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Thread: 16 Geopolitical Megatrends

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    Default 16 Geopolitical Megatrends

    http://www.oilprice.com/article-chan...your-life.html

    "If we are looking at the matter of energy security in a transforming and unstable global framework, it is necessary to outline what that “transforming global framework” might entail. Some of what we will face will include the following:

    1. Globalization is dead, and heightened nationalism and xenophobia, hallmarked by draconian political correctness (a heightened sense of narrowly-defined populist conformity), is returning to take its place, at least for a period of transition through the collapse or total reframing of global society. This entails a revival of protectionist policies, and new forms of what is essentially racism and other forms of chauvinism (ie: distrust and distaste for anyone who isn’t “us”), as societies and nations rush to protect themselves from their neighbours and, particularly, to protect themselves from the great and predatory powers, including the US;

    2. Democracy, as the West has evolved it in recent decades, is also dead, already replaced by the “guided stewardship” of professional politicians and bureaucrats. Elected and bureaucratic officials who, overwhelmingly, have never been self-employed or worked in private enterprise, increasingly not only fail to protect the interests of the society as a whole, but actually fear and distrust the competition of free minds and entrepreneurs, and anything else which they cannot control. As a result, Western societies are polarizing into those members who produce and those who govern;

    3. Personal freedom, the phenomenon which actually legitimizes democracy, has been dead or dying, or increasingly rare, for some time. Its rediscovery, and with it the phenomenon of true leadership and naturally-respected hierarchy, will be the thing which rebuilds societies;

    4. Human numbers are set to decline significantly, with profound effects on stability, and on social and economic values. Throughout history, population levels have grown gradually but then have fallen dramatically and precipitously. Global population numbers have grown by more than four-billion since 1950, and are nearing their peak.1 They are still climbing, albeit with flattening growth rates, and will begin to decline by about 2035, but possibly much sooner. The decline, through lifespan reduction, poverty-assisted reductions, pandemics, and conflict, will neither be or-derly, entirely predictable as to pattern, nor will it be “civilized”. This will significantly affect asset values, political stability, population movement, and much more;

    5. Global wealth is part of the problem. Massive strides in global wealth — along with the temporarily still-rising human numbers and urbanization — are accelerating the speed with which we approach the pivotal or junction point. The massive human flood toward urbanization, provoked by simultaneous human population growth and rising per capita wealth, transforming what society needs and wants, has already begun to accelerate the turning point of human society, pointing to the new confluence of trends which will see entire nation-states become non-viable almost overnight in their present form. A reactionary move toward de-urbanization is already beginning in many parts of the world, such as mainland China;

    6. The rush toward dysfunctional and inadequate responses. Governments — politicians and bureaucrats — are, in their desire to retain power, attempting to control the growing global dysfunction by applying old, or ill-considered, remedies. They employ measures such as direct cash stimulation to stave off economic disaster, rather than giving control back to the true marketplace, allowing (and encouraging) the creation of food and industrial production to re-establish balanced societies. “Creative destruction” or collapse is feared. The panaceas which are being dispensed at present in fact compound the devaluation of assets, and particularly currency, given that “trust” is the basis of currency and asset value, and trust is a psychological condition.

    7. Old institutions fail; new ones are not affordable. Virtually all post-World War II transnational institutions, such as the United Nations (UN) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), are already effectively defunct. And just as they need replacing, or reshaping, the funds for major international initiatives have evaporated.

    8. Rising informal conflict and tides of human movement. The new threats are not so much un-controlled nuclear warfare, but primitive warfare, and the breakdown in international law and order. Global population movements will begin as whole groups attempt to flee economic or environ-mental decline or disaster. That process is already underway. This population movement will be from disaster areas to more stable and wealthier areas, a process which will transform disaster areas into black holes, and wealthier and stable areas into poorer and less stable areas. Thus, countries such as the US, Australia, Western Europe, New Zealand, and so on, will become targets for upsurges in illegal immigration and crime. Countries such as Pakistan, already overwhelmed by illegal immigrants from the 1980s (and the criminal activities they have inspired), will face life-or-death battles to preserve stability.

    9. An end to the systematic growth in scientific learning and innovation. Human civilization has been a process in which tools of learning — both physical and intellectual — have been built one atop another. Where learning becomes distorted, particularly due to the political correctness of dogmatic belief systems, or through poverty, the growth in scientific progress declines. With declining productivity comes the declining ability of societies to fend for themselves, and provide food and wealth. This in turn transforms population patterns, and creates “dark ages”, such as we witnessed with the collapse of the Western Roman Empire.

    10. The peaking and decline of urbanization. The decline of wealth, even for relatively short periods, spells an end to the massive movement toward the urbanization of human societies around the world. Urbanization, which peaked in 2008, was already showing signs in 2009 of declining in key countries, such as the People’s Republic of China, as disenchanted — and potentially starving — urban dwellers began the trek back to subsistence agricultural communities. What had been lit-tle realized was that urbanization was a by product of wealth and the dream of wealth. It is intellectual and scientific wealth which has always underpinned, facilitated (and compounded) urbanization since the time of the creation of agriculture.

    11. Declining urbanization and shrinking populations will affect asset valuation. Shrinking population levels in cities, due to general population decline and to de-urbanization, will see the transformation of property and other asset values, and ultimately will see the rearrangement of perceptions of values and priorities in general. The critical junction point will come where some societies lose the critical mass to produce the essential services of modern life, which are essentially energy-driven and technology-based. The global economic downturn of 2009 also demonstrated the reality that declining perceived value in real estate, particularly in urban areas, affected the vi-ability of entire economies to perform across the broad range of requirements of a modern power.

    12. The realignment of “value”, and the threat to currencies. Just as real property values are based on trust and perception (generally driven by supply and demand issues) — and trust and perception are abstract and psychological concepts — so, too, is the value of currency a delicately-balanced affair. If trust in leadership, systems, hierarchies, and national identity collapses, why should currencies retain their value? That value is not intrinsic to the currency itself, but rather to the economy which is built around group identity and social cohesion.

    13. Professional talkers will give way to autocracies and dictators. One by product of wealth is the relegation by all individuals of some of their individual powers to others. As wealth increases, individuals assign the more onerous of their tasks to others — cleaning, road repair, and so on — while also assigning to group action those things which are too big, or too complex, for the individual: the construction of houses, or aircraft, or automobiles. And as wealth increases, or conversely decreases to the point where individuals are preoccupied with survival, the function of governance is assigned to, or seized by, those who would take power for their own sake. This has led to the current age of the professional politician — “leaders” who have gained all their status through talking, rather than actually having achieved or built — but the “professional politician” will morph into new forms of Cæsarism or Bonapartism. This is already underway, as “leaders” with no practical experience of the world increasingly fear the uncertainties of markets and the confidence of those who can actually create, manage, and build. Thus, the “new socialism” is a system built by leaders who demand central control of societies and who genuinely fear freedom.

    14. The revived scourge of pandemics. The confluence of trends — declining economic performance, leading to lower budgets for research, healthcare, food, water, and energy, coupled with naturally-changing patterns of climate — will see a rise in the likelihood of a range of pandemics which will influence the population levels, but more importantly, the viability, of societies.

    15. The decline of global capital formation. The new nationalism and fear of instability in other parts of the world will mean that, for the most part, investors will keep much of their capital close to home. This may improve the chances for local capital availability, but will minimize the cash moving in to the international markets, making large-scale capital formation more difficult. This will make international lending and investment more difficult, and will lead to a decline in capital needed for large-scale projects as well as speculative research and development.

    16. The decline of reliable information resources. Economic conditions and changing social pat-terns have already led to the decline in the quality and viability of newspapers. At the same time, although the number of book titles published has increased (and this is expected to peak), the percentage of the global population reading books is declining. No comparable sources of deep and trustworthy information have yet emerged to satisfactorily achieve the same ends as books and periodicals. All new information sources — such as the internet — tend to be less rigorous in their editorial disciplines as a general rule, and tend to cater to shorter attention span audiences. As well, they generally provide information for which the viewer is already searching rather than providing the unsought, and yet important, reports which, in newspapers and magazines, tend to educate the reader unbidden. Thus we see the decline in general education compounded, and narrow specialization in knowledge increased. In a world where a variety of knowledge skills will be necessary for survival, this is a dangerous limitation on human capabilities.


    We are left with the requirement, then, to plan for political and economic uncertainty in a climate which is guaranteed to present a growing array of threats and challenges. It is clear from what is already under-way is that some will prosper in chaos, and some will suffer. Lack of clear objectives and misplaced priori-ties represent the biggest threats to all societies. Waste, indecision, panic, and obfuscation are their handmaidens."

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    Default Re: 16 Geopolitical Megatrends

    ^^^ while the above post stretches the 50% economic content requirement of Dollar Den, undoubtedly America's economy has already seen the early stages of many of the article's conclusions ...

    - US tariffs enacted against Chinese imports ( tires, steel )
    - 'flight to safety' international capital movement into the USA / US dollar
    - direct cash stimulus borrowing / spending by the US gov't ( cars, houses, gov't construction )
    - economic 'death rattles' heard from many major US cities
    - unavailability of affordable venture capital for speculative private enterprises

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    Default Re: 16 Geopolitical Megatrends

    ... and yet more US economic 'handwriting on the wall' based on global interpretations of this week's State of the Union Address ...


    (snip)"The Precarious State of Our Union
    by Peter Schiff [CEO and Chief Global Strategist for EuroPacific Capital - sic]

    In this week's much anticipated State of the Union address, President Obama again demonstrated his poor understanding of the fundamental problems that confront our nation. By following the advice of the same people who helped guide our economy to the precipice of total collapse, Obama now threatens to push it over the edge.

    Notwithstanding his well crafted lip service regarding future spending restraint, the essence of his current program is for more government spending and larger deficits. For all his talk about job creation, his policies will further burden those who might otherwise create those jobs with higher taxes and more regulation. While he did call for tax cuts for the middle class and offered what amounts to bailouts for those struggling to repay student loans, such cuts do nothing to promote growth in the near term and will add to the deficits in the long term.

    The President spoke optimistically about the future, but in reality there is little evidence to support such an upbeat outlook. He began his speech by assuring us that the worst of the storm had passed. General Custer may have said something similar when the first wave of Indian attacks ebbed at Little Big Horn.

    While Obama did have some harsh words for Wall Street (not exactly a courageous political stance), he leveled no criticism at the Federal Reserve or other government agencies that had financed and guaranteed all the ridiculous real estate speculation that precipitated the crash. And while he at least conceded that the prosperity of the last decade was based on illusions, he continued to endorse the very policies that produced the mirage in the first place.

    To lead us back to brighter days, he articulated a vision of a centrally planned recovery, where clean energy and a Soviet style five-year plan to double our exports would make our economy preeminent once more. He fails to understand that the only reason our economy rose to the top in the first place is that the government left it alone.

    In the words of the Spanish philosopher George Santayana, "Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it." Since our President cannot even learn from the mistakes of his immediate predecessor, to say nothing of those he made himself while in the Senate or during his first year as president, we are surely doomed to repeat them, perhaps more quickly than Santayana could have imagined.

    Rather than tightening the reins on the reckless monetary policy that undermined our savings, diminished our industrial output, inflated asset bubbles, and led to reckless speculation on Wall Street and excess consumption on Main Street, we are loosing them further. Rather than repealing regulations that distort markets and create moral hazards, we are adding new ones that do more of the same. Rather than cutting government spending to reduce the burden it places on our economy, we are increasing both the amount of the spending and the size of the burden. Rather than making government smaller so that the private sector can grow, we are making government bigger and forcing the private sector to shrink. Rather than paying off our debts we are taking on even more. Rather than encouraging people to save we are enticing them to spend. Rather than creating jobs, we are merely creating unemployment benefits.

    As a result, instead of seeding the soil for a real recovery we are setting the stage for a prolonged depression."(snip)

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