Results 1 to 2 of 2

Thread: economic facts that can't be spun part 2 - May retail sales

  1. #1
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default economic facts that can't be spun part 2 - May retail sales

    (snip)"June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly dropped in May for the first time in eight months, indicating the rebound in consumer spending is cooling as Americans boost savings.

    Purchases fell 1.2 percent, led by a record plunge in demand at building-material stores that may reflect the end of a government rebate on sales of energy-saving appliances, according to figures from the Commerce Department issued today in Washington. Another report showed consumer sentiment climbed this month to the highest level in two years.

    Growing incomes may be helping lift Americans’ confidence, while a slowdown in hiring and unemployment hovering near a 26- year high means employees will put away the extra money in their paychecks. Discounters Target Corp. and TJX Cos. were among merchants that reported gains in May sales, indicating households are looking for bargains."(snip)

    additionally, Bloomberg TV reported additional 'under the hood' details on the breakdown. It seems that 'luxury' retailers such as Tiffany's and Nieman Marcus experienced a positive 1-2% growth in their retail sales. It also seems that bargain basement retailers like WalMart and Target also experienced a positive 1-2% growth in their retail sales. But middle class retailers like Penneys and lost retail sales in the negative 5% range. See .

    (snip)"June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell 1.2 percent in May for the first time in eight months, while stores catering to middle-income customers lost sales to discount and luxury chains. Bloomberg's Julie Hyman and Dominic Chu report. "(snip)

    Bloomberg's explanation for this phenomena is that the 'rich' are feeling more comfortable about the stock and bond markets, and the 'poor' continue to spend their refundable tax credits and social welfare benefit checks, but that many middle class Americans can no longer afford to purchase 'middle class' goods !

    One indisputable fact I will mention is that retail sales data involves real people spending ( or in this case not spending ) real dollars. There are no hedonic adjustments, no 'modeling', and no 'selective data inclusions / exclusions' involved.

    One very interesting coincidence is that the fall in retail sales follows the termination of US Taxpayer subsidies for first time home buyers and energy efficient appliances.

  2. #2
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: economic facts that can't be spun part 2 - May retail sales

    it looks like the actual sales numbers resulted in a downward revision of the highly touted 3% GDP increase (estimate) issued last month ...

    (snip)"25 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy grew at a 2.7 percent annual rate in the first quarter, less than previously calculated, reflecting a smaller gain in consumer spending and a bigger trade gap.

    The revised increase in gross domestic product was smaller than the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and compares with a 3 percent estimate issued last month, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Corporate profits climbed more than previously projected.

    The revised figures showed an economy that was more dependent on inventory restocking and less driven by demand from consumers and businesses before the European debt crisis intensified. Unemployment, combined with the turmoil in financial markets and a lack of inflation, are among reasons Federal Reserve policy makers this week reiterated a pledge to keep interest rates low.

    “It’s a moderate kind of recovery,” said Jay Feldman, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York, who projected growth would be revised down. Consumer spending “is not growing as fast as in prior recoveries.”

    Stock-index futures dropped immediately after the report, trimming earlier gains."(snip)

    from

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 08-01-2010, 06:35 AM
  2. Replies: 5
    Last Post: 07-08-2010, 10:00 AM
  3. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-25-2010, 12:28 PM
  4. Replies: 26
    Last Post: 06-25-2010, 12:20 AM
  5. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-24-2010, 04:10 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •