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Thread: Black Friday spending down 8%

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    Default Black Friday spending down 8%

    (snip)" * Black Friday weekend spending down 8 pct per person -NRF

    * Some 195 mln shoppers on Black Friday weekend -NRF

    * Retail shares may head lower on weekend data

    * Wal-Mart, Target, Saks among stronger performers

    * Total weekend spending up 0.5 pct from yr ago -NRF
    (Adds America's Research Group data)

    By Nicole Maestri and Brad Dorfman

    SAN FRANCISCO/CHICAGO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers
    spent significantly less per person at the start of the holiday
    season this weekend, dimming hopes for a retail comeback that
    would help propel the economy early in 2010.

    The lackluster spending could pressure retail stocks on
    Monday as some investors were looking for a stronger showing
    compared with a year earlier, when consumers were being
    hammered by the recession and credit crunch.

    "There may be a bit of a pullback, a little
    disappointment," said Patricia Edwards, chief investment
    officer at Storehouse Partners.

    While shoppers turned out in force as early as U.S.
    Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, many said they had zeroed in on
    highly discounted items, would buy only what they needed and
    would walk out of a store if they did not find a good deal.

    "Shoppers proved this weekend that they were willing to
    open their wallets for a bargain," said National Retail
    Federation Chief Executive Tracy Mullin in a statement on
    Sunday. Retail chains "know they have their work cut out for
    them to keep people coming back through Christmas."

    Store chains that may have done better than their peers
    include discount retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) and
    Target Corp (TGT.N), teen apparel retailers Aeropostale Inc
    (ARO.N) and American Eagle Outfitters (AEO.N) and higher-end
    chains like Saks Inc (SKS.N), analysts said."(snip)


    One could probably draw an analogy between the facts of Black Friday spending and club spending trends of late ... i.e. bottom end and high end doing OK but middle doing badly ... i.e. a large number of shoppers only willingly opening their wallets for big ticket expenditures if they are getting much more 'bang for their buck' etc.

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    Default Re: Black Friday spending down 8%

    Speculating it will be down even more for the entire season.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Black Friday spending down 8%

    That's weird, WSJ says spending was up 0.5%

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...913688978.html


    Promote yourself and earn more money! This is a business that is owned by strippers for strippers. Let's make that money!


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    Default Re: Black Friday spending down 8%

    Just like last year, I'm simply not finding the "amazing deals" everyone talks about when I went out shopping. I had a buy 2, get 2 free coupon for any large jar in Yankee candle, but it was from earlier in the year and not a part of black Friday. The black Friday deal was buy 2 get 1 free on holiday jars only. So my regular coupon was better the the black Friday deal. A restaurant I went to wasn't bad though; half-price appetizers and $2.50 for a 22 oz draft. Macy's was the usual highway robbery, and Brookstone was regular pricing. *shrug* Nothing worth getting up early.
    Quote Originally Posted by _Avery_ View Post
    omg, why is it so huge?!! lol lol

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    Default Re: Black Friday spending down 8%

    Seriously, I don't think these numbers mean much anymore. What used to be a well defined period of the day after Thanksgiving through Xmas Eve, has now, mostly at the urging of retailers, expanded to encompass the last 4 months of the year. Artificial Xmas trees are available right after Labor Day around here, The Halloween candy aisle was replaced with Xmas candy the day after Halloween, and most of the women I know start their shopping in August and have it nearly completed by Black Friday.

    These dollars are no longer counted in the Holiday Shopping period, but they are spent for that purpose just the same. Frankly, I'm always surprised when the year over year numbers do increase.

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    Default Re: Black Friday spending down 8%

    ^Yup, that is so true in my area too. I had half my x-mas shopping done in October.
    CARMEN IS HOTT 4 A BLACK CHICK!!!!!!!!

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    Default Re: Black Friday spending down 8%

    several issues ... beginning with

    In response to Paris' question about reports of Black Friday spending being up by 1/2%, this is a 'spun' calculation based on ignoring the fact that 23 million more 'shoppers' were included in this year's survey versus last year. Among this year's 195 million Black Friday 'shoppers' versus last year's 172 million Black Friday shoppers, average spending dropped from $373 to $343. However, if you merely count total dollars spent and ignore that this spending was actually spread out over 23 million additional people in the survey, it's technically possible to say that Black Friday spending rose by 1/2%.

    As is pointed out at the link, the REAL measure of consumer spending levels will be sales tax receipts ... which are a far harder statistic to 'spin'.


    Next issue ... door-busters ! Insane markdowns on a limited number of 'non-essential' items has indeed prompted a significantly larger number of people to go shopping on Black Friday. However, those same insane markdowns do have an effect on the profitability of retailers offering them. This fact essentially negates the validity of most conclusions drawn from Black Friday spending levels, because we have no way of knowing whether a significant portion of that spending went towards flat screen TV's, laptop computers etc. that were basically sold at wholesale cost in order to entice shoppers in the door.

    In other words, even though the total number of consumer dollars supposedly increased by 1/2%, net profit for the retailers may have actually fallen like a stone if $299 of the $343 average spending level went towards door-buster products that offer essentially zero profit margin for the retailer !

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    Default Re: Black Friday spending down 8%

    ^^^ My understanding is that the current numbers are estimates and that the harder numbers come a few days later. From my own observations and reports I've gotten from friends around the country, I'd like to know where all these "new" shoppers were. I saw
    LESS shoppers ; FEWER cashiers at the stores and so did my friends. Simple logic says that if unemployment is about double now what it was this time last year, that there would be less Christmas shopping.
    This is like Obama's GDP numbers . The 3rd Quarter was reported to have 3.5% growth. It has been revised downward to 2.8%.

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    Default Re: Black Friday spending down 8%

    ^^^ absolutely agreed on the rampant use of 'estimates', 'seasonal adjustments', limited scope of measurements, and the ever-famous 'spin factor' applied to carefully selected statistics, by mainstream media to produce headlines which may or may not have an actual basis in economic reality. As such, as I mentioned earlier, the only measure of consumer spending that still has a high degree of reliability is sales tax revenue numbers ... which are essentially impossible to 'slice and dice', essentially impossible to 'cherry pick' etc. Unfortunately, there is always a significant time lag between actual consumer spending and release of sales tax revenue numbers by the states.

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    Default Re: Black Friday spending down 8%

    Well, I guess if the wealth is concentrated in the hands of a couple hundred thousand people, everyone else has nothing to go spend even on very reduced prices.

    no money is still not enough to buy a product at a very good rate.


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