about to happen ) economy wise, and to adapt personal activities to make the best of the situation and /or minimize the downside personal consequences. If we can help 'focus' the ( likely ) impacts on the exotic dancing business, then IMHO we are furthering the 'mandate' of Dollar Den.

    From a personal standpoint, this is precisely why I am posting this from a location 'way south of the border' ! As I have posted elsewhere, sometimes avoiding 'losses' is every bit as important as increasing earnings. And legally minimizing the payment of increased US federal and state taxes certainly constitutes avoiding a 'loss'.

  12. #12
    God/dess threlayer's Avatar
    Joined
    Aug 2003
    Location
    Syracuse
    Posts
    5,921
    Thanks
    369
    Thanked 419 Times in 290 Posts
    My Mood
    Fine

    Default Re: Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head nex

    Sounds like a lot more competition beween dancers is coming to the forefront. This is just like everything else in your work and economic life. We are all ramping up competition for our spendable dollars. This is good in general, but a lot of worthwhile goods (and dancers) will fall by the wayside in the rush to maximize profits (expense vs income).
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

  13. #13
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head nex

    We are all ramping up competition for our spendable dollars. This is good in general, but a lot of worthwhile goods (and dancers) will fall by the wayside in the rush to maximize profits (expense vs income).
    this position of course depends on whether one is the 'retailer' ( dancer ) or the customer !!! Historically speaking, the 'retailers' ( dancers ) don't actually benefit until some element of their competition is driven out of business.

    I would also point out that when the competition for discretionary dollars becomes intense, historically speaking one common 'casualty' of that intense competition is often 'business ethics'.

  14. #14
    God/dess threlayer's Avatar
    Joined
    Aug 2003
    Location
    Syracuse
    Posts
    5,921
    Thanks
    369
    Thanked 419 Times in 290 Posts
    My Mood
    Fine

    Default Re: Straightfoward analysis - where the economy is, and where it's likely to head nex

    ^^ You mentioned "business ethics" in a thread about the stripping business? In my experience the club management (the wholesaler) is the entity largely devoid of business ethics. I would expect that managenement will try to drive other clubs out of business. I would expect that the customer will experience much stress in their own lives and some marriages will fall apart. There would be some opportunity for additional competition.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 4
    Last Post: 09-29-2011, 06:31 PM
  2. Service Economy vs Manufacture Economy
    By xanfiles1 in forum Dollar Den
    Replies: 20
    Last Post: 05-04-2008, 03:36 AM
  3. Masturbation Fantasy Analysis...
    By francescadubois in forum The Lounge
    Replies: 53
    Last Post: 06-13-2006, 12:30 PM
  4. Blood Analysis
    By shiningstar0001 in forum Body Business
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 10-10-2005, 06:03 AM
  5. Stripper Analysis...The DR. is In
    By fishnet in forum Shop Talk
    Replies: 51
    Last Post: 03-24-2004, 06:56 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •