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Thread: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

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    Default Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    The worst is yet to come: Unemployed Americans should hunker down for more job losses

    BY
    Sunday, November 15th 2009, 4:00 AM




    Think the worst is over? Wrong. Conditions in the labor markets are awful and worsening. While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2% and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5%.


    While losing 200,000 jobs per month is better than the 700,000 jobs lost in January, current job losses still average more than the per month rate of 150,000 during the last recession.

    ...

    (In short, prepare for emptier clubs and smaller tips from customers.)

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    Maybe more people should become strip club customers to make up for those usual customers not spending as much. How do we do that?
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    ^^^ you do that the same way that WalMart and Costco attract new customers ... you lower prices and / or provide more 'bang' for the same buck !

    back on topic, if one 'looks under the hood' on recent (un)employment numbers, job losses in the private sector continue to pile up. However, these are offset to some degree by an increase in 'public sector' employment ... from teachers to health care workers to gov't contractor workers. Unfortunately, in virtually all cases, those teachers and health care workers and gov't contractor workers are being paid via money that the gov't must borrow and pay interest on ! And in all cases, those teachers and health care workers and gov't contractor workers contribute zero additional tax revenue to help the gov't pay its interest, repay the principal it borrowed, or fund the paychecks of other 'public sector' workers.

    Granted that 'public sector' workers can also be strip club customers ! But if history is any guide, most of the added 'public sector' jobs will only last as long as the ( borrowed ) gov't grant money that funds them.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ you do that the same way that WalMart and Costco attract new customers ... you lower prices and / or provide more 'bang' for the same buck !
    ...
    And in all cases, those teachers and health care workers and gov't contractor workers contribute zero additional tax revenue to help the gov't pay its interest, repay the principal it borrowed, or fund the paychecks of other 'public sector' workers.
    ...
    You gotta get them in there first; how do you interest new people to come into strip club ?

    You mean you think they (teachers and health care workers and gov't contractor workers) don't pay taxes??? Not clear. Also if they didn't work there, they might be on unemployment. At least they're producing something.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    You gotta get them in there first; how do you interest new people to come into strip club ?
    In today's age of strip club review websites, word gets around pretty fast !


    You mean you think they (teachers and health care workers and gov't contractor workers) don't pay taxes??? Not clear
    yes of course teachers and gov't health care workers and gov't contract workers pay taxes ... income taxes, property taxes, sales taxes etc. But my point was that every single dollar that teachers and gov't health care workers and gov't contract workers pay out in income taxes and property taxes and sales taxes originates from a non-gov't funded worker's income tax payments, property tax payments, sales tax payments etc. which provided the original funding for the gov't worker's paycheck.

    I never said that teachers, gov't health care workers, gov't contractor workers etc. do not provide a valuable service. What I DID say is that they do not and, by definition, CANNOT provide additional tax revenues no matter what level of taxes they may actually pay. Again, the obvious reason is that their paychecks consist entirely of someone else's tax dollars !

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ...my point was that every single dollar that teachers and gov't health care workers and gov't contract workers pay out in income taxes and property taxes and sales taxes originates from a non-gov't funded worker's income tax payments, property tax payments, sales tax payments etc. which provided the original funding for the gov't worker's paycheck.
    ... they do not and, by definition, CANNOT provide additional tax revenues no matter what level of taxes they may actually pay. Again, the obvious reason is that their paychecks consist entirely of someone else's tax dollars !
    If they work in IRS or state collections they can bring in money. Governnment also provides services that actually save us money; there is lots of that work. It doesn't mean that money goes directly into the government. Imagine the additional costs if strippers had to drive to work over muddy dirt or gravel roads. Or they couldn't collect money owed them because there was no authority forcing cheats to pay up.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    Quote Originally Posted by Paris View Post
    A nation should be concerned about debt reduction during a recession about as much as a person whose house is on fire should be concerned about water conservation.

    We aren't even close to the levels of deficit/gdp ratios that were present during FDR's time. Unless we discover a war we can win (and increased government spending and debt that goes along with it), we should probably continue to invest in our economic development to a much greater degree. Sort of like the venture capital investment of last resort.
    We aren't at FDR and post W.W. II levels YET. But we're getting there. Just wait until we get $3 trillion in new health care costs.

    As I've repeatedly pointed out, in among other places my critique of Obama's non stimulating "Stimulus" package, It is NOT working. it hasn't created a single job and the Obamamaniacs know it. Recovery.gov is rife with phony jobs data. It reported jobs created in Congressional Districts that do NOT exist e.g. the 15th congressional District of Arizona. Pssst. Arizona only has 8.

    New home construction was reported DOWN for October and the trucking biz has laid off another 7500 workers.

    The total rate is 17.5 % and a record short work week of 33 hours; the shortest since the average work week started getting measured 60 years ago. So even if you have a job, chances are you are working shorter hours and making less money.

