Results 1 to 10 of 10

Thread: telltale economic signs that can't be faked or spun ...

  1. #1
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default telltale economic signs that can't be faked or spun ...

    ^^^ (snip)"Announcements continue to roll in from retailers that have decided to close stores, slow expansion plans or cease operations altogether."(snip)




    ^^^ (snip)"The March report from Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) shows that private employers in the U.S. cut 23,000 jobs in the month of March. In February, ADP reported 24,000 job losses. In December 2009, private employers eliminated 84,000 jobs. So things are getting worse more slowly. (snip)

    Analysts expected ADP to report the addition of 40,000 jobs."(snip)

    the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index fell from 62.6 in February to 58.8 in March. That's a bigger-than-expected drop and breaks a run of 5 months in which the PMI was rising.

    Adding to the mixed data on employment and the U.S. economy, the U.S. Commerce Department's report on factory orders showed a 0.6% rise in February. Good news, yes, but January's increase was 2.5%. And manufacturers' inventories are not growing, indicating that they have little confidence in a robust recovery."(snip)




    ^^^ (snip)"the tax receipts of the California state government dropped 13.9 percent. That was fifth highest of the states, with the higher states being: Alaska 41.2 percent drop in revenue, Arizona 17.9 percent, South Carolina 15.5 percent and New Mexico 14.1 percent.

    It also found, “California, Arizona, and South Carolina reported the sharpest percent decline in individual income tax in 2009, decreasing 20.4 percent, 42.5 percent, and 29.6 percent from 2008 respectively.”(snip)




    ^^^ (snip)"WASHINGTON, April 13 (Reuters) - U.S. states saw a second straight month of weak sales tax receipts in March, which suggests weakness in the broader economy, (snip)

    Only 18 percent of states surveyed met or exceeded their sales tax projections last month, the report said. About a third of those surveyed said sales tax receipts were down from a year ago, some "quite steeply," it added."(snip)


    the obvious take-away from the above is that when one sets aside 'official' statistics that are subject to seasonal adjustments, hedonic adjustments, out-and-out gaming the system ( i.e. counting temporary employment of US Census workers as equal and opposite to permanent unemployment of manufacturing workers ), and stick with real world statistics based on real money being spent, real business profits, real tax revenues collected etc., that the US economy looks far less 'rosey'.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 03-31-2010 at 10:15 PM.

  2. #2
    God/dess threlayer's Avatar
    Joined
    Aug 2003
    Location
    Syracuse
    Posts
    5,921
    Thanks
    369
    Thanked 419 Times in 290 Posts
    My Mood
    Fine

    Default Re: telltale economic signs that can't be faked or spun ...

    THe odd thing is that these statistics are only about jobs LOST, not about jobs FOUND, or the next job situation. Truly pessimistic data promulgated by negative-thinking people.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

  3. #3
    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
    Joined
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    5,493
    Thanks
    120
    Thanked 50 Times in 35 Posts

    Default Re: telltale economic signs that can't be faked or spun ...

    Or reality.

  4. #4
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: telltale economic signs that can't be faked or spun ...

    well, here's another news item of import. Remember earlier discussions that upper middle class suburban Americans would soon become the target of a double whammy ... being hit by an increasing burglary / robbery rate by poorer Americans ( who now have stronger economic incentive to 'take chances' breaking the law ) at the same time that local gov't budget balancing payroll cuts would reduce levels of police protection ?



    (snip)"NEW ROCHELLE, N.Y. (CBS) ― Click to enlarge1 of 1
    A professional gang has hit 22 homes in New Rochelle and may be behind many more burglaries throughout Westchester.

    Imagine returning home only to find your underwear drawer ransacked by a stranger and your valuable jewelry no where to be found. That's the frightening scenario confronting homeowners in five swanky neighborhoods in Westchester County, where a professional gang is carrying out a suburban burglary spree.

    Inside the New Rochelle police forensics unit, Det. Isabel O'Rourke has a growing collection of evidence from the spree, including pictures of windows forced open with crowbars; bedroom closets ransacked; and dressers searched for valuables in the targeted neighborhood, where homes start at $600,000.

