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Thread: Who will bail out the EU ?

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    Default Who will bail out the EU ?

    The $ 963 billion ( $750 billion Euros ) stability package will not work because it addresses the symptoms and not the causes of Greece's insolvency. And Spain's; Italy's, Ireland's and Portugal's. And maybe even France.

    The basic problem has more to do with the EU as a whole than Greece itself. There is no mechanism to stop national governments from breaking the rules. Which Greece and the rest of the "PIGS" did in spades. And got away with and are now being rewarded for. There is no popular support for massive wealth transfers. The German people are having fits. Merkel's coalition got clobbered ijn regional elections in direct response to the bailout. Nothing, repeat NOTHING has occurred to stimulate economic growth in heavily indebted nations like Greece.

    The markets greeted this bailout package with typical cheers and whistles. As I've pointed out, markets LOVE bailouts. Even when they know that problems are being postponed and NOT solved.

    This crisis arose because the PIGS did not abide by the Stability and Growth Pact which limited annual bidget deficits to 3% of GDP. By failing to enforce the pact, the EU permitted Greece into the euro when by its own rules the EU should have kept them out. No steps were taken to discipline Greece when its budget deficits went out of control.

    Since Greece has been rewarded for behaving badly, why should any other Euro country behave itself ? The ONLY enforcement mechanism the EU had was to let Greece default. Like many other countries have done over the last two centuries.

    Who says Germany and the other rescuers will keep their commitments ? They might renege if their polls keep dropping.

    Worst of all, the EU and ECB have destroyed their own credibility. We were told there would NOT be any bailouts among member states. We were told the ECB would not buy government debt. We were told the Stability Pact would be enforced.

    The reason none of this will work is two-fold. Not only do the indebted have to push through huge and painful austerity programs but they can't devalue their own ciurrencies.

    Since none of the root causes have been addressed, this problem will recur in Europe. Then what ? The EU will not be able to bail out anyone. The Germans and a few others will say with justice: " Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me." So will the IMF and hopefully the U.S. Who's left ? The Chinese ? They are nervous enough about OUR debt to GDP ratio and are not going to step in to bail out the EU.

    In the old days when countries got jammed up, they sold off pieces of their empires. France sold us Louisiana to help pay for Napoleon's wars; Denmark sold us the Virgin Islands because W.W.I was killing their trade with Britain. Maybe the Chinese could buy Santorini, Mykonos and a few other choice islands from the Greeks and Majorca and the Canary Islands from the Spanish. Just a thought.

    The bottom line : Don't invest in Europe and buy more GOLD !
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 05-13-2010 at 09:43 AM.

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    Greece did get punished by losing voting power.

    An interesting graph of countries in danger (countries in the ring of fire):

    Attachment 23719

    France, Italy, Ireland, Japan, Spain, UK and the US are right in there.

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    A. via the IMF, US taxpayers are already on the hook for an additional >US$50 billion in european 'bailout' loan guarantees. Because the FED won't release the data, it is unknown how may additional tens ( or hundreds ) of billions that US taxpayers are already on the hook for based on euro-US dollar swap contracts. Hey at least the German voters were made aware of how much of their tax money was going to be redirected toward the european 'bailout' ( 138 billion euros I believe ) and got a chance to express their reaction in German voting booths. Most US voters don't even realize that IMF loans and central bank currency swap contracts have been entered into on their behalf by the US gov't and US fed.

    B. As far as Greece or the other PIIGS actually trimming their gov't budget deficit spending, in point of fact some countries have proposed and/or actually enacted measures to make a small dent in the problem. Gov't worker paychecks have been CUT. Retirement ages have been pushed farther out. Taxes have been increased. Gov't workers have been terminated. Of course, there are also demonstrations in the streets of Athens ! On the other hand, the only portion of such gov't budget deficit spending measures seen in the US are tax increases and failure to 'refill' gov't worker positions as existing workers retire or quit.

    The proper question is probably 'who will bail out the US' !!!

    PS the sale of Greek Islands was the very first proposal the Greek gov't received. It came from a group of uber-rich hedge fund investors ... who would have immediately provided billions of euros and enabled the Greek gov't to make their latest gov't bond payment without default. The hedge fundies of course were looking to set up an 'independent' country once the islands were purchased, where their operations could be relocated ( free of international tax and financial information sharing laws )

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    Lol. Really ? I didn't know that.
    Don't they already use the Channel Islands and Bermuda ?

    As for bailing out the U.S., it PROBABLY won't be necessary. Our economy is a lot more resilient than Europe's with a far greater capacity for growth.

    With regard to European austerity measures, they are less than half the solution. Without increased economic growth the prospect for the PIGS and even Europe as a whole is not good. They'll never get out from under. Germany cannot carry the entire EU.

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    Don't they already use the Channel Islands and Bermuda ?
    yes, but the IRS is already watching closely !


    As for bailing out the U.S., it PROBABLY won't be necessary. Our economy is a lot more resilient than Europe's with a far greater capacity for growth.
    this has historically been true. However, I'm not so sure with the changes that have taken place / been set in motion over the last few years. Let's add up the 'pro-growth' factors ...

    - 2011 major tax increases already on the plate
    - rising (imported) energy prices as domestic oil production bombed out by BP gulf well aftermath
    - manufacturing continuing to close domestic production facilities / mutate into assembly shops for foreign made parts and sub-assemblies
    - shortage of business capital at reasonable interest rates
    - rising mandated costs of doing business ( from environmental compliance to worker safety compliance to health care costs to local taxes )
    - euro priced export products getting cheaper while US dollar priced export products getting more expensive
    - China still holding the Yuan : Dollar exchange rate hard peg ... Japan still holding the Yen : Dollar soft peg
    - bankrupt states eliminating (anemic to start with) business incentives in order to reduce size of state budget deficits

    where was all of that resilience supposed to be found again ?

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 05-13-2010 at 12:25 PM.

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    The turmoil in Greece over having to fix their problems resulted from essentially the same problem we've had over here. That is the lack of rational economic thinking, watching, and planning. If our current administration had did no more than the Bush admin started, likely we'd headed in this direction too. Even then we still have the idealogically misguided Tea Party spoilers.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    Quote Originally Posted by threlayer View Post
    The turmoil in Greece over having to fix their problems resulted from essentially the same problem we've had over here. That is the lack of rational economic thinking, watching, and planning. If our current administration had did no more than the Bush admin started, likely we'd headed in this direction too. Even then we still have the idealogically misguided Tea Party spoilers.
    I don't think so. Greece's problems resulted from more government than the Greeks could afford. Too many government workers collecting too high salaries and retiring at 53 plus too many tax evaders.

    Btw, for those claiming that a VAT will solve our fiscal problems , the PIGS all have VATs over 20%. In fact, the countries in the worst fiscal trouble have the highest VAT rates in Europe.

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    yes, but the IRS is already watching closely !




    this has historically been true. However, I'm not so sure with the changes that have taken place / been set in motion over the last few years. Let's add up the 'pro-growth' factors ...

    - 2011 major tax increases already on the plate
    - rising (imported) energy prices as domestic oil production bombed out by BP gulf well aftermath
    - manufacturing continuing to close domestic production facilities / mutate into assembly shops for foreign made parts and sub-assemblies
    - shortage of business capital at reasonable interest rates
    - rising mandated costs of doing business ( from environmental compliance to worker safety compliance to health care costs to local taxes )
    - euro priced export products getting cheaper while US dollar priced export products getting more expensive
    - China still holding the Yuan : Dollar exchange rate hard peg ... Japan still holding the Yen : Dollar soft peg
    - bankrupt states eliminating (anemic to start with) business incentives in order to reduce size of state budget deficits

    where was all of that resilience supposed to be found again ?

    ~
    Yes but a lot of those things are correctable.

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    ^^^ well, that remains to be seen ... with the first serious sign appearing early this november !

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    I don't think so. Greece's problems resulted from more government than the Greeks could afford. Too many government workers collecting too high salaries and retiring at 53 plus too many tax evaders.
    I don't know why you keep denying everything I post here. It's is if you dont actually read and think about it. Or maybe it isn't couched in the terms you'd use. But...

    essentially the same problem we've had over here. That is the lack of rational economic thinking, watching, and planning.
    That statement of mine INCLUDES "...more government than the Greeks could afford..." It may have a different flavor, but it is the same dish.

    (annoyed)
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    The turmoil in Greece over having to fix their problems resulted from essentially the same problem we've had over here. That is the lack of rational economic thinking, watching, and planning
    I'll make the argument that you are partially right. As discussed in other threads, Greece does share some common attributes with America ... and specifically with certain US states. A significant contributor to Greece's problem is the fact that >51% of Greeks had a personal stake in seeing gov't provided salaries / retirement benefits / social welfare benefits increased, while <49% of Greeks were personally impacted by the taxes necessary to fund those increased salaries / retirement benefits / social welfare benefits. In both cases, gov't officials arguably attempted to 'have their cake and eat it too' by failing to bring the costs of those gov't worker salaries / retirement benefits / social welfare benefits into line with net tax revenues received - and stemming the ( growing ) gap via the gov't taking on ever increasing amounts of new debt. Your choice of the term 'rational thinking' takes on a new meaning when voting for increased gov't benefits that come at no additional cost to that particular voter appears to be a very 'rational' decision !

    Arguably the only real differences ( relative to the analogous situation existing in California for example ) are that Greece was the first gov't to actually face a default situation on their gov't debt ( i.e. bond ) payment obligations. Apparently, Greece's creditors were unwilling to accept gov't issued IOU's in lieu of actual cash !!! The other significant difference is that mainstream media was willing to report the serious objections of Germany, France etc. to a Greek bailout ( where California bailout objections by Texas, Alaska etc. were treated as crackpot ravings).

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    yes, but the IRS is already watching closely !




    this has historically been true. However, I'm not so sure with the changes that have taken place / been set in motion over the last few years. Let's add up the 'pro-growth' factors ...

    - 2011 major tax increases already on the plate
    - rising (imported) energy prices as domestic oil production bombed out by BP gulf well aftermath
    - manufacturing continuing to close domestic production facilities / mutate into assembly shops for foreign made parts and sub-assemblies
    - shortage of business capital at reasonable interest rates
    - rising mandated costs of doing business ( from environmental compliance to worker safety compliance to health care costs to local taxes )
    - euro priced export products getting cheaper while US dollar priced export products getting more expensive
    - China still holding the Yuan : Dollar exchange rate hard peg ... Japan still holding the Yen : Dollar soft peg
    - bankrupt states eliminating (anemic to start with) business incentives in order to reduce size of state budget deficits

    where was all of that resilience supposed to be found again ?

    ~
    Even if we had a strong come back we haven't fixed any of the problems that got us to this point. The new banking regulations do not address the subprime problem. There are still subprime loans being done by subprime lenders, that are not banks, still without over sight. We could end up with wave after wave of defaults until we are in a full blow depression.

    Not to mention the house of cards that wall street has created with credit default swaps.

    There is so much going on behind closed doors that we really dont know how bad it all is.

    I am very pessimistic about the out come. Hopefully I am wrong.
    Nature knows no indecencies; man invents them. ~ Mark Twain


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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    There are still subprime loans being done by subprime lenders, that are not banks, still without over sight
    hence the return of Freddie Mac to Washington begging for an additional 10 billion in US taxpayer money to stem their recent losses. I believe the recent statistic is that 94% of all recently written mortgages are now backed by Freddie / Fannie or other gov't agencies, meaning that the US taxpayer is potentially on the hook for almost all future defaults / losses.


    the house of cards that wall street has created with credit default swaps
    Indeed, this 'dark pool' is so deep that every official body is scared to death to 'turn on the first light'.

    There is so much going on behind closed doors that we really dont know how bad it all is.

    I am very pessimistic about the out come. .
    A thorough study of history will show you that this sort of s#!t has always gone on behind closed doors. The only real differences today are that mainstream media is no longer 100% capable of 'keeping a lid' on public disclosure, and that the gov'ts / wall st. and other world financial institutions are no longer 100% capable of 'selling' a bogus cover story to average citizens.


    Hopefully I am wrong
    Indeed ! However, historically speaking, when similar financial crises have occurred in the past, the eventual 'solution' to the financial crisis has typically been a major war.

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    circling back to the 'moral hazard' of the Greek bailout ...

    (snip)"Bittersweet are the uses of austerity

    As to what this all means for Europe and, by extension, the U.S., my oft-cited source the "Lord of the Dark Matter" quoted Brendan O'Connor, who on May 9 wrote a brilliant rant that appeared on the front page of Ireland's Sunday Independent:

    "The Greeks ruined it for the rest of us. You would have to imagine that that'll be the end of the bailouts. The Germans only barely gave it to the Greeks. And if they do ever consider a bailout again, we seem to be a few down the list anyway, so by the time they've finished with Spain and Portugal you can be sure there'll be no appetite to bail us out.

    "In retrospect, we were probably too good, too eager to please.

    "We should have run the place into the ground and been first on the list for a bailout.


    "But no, we took the pain, because we're Irish and we're drawn to the pain, and we'd rather inflict it on ourselves than give anyone else the satisfaction of saying they inflicted it on us. . . . (snip)

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    and circling back to very important changes stemming from the 'bail-ers' resenting the 'bail-ees' ...

    (snip)"The multi-billion-euro payout for Greece, followed by an even more expensive rescue package for the threatened single currency, has created the greatest political climate change in a generation.

    Suddenly Germans are asking questions about the European project that has been the bedrock of their politics for 60 years, leaving Angela Merkel, the chancellor, under fire from the electorate, the opposition and her own party.

    It took a stand-up display of table-banging aggression from President Nicolas Sarkozy and an intervention on the telephone from President Barack Obama to get Merkel to agree to the euro package.

    “We foot the bill for EU disaster,” screamed a headline in Bild, the tabloid newspaper. Christoph Schmidt, a government economist, responded by warning: “Germany cannot become Europe’s paymaster.”

    The tension between Germany and France threatened to spill over at a Brussels summit last weekend when Merkel and Sarkozy had a furious row. According to observers, it ended with Sarkozy threatening to leave the euro."(snip)

    (snip)"The stakes could scarcely be higher. “If the euro fails, it is not only the currency that fails,” Merkel warned last week. “Then Europe fails. The idea of European unity fails.”

    Sarkozy’s petulant outburst won the day — Merkel was forced to back down on the rescue — but in the longer term it may undermine his objective of a more closely integrated Europe.

    There is now a pervasive awareness in Germany that the post-war consensus of subsuming its national identity — and national self-interest — in the “common European house” no longer gets a popular rubber stamp.

    “We give millions to countries where they have big annual pay rises, perks for civil servants and soaring pensions. I’ll have to work to 67 for a pension that might not be enough,” complained Ulrike Daunheim, a 38-year-old shop assistant and Bild reader.

    “Greece has no industry worthy of the name, makes no products with prospects on a global scale and carries out no research to discover any,” was the verdict of the left-liberal Der Spiegel news magazine."
    (snip)

    (snip)"The greatest fear in German minds is that by agreeing to buy bonds issued by countries such as Greece, which have been reduced to “junk” status, the European Central Bank (ECB) will weaken the euro and risk rampant inflation.

    That is a word that strikes a chill in the heart of every citizen of a nation that has twice in the past 100 years seen its money made worthless and its savings evaporate, most notably during the 1920s."(snip)

    (snip)"Ulrike Guérot, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said: “Germany has provided the oil that greased Europe. If we don’t want to do that any more, we need to say so. But that means we no longer want to see a Europeanised Germany, but a German-style Europe.”

    This would mean a halt to European Union expansion — and certainly to eurozone expansion to dodgy economies. Friday’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, the epitome of conservative economic orthodoxy, suggested that if others do not toe the line the euro could retrench to a few economically compatible countries, or else Germany should leave. That would finish the euro and make Sarkozy’s threat to pull out if he did not get his way look a bad joke.

    The creation of the euro, within a decade of East Germans being given the coveted western D-mark, was sold as a “thank you” for German unification: in effect extending the stable German currency to the rest of the continent."(snip)

    (snip)"The argument is about the future of the European idea. Sarkozy felt Merkel was wrong to leave behind the euro crisis to attend a VE Day anniversary ceremony in Moscow. For Merkel that was missing the point: the European project has been about superseding the national rivalries that lead to war.

    For 60 years Germans, aware of their own past, were happy to pay the pipers of peace.

    The mantra of Britain, which always argued that the EU should be expanded without economic integration, was “wider, not deeper”. This may have allowed countries such as Greece, with a different economic culture, to be embraced all the more readily.

    German politicians believed the euro meant stronger economic bonds that would ultimately imply political union — and that the dilution of national sovereignty would be driven by the bigger partners.

    That is now in doubt. In the midst of the crisis Wolfgang Schäuble, Merkel’s finance minister, was taken to hospital after suffering an 'allergic reaction to medication'.

    The same fate may yet await the European project."(snip)

    from


    again similar sentiments are growing from similar circumstances in the minds of the 'bail-ers' in Texas, Alaska etc. regarding the potential 'bail-ees' in California, Illinois etc.

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    You won't see me buying any California (etc) municipal or Greek national bonds.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    ^^^ ah, but this is why the uber-rich remain uber-rich, while you are still working for a living. The uber-rich are confident that, even though California and Greek gov't bonds pay a much higher interest rates than equivalent bonds issued by their more 'stable' neighbors, in the final analysis the 'feds' will make sure that California and Greece do not default on these bonds. Or put another way, they're confident that when push comes to shove the 'feds' will come up with bailout money ( by taxing and transferring money from those more 'stable' neighbors ! )

    Call it what you want ... 'moral hazard' ... mispricing of risk ... wealth transfer ...

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    Default Re: Who will bail out the EU ?

    AS the risk goes up, investors will want a greater return, so the value of the bonds decreases to compensate. Basically you can't have it both ways. Still a bad investment, unless one plans to hold it for a very long time and then let the estate deal with it.

    (At this point I have enough income to live on (though not independently wealthy), so I take work that comes my way if it is interesting enough and pays well enough for my trouble, so maybe I have a different perspective.)
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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