    The steady unemployment rate among H.S. drop-outs is 37% according to the EPE Research Cneter and NBC News. Some cities like D.C. have a 50% drop out rate. We have 1.2 million drop outs every year. I mention this because drop outs are almost guaranteed to be net recipients as opposed to contributors.

    Next year there will be a 5.4% tax increase and elimination of inflation indexing. In 2011 the Bush tax cuts will expire. How is small business supposed to be created or expand in such an environment ?
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 11-19-2009 at 10:29 AM.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    Next year there will be a 5.4% tax increase; elimination if inflation indexing. In 2011 the Bush tax cuts will expire. How is small business supposed to be created or expand in such an environment ?
    Again not wanting to swing away too far from pure economics, but for a fact a whole lot of US business people I have talked to lately are very leery of unknown future 'employer' costs such as a new 8% national health care tax, possible back-billing of new health insurance 'voucher' costs for 'low income' employees, as well as possible significant increases in energy / utility costs due to a new carbon tax, significant increases in property taxes, etc. I'm not trying to argue the virtues or evils of any of these potential new taxes, only pointing out that they create a major balance sheet question mark for any 'small' US business owner.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    I don't think there is any doubt that this misery will have to be shared. But some people and corporations will be kicking and screaming all the inevitable way.
    Last edited by threlayer; 11-20-2009 at 02:47 PM.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    Quote Originally Posted by threlayer View Post
    I don't think there is any doubt that this misery will have to be shared. But saome people and corporations will be kicking and screaming all the inevitable way.
    They'll have plenty of company from all the people those corporations do NOT hire.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    I live in Illinois, one of the states with high unemployment. State government is impossible to get into unless you know someone (and it's extremely corrupt). Even simple jobs are getting thousands of responses. It's scary because my field is marketing and training and these jobs are hard to find. When I see one I apply, but rarely get called. I could go back to school but no guarantee there will be a job in any field.

    If anyone's to blame, it's the companies that thought nothing of sending jobs overseas. Yes, I know someone will blame unions too, and yes they are also to blame, but the companies in many cases were non union and still thought nothing of sending jobs overseas. I think the people (including the politicians) who allowed this should be tried for treason. I try to avoid any company that sent jobs overseas (Or I will tell off the stupid foreigners how much I hate them for taking American jobs).

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    ^^ It's also the American consumer for not valuing the concept of keeping money in this country, rather than trying to save maybe 2% on items by buying foreign-made goods, so that they could buy more junk and throw it away after a few weeks.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    Quote Originally Posted by threlayer View Post
    ^^ It's also the American consumer for not valuing the concept of keeping money in this country, rather than trying to save maybe 2% on items by buying foreign-made goods, so that they could buy more junk and throw it away after a few weeks.
    True. I couldn't begin to tell how many people have told me they buy from Wal-Mart because it's cheaper. When I tell them things are made cheaper for Wal-Mart they don't care that a product will end up in a landfill much sooner. I'd rather spend more money to keep products here and for them to last longer.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    It's also the American consumer for not valuing the concept of keeping money in this country
    I'd rather spend more money to keep products here
    At the risk of thread-jacking, how do you justify this position when the #1 'drain' of US dollars from US consumers to foreign suppliers is actually the ~$475 billion annual 'transfer' to foreign oil suppliers ?

    I would also point out that the handful of states which are still adding jobs ( ex ND and SD ) are heavily tied to the domestic oil industry.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    The great majority of gasoline I buy is from a company stating it is 100% from North American oil reserves. It is also most always the cheapest around here.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)


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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    Perez Hilton likes strippers?

  18. #18
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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    I'm kind of thread jacking too, but this quote makes no sense to me:

    "Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate, said the health care bill must be passed by the end of the year so that President Barack Obama and lawmakers can shift their attention to the economy and improving employment rates."

    I still don't understand why the economy isn't the number one focus right now. Pass the health care bill before they "shift their attention" to the economy and improving employment rates???

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    Quote Originally Posted by JRdancer View Post
    I'm kind of thread jacking too, but this quote makes no sense to me:

    "Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate, said the health care bill must be passed by the end of the year so that President Barack Obama and lawmakers can shift their attention to the economy and improving employment rates."

    I still don't understand why the economy isn't the number one focus right now. Pass the health care bill before they "shift their attention" to the economy and improving employment rates???
    <putting on tin foil hat>
    Jobs often come with some form of health insurance. People with health insurance don't want the status quo fucked with in case it becomes worse. Hence, it is easier to pass health insurance reform when no so many people have a stake in it (other than gettin them some.)

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    They have done most all they can about jobs in terms of government spending anyway (except for putting money in all the right places). The insurance thing is for jobs growth in that it is supposed to reduce the cost of crippling health insurance which is to an extent stifling job growth.

    The real problem is the political polarization and external funding (lobbying) of Congress. That is almost traitorous, IMO.
    Last edited by threlayer; 11-26-2009 at 08:03 AM.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kellydancer View Post
    If anyone's to blame, it's the companies that thought nothing of sending jobs overseas. Yes, I know someone will blame unions too, and yes they are also to blame, but the companies in many cases were non union and still thought nothing of sending jobs overseas. I think the people (including the politicians) who allowed this should be tried for treason. I try to avoid any company that sent jobs overseas (Or I will tell off the stupid foreigners how much I hate them for taking American jobs).
    Unions are to blame by raising the the costs to produce something so high that a business does not make a profit. Business has to profit (even non profits) or they go under from their expenses. Only Govt can operate in continual deficit.

    Govt. is complicit in this because they dropped trade tariffs, allowed importation from Countries with known civil rights violations like forced labor.

    The American consumer is to blame for choosing a product produced overseas because it is cheaper.

    Americans in general are to blame for not valuing an individuals ability to make something with ones own hands, versus and important desk job.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    Unions are to blame by raising the the costs to produce something so high that a business does not make a profit. Business has to profit (even non profits) or they go under from their expenses.
    Again trying to walk the proverbial tightrope re economic issues vs political issues, US union labor costs are just one factor where the US production cost component is far from being 'competitive' with similar production cost components in foreign countries. Besides the labor cost component, there is also a mandated employee benefit cost component, a tax component, an environmental cost component, a worker safety cost component, a legal liability cost component etc. For better or worse, the majority of these cost components are much higher in the US / Canada / Western Europe than they are in Asia / Central & South America etc.

    This leads to an economic conclusion that there are essentially three ways for a US producer to remain profitable versus far lower cost structure foreign competition. The first is for the US gov't to erect trade barriers ( tariffs, quotas, etc.) that blocks imports of the far lower cost foreign products, thus allowing the US producers to raise prices to the point where they become profitable. The second is for the US producers to actually shift the majority of their production to the far lower cost structure foreign countries - then reimport the foreign produced sub-assemblies for final assemby within the US - with a 'made in USA' label stuck on the assembled product, and with the offshore sub-assembly production cost reductions helping US producers to approach profitability at a pricing level somewhat equal to that of their foreign competitors. The third is for the US producer to lock in US taxpayer subsidies which offset their inherently higher US production cost components versus foreign competitors' lower production cost components ( which is unsustainable in the long term), thus forestalling bankruptcy of the US producer for as long as the US taxpayer subsidies continue.

    So far the US gov't has implemented isolated instances of the first case, and isolated but highly expensive instances of the third case ... while US industry is implementing the second case on a widespread basis.

    and by 'pure coincidence', yet another instance of the third case showed up on a professional investor's BBS earlier today ...

    (snip)"U.S. Solar Startups Struggling to Compete with Chinese Firms
    Solar startups talk about how they hope to take on Chinese firms.



    liked this comment:

    So let me get this straight: we're borrowing money from the Chinese to create a stimulus package so we can give grants to US companies who can't compete with the Chinese, and then we have to pay the money back to the Chinese with interest? Is this any way to manage our economy and energy industry? It's so backasswards that I can only assume someone is making a killing with these grants. I wonder who? "(snip)


    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 11-23-2009 at 01:29 PM.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    I would argue for a slight decrease (say 1-2% out of the current ~38%) in corporate profits/income taxes, since the public has gotten several over the years. But business gets a lot more tax breaks than do individuals already, particularly those publically traded...that is, as long as the tax burden doesn't shift much more to individuals. For businesses the last few percentage points often determine profit/loss, success/failure. Now this may not help so much in these extreme times, but it would have helped in times leading up to this.

    More jobs = more stripper income. We may not have to keep strippers happy, but we have to keep 'em working.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    I like to think of wages in terms of sandwiches per hour.

    The reason we are paid to work is to survive long enough to go back to work the next day.

    I have only worked shit jobs as most of the population does. It's hard to afford rent and a kitchen so at current minimum wage I can afford about one sandwich per hour and can't contribute much else to the economy as a consumer and certainly not to banks as savings....

    Some may disagree, but when the bulk of the population earns about six sandwiches a day (minus taxes) where are we supposed to buy shampoo and soap. Walmart.

    Corporations for the most part have slick accounting schemes to pay less or no taxes and we as a nation could really use the money.

    Yes Dubai is booming but for who really? The middle east rakes in money but not for the population at large, but for the people in charge.

    I'm a firm believer in share the wealth of the world and we all eat more sandwiches. Yes, I would still work because it makes me feel good. Some would say this gives people no motivation. At six sandwiches a day, I'm hardly motivated to get off my ass to go in the soup line.

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    Default Re: Jobs projection (and it ain't good)

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Again not wanting to swing away too far from pure economics, but for a fact a whole lot of US business people I have talked to lately are very leery of unknown future 'employer' costs such as a new 8% national health care tax, ...
    Believe me, if I could cap my health care costs at 8% of payroll, I would. Right now, if an employee elects family coverage at my company, she costs us a little over $10.000 per just for medical coverage. Family dental costs us another $850 per year. In other words, an 8% tax to pay for health care is beneficial to us, until our average employee wage exceeds $135,000 per full time employee, per year. Folks, that's law firm, medical practice territory.

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