    "We're nervous," said New Rochelle resident Glenn Staropoli. "We live in a pretty nice area, not used to this kind of stuff and now it's starting to happen more and more."

    Police say a professional burglary gang has targeted 22 homes in the city's swanky north end since November. The same crew may have struck homes in nearby posh suburbs, including Scarsdale, Eastchester, Rye, and Harrison.

    They target homes that appear empty and strike between 5 and 11 p.m.

    Bill Hertwig said the backyard burglars recently hit two of his neighbors, forcing open rear windows, grabbing jewelry from the bedrooms.

    "I've spoken to several neighbors who have gotten broken into. It's a very upsetting experience, it's one that I don't want to experience," said Hertwig.

    Hertwig said nervous homeowners are upgrading security. Virtually every home on his street now has an alarm system. Another key prevention measure: exterior lighting. Many residents are installing these fixtures with motion sensors. They turn the light on if someone is moving nearby.

    Police are stepping up patrols, looking for unusual activity and vehicles.

    "Some of the information includes the possibility that a white van may be one of the vehicles that's been used in these incidents," said New Rochelle Police Capt. Joseph Schaller.

    Police urge residents to stay aware and report anything suspicious. They say the burglars have scored tens of thousands of dollars and other valuables. They work quick, even when they trip alarms, they're gone before police arrive."(snip)

  5. #5
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: telltale economic signs that can't be faked or spun ...

    and yet another ...

    (snip)"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Wholesale prices rose more than expected last month as food prices surged by the most in 26 years. But excluding food and energy, prices were nearly flat.

    The Labor Department said the Producer Price Index rose by 0.7 percent in March, compared to analysts' forecasts of a 0.4 percent rise. A rise in gas prices also helped push up the index.

    Still, there was little sign of budding inflation in the report. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, wholesale prices rose by 0.1 percent, matching analysts' expectations.

    Food prices jumped by 2.4 percent in March, the most since January 1984. Vegetable prices soared by more than 49 percent, the most in 15 years. A cold snap wiped out much of Florida's tomato and other vegetable crops at the beginning of this year.

    Gasoline prices rose 2.1 percent, the department said, the fifth rise in six months.

    In the past year, wholesale prices are up 6 percent, with much of that increase driven by higher oil and other commodity prices. But the core index, which excludes food and energy, rose only 0.9 percent.

    Consumers are facing smaller price increases, as many companies are reluctant to pass on higher costs. Last week, the Labor Department said the consumer price index rose only 0.1 percent in March. Excluding food and energy, the core consumer index was unchanged.

    Core consumer prices rose by just 1.1 percent in the past 12 months, the department said last week, the best showing since January 2004.

    Several economists noted that the wholesale price report showed increasing costs at earlier stages of production. That could pressure companies to raise prices later this year. Crude goods prices, excluding food and energy, rose 6 percent in the last 12 months, the department said."(snip)

    from


    The obvious take-away is that the gov't's official core inflation statistic is only low because it specifically excludes rising costs of food and energy. Unfortunately, every consumer must not only spend money on food and energy, but must spend money on those essential items BEFORE spending 'discretionary' money on non-essential items. And the lower the income level of the consumer, the greater impact will be felt from rising food and energy prices. This of course conveniently explains why prices for non-essential items from appliances to furniture to cars, which make up the bulk of the core index, are not rising ( i.e. because there is little money left over after paying higher grocery / utility / gas pump bills to spend on a new dishwasher or couch or Chevy !!!)

    Another not so obvious take-away is the article's confirmation that producer prices / wholesale prices, i.e. the costs that businesses must pay for their raw materials, have risen significantly. However, because of the poor economy, businesses have been reluctant or unable to pass on their increasing raw material costs via increased prices for their finished goods / services. This hurts business profit margin / earnings, which will eventually affect pricing of stock shares / business employment levels etc.

  6. #6
    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
    Joined
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    5,493
    Thanks
    120
    Thanked 50 Times in 35 Posts

    Default Re: telltale economic signs that can't be faked or spun ...

    Luckily people don't consider food and gas an expense!

