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Thread: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    You mean when CLINTON was President ? Very simple. Look at the SPENDING numbers THEN and compare them to NOW.
    What about when Lyndon Johnson was President, when we were fighting a major war in S.E. Asia and we started the Great Society without running up major debt? and what about when Nixon, Ford, and Jimmy Carter were in the WhiteHouse? They didn't run up nearly as much debt as Reagan and Bush.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Do you realize that Obama's $1.3 Trillion deficit exceeds all of Bush The Dumber's deficits in his eight ( years ?
    The budget for the fiscal year 2009, with a $1.4 trillion deficit, was set in place when Bush was President. Even the conservative Cato Institute acknowledges this.

    http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2009/...-2009-deficit/


    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    You are deliberately misreading my posts regarding "tax cuts". Part of it might be my fault based on inexact language. I support and advocate INCREASING revenues and have repeatedly posted to that effect. I support cuts to the RATES coupled with elimination of ALL deductions and credits. I have repeatedly stated that the sole legitimate purpose of our Tax Code is to raise the revenue necessary for our government to pay it's bills. I think even you would agree that instead the Tax Code has been turned into a "goody bag" to reward this group and that.
    I agree there are a significant number of loopholes in our current tax system in the form of deductions and credits, and these should be looked at to reduced the deficit, in addition to increasing tax rates and cutting wasteful spending.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    What about when Lyndon Johnson was President, when we were fighting a major war in S.E. Asia and we started the Great Society without running up major debt? and what about when Nixon, Ford, and Jimmy Carter were in the WhiteHouse? They didn't run up nearly as much debt as Reagan and Bush.


    The budget for the fiscal year 2009, with a $1.4 trillion deficit, was set in place when Bush was President. Even the conservative Cato Institute acknowledges this.






    I agree there are a significant number of loopholes in our current tax system in the form of deductions and credits, and these should be looked at to reduced the deficit, in addition to increasing tax rates and cutting wasteful spending.
    Buick city during Ford etc. and before "free trade"



    Buick city after "free trade"



    Destroy a nations economy - destroy the government's balance sheet.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Free trade isn't the reason why Buick City looks the way it does. Poor management is.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    so post your own new Dollar Den threads already ... to balance out this supposed lopsidedness !!!
    I would have to post dozens of topics to even out the lopsidedness and quite frankly I'm not that obsessive, I'll just limit my exposure.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Deogol View Post
    A big problem is, the government has ingrained it's self deeply into every corner of the economy - it's hard to talk about it without getting into politics.

    Past Advice: Buy safe blue chip stocks like GM with good dividends.

    Today's Problems: If you were a stock holder or bond holder you were left holding the bag. Why? Unfriendly business environment from regulation. The government literally swooping up GM and making it private. Of course, the government now plans on IPO'ing the "new" GM.

    Past Advice: Get an IRA.

    Today's Problem: Oh Good Lord which scam now? Roth IRA? Regular IRA? 401K? Does it matter with the way government rocks the stock market? Does it matter since the government rewrites so many rules?

    One cannot even talk about savings accounts without regard to the government's influence in it. Hey, go out and make these mortgages! Oh, your going belly up? Hope you have less than 100K in your account. Oh wait, we changed our mind 250K. Um, for now. And no, you can't get your money back retroactively.

    And when government gets into something, politics gets into it.

    This is no free market. I think the closest we had to a free market was during Eisenhower. Its all government regulated or influenced in one way or another.
    Welcome to life and the real world. As long as you're living things change and adjustments have to be made- the ones who are aware and adjust quicky and intelligently avoid a lot of the fall out and many times prosper.

    Free Market looks and sounds great on paper but in practice only winds up benefiting a very select few at a great cost to a great many. Human nature what it is greed, selfishness and desire for power motivate a ruthless and selfish few to abuse the system for their own ends. If you could have a true Free Market with true competition it would probably work just fine. But because of the items mentioned earlier those with economic power will often form monopolies, supress technology, exploit workers,dupe customers and other nefarious things. Without an entity looking over them the great, great majority of people will have colossal problems much worse than governement interference. The industries with the least regulation have been the areas where the greatest amount of people have been hurt recently. Granted it is far from perfect but without government getting involved to regulate things on the publics behalf we would be back in fuedalism with a few ruthless powerful people owning and controlling everything and everyone.

    Things change and that's just life. One door closes and another opens. Manufacturing and Corporate jobs disappear or go overseas...start your own business. Strip club fees getting too high, attentance at the clubs is down.... start camming. You can bellyache and complain and blame anyone or anything all you want but the whole time you're doing that millions of others are seeing and seizing new opportunities and getting wealthy. Your taxes go up....make more money. If it gets to be too, too much and you really can't stand what your taxes are and where the money is going etc. move to another country. You can retain your U.S. citizenship and make $87,500 in earned income before you are liable for U.S. taxes.

    Without government envolvment most people would be paying $8 for a gallon of gas(if they could afford a car), making $2 an hour, eating tainted food and by and large suffering at the hands of mega corporations who would all be in cohoots with their only motivation being short-term quaterly profit at any expense.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    ^^^ Then people got to stop bitching about politics in Dollar Den cuz the government is there.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    [QUOTE=eagle2;1970717]What about when Lyndon Johnson was President, when we were fighting a major war in S.E. Asia and we started the Great Society without running up major debt? and what about when Nixon, Ford, and Jimmy Carter were in the WhiteHouse? They didn't run up nearly as much debt as Reagan and Bush.


    The budget for the fiscal year 2009, with a $1.4 trillion deficit, was set in place when Bush was President. Even the conservative Cato Institute acknowledges this.

    http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2009/...-2009-deficit/


    Moose Muffins ! Bush approved a $787 billion Porkulus package ? When ? How ? He had been out of affice for over a year ! That's HALF of Obama's deficit plus all the little scraps he's been throwing to this group and that. Plus TARP ; Plus Government Motors. It's OBAMA's Economy now. Get used to it.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    The entire $787 billion stimulus package was not spent in 2009. Duh!

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/22/us...p?xid=rss-page

    The president inherited a deficit for 2009 of about $1.2 trillion, which will rise to more than $1.5 trillion, given initial spending from his recently enacted stimulus package.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    What about when Lyndon Johnson was President, when we were fighting a major war in S.E. Asia and we started the Great Society without running up major debt? and what about when Nixon, Ford, and Jimmy Carter were in the WhiteHouse? They didn't run up nearly as much debt as Reagan and Bush.


    The budget for the fiscal year 2009, with a $1.4 trillion deficit, was set in place when Bush was President. Even the conservative Cato Institute acknowledges this.

    http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2009/...-2009-deficit/




    I agree there are a significant number of loopholes in our current tax system in the form of deductions and credits, and these should be looked at to reduced the deficit, in addition to increasing tax rates and cutting wasteful spending.
    Sigh. This is where it can get "tedious" as Mel and I have to keep going over the same economic history. LBJ enjoyed the benefits of JFK's tax cuts i.e. a booming economy and INCREASED revenues. However he did not raise taxes to pay for both the War and his Great Society programs. Nixon , Ford and Carter had to deal with the continual recessions and inflation until Volcker and Reagan took charge.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Deogol View Post
    ...
    And when government gets into something, politics gets into it.

    This is no free market. I think the closest we had to a free market was during Eisenhower. Its all government regulated or influenced in one way or another.
    You know the old wise saying -- 'too many crooks spoil the stew'

    (or is that cooks?)
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    More REALITY - Jobless claims UP . Again. Stock market down AGAIN. Yep. "Recovery Summer" is just humming along.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    ^^^ not to worry ... the 'experts' are still calling for a recovery. Of course, those 'experts' have a track record that I certainly wouldn't bet on ... YOU CAN"T MAKE THIS STUFF UP, FOLKS !!!


    (snip)58 out of 58 Economists Overoptimistic on Philly Fed Manufacturing Estimate

    Median Forecast +7 Actual Result -7.7, a "Veritable Disaster"
    They may call economics the "dismal science" but it would be hard pressed to find a more optimistic lot than economists, anywhere in private industry.

    Fresh on the heels of a perfect 42 of 42 overoptimistic predictions on weekly claims (Please see Weekly Unemployment Claims Hit 500,000, Exceed Every Economist's Estimate; No Lasting Improvement for 9 Months), a perfect 58 out of 58 Economists were overoptimistic regarding the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey.


    Unexpected Shrinkage
    Bloomberg reports Factories in Philadelphia Area Unexpectedly Shrink
    Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly shrank in August for the first time in a year as orders and sales slumped, a sign factories are being hurt by the U.S. economic slowdown.

    The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index fell to minus 7.7 this month, the lowest reading since July 2009, from 5.1 in July. Readings less than zero signal contraction in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

    Economists forecast the measure would rise to 7, according to the median of 58 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from minus 6 to 10.

    The Philadelphia Fed's survey was in sync with a report this week from the Fed Bank of New York. The bank's so-called Empire State Index increased less than forecast, as orders and sales cooled.


    Forecast for "More Modesty"!
    "We expect the recovery that we've seen in our business to continue, but in a more moderate pace than we've experienced in the first half," Chief Financial Officer Nicholas Fanandakis said on a conference call with analysts.

    Fed policy makers last week voted to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record low and made their first attempt to shore up a recovery they said was likely to be "more modest" than earlier anticipated.


    Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey
    With that undoubtedly overoptimistic "modest recovery" out of the way, please consider actual results from the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey.

    Results from the Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity weakened in August, after two months of slowing activity. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered negative readings this month.

    Firms also reported declines in employment and work hours. The survey's broad indicators of future activity continue to suggest that the region's manufacturing executives expect growth in business over the next six months, but optimism has waned notably in recent months.


    Indicators Suggest Weakness
    The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a reading of 5.1 in July to -7.7 in August. The index turned negative, marking a period of declining monthly activity for the first time since July 2009.

    Indexes for new orders and shipments also suggest a slowing this month; the new orders index fell slightly, to -7.1, while the shipments index turned negative, declining to -4.5. Indicating weakness, indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders remained negative this month.

    The percentage of firms reporting a decline in employment (23 percent) was higher than the percentage (20 percent) reporting an increase. More concerning was the significant drop in the average employee workweek index from 1.7 in July to -17.1 in August."(snip)

    from

    100% of mainstream economic 'experts' wrong ? Twice in the same week ? Seriously, YOU CAN"T MAKE THIS STUFF UP, FOLKS !!!

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    I would also add some detail from the Philly Fed Survey ...




    (snip)"The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of
    current activity, decreased from a reading of 5.1 in July to ‐7.7 in August. The index turned negative, marking a period of declining monthly activity for the first time since July 2009.

    Indexes for new orders and shipments also suggest a slowing this month; the new orders index fell slightly, to ‐7.1, while the shipments index turned negative, declining to ‐4.5. Indicating weakness, indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders remained negative this month.

    The percentage of firms reporting a decline in employment (23 percent) was higher than the percentage (20 percent) reporting an increase. More concerning was the significant drop in the average employee workweek index from 1.7 in July to ‐17.1 in August.

    Firms Report Lower Prices for Products

    On balance, firms reported declines in [sale - sic] prices for their own manufactured goods: More firms reported decreases in prices (19 percent) than reported increases (6 percent)."(snip)


    (snip)"This was not a "weak report" this was a "veritable disaster".

    Note that every component of the index except for prices paid is in contraction. This represents a massive squeeze on profits. [ as prices paid for raw materials increase while sale prices for end products simultaneously decrease - sic ]

    Also note the huge, widening spread between current conditions and future expectations. One of them is wrong and I suggest manufacturers are taking their clues from clueless economists who continually think things are going to get better."(snip)



    from

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    If they can investigate the mosque critics - we can investigate who these economists are and HOW THEY ARE PAID. The only other explanation is that modern economic theory has no way of dealing with the conditions and factors we are in today.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    ^^^ actually there is a third explanation ... which has been discussed in many previous threads ... that these economists are basing their analysis on 'bull$#it' official economic and employment data.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ actually there is a third explanation ... which has been discussed in many previous threads ... that these economists are basing their analysis on 'bull$#it' official economic and employment data.
    How about this ? : Too many economists are letting their wishes father their thoughts ; too many are using Keynesian models that do not permit them to adjust to actual realities i.e. they just can't believe all this government spending is NOT stimulating the economy.

    To piggyback on Mel's GIGO theory, I've already laid out in another thread how ridiculously unreliable the U.S. Dept. Of Labor's Payroll Survey actually is. It is based on a computer model that estimates how many new businesses are being created and how many new workers are being hired by said businesses regardless of whether or not they actually even exist in the first place. The proof of that is the annual DOL reconciliation when they have to add up and post the REAL employment numbers which NEVER match their earlier estimates.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 08-23-2010 at 11:04 AM.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    ^^^ which is precisely why many 'gold foil hat' economists are now disregarding official DOL numbers in favor of ADP's actual paycheck processing reports, disregarding official retail sales projections in favor of states' actual sales tax collections reports etc.

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    Default a brief, appreciative interjection...

    For what it's worth...
    I recognize that Dollar Den is a FREE resource, open to the public, accessible stripper-related (however contrived at times it may seem) forum and though the political & even seemingly US-centric fear-mongering discussion can get tiresome at times, believe me - some of us dancers are able to make sense of it, appreciate it for what it is, and even apply the knowledge! I've realized it is a great resource in so many ways, and if nothing else it inspires and educates me to read up on issues mentioned here that I didn't necessarily resonate with or know anything about. It's totally inspiring, and I've never felt alienated even though I don't start that many posts. So thanks to all of you who contribute because you've all offered answers whenever I asked!

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Let's ask this question --- has Melonie ever posted anything with good news?
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Good question.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    you want good news ? how about this ? Gold is above $1250 an ounce !

    you want more good news ? how about this ? Polls show the highest probability that 'big spending' democrats will lose congressional seats in November since polling began ... which will in all probability result in 2 years of 'gridlock' as far as new / additional gov't stimulus spending, gov't benefit spending, federal to state bailout spending etc. are concerned.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    To be fair, I've noticed most people shifting the focus of posts from "what do I do with my money" or "how do I get more money" to "So-and-so is guessing that such-and-such economy/business/government is totally fucked" over the last 2 years. Not my cup of tea but if that's what people are into, then that's cool
    Once again, the conservative, sandwich-heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor
    - Dr John Zoidberg

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    ^^^ A very valid point !!! However, while not wanting to blatantly offer any financial advice ( per the usual disclaimers ), if you check out other DD threads you'll find a number of consistent reveferences ....

    - gold has outperformed virtually every other investment over the past 5 years, and current market forces / gov't policy re the US dollar provide little reason to expect gold's future performance to suffer in the short term

    - agricultural commodities have recently begun an upswing in price, and current global market forces provide little reason to expect future prices of agricultural commodities to suffer in the short term

    - the Swiss Franc is increasingly being viewed as a 'safe harbor' in light of the PIIG problems ( which have not gone away ) and current gov't policy re encouraging US exports ( = weakening of the US dollar's exchange rate )

    - individual discussions have taken place re umpteen different publicly traded companies that are heavy beneficiaries of gov't stimulus / subsidy spending and/or gov't regulations acting in said companies favor. It's really difficult for such companies to 'lose' money !

    - as a result of US federal and state tax policy, municipal bonds are now being viewed as an increasingly valuable legal tax shelter for higher earning Americans. As such, demand for muni bonds is increasing and so is their price.

    Undoubtedly some DD readers have figured out that when I post threads on these and other economically relevant subjects, my reason for doing so goes deeper than a simple attempt to create controversy. However, unlike Jim Cramer or Suzie Ormond I'm not ever going to make specific and blunt financial recommendations ( or 'official' recommendations of any kind). And by sheer coincidence, any DD readers who actually decided to take financial action in response to those threads originally being posted more than likely made money by doing so.

    While this is nothing more than personal opinion ( again the usual disclaimers ), I will make a blunt statement that US businesses are currently sitting on over 2 trillion dollars worth of 'cash' ... which is arguably being hoarded because the owners / managers of those US businesses have little or no confidence that the direction of the US economy ( or the direction of those US businesses relative to their future role in the global economy ) has turned positive. I'll further state that the single most important factor affecting said US business confidence ( or lack thereof ) is now US gov't policy. Thus the date of November 2nd arguably looms HUGE in that regard ... and may provide for 'fortunes' to be made by those who place heavily leveraged 'winning bets' on US stock market futures before that date !!! And a very easy and 'low cost' means of placing such a leveraged 'bet' on US businesses might be via purchasing shares of 3x leveraged Russell 2000 Exchange Traded Funds TNA or TZA ( depending on whom you expect to win )

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 09-04-2010 at 07:52 AM.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    ^ I don't usually post in DD but Mel makes a solid point. 2010 (so far) has been nicely profitable for my business, largely due to all the cutbacks we implemented in 2009 and to a lesser extent an uptick in sales. We owners and rank and file have all been working our asses off which is likely the reason. I could probably justify hiring another few people but am sitting on my hands. I am very concerned about the expirations of the Bush tax cuts. I am very concerned about government run health care and the cost implications to my business. I will most likely just stay the course, not hire anyone and perhaps give the existing employees a nice bonus at year end once again asking and thanking them for their hard work.

    I suspect I am pretty typical of most small business owners.

    FBR
    Once again I have embraced my addiction and have put off the moral dilemma to another day.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    you want good news ? how about this ? Gold is above $1250 an ounce !
    And as the real estate market demonstrated, if something is highly valued right now, that means it will eventually keep rising and rising forever and ever!

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    you want more good news ? how about this ? Polls show the highest probability that 'big spending' democrats will lose congressional seats in November since polling began ... which will in all probability result in 2 years of 'gridlock' as far as new / additional gov't stimulus spending, gov't benefit spending, federal to state bailout spending etc. are concerned.
    The 'big spending' Democrats were forced to spend lots of money as a result of the severe economic crisis caused by the party Melonie helped vote into power.

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