(snip)"ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 0.6 Percent in May

June 25, 2010 12:00 PM

ARLINGTON, VA — The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.6 percent in May, which was the first month-to-month drop since February of this year. This followed an upwardly revised 1 percent increase in April. The latest reduction put the SA index at 109.6 (2000=100).

The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 108.3 in May, down 2.8 percent from the previous month. "(snip)

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(snip)"There were many astonishing aspects of the credit crunch, as we used to call it. One was the collapse of the Baltic Dry Index.

Long scrutinized by economists and some investors as a leading indicator of global trade levels, this shipping-cost bellwether leaped off a cliff in 2008, and into front-page prominence. From a peak of 11,793 points on May 20 that year, contagion from the financial sector to real-world trade took it down 94%. By December 3 it languished at a stunted 663.

Credit, the life blood of international commerce, had seized up. This wasn’t just a bankers’ problem any more. Oh hell…

Anyway, on December 6 everyone was a shipping expert. Economic commentators who, as far as anyone knew, had spent very little time before the mast were suddenly as easy with the lexicon of seafaring as old salts or Greek magnates. The BDI was big news. Big bad news.

Of course, economies were stimulated, apocalypse delayed, sorry, averted, and the BDI went on to recover some poise. Those 2008 highs haven’t been remotely threatened since, mind.

But have you taken a look at it lately? The index has dropped about 40% in June alone. From a level of about 4200 in late May, it has slipped to around 2500.

Now, don’t panic. The BDI may not be heading back into the unwelcome spotlight and your favorite economist isn’t about to start talking like Long John Silver again.

But it’s certainly worth watching once more, perhaps as early evidence of a possible, deep Chinese slowdown. Bulk transport rates are, after all, more or less totally dependent on raw-material demand from that quarter nowadays."(snip)

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The take-away from both of these declining shipping measurements is that fewer raw materials / retail products are being transported ... meaning that US manufacturers' production isn't using up as many raw materials, meaning that US retailers aren't selling as much stock requiring replacement etc.