  7. #7
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: telltale economic signs that can't be faked or spun ...

    ^^^ if you don't mind me asking, where do such people live ?

    The only answer I could come up with on my own was Section 8 housing ... where their food is purchased with 'free' food stamps, they have no job thus no need to buy gasoline to drive to work, and where their utility bills are gov't subsidized.

  8. #8
    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
    Joined
    Dec 2003
    Posts
    5,493
    Thanks
    120
    Thanked 50 Times in 35 Posts

    Default Re: telltale economic signs that can't be faked or spun ...

    LOL - it was a snide remark Mel, but you do make a point in your reply!

  9. #9
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: telltale economic signs that can't be faked or spun ...

    here's some professional commentary re rising food and fuel prices ...

    (snip)"National Inflation Association
    April 22, 2010

    U.S. Food Inflation Spiraling Out of Control

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) today released their Producer Price Index (PPI) report for March 2010 and the latest numbers are shocking. Food prices for the month rose by 2.4%, its sixth consecutive monthly increase and the largest jump in over 26 years. NIA believes that a major breakout in food inflation could be imminent, similar to what is currently being experienced in India.

    Some of the startling food price increases on a year-over-year basis include, fresh and dry vegetables up 56.1%, fresh fruits and melons up 28.8%, eggs for fresh use up 33.6%, pork up 19.1%, beef and veal up 10.7% and dairy products up 9.7%. On October 30th, 2009, NIA predicted that inflation would appear next in food and agriculture, but we never anticipated that it would spiral so far out of control this quickly.

    The PPI foreshadows price increases that will later occur in the retail sector. With U-6 unemployment rising last month to 16.9%, many retailers are currently reluctant to pass along rising prices to consumers, but they will soon be forced to do so if they want to avoid reporting huge losses to shareholders.

    Food stamp usage in the U.S. has now increased for 14 consecutive months. There are now 39.4 million Americans on food stamps, up 22.4% from one year ago. The U.S. government is now paying out more to Americans in benefits than it collects in taxes. As food inflation continues to surge, our country will soon have no choice but to cut back on food stamps and other entitlement programs.

    Most financial experts in the mainstream media are proclaiming that the recession is over and inflation is not a problem in the U.S. Unfortunately, they fail to realize that rising food and gasoline prices accounted for 58% of February's year-over-year 3.85% rise in retail sales. NIA believes price inflation is beginning to accelerate in many areas of the economy besides food and energy, and all increases in U.S. retail sales this year will be entirely due to inflation."(snip)

    from


    One not so obvious take-away from this analysis is that official gov't statistics relating to total consumer dollars being spent on retail sales do not differentiate between MORE purchases being made and the same ( or even FEWER ) purchases being made but at a cost of a larger number of total US dollars.
    Last edited by Melonie; 04-24-2010 at 12:38 AM.

  10. #10
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: telltale economic signs that can't be faked or spun ...

    bumping this thread with some new info that is interesting to say the least ...



    (snip)"COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) -- American Electric Power Inc., one of the nation's biggest power generators, says 10 of its smaller, coal-fired generating units will remain off line for much of the year because of lower demand for electricity.

    It is one of several steps the company is taking to cut costs.

    The company said the units will be kept in "extended startup status," during off-peak months beginning Tuesday. The plan will allow the company to redeploy workers at several coal-fired units projected to run less frequently over the next few years.

    The units have not been used much in recent years, and there have been fewer opportunities to sell excess power into wholesale markets, the company said.

    The recession has dampened demand for electricity, especially from industrial customers. Electricity demand fell for the past two years, the first time that has happened since 1949.

    Utilities have been cutting staff and capital expenditures as they look for ways to lower costs until demand improves."(snip)

Similar Threads

  1. more economic facts that can't be spun ...
    By Melonie in forum Dollar Den
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 08-21-2010, 05:58 AM
  2. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 08-19-2010, 01:53 AM
  3. Replies: 5
    Last Post: 07-08-2010, 10:00 AM
  4. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-25-2010, 12:28 PM
  5. Replies: 1
    Last Post: 06-25-2010, 10:31 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •