Results 1 to 22 of 22

Thread: "Survival Trends' for 2010

  1. #1
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default "Survival Trends' for 2010

    many thanks to author Charles Hughes Smith, who certainly doesn't waste time on sugar coatings !


    (snip)"Here are a few of the trends described in Survival+ which I anticipate will be gathering momentum in 2010.

    1. Millions of productive citizens will opt out, voluntarily or involuntarily. Millions of small business owners will get tired of paying taxes so thousands of Federal bureaucrats can "earn" $170,000 a year (and pile up benefits the private sector can only dream about) and make sure Goldman Sachs employees (the "doing God's work" CEO is only worth $250 million, poor guy) can divvy up $16 billion in ill-gotten gains.

    While they aren't wealthy, many small business owners are comfortable because they scrimped and saved and sacrificed. So when they close their business because it's no longer worth the hassle, the guff, the taxes, the bureaucratic fees and paperwork, then they will survive. The closure of the business will deprive their employees of jobs and the local stripmining machinery (local government) of tax revenues--revenues which cannot be replaced.

    Given the dominance of the financial sector, agribusiness, pharmaceuticals and a hundred other concentrations of capital and political power (cartels), then the individual citizen has literally no choice but to opt out.

    Those who have worked like crazy to net $170,000 will no longer be willing to work that hard so they can pay absurdly high tax rates to support bureaucrats raking in $170,000 a year for going to pre-meetings (or whatever) and public-employee retirees double-dipping (drawing $100K+ pensions and bennies and getting rehired immediately on contract to do the same job they just left.)

    No, thank you, we really don't need to work this hard to support you. We are tired of being serfs. The more you try to tax "the rich," the more "rich" people will opt out.

    Many will be opted out involuntarily. Those who believed the fantasy that sacrificing their lives to make partner or get that corner office will suffer great disillusionment when they are axed without a qualm. They "won't be fooled again." Take your 60-hour a week career, Corporate America, and shove it where the sun doesn't shine.

    Others will be opted out by the structural implosion of the industries they worked in for decades. Just today I saw a man about my age (mid-50s) gathering recycling on our street. I'd seen him sorting through the bins before, so I asked him if he was collecting glass or plastic. Since he was not using a cart, he said, "no glass, just plastic" so I went to get our neighbors' bins of recycling for him.

    Whenever I see a guy or gal collecting recyclables, I think how little separates us.

    In chatting with the gent, I learned that he'd been a carpenter for 25 years, never without work until last year. He was expecting an extension on his unemployment shortly which would enable him to move out of the homeless shelter. He still had his work truck, stored at a friend's house.

    I don't know if construction will ever come back to the point that all the hundreds of thousands of people who made a living in the industry will be employed again. I think not; bubbles don't reinflate.

    The same can be said of millions of people laid off from retail and a hundred other industries. The jobs aren't coming back, regardless of what propaganda is issued by Washington. (Note to Obama White House: start issuing indictments, not more worthless propaganda.)

    2. Millions of households will get by on one salary where they once had two. As the status quo devolves, jobs are starting to disappear even from the so-called "invulnerable" industries like government and healthcare.

    3. Internecine Conflict Between Protected Fiefdoms will intensify. As Federal and local government tax revenues continue plummeting, "tax the rich" schemes will proliferate and promptly backfire. The truly wealthy--the 1/10 of 1% who own some 2/3 of the productive assets of the nation--will buy exemptions or loopholes from their corrupt and venal Congressperson for a mere $100,000 or so. (Even a million is cheap when you're saving $100 million.)

    That leaves the working "rich," those professionals and business owners who have a choice. They can always opt out and just shut down, move to another state or country or cut their business or hours down to subsistence level.

    The more "raise taxes" schemes which are passed into law, the faster tax revenues will drop. Most lower income households pay no tax at all except the 7% FICA/Social Security tax. The "rich" pay almost all the income taxes, and as they opt out tax revenues have nowhere to go but down.

    Stunned that their revenue-enhancement plans have backfired, the various protected fiefdoms (fire departments, cop shops, city hall, school districts, transit districts, universities, "Defense" a.k.a. Global Empire, brought to you by Military-Industrial Complex, Inc., with special guest, Blackwater Associates, Sickcare/Medicare/Medicaid, and so on) will start jockeying to be first in line for the dwindling tax swag.

    Fire departments will start mailing out flyers pleading for extra property taxes lest they have to close a station or three (anything other than take a pay cut or slash their lavish pension/medical bennies) and Police chiefs will exit their chauffeured vehicles a block from the "town meeting" (so they can appear to walk in with appropriate humility) where they will plead for "more cops on the street." (Never mind the PD retirees drawing $100K per year in cash and bennies.)

    The revolving door between "Defense" corporations and the Pentagon will spin even faster as lobbyists sprout like evil weeds, hawking new costly ways to "fight" GWOT (global war on terrorism). "Either pay us now or the nation will be at risk." Yeah, right. Like a $300 million fighter jet has anything to do with GWOT, or "Homeland Security" has anything to do with, well, homeland security.

    Go ahead and nail another "terrorist leader" in the Yemeni wastelands with a high-tech drone missile; did anyone look at the demographics of the region, which is exploding with literally millions of young men devoid of goals and gainful employment? Are high-tech weaponry toys anything other than profit machines for Protected Fiefdoms? Go ask the captains and commanders on the ground before you answer; don't take the word of some overpaid pundit/PR hack/government factotum.

    Sadly for the Protected Fiefdoms, there simply won't be enough money to fund all their fat jobs, fat pensions, fat benefits, fat expense accounts, fat contracts, etc. (The Chinese have simply stopped buying more U.S. Treasuries, by the way; the "pusher" is getting tired of providing endless credit to the junkie, who will soon be experiencing the dread tremors of agonizing withdrawal from credit dependency.)

    That's when the Internecine Conflict begins in earnest. Dark mutterings will turn into angry rants; everything is sacrosanct and must be funded "at all costs": subway and bus service, education, cops, fire department, carbon credits (more on that new Wall Street scam next week), and of course, sickcare--and above it all, the high keening whine that "we were promised this forever and ever," "it's in the contract."

    Check the streetwise reply: "You can't get blood from a turnip."

    The snake can eat its tail for awhile, but at some point the transit agency will rebel at the cost of sickcare "insurance," and so on; each Protected Fiefdom will be sharpening their knives for other Protected Fiefdoms. Politicos, bought and paid for many times over, will find it impossible to reconcile all the demands placed on the fast-dwindling tax swag under their control.

    Like tribes unused to cooperation, no fiefdom will consider negotiating a 25% cut in pay, benefits and pensions for all the fiefdoms; each will seek to eviscerate the budgets of other fiefdoms to protect their own share of the swag. All will fail and the entire government will slip into insolvency. Greed, avarice and blindess have consequences.

    4. The legitimacy of the State and Financial/Corporate Elites has fallen below a fatal tipping point. People will not just max out their credit cards and then stop paying--they will do so with righteous pleasure, confident that they are simply dishing out precisely what the Financial Elites have earned by their own avarice, embezzlement, debauchery of credit, corruption and purchase of political power.

    Citizens will move their business to the underground economy and sign up for "free" government benefits at the same time, feeling that extracting swag from the government (controlled by financial and other Elites for their own benefit) which ignored their interests and offered simulacrum reform rather than real reform is simply a rough sort of justice.

    This is the result of a legitimacy squandered in sycophancy and service to banks, Wall Street, agribusiness, and all the other Elites which rule the government like a puppetmaster controls a puppet.

    Others will shift to the underground economy because they simply can't afford to pay taxes any longer; they need every dollar of income to simply survive. Paying taxes is no longer an option, whether they consider it legitimate or not.

    When the demonstration of angry citizens fills Wall Street, the nervous bankers looking anxiously down and the authorities tasked with protecting the craven Elites will both declare it a "mob;" and perhaps State agents from the Ministry of Propaganda will toss stones through a few windows to solidify that spin in the corporate Mainstream Media.

    5. Popular uprisings will be ignored, written off or downplayed, protest movements will be marginalized by the corporate media, and eventually the State's machinery of repression and subterfuge will crank up to full power. All the tricks of fascist repression deployed in the 1960s to stifle, undermine and repress free speech will be brought back in new, subtler guises: inept black bag jobs are out, there will be no fingerprints or taped doors left this time around. "(snip)

    from
    Last edited by Melonie; 12-29-2009 at 12:10 AM.

  2. #2
    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
    Joined
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    5,493
    Thanks
    120
    Thanked 50 Times in 35 Posts

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    I can step up as someone who has done so. Started my software business in "Silicon Valley" California in 2000. Spent some time there and in 2003 moved out of California because even then it was incredibly hard to keep money in my pockets after making it. I worked long hours getting in before dawn and leaving after dark. There were literally years where I would only see the sun when going out for lunch. So much in taxes I paid. Soon it came to the thought I was merely paying these people so they could come up with new things for me to pay for. And so much of the rest of it was eaten up by California cost of living conditions.

    Finally, one and 1/2 years ago, I put the business into hibernation. I think I will give it one more year, but I suspect that like manufacturing in general, software development has moved on from American shores. I am an educated, upper middle class, job creator who has literally paid half of all my hard work, energy, sacrifices, and ideas to the government in one form or another. I don't really seem to get much out of it - schools are going to shit filling American sponsored institution class rooms with every foreigner possible and indenturing so many kids - KIDS - to nearly half their working lifetimes to paying off tuition bills. And that is if they are lucky enough to work in a field not infested with guest workers - legal or illegal. At least I don't have a $250,000.00+ mortgage hanging over my head like so many others do and some money in the bank.

    Ten years is long enough to watch the decline. I am tired. I have to try twice as hard as everyone else. My employees need to figure out how to make enough money to buy a house or pay their rent. I need to figure out how to make enough money to pay each and every one of them the money to buy a house or pay their rent, you know? It's exhausting - and it's always my money on the line. Tails I lose my money - oh well for you that's capitalism. Heads half of it is taken away from me (and the company) by the government via this board in this county and that council in that state and it goes on and on and on and on. I take all the risks and only half the benefits?

    All the while, these legislators at all levels - county, state, and federal - they come up with literally 100s of thousands of new laws EVERY YEAR. All which lead to another 2x fold of regulations and fees. A friend runs a small day care center out of her home. It was a time when she would take them out to the beach to run around and splash in the water. New regulation: One has to hire a life guard. OK, she says, I will get trained as a life guard. Oh no, it doesn't work that way - there also has to be at least 1 care giver per number of children and they cannot be the lifeguard. Rules you know.

    So basically the kids will get fat sitting in front of the TV that much more removed from the world. Of course, the other options are to increase rates to pay for a lifeguard or tell parents their children are no longer welcome because government regulation requires one of the care givers be allocated to the the life guard position. She is getting older and there is more bullshit every year for her industry (don't get into anything that has to do with kids) and is seriously thinking about closing the doors.

    I had hoped I could sell my business, but I don't think that is an option. I will simply clear out my loans to the company with its assets and call it a wash.

    But what really saddens me, is that I had the lifeguard conversation with another couple - the father was like "that's ridiculous." But the wife was all for it. It's "for the children" you know.

    Airline travel has become so regulated I won't fly anymore. And now with this underwear bomber - I can only imagine the pain endured by the customers. And we give up all these freedoms and are trotted around like criminals taking off our shoes and shit for the illusion of security. (Want airport security? Pull all our troops out of the middle east. Stop sending money to anyone in the middle east. Start profiling.)

    The point I am trying to make is that I see around me - people oblivious to what all this is coming to. I think we are about to experience what the USSR did. I am not saying "believe." I am saying "think." I am a pretty smart person, but I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to see what is coming down the line.

    I mean, there were plenty of posters before the great crash - Katrina - and whomever else. I didn't pay much attention to them. She at least was studying business finance so I took her words into contemplation. But they all were "you're so crazy" - and I was like "Watch. This shit is coming down." Well - it sure in the hell did. The bust of the greatest boom ever is being compared to the Great Depression.

    I tell ya what - I was a lot more pessimistic then, than I am now.

    I am not sure how we are going to get there. The Katrina hurricane certainly opened some eyes. That place is still a wasteland. So ecological disasters here and there - there just won't be any picking up from that like it was before. Planned executions of cops occuring more frequently and in different areas of the country. States contemplating the release of felons by the thousands.

    I was in the army in the early 90's - I came out quite disillusioned joining for the protection of the United States and basically being sold out as a mercenary for a filthy rich actual monarch (how anti-democratic can you get?) and his lying bitch of a daughter (the children - they are taking the incubators from the children - do it for the children!) Now that Al Qaida is active in Somolia, Pakistan, Yemen and europe is becoming more and more infested with Jihadi's while our soldiers fight in "hill billy armor" and come home to foreclosures, missing jobs, and books filled regulations on how to get paid... damn. Sooner or later there is going to be organization.

    Fuck it, I don't even want to write this. Before, it was just money you know? Now, now we are approaching a crisis of survival. How to feed the kids? Where to live? How to make some money? There is such structural change happening.

  3. #3
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    Fuck it, I don't even want to write this. Before, it was just money you know? Now, now we are approaching a crisis of survival. How to feed the kids? Where to live? How to make some money? There is such structural change happening.
    I hear you in this regard. In my own case, I also decided that personal action was warranted in order to avoid having to fork over ~50% of my income as taxes. Of course my choice of action limited my ability to visit family and friends in the USA to about 4 weeks per year, but IMHO that's a small price to pay in comparison to being able to keep the 'lions share' of my investment earnings and truly retire versus having to fork over at least 30% of my earnings in the form of one tax or another and continue working to make up for the difference in taxes and cost of living. When I first moved south of the border I was concerned about the potential for civil unrest / violence. However, in realistic terms, I'm probably safer here than I was in New York ( and I'm certainly better armed and able to deal with any such possibility )!

    As to your larger point, I agree that there is major structural change taking place. But for better or worse, the majority of US mainstream media and 'average' Americans still fail to recognize that structural change. So far this has been possible by the FED / Treasury 'papering over' the widening structural gaps, as well as by the gov't extending social welfare benefits, unemployment extensions, COBRA subsidies, etc. such that unemployed Americans can still 'dream' that this is just another downturn and that things will return to 'normal' next year. But in the absence of a miracle, federal and state budget deficits / tax revenue shortfalls will force an end to the ever extended emergency unemployment benefits and the 'new' public sector stimulus jobs at the state and local level in 2010. This will then result in most unemployed Americans, including 'permanently' unemployed Americans (i.e. professional social welfare benefit recipients), being dealt a reduction / elimination of gov't funded benefits.

    As the above link author points out, it would appear that 2010 will finally bring an unavoidable dose of financial reality. In fact, here's another treatise along the same lines ... but with some very disturbing observations regarding the 'average' Americans of the 1030's versus the 'average' Americans of 2010.


    (snip)"The Year Ahead

    Just about everything which evaded fate via gamed numbers, budgets, and balance sheets in 2009 seems destined to hit a wall in 2010. To pick an arbitrary starting point, it is hard to see how states like California and New York can keep staving off monumental changes in their scale of operations with further budget trickery. Those cans they've been kicking down the street have fallen through the sewer grate. What will they do? They can massively raise taxes or massively lay off employees and default on obligations - or they can do all these things. The net result will be populations with less income, arguably impoverished, suffering, and perhaps very angry about it. Welcome to reality. Will Washington bail the states out, too? I wouldn't be surprised to see them pretend to do so, but not without immense collateral damage in everybody's legitimacy and surely an increase in US treasury interest rates.

    But backing up a moment, I'm writing between Christmas and New Year's Eve. The frenzied distractions of the holidays ongoing for much of Q4-2009 are still in force. In a week or so, when the Christmas trees are hauled out to the curbs (and it turns out that municipal garbage pickup has been curtailed for lack of funds) a picture will start to emerge of exactly how retail sales went leading up to the big climax. My guess is that sales were dismal. Reports of such will start a train of events that sends many retail companies careening into bankruptcy, including some national chains, leading to lost leases in malls and strip malls, leading to a final push off the cliff for commercial real estate, leading to the failure of many local and regional banks, leading to the bankrupt FDIC having to go to congress directly to get more money to bail out the depositors, leading again to rising interest rates for US treasuries, leading to higher mortgage interest rates for whoever out there is crazy enough to venture to buy a house with borrowed money, leading to the probability that there are few of the foregoing, leading to another hard leg down in house values because so few are now crazy enough to buy a house in the face of falling prices - all of this leading to the recognition that we have entered a serious depression, which is only a facet of the greater period of hardship we have also entered, which I call The Long Emergency.

    This depression will be a classic deleveraging, or resolution of debt. Debt will either be paid back or defaulted on. Since a lot can't be paid back, a lot of it will have to be defaulted on, which will make a lot of money disappear, which will make many people a lot poorer. President Obama will be faced with a basic choice. He can either make the situation worse by offering more bailouts and similar moves aimed at stopping the deleveraging process - that is, continue what he has been doing, only perhaps twice as much, which may crash the system more rapidly - or he can recognize the larger trends in The Long Emergency and begin marshalling our remaining collective resources to restructure the economy along less complex and more local lines. Don't count on that.

    Of course, this downscaling will happen whether we want it or not. It's really a matter of whether we go along with it consciously and intelligently - or just let things slide. Paradoxically and unfortunately in this situation, the federal government is apt to become ever more ineffectual in its ability to manage anything, no matter how many times Mr. Obama comes on television. Does this leave him as a kind of national camp counselor trying to offer consolation to the suffering American people, without being able to really affect the way the "workout" works out? Was Franklin Roosevelt really much more than an affable presence on the radio in a dark time that had to take its course and was only resolved by a global convulsion that left the USA standing in a smoldering field of prostrate losers?

    One wild card is how angry the American people might get. Unlike the 1930s, we are no longer a nation who call each other "Mister" and "Ma'am," where even the down-and-out wear neckties and speak a discernible variant of regular English, where hoboes say "thank you," and where, in short, there is something like a common culture of shared values. We're a nation of thugs and louts with flames tattooed on our necks, who call each other "motherfucker" and are skilled only in playing video games based on mass murder. The masses of Roosevelt's time were coming off decades of programmed, regimented work, where people showed up in well-run factories and schools and pretty much behaved themselves. In my view, that's one of the reasons that the US didn't explode in political violence during the Great Depression of the 1930s - the discipline and fortitude of the citizenry. The sheer weight of demoralization now is so titanic that it is very hard to imagine the people of the USA pulling together for anything beyond the most superficial ceremonies - placing teddy bears on a crash site. And forget about discipline and fortitude in a nation of ADD victims and self-esteem seekers.

    I believe we will see the outbreak of civil disturbance at many levels in 2010. One will be plain old crime against property and persons, especially where the sense of community is flimsy-to-nonexistent, and that includes most of suburban America. The automobile is a fabulous aid to crime. People can commit crimes in Skokie and be back home in Racine before supper (if supper is anything besides a pepperoni stick and some Hostess Ho-Hos in the car). Fewer police will be on guard due to budget shortfalls."(snip)

    (snip)"Conclusions

    The Long Emergency is officially underway. Reality is telling us very clearly to prepare for a new way of life in the USA. We're in desperate need of decomplexifying, re-localizing, downscaling, and re-humanizing American life. It doesn't mean that we will be a lesser people or that we will not recognize our own culture. In some respects, I think it means we must return to some traditional American life-ways that we abandoned for the cheap oil life of convenience, comfort, obesity, and social atomization.

    The successful people in America moving forward will be those who attach themselves to cohesive local communities, places with integral local economies and sturdy social networks, especially places that can produce a significant amount of their own food. I don't think that we'll be living in a world without money, some medium of exchange above barter, but it may not come in the form of dollars. My guess is that for a while it may be gold and silver, or possibly certificates issued by bank-like institutions representing gold-on-hand. In any case, I doubt we'll arrive there this year. This is more likely to be the year of grand monetary disorders and continued shocking economic contraction.

    Political upheaval can get underway pretty quickly, without a whole lot of warning. I'm still waiting to hear the announced 2009 bonuses for the employees of the TBTF banks. All they said before Christmas was that thirty top Goldman Sachs employees would be paid in stock instead of money this year, but no other big banks have made a peep yet. I suppose they'll have to in the four days before New Years. I still think that could be the moment that shoves some disgruntled Americans into the arena of protest and revolt. Beyond that, though, there is plenty room for emotions to run wild and for behavior to get weird.

    President Obama will have to make some pretty drastic moves to salvage his credibility. I see no sign of any intention to seriously investigate or prosecute financial crimes. Yet the evidence of misdeeds piles higher and higher - just this week new comprehensive reports of Goldman Sachs's irregularities in shorting their own issues of mortgage-backed securities, and a report on the Treasury Department's issuance of treasuries to "back-door" dumpers of toxic mortgage backed securities. And on Christmas Eve, when nobody was looking, the Treasury lifted the ceiling on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's backstop money to infinity. Even people like me who try to pay close attention to what's going on have lost track of all the various TARPs, TALFs, bailouts, stimuli, ZIRP loans, and handovers to every bank and its uncle in the land.

    Good luck to readers in 2010. To paraphrase Tiny Tim: God help us, every one...."(snip)

    from

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 12-29-2009 at 06:44 AM.

  4. #4
    God/dess
    Joined
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    7,964
    Thanks
    6,155
    Thanked 10,183 Times in 4,602 Posts

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post

    1. Millions of productive citizens will opt out, voluntarily or involuntarily. Millions of small business owners will get tired of paying taxes so thousands of Federal bureaucrats can "earn" $170,000 a year (and pile up benefits the private sector can only dream about) and make sure Goldman Sachs employees (the "doing God's work" CEO is only worth $250 million, poor guy) can divvy up $16 billion in ill-gotten gains.

    While they aren't wealthy, many small business owners are comfortable because they scrimped and saved and sacrificed. So when they close their business because it's no longer worth the hassle, the guff, the taxes, the bureaucratic fees and paperwork, then they will survive. The closure of the business will deprive their employees of jobs and the local stripmining machinery (local government) of tax revenues--revenues which cannot be replaced.

    Given the dominance of the financial sector, agribusiness, pharmaceuticals and a hundred other concentrations of capital and political power (cartels), then the individual citizen has literally no choice but to opt out.

    Those who have worked like crazy to net $170,000 will no longer be willing to work that hard so they can pay absurdly high tax rates to support bureaucrats raking in $170,000 a year for going to pre-meetings (or whatever) and public-employee retirees double-dipping (drawing $100K+ pensions and bennies and getting rehired immediately on contract to do the same job they just left.)

    No, thank you, we really don't need to work this hard to support you. We are tired of being serfs. The more you try to tax "the rich," the more "rich" people will opt out.
    Why weren't all of these rich people opting out in the 1950's when the top tax rate was 90%? Conservatives act as if taxes are at record highs when the reality is, they're pretty low compared to how high taxes have been in the past.

    I doubt that most federal workers earn anywhere near $170,000 a year. Many comparable jobs in private sector pay much better than in the government sector. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff commands over a million men in the military, but I'm sure his salary isn't anywhere near that of many CEO's who have far fewer employees under them.

  5. #5
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    Why weren't all of these rich people opting out in the 1950's when the top tax rate was 90%? Conservatives act as if taxes are at record highs when the reality is, they're pretty low compared to how high taxes have been in the past
    keep dreaming !!! in the 1950's nobody at the IRS was poking around rich people's Swiss bank accounts, Cayman Islands tax shelters, trusts etc. Just as there is a huge discrepancy between 'official' gov't statistics for unemployment / GDP / inflation and the 'real world' figures, a similar huge discrepancy existed between the 'official' income tax rate and the 'real world' effective tax rate actually paid by 'rich' people. And of course there was also the small issue of most of the 1950's world economy still being blown to hell as a leftover from WW2, which severely limited offshore options for Americans.

    Also, federal and state income taxes aren't the only significant taxes. Property taxes have increased ridiculously since the 1950's. Sales taxes didn't exist at all in the 1950's.

  6. #6
    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
    Joined
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    5,493
    Thanks
    120
    Thanked 50 Times in 35 Posts

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post

    I doubt that most federal workers earn anywhere near $170,000 a year. Many comparable jobs in private sector pay much better than in the government sector. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff commands over a million men in the military, but I'm sure his salary isn't anywhere near that of many CEO's who have far fewer employees under them.

    She may have been overly enthusiastic in her numbers, but it is an interesting trend (where average federal pay is 30K higher than private industry):

  7. #7
    Senior Member msincredible01's Avatar
    Joined
    May 2008
    Location
    CandyLand
    Posts
    181
    Thanks
    137
    Thanked 156 Times in 61 Posts
    My Mood
    Fine

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    I've been learning in school about peak oil, Hubbarts peak theory, economic and food shortage trends. I took an art aesthetics class last semester where my hippy professor explained to us the potential coming doom. It left me extremely paranoid for weeks; I've considered buying a few gold coins, spend less and spend more wisely and inform myself more.

    How should dancers save and spend their money? My 22 year old co-worker and friend just bought her first house..paid $172,000 with a $40,000 downpayment by herself, no boyfriend or husband in the picture. What should young single homeowners be preparing for? Losing their house? Is anyone actually preparing themselves and their finances for what apparently lays ahead?

  8. #8
    God/dess hockeybobby's Avatar
    Joined
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    4,969
    Thanks
    1,811
    Thanked 597 Times in 382 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    Another uber-capitalist, Atlas Shrugged wet dream. "You don't appreciate us rich folk, but you'll all be fucked when we take our hockey sticks and go home!". Newsflash - nobody cares. The American Dream is all about making your stash and fading off into the sunset to enjoy your life....so do it. Spare the rest of us the arrogance and self-absorption.

    Quote Originally Posted by msincredible01 View Post
    How should dancers save and spend their money? My 22 year old co-worker and friend just bought her first house..paid $172,000 with a $40,000 downpayment by herself, no boyfriend or husband in the picture. What should young single homeowners be preparing for? Losing their house? Is anyone actually preparing themselves and their finances for what apparently lays ahead?
    Get up and go to work. Save 10% of every dollar you make. Live within your means. These things are tried and true. There is nothing to be gained by living in fear, and thinking scary thoughts. All that happens is you suffer. Greet every day with cheerfulness. Ignore all the chicken littles.

  9. The Following User Says Thank You to hockeybobby For This Useful Post:


  10. #9
    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2006
    Location
    NYC
    Posts
    5,150
    Thanks
    1,261
    Thanked 1,430 Times in 888 Posts

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    Why weren't all of these rich people opting out in the 1950's when the top tax rate was 90%? Conservatives act as if taxes are at record highs when the reality is, they're pretty low compared to how high taxes have been in the past.

    I doubt that most federal workers earn anywhere near $170,000 a year. Many comparable jobs in private sector pay much better than in the government sector. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff commands over a million men in the military, but I'm sure his salary isn't anywhere near that of many CEO's who have far fewer employees under them.
    Melonie is right. The rich NEVER paid 90%. Instead they sheltered their income and off-shored it. Not just in Switzerland. Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, the Cayman Islands and the Channel Islands all welcomed billions in American money into private anonymous accounts. At the same time, there were dozens of deductions and credits that the rich used to avoid taxes. Before Reagan, Bradley and Gephardt simplified the Tax Code in 1986 it was a sieve.

    You used to be right aboujt Federal pay. Not anymore. Today the AVERAGE Federal worker gets over $70,000 per year. The average private sector worker gets a little over $40,000. And Obama has radically expanded the ranks of G.S.15's and above who make over $150,000 per year.
    That's WITHOUT including generous benefits - 30 paid vacation days; sick leave; health care and a nice pension.

  11. #10
    God/dess
    Joined
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    7,964
    Thanks
    6,155
    Thanked 10,183 Times in 4,602 Posts

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    The rich never paid 90% in taxes but they paid more in the 1950's than they do today. I remember reading that in the 1950's, on average, the wealthiest Americans paid approximately 50% of their income to federal income taxes. Today, on average, the wealthiest Americans pay approximately 22% of their income to federal income taxes.

  12. #11
    God/dess
    Joined
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    7,964
    Thanks
    6,155
    Thanked 10,183 Times in 4,602 Posts

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by msincredible01 View Post
    I've been learning in school about peak oil, Hubbarts peak theory, economic and food shortage trends. I took an art aesthetics class last semester where my hippy professor explained to us the potential coming doom. It left me extremely paranoid for weeks; I've considered buying a few gold coins, spend less and spend more wisely and inform myself more.

    How should dancers save and spend their money? My 22 year old co-worker and friend just bought her first house..paid $172,000 with a $40,000 downpayment by herself, no boyfriend or husband in the picture. What should young single homeowners be preparing for? Losing their house? Is anyone actually preparing themselves and their finances for what apparently lays ahead?
    I wouldn't pay much attention to those that predict only doom and gloom. There have been economic downturns before, and each time the economy recovered. Each time things have gotten bad in the past, there were always pessimists saying, "this time it's permanent", yet things got better each time. The perma-bears already missed out on huge gains in the stock market last year. I expect that 10 years from now, we will have a booming economy and full employment, even labor shortages, as large numbers of baby boomers retire, opening jobs for millions of younger Americans.
    Last edited by eagle2; 01-28-2010 at 12:20 AM.

  13. #12
    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
    Joined
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    5,493
    Thanks
    120
    Thanked 50 Times in 35 Posts

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    For the last three years unemployment has been going up, pensions have been raided, 401Ks have been dashed, illegal immigrants have taken low skill jobs while guest workers who never leave have taken the higher end jobs. Manufacturing is outsourced more and more as well service jobs are going over seas.

    Mean while, the stock market has gone up a bit but has dropped right back down and main street America has since learned when the DOW owners make money it has nothing to do with them making any.

    There is a point where it is a trend and a function of the structure of the country's economic system. There is little forecasting or voodoo involved in knowing where this is going.

  14. #13
    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
    Joined
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    5,493
    Thanks
    120
    Thanked 50 Times in 35 Posts

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    Anyhow, on topic - live frugally and in your means. That is first and foremost preparation. When picking things up, don't let it be a whim. Make sure it is durable. Figure out how many things you can do with the same item (it can kinda be a game.) Get a gun and learn how to use it. Learn how to trade and barter (as in who is willing to do it and the infrastructure.)

    Get registered to vote and write those letters and support those campaigns you believe in.

  15. #14
    God/dess
    Joined
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    7,964
    Thanks
    6,155
    Thanked 10,183 Times in 4,602 Posts

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    I agree. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

  16. #15
    God/dess
    Joined
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    7,964
    Thanks
    6,155
    Thanked 10,183 Times in 4,602 Posts

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Deogol View Post
    For the last three years unemployment has been going up, pensions have been raided, 401Ks have been dashed, illegal immigrants have taken low skill jobs while guest workers who never leave have taken the higher end jobs. Manufacturing is outsourced more and more as well service jobs are going over seas.
    I agree things don't look good now and probably won't greatly improve for some time, but there are some long term trends that look favorable. As India and China become more industrialized and their standard of living improves, their cost of labor will increase, giving them less of a cost advantage. This is especially true in China with their one-child policy. In the US, the situation for labor will improve as many baby boomers retire. In the year 2000, there was one person leaving the work force for every 10 who entered. In the 2020's, there will be 10 people leaving the work force for every person who enters. Even in Mexico, the birth rate has declined significantly, which will mean far fewer illegal immigrants in the future.

    http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=062807C

  17. #16
    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2006
    Location
    NYC
    Posts
    5,150
    Thanks
    1,261
    Thanked 1,430 Times in 888 Posts

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    The rich never paid 90% in taxes but they paid more in the 1950's than they do today. I remember reading that in the 1950's, on average, the wealthiest Americans paid approximately 50% of their income to federal income taxes. Today, on average, the wealthiest Americans pay approximately 22% of their income to federal income taxes.
    True BUT. You ignore the explosion of state and local taxes since the 50's. So many formerly low tax states like N.J., Vermont and( believe it or not) California are now high tax states. The "rich" paid 50 % of their income with all the inefficiencies of a system designed to promote sheltering instead of work, savings and investment.However the % of Federal Income taxes paid by the rich NOW is HIGHER than it was in the 50's. A lot of Americans don't pay ANY Federal Income Tax. You're also forgetting higher Social Security Taxes; raised several times since the 1950's.

    Rather than quibble, why not join in supporting a Flat Tax so that the "rich" would start paying MORE than 22 % of their income in taxes ? John and Theresa Kerry make something like $ 5 million a year and pay 12% in taxes. They are far from unique. I join you in thinking it's outrageous for Hedge Fund Managers to pay Capital Gains Rates on millions in income. Some of the hardest fighters against changing the tax treatment of "carry income" are the DEMOCRATS in Congress.

  18. #17
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    Is anyone actually preparing themselves and their finances for what apparently lays ahead?
    yup ... I moved myself and most of my nest egg investments 'south of the border' !


    As India and China become more industrialized and their standard of living improves, their cost of labor will increase, giving them less of a cost advantage
    This is true but of limited value. As long as India and China have essentially zero environmental compliance costs, essentially zero mandatory employee benefit costs, essentially zero employee retirement benefit costs, essentially zero product liability / litigation costs etc. you're really talking about comparing a present day 4:1 cost premium for US labor to a future 3:1 or maybe even someday 2:1 cost premium for US labor. Thus US industries will become less UNcompetitive but never actually competitive on a global basis.


    Anyhow, on topic - live frugally and in your means. That is first and foremost preparation.
    agreed. Now is NOT the time to make any sort of long term financial commitments i.e. buying a home or a new car.

  19. #18
    God/dess Paris's Avatar
    Joined
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Oregon
    Posts
    6,345
    Thanks
    168
    Thanked 801 Times in 419 Posts

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    There is a new reality working here. Just like good old fashioned penicillin doesn't cure anything anymore, the economy has radically evolved and has become an entirely different entity, today.

    This is what has everyone in a panic. I've been thinking about the economics of contraction for a long time, and trying to make something expand that just doesn't want to is what is causing these stupid bubbles in the 1st place. Every economic model in recent history is based on an ever expanding market, and I think we may have hit maximum capacity some time ago.

    People who can negotiate short sales in any industry are the ones that will come out on top. I see an ongoing long term trend downward in most sectors. Get used to it.


    Promote yourself and earn more money! This is a business that is owned by strippers for strippers. Let's make that money!


  20. #19
    God/dess
    Joined
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    7,964
    Thanks
    6,155
    Thanked 10,183 Times in 4,602 Posts

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    True BUT. You ignore the explosion of state and local taxes since the 50's. So many formerly low tax states like N.J., Vermont and( believe it or not) California are now high tax states. The "rich" paid 50 % of their income with all the inefficiencies of a system designed to promote sheltering instead of work, savings and investment.However the % of Federal Income taxes paid by the rich NOW is HIGHER than it was in the 50's. A lot of Americans don't pay ANY Federal Income Tax. You're also forgetting higher Social Security Taxes; raised several times since the 1950's.
    There are still a number of states with no income tax. California probably has the lowest, or among the lowest, property taxes in the country, which is why their other taxes are so high.

    The reason why the wealthiest Americans pay a higher percentage of income tax today is because their income and wealth has grown at a much higher rate than the rest of Americans.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Rather than quibble, why not join in supporting a Flat Tax so that the "rich" would start paying MORE than 22 % of their income in taxes ? John and Theresa Kerry make something like $ 5 million a year and pay 12% in taxes. They are far from unique. I join you in thinking it's outrageous for Hedge Fund Managers to pay Capital Gains Rates on millions in income. Some of the hardest fighters against changing the tax treatment of "carry income" are the DEMOCRATS in Congress.
    I'm sure you'll disagree, but I think a progressive tax rate is more fair than a flat tax. People with higher incomes can afford to pay higher tax rates. I don't think it would be fair to ask someone at or below the poverty level to be paying the same rate as people with multi-million dollar incomes. I do agree we should do more about the unfair situations you mentioned above.

  21. #20
    Banned ArmySGT.'s Avatar
    Joined
    May 2005
    Location
    SW Counter Troll HQ
    Posts
    5,582
    Thanks
    1,589
    Thanked 1,674 Times in 1,043 Posts
    Blog Entries
    13
    My Mood
    Amused

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by msincredible01 View Post
    I've been learning in school about peak oil, Hubbarts peak theory, economic and food shortage trends. I took an art aesthetics class last semester where my hippy professor explained to us the potential coming doom. It left me extremely paranoid for weeks; I've considered buying a few gold coins, spend less and spend more wisely and inform myself more.

    How should dancers save and spend their money? My 22 year old co-worker and friend just bought her first house..paid $172,000 with a $40,000 downpayment by herself, no boyfriend or husband in the picture. What should young single homeowners be preparing for? Losing their house? Is anyone actually preparing themselves and their finances for what apparently lays ahead?
    Buy the Gold coins, and buy pre-1964 small coins these are real silver. Plan your purchases buy them before you need them at discount rates. Example you will need a winter coat, buy this in the spring when places are closing out seasonal merchandise. Eat at home, and take a lunch to work.

    If you want a home. Consider forming a real estate holding company with a friend pool your money and buy a duplex or triplex. The holding company owns it and you rent. the rent makes the payments for the holding company. You get to neatly turn expenses into deductions and friends can buy out an new ones can buy in.

    Food. We saw what happened with the biodiesel fiasco. Any major city is three meals from food riots and looting. Having a pantry of goods that you rotate through (FIFO- first in, first out). You buy extra for a week, and then add a week when you can afford it. It is another kind of insurance. Worked for my brother when the saw mill closed his family lived off their pantry until he qualified for retraining. He is fast replacing the six month supply he has room for.

    get rid of the expensive glitzy car and get one cheaper to drive and maintain.

    Pay your savings account first, bills second. Not saying get thrown out of your house but, something can wait and you will not get the time back if you neglect your own nest egg.

    The google search word would be "Preparedness".

  22. #21
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    People with higher incomes can afford to pay higher tax rates. I don't think it would be fair to ask someone at or below the poverty level to be paying the same rate as people with multi-million dollar incomes.
    Actually, the first 100 years of US tax history follow a very different premise ... i.e. per capita apportionment.

    Putting this in present day context ...

    the actual costs to gov't to provide public education to a family with 2 school age children do not change if the family earns $20k or $200k or $2mil a year. Actually, in the latter case, cost to gov't probably goes down as the children are very probably attending private schools.

    the actual costs to gov't to provide police / criminal justice services to a family of 4 do not change if the family earns $20k or $200k or $2mil a year. Actually, the former case probably costs the gov't more because the probability of criminal activity / incarceration is much higher.

    the actual costs to gov't to provide fire protection / emergency medical response services to a family of 4 do not change if the family earns $20k or $200k or $2mil a year. Again the former case probably costs the gov't more because the probability of 'firetrap' housing / violent injury is much higher.

    the actual costs to gov't to provide 'national defense' services are precisely equal

    the actual costs to gov't to provide 'social' services is far higher for the family earning $20k per year.

    In other words, in keeping with the original constitutional principle, every American family should really be apportioned the same amount of dollar cost to pay for these services. Obviously, given today's level of services, this is a real world impossibility since the actual costs of services being provided to the family earning $20k per year costs more than their entire annual income !!! This situation, however, did not really begin until FDR's 1930's programs ... and greatly accelerated under LBJ's 1960's programs.


    Putting this fundamental change in proper historical perspective, prior to the 1913 institution of the income tax and 1930's institution of 'social' benefits provided by the gov't, the 'scope' of US gov't services was restrained by the fact that every US citizen could / would wind up sharing in the costs of any US gov't services. This tended to keep the size of gov't small, and tended to keep the 'scope' of gov't limited ( to areas such as national defense ). However, once the fundamental change occurred i.e. some US citizens were able to receive a share of US gov't services WITHOUT having to pay for any of the actual costs involved ( with that cost being shifted to other US citizens ), both the size and 'scope' of gov't was able to start growing exponentially.

    Thus the author's basic point ... that the size and 'scope' of today's gov't / gov't services is no longer sustainable because it is increasingly difficult for the gov't to continue shifting ever greater costs of gov't operation / gov't benefits onto an ever shrinking group of higher earning citizens.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 01-30-2010 at 05:01 PM.

  23. #22
    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2006
    Location
    NYC
    Posts
    5,150
    Thanks
    1,261
    Thanked 1,430 Times in 888 Posts

    Default Re: "Survival Trends' for 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    There are still a number of states with no income tax. California probably has the lowest, or among the lowest, property taxes in the country, which is why their other taxes are so high.

    The reason why the wealthiest Americans pay a higher percentage of income tax today is because their income and wealth has grown at a much higher rate than the rest of Americans.



    I'm sure you'll disagree, but I think a progressive tax rate is more fair than a flat tax. People with higher incomes can afford to pay higher tax rates. I don't think it would be fair to ask someone at or below the poverty level to be paying the same rate as people with multi-million dollar incomes. I do agree we should do more about the unfair situations you mentioned above.
    In the abstract I might agree with you. As a practical matter, a flat or at least flatter tax would actually get the rich to pay their fair share. Under our present "progressive" system they do not. As I and Melonie have well documented. Btw, even though I support lower Tax RATES, I part company with many of my conservative brethren and support a reasonable and fair inheritance tax. With a large multi-million dollar exemption. Isn't it odd ( I find it highly instructive ) that when you look at the inheritors of great wealth who went into politics ( the Kennedys, the Rockefellers, Kohl, Metzenbaum) that NONE of them made any money on their own ? Of the three Kennedy boys only JFK EVER held a private sector job. The later generations ( Joe, RFK Jr., Kerry ) are even worse. Those fortunes dissipated because nobody picked up the cudgels and WORKED to add to or even maintain it. JFK Jr. was a Bouvier more than a Kennedy and his foray into private business ( remember "George" magazine ? ) was a miserable failure. I always found it passing strange that while many of these folks commendably do charity work and are very good at giving away their family fortunes, NONE of them seem to able to remember HOW those fortunes were created in the first place. Somebody had to work, save, invest and take risks to create those fortunes. Many, like Ted, seemed to spend their entire careers trying to create conditions tha would inhibit anyone from being able to build a fortune like his Daddy did.

    California has one of the highest overall tax burdens in the country which is why they are going bankrupt. Our most prosperous states generally have the lowest overall tax burdens.

    The bottom line is that we cannot tax our way to prosperity and Obama's attempts to spend our way there haven't worked.

Similar Threads

  1. Survival of the fittest
    By tempest666 in forum The Lounge
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 12-02-2008, 10:36 PM
  2. Survival skills
    By SundayMorning in forum The Lounge
    Replies: 42
    Last Post: 01-06-2008, 04:52 AM
  3. PMS Survival Tips
    By gameover in forum General Board
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 03-31-2007, 06:51 AM
  4. survival of the richest
    By miss marina in forum The Lounge
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 03-31-2006, 06:49 PM
  5. Survival Tips
    By MojoJojo in forum The Lounge
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 04-24-2005, 08:26 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •