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Thread: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post

    While this is nothing more than personal opinion ( again the usual disclaimers ), I will make a blunt statement that US businesses are currently sitting on over 2 trillion dollars worth of 'cash' ... which is arguably being hoarded because the owners / managers of those US businesses have little or no confidence that the direction of the US economy ( or the direction of those US businesses relative to their future role in the global economy ) has turned positive. I'll further state that the single most important factor affecting said US business confidence ( or lack thereof ) is now US gov't policy.
    ~
    As always, Melonie is making stuff up based on her ideology. In the mind of conservative ideologues, government is always the problem, never conservative ideology. In reality, the single most important factor affecting said US business confidence is demand is down. Businesses aren't going to invest and hire new employees if the demand isn't there for their products. Before the economic crisis, Americans were buying 17 million cars a year. Now they're buying 11 million. Obviously, car manufacturers aren't going to invest in new plants and start hiring new workers when the demand isn't there for their products, even though they're all making money.

    The real reason confidence is down is because, as Melonie pointed out in another thread, since the 1970's, US GDP has doubled (in constant dollars), while income has remained flat. About the only people who have benefited significantly from all of this economic growth are the wealthiest Americans. That is what happens when you put conservatives in power. If our government were to follow the policies Melonie seems to advocate, of paying American workers $2 an hour, we would be far worse off than we are now.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    ^^^ woah ... I'm not advocating anything, and especially not paying US$2 an hour to unskilled US workers. I merely point out that, at current US dollar exchange rates, unskilled US workers are effectively competing against foreign workers who do get paid US$2 an hour or less with essentially zero benefits. In terms of hard financial decision making, this means long term unemployed unskilled US workers will get paid $0 an hour in wages, but ~$12 an hour in extended unemployment checks and other gov't social welfare benefits for not working. So the important question really becomes how the US gov't intends to continue paying for unskilled US workers to sit at home for the rest of their lives, and what segment of other US workers ( or their children, or their grandchildren ) will wind up being stuck with the tab !

    And indeed I will agree with you that recent gov't policies since the Clinton era repeal of the Glass-Steagall act have incentivized the formation of fewer and larger businesses at the 'expense' of smaller businesses - which in turn have increased 'fat cat' earnings while at the same time eliminating unskilled US jobs due to mergers / consolidations. At the moment, one of the best places for 'fat cats' to be is the upper echelons of a Wall St financial firm or a bailed out auto company or a gov't subsidized 'green' industry !

    I also agree with you that, in relative terms, indeed US consumer demand is down. However, in absolute terms, demand is just re-balancing to a sustainable level of consumer spending equalling the disposable after-tax income of said consumers ... after experiencing years of unbalanced and unsustainable consumer spending of borrowed money ( arguably made possible by gov't policy re Fannie / Freddie ). So from much more than an ideological viewpoint, gov't policy changes contributed to the problem, encouraged the problem to grow bigger and bigger, and are now making the problem even worse !

    (snip)"I like the concept of a "contained depression".

    We are certainly in a depression. However, 40 million people on food stamps as of August 2010, masks that depression. The cost of the food stamp program is on schedule to exceed $60 billion in fiscal 2010. For comparison purposes, there was just over 11 million on food stamps in 2005.

    Please note there are 14.6 million unemployed, but of them 4.5 million of them are receiving regular unemployment benefits and another 4.7 million are receiving extended benefits [ thanks to repeated congressional re-approvals of extended benefit payments - sic]. Thus 63% of those unemployed are receiving benefits. Being paid while not working also masks the depression.

    In addition, there is massive underemployment with 8.5 million working "part time for economic reasons" and another 2.6 million "marginally attached" workers who want a job but are not considered unemployed because they have not looked for 4 weeks. This is "containment" of sorts, as the official numbers mask the depth of the unemployment problem.

    Finally, countless millions have not paid their mortgage for months or even a year without being foreclosed on [ thanks to gov't HAMP process mandates - sic]. Free from mortgage expenses but having a place to live certainly makes life a lot easier."(snip)

    from

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 09-04-2010 at 02:13 PM.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    I could probably justify hiring another few people but am sitting on my hands. I am very concerned about the expirations of the Bush tax cuts. I am very concerned about government run health care and the cost implications to my business. I will most likely just stay the course, not hire anyone and perhaps give the existing employees a nice bonus at year end once again asking and thanking them for their hard work.

    I suspect I am pretty typical of most small business owners.
    Indeed I hear this from quite a few US businessmen vacationing down here way south of the border. And I also hear it from vacationing businessmen from many Western European countries ( and in particular the UK ). The common thread in all cases is that none of these businessmen have a firm 'handle' on what sort of 'mandated costs' they will actually be subject to next year ... with 'mandated costs' being income taxes, employee benefit costs, regulatory compliance costs, energy / utility costs etc. And without confidence in their future cost picture, which could greatly impact their profit margins, these businessmen are smart enough to understand that if expanding their business actually translates into 'churning more dollars but earning less dollars' - while at the same time forcing them to take on more personal workload, more managerial headaches, and more financial risk - that it makes no logical sense to do so !!!

    From a personal standpoint, when these businessmen decide to lighten their workload and spend more of their time and profits vacationing down here way south of the border ... and sometimes wishing to share some of that time and profits with a large breasted expatriate who understands where they are 'coming from' ... it suits me just fine !!! Unfortunately, this situation doesn't do much to help unemployed workers in the US or UK.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 09-04-2010 at 02:41 PM.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ A very valid point !!! However, while not wanting to blatantly offer any financial advice ( per the usual disclaimers ), if you check out other DD threads you'll find a number of consistent reveferences ....
    ~
    I'm not disagreeing with you - if you can predict macroeconomic trends then of course you can make money off it. I'm just saying that most people seem to be posting along these lines, not just you with your "bad news"
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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    I have stayed out this discussion thinking it would slide ........ guess not.

    Over the years I have posted mostly in the Dollar Den. I am a banker and not a stripper. I have great respect for strippers so I try to help with any tid bits I can. During this time I have debated Melonie on alot of past threads. I do not always agree with Melonie. But many of her predictions have come to pass.

    Its easy to say oh its all doom and gloom things arent bad. The reality IS things are bad and no one knows how to fix it. I dont think Melonie is a negative person. I am not a conservative but im not blind either.
    Nature knows no indecencies; man invents them. ~ Mark Twain


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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Vamp View Post
    Its easy to say oh its all doom and gloom things arent bad. The reality IS things are bad and no one knows how to fix it. I dont think Melonie is a negative person. I am not a conservative but im not blind either.
    Whether she is a negative person or not (I'm sure she has many positive traits), the fact is Melonie posts exclusively negative news & comments with a decidedly conservative slant.

    "The reality is things are bad"?? All things, for all people? Is it possible some things for some people are good? Is it possible that some seemingly bad things will turn out to be good as time passes? Is the glass half empty, or half full?

    The thing about thinking things are good or bad is that one of them makes you feel bad, and the other doesn't. It makes no sense, in my opinion, to be blind to the good that is happening. A positive mental attitude is good for hockeybobbys, strippers, and bankers....wouldn't you agree?

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeybobby View Post
    Whether she is a negative person or not (I'm sure she has many positive traits), the fact is Melonie posts exclusively negative news & comments with a decidedly conservative slant.

    "The reality is things are bad"?? All things, for all people? Is it possible some things for some people are good? Is it possible that some seemingly bad things will turn out to be good as time passes? Is the glass half empty, or half full?

    The thing about thinking things are good or bad is that one of them makes you feel bad, and the other doesn't. It makes no sense, in my opinion, to be blind to the good that is happening. A positive mental attitude is good for hockeybobbys, strippers, and bankers....wouldn't you agree?
    Since this forum is about money and the discussions in question are about the economy ... that is what i was referencing. More plainly put the economy is bad. It isn't recovering. All the regulations, bailouts , and spin they have made to fix it havent done anything. Might of slowed the bleeding but there is still a massive wound.

    Things bad for me? Hell no. I have more business then I can handle. Does that make the economy better? no. I am dealing with these new regulations daily. They dont change anything except the paperwork.

    Look bottom line is this, people can either bury their heads in the sand and pretend all is right with the world or they can read the writing on the wall and prepare for it. If we just get hung up about politics .. which is what the media continues to drum up ... and not the facts nothing will change. Read the facts between the lines.
    Nature knows no indecencies; man invents them. ~ Mark Twain


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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    ^^^ thanks Vamp for injecting some objectivity, as well as again pointing out that DD is supposed to be about money and the economy ( well, to the degree that it's still possible to discuss money and the economy without having to deal with gov'ts economic policy effects, anyhow - which is NOT ).


    Things bad for me? Hell no. I have more business then I can handle. Does that make the economy better? no
    Indeed not everyone is negatively affected by current economic conditions. In fact, I'm actually embarrassed and guilty to tell any of you how well my precious metals, Swiss Francs, and other investments have performed this year. Same is true of the vacationing north american and western european businessmen whose private yachts continue to sail into my cay ! But the fact remains that 'regular people' are paying the price for the increased profitability of those businessmen ( which are mainly due to firing some of those 'regular people'), as well as 'regular people's typical savings and investments treading water at best.

    And where dancers are concerned, with the exception of some small percentage of upscale dancers who are in a position to 'cash in' on a customer base consisting of those profitable upscale businessmen, most dancers depend on 'regular people' as their customer base. Thus if 'regular people' are doing poorly from an economic standpoint this will directly affect the earnings potential of those dancers !!!

    Putting on 'rose colored glasses' will not change this economic reality for those dancers. However, recognizing that today's bad dancer earnings potential situation is not likely to get better anytime soon DOES provide these dancers an opportunity to take actions which may mitigate the personal impact ... from staying out of debt on the expenditures side, to relocating to a different state where the customer base is more upscale and the state / local tax burden allows them to keep a greater amount of their earnings, to investing in themselves to the point of being able to move to more upscale clubs on the income side !

    I dont think Melonie is a negative person
    Thank you for recognizing this !!! But for better or worse, like yourself I can't play 'Ostrich' in regard to the actual state of the economy even though I have personally managed to avoid being impacted by it in a negative way.

    Melonie posts exclusively negative news & comments with a decidedly conservative slant.
    If I don't post about such things, usually nobody else will ! And I would argue strenuously that your 'conservative' should actually be 'objective'. In my own defense I must make a blunt and politically incorrect statement ... when 'official' gov't statistics and mainstream financial media reports choose to spin / cherry-pick / selectively report on actual financial facts in ( what one must assume to be a deliberate ) attempt to portray the true economic situation in far more optimistic terms than is actually the case, then anybody who points out the 'holes' is automatically cast in a negative light. Hell, I even attempted to post some truly 'doom and gloom' stuff from various authors in order to create some perspective that my posts are nowhere near as 'doomy and gloomy' as some of the stuff being floated. All that got me was additional criticism !

    In the final analysis, there is really only one set of facts for everyone. If some of those facts are negative ( and unfortunately, at the moment, the vast majority of them are), please don't 'blame the messenger' for that negativity !

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 09-05-2010 at 06:19 AM.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Oh come on Mel, you've been posting your conservative ideology every day I've been on this site....regardless of the state of the economy. Objective? Yeah right.

    Sure strippers should be careful about debt, and change clubs to improve their situation if it makes sense, but improving their lot is best served by avoiding your posts at all costs. A negative attitude is death for a salesperson....anyone really. This is a support site for strippers. Telling them the country is fucked every day is not helpful.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    I remeber years ago (when I was a new born banker ) Melonie talking about banks buying up subprime securities with their assets. She was predicting those securities would tank and the banks with them. I responded by saying banks wouldnt cut their own throats ...........
    I have learned alot since then ... I will even admit DEBATING Melonie has helped that learning process. Learning outside the box, canned, pasturized process that is spoon fed us is important.

    I have clients that come in to see me every day that ask me what is going on, how bad is it, what can they do? These are face to face discussions. The reason I have so much business is because I tell them the truth. I don't sugar coat it. People give me their money to take care of because my motto is plan for the worst and hope for the best. Some think I am negative. But i still keep their money safe.

    Look this is a forum. Debating is a healthy. The problem is no one is debating. If you want other views expressed, Express them! Everyone thinks there is a better way but no one wants to put in the time. They just want Melonie to change it seems.

    I dont agree with Melonie on ALOT of things. But i think it is safe to say her financial advise on this forum has helped more strippers then anyone else's.
    Nature knows no indecencies; man invents them. ~ Mark Twain


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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeybobby View Post
    Oh come on Mel, you've been posting your conservative ideology every day I've been on this site....regardless of the state of the economy. Objective? Yeah right.

    Sure strippers should be careful about debt, and change clubs to improve their situation if it makes sense, but improving their lot is best served by avoiding your posts at all costs. A negative attitude is death for a salesperson....anyone really. This is a support site for strippers. Telling them the country is fucked every day is not helpful.
    This!! I avoid these negative posts at all costs, because well, they just aren't helpful in any way. The ONLY thing they do it cause my attitude and confidence to tank. Negative attitude = shitty money. It really is as simple as that.
    "I hear you calling and it's needles and pins. I wanna hurt you just to hear you screaming my name...You're poision. but I don't wanna break these chains.... I wanna love you but I'd better not touch."

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Vamp View Post
    I have clients that come in to see me every day that ask me what is going on, how bad is it, what can they do?
    I doubt you are advising them to leave the country to avoid taxes, or stock up on gold, guns, and groceries. I imagine your advice would mesh nicely with the products your bank offers...which is just good business/salesmanship.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeybobby View Post
    I doubt you are advising them to leave the country to avoid taxes, or stock up on gold, guns, and groceries. I imagine your advice would mesh nicely with the products your bank offers...which is just good business/salesmanship.

    We discuss gold and worse case scenerios. Yes some of what I discuss leads back to the products our financial institution offers but not all of them. I do not play a used car sales man song and dance. In any case that was just an example.

    From the sounds of it you want Zig Ziglar and Tony Robbins in the dollar den.

    btw there is a Dancer's Wealth program .... she posts in the hustle hut

    I do not post here about salesmanship because I am not a stripper. But I have answered questions about getting a loan for a car, house, rebuilding credit, debit card disputes, IRA etc.
    Last edited by Vamp; 09-05-2010 at 09:34 AM.
    Nature knows no indecencies; man invents them. ~ Mark Twain


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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Vamp View Post
    From the sounds of it you want Zig Ziglar and Tony Robbins in the dollar den.
    If their message is "the sky is not actually falling today"....any messenger will do....even Borat.


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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    ^ HB those of us who have concerns are not that comical figure.

    FBR
    Once again I have embraced my addiction and have put off the moral dilemma to another day.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    FBR: you are a wise, battle hardened businessman. You've weathered this, and many other storms. Stay nimble...but don't forget to smell the RR Roses. You live in the second best country in the world (next to Canada ), fear not.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ woah ... I'm not advocating anything, and especially not paying US$2 an hour to unskilled US workers. I merely point out that, at current US dollar exchange rates, unskilled US workers are effectively competing against foreign workers who do get paid US$2 an hour or less with essentially zero benefits. In terms of hard financial decision making, this means long term unemployed unskilled US workers will get paid $0 an hour in wages, but ~$12 an hour in extended unemployment checks and other gov't social welfare benefits for not working. So the important question really becomes how the US gov't intends to continue paying for unskilled US workers to sit at home for the rest of their lives, and what segment of other US workers ( or their children, or their grandchildren ) will wind up being stuck with the tab !
    There are still plenty of unskilled labor jobs paying $12 an hour in this country that can't be performed by workers in other countries for $2 an hour. There are jobs in the retail, construction, restaurant, airline and health care industries to name a few. There is still manufacturing. A significant numbers of American workers are employed in the auto manufacturing, steel, and aerospace industries. In addition, just because someone is an unskilled worker doesn't mean they can't go to school and acquire skills that are in demand. The current number of employed unskilled workers has fallen as a result of the economic downturn, especially in the construction industry, but this doesn't mean that every unskilled worker is going to spend the rest of their life sitting at home collecting unemployment or welfare. Just because the unemployment rate is high now, doesn't mean it's going to stay that way forever.

    There are a number of trends that will improve the employment outlook in the future. As I mentioned before, over the next 20 years, 75 million baby-boomers will be retiring. In addition, the number of available workers in other countries will be falling also. With China's one-child policy, the number of workers entering the labor force there is falling. The same thing in Mexico, where the birth-rate has fallen significantly. The situation isn't going to turn around over night, but over time, things will get better.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    And indeed I will agree with you that recent gov't policies since the Clinton era repeal of the Glass-Steagall act have incentivized the formation of fewer and larger businesses at the 'expense' of smaller businesses - which in turn have increased 'fat cat' earnings while at the same time eliminating unskilled US jobs due to mergers / consolidations. At the moment, one of the best places for 'fat cats' to be is the upper echelons of a Wall St financial firm or a bailed out auto company or a gov't subsidized 'green' industry !
    except for the ones that got fired.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    I also agree with you that, in relative terms, indeed US consumer demand is down. However, in absolute terms, demand is just re-balancing to a sustainable level of consumer spending equalling the disposable after-tax income of said consumers ... after experiencing years of unbalanced and unsustainable consumer spending of borrowed money ( arguably made possible by gov't policy re Fannie / Freddie ). So from much more than an ideological viewpoint, gov't policy changes contributed to the problem, encouraged the problem to grow bigger and bigger, and are now making the problem even worse !
    It wasn't just Fannie / Freddie providing credit to consumers that were on a spending spree in the years before the crisis.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    (snip)"I like the concept of a "contained depression".

    We are certainly in a depression. However, 40 million people on food stamps as of August 2010, masks that depression. The cost of the food stamp program is on schedule to exceed $60 billion in fiscal 2010. For comparison purposes, there was just over 11 million on food stamps in 2005.

    Please note there are 14.6 million unemployed, but of them 4.5 million of them are receiving regular unemployment benefits and another 4.7 million are receiving extended benefits [ thanks to repeated congressional re-approvals of extended benefit payments - sic]. Thus 63% of those unemployed are receiving benefits. Being paid while not working also masks the depression.

    In addition, there is massive underemployment with 8.5 million working "part time for economic reasons" and another 2.6 million "marginally attached" workers who want a job but are not considered unemployed because they have not looked for 4 weeks. This is "containment" of sorts, as the official numbers mask the depth of the unemployment problem.

    Finally, countless millions have not paid their mortgage for months or even a year without being foreclosed on [ thanks to gov't HAMP process mandates - sic]. Free from mortgage expenses but having a place to live certainly makes life a lot easier."(snip)

    from http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...epression.html

    ~
    It's still a lot better than in the 1930's when if you didn't have money to buy food, you went hungry.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by Vamp View Post
    Since this forum is about money and the discussions in question are about the economy ... that is what i was referencing. More plainly put the economy is bad. It isn't recovering. All the regulations, bailouts , and spin they have made to fix it havent done anything. Might of slowed the bleeding but there is still a massive wound.

    Things bad for me? Hell no. I have more business then I can handle. Does that make the economy better? no. I am dealing with these new regulations daily. They dont change anything except the paperwork.

    Look bottom line is this, people can either bury their heads in the sand and pretend all is right with the world or they can read the writing on the wall and prepare for it. If we just get hung up about politics .. which is what the media continues to drum up ... and not the facts nothing will change. Read the facts between the lines.
    Nobody is saying that all is right with the world. The employment situation is bad and will probably stay bad for some time. I don't know of anyone denying it. It doesn't mean everything is bad. Inflation is low. Hundreds of thousands of workers aren't being laid off every month like they were a year and a half ago. For anyone looking to buy a house, housing is more affordable than it's been in probably decades. The stock market has been doing well over the past year and a half. The doom and gloom predictions Melonie frequently posts have not come true and probably won't. There aren't any food riots in the US. The shelves in the grocery stores are full. The US government hasn't defaulted on Treasury Bills. Interest rates are low. American auto manufacturers haven't gone bankrupt. There's no hyper-inflation or 50% inflation here. For those Americans who don't have a job and want one, things are bad, but our country is not on the verge of collapse.

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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeybobby View Post
    If their message is "the sky is not actually falling today"....any messenger will do....even Borat.
    I've never found a good source, but people say he used to be a quant at Golden Sacks. Mad respect.
    http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum...analyst-for-gs
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    Default Re: Dollar Den of Doom and reality

    The shelves in the grocery stores are full
    yes, but recently with smaller package sizes and higher 'unit' prices

    The US government hasn't defaulted on Treasury Bills
    technically true at the federal level ( to the degree that foreign US T bond owners are getting paid back in devalued dollars versus their home currency Yen or Euros ). Already not true at the state level ( example PA missed bond payment coming out of the pocket of the bond insurer this month )

    Interest rates are low
    Partially true in that gov't subsidized interest rates for certain borrowers are low and that interest rates paid to savers are low. However, without a gov't sanction, market interest rates are already rather high if an actual approval of the loan can be found at all ( example $1 million real estate, consumer credit cards, used cars )

    American auto manufacturers haven't gone bankrupt
    Oh please ! FORD hasn't gone bankrupt ! And all have received billions in gov't grant money / gov't guarantees of unfunded pensions, etc.

    There's no hyper-inflation or 50% inflation here
    true at the moment, and on the average. However, there has been MAJOR price inflation in the area of 'necessities' counterbalanced by price deflation in the area of 'luxuries'.

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  1. A little vaccine for The Dollar Den of Doom!
    By Deogol in forum Dollar Den
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 10-05-2009, 11:00 AM
  2. Replies: 8
    Last Post: 07-06-2009, 09:05 AM
  3. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 03-17-2007, 04:50 AM

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