this comes from a professional investors' BBS ... for what it's worth ...

(snip)"excerpt:
The extraordinary rise in commodity prices, at the beginning of a global cyclical upswing, is beginning to reorder the pecking order of the world economy. Together with the advances made by China and India in the last decade, it is producing an entirely new world order, which many will find uncomfortable. In it, commodities, derided for decades as unimportant, have become scarce resources, to be guarded and managed with the utmost care. Conversely human labor and skill, on the basis of which the glories of human civilization were built, is entering into a state of gigantic glut.

The current commodities boom is qualitatively different from those of the past. In previous commodities booms, such as those of 1972-73 or 2006-08, the global economy was operating close to capacity, and indeed the boom was an important indicator that full capacity was about to be reached. The booms were accompanied by wage inflation and in both cases resulted in price inflation, although in 2007-08 the price inflation was aborted by the financial crash before it could really get hold.

This time, a commodities boom is occurring while the global economy is still far from full capacity and unemployment worldwide remains high. There are two reasons for this. First, a number of governments have engaged in irresponsible fiscal “stimulus,” running budget deficits unprecedented in peacetime. This has tended to prop up demand for the kinds of commodities that are used in infrastructure, especially iron ore and copper – think for example of China’s $100 billion railroad building program. Second, Chinese and Indian demand, which did no more than dip for a few months in 2008-09 before rebounding strongly, has driven up the global consumption of commodities to unprecedented levels. 1.3 billion Chinese, each with less than one fourth of the consumption propensity of each of 300 million Americans or 400 million Europeans, nevertheless between them consume a lot more materials in their expenditure, because their consumption mix is more oriented towards foods and physically bulky goods. With the Chinese automobile market now exceeding the US one in terms of units sold, it’s not surprising that Chinese steel consumption has soared.

What has not yet been fully realized is that this change is likely to be more or less permanent.
...

In summary, in today’s world, commodities have become scarce and labor has become commoditized, unless fenced in by artificial restraints. With the global supply of commodities finite, this problem can only worsen if population is allowed to continue growing. A world with 10 billion people, all able to compete on an equal basis in a globalized labor market and desiring commodity-intensive modern mechanical marvels, would be a world of ever-increasing scarcity and impoverishment, besides its adverse environmental effects.

Hence population reduction programs, aiming to reduce global population to a level at which labor once more becomes more valuable than commodities, should be given the highest priority at a global level. Otherwise, with the labor supply unlimited and the skills supply nearly so, and commodities supply relatively restricted, the only wealthy people will be those who own mines or oil wells."(snip)


the 'gold foil hat' crowd would tell you that this probably came from the Bilderbergers