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Thread: Sick "Canaries - Americans drop cable TV subscriptions, movie tickets, 'nice' retail

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    Default Sick "Canaries - Americans drop cable TV subscriptions, movie tickets, 'nice' retail

    you know things are starting to get bad on the home front ...

    (snip)"
    10 Leading Retailers Close Stores; Exodus of Small Retailers Amidst Signs of "Free Rent"; 700,000 Drop Cable TV Subscriptions

    Signs of weak consumer discretionary spending are popping up in multiple places. For example Subscriber growth suddenly stops for cable TV industry

    According to data gathered by market research firm SNL Kagan, cable companies saw a noticeable drop in the total number of subscribers during the second quarter of 2010, a first for an industry that has thus far seen nothing but growth.

    The number of cable subscribers dropped by 711,000, according to SNL Kagan, with six out of eight cable providers reporting their worst quarterly subscriber losses to date. Other parts of the industry were able to add just enough subscribers to make the net loss more like 216,000. Cable's share of the pay-TV market dropped slightly too, from 63.6 percent to just 61 percent during the quarter.

    Exodus of Small Retailers Amidst Signs of "Free Rent"

    The Toledo Blade comments 'Free rent' signs of trouble

    Commercial real estate agent Joe Belinske never thought retail life could be like it is today on Monroe Street near Westfield Franklin Park mall. "Monroe Street used to rent itself. People never put out 'For Lease' sign. You didn't have to market it," said Mr. Belinske of CB Richard Ellis/Reichle Klein, a Toledo commercial real estate firm.

    But these days all along the Monroe Street-Talmadge Avenue corridor - the Toledo area's crown jewel of commercial real estate - times are tough. "For Lease" signs have proliferated on Monroe from Sylvania Avenue past Talmadge to the Target shopping plaza. Some of the signs feature a shocking indicator of hard times: "Free rent."

    Area rents have fallen significantly, and what was the price for hidden space in strip malls that looked away from the road, is the going price for better sites that look straight out onto Monroe.

    Several large signature properties - the closed Circuit City store and former Lone Star Steakhouse on Monroe, and the Smokey Bones Barbeque and Grill on Talmadge - have remained closed for more than 18 months.

    Also worrisome, commercial real estate experts say, is it seems like more small retailers have left the retail corridor than have arrived in the last few years.

    10 Leading Retailers Close Stores

    Daily Finance reports 10 Big Retailers Closing Stores

    Both Saks (SKS) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) said they were closing stores in several parts of the country. Meanwhile, other stores like the struggling Blockbuster video rental chain, continue to slash stores by the dozens. American Apparel (APP), which is close to defaulting on its loans, just may be next.

    Consumers just aren't shopping the way they used to. Even Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), which typically fares well during tough economic times, is worried. "The slow economic recovery will continue to affect our customers, and we expect they will remain cautious about spending," said president and CEO Mike Duke in a statement that was released during the company's second quarter earnings report.

    Retail Closing Scorecard

    Saks 5: The lux department store company plans to close two Saks Fifth Avenue stores in Plano, Texas, and Mission Viejo, Calif. That's in addition to stores in San Diego, Portland, Ore., and Charleston, S.C., that Saks closed a month earlier. CEO Steve Sadove said there may be more store closings to come this year.

    French Connection 17: The clothing company with the edgy "FCUK" ads closed all but six of its U.S. stores as part of a reorganization. It says it will focus on selling its clothes at department stores. It also closed all 21 of its stores in Japan and sold its Nicole Farhi apparel line.

    A&P 25: The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. (GAP) said it will close 25 grocery stores across five states by the end of the third quarter as part of a turnaround strategy.

    American Eagle Outfitters 28: American Eagle Outfitters followed Abercrombie & Fitch into the adult market with its Martin + Osa chain, but just like Abercrombie's Ruehl, it didn't work out. American Eagle announced in the spring that the 28 M+O stores and the online business would shut down.

    Winn-Dixie Stores 30: Winn-Dixie Stores (WINN) announced in late July that it will close 30 older and under-performing stores by Sept. 22.

    Bebe Stores 48: The women's apparel chain announced in July that it would shutter all 48 PH8 stores after a year of flagging sales.

    Men's Wearhouse 50-60: CEO George Zimmer told analysts that the company now plans to close 50 to 60 Tux stores this year.

    Abercrombie & Fitch 110: Abercrombie & Fitch will close nearly 60 under-performing stores in 2010, most of them towards the end of the year. In a recent conference call, CFO Jonathan Ramsden said another 50 stores could close in 2011. The company already closed 11 stores during the first half of the year, mainly at its flagship Abercrombie & Fitch and Abercrombie stores.

    Charming Shoppes 100-120: Charming Shoppes (CHRS), the parent of apparel stores Lane Bryant and Fashion Bug, plans to close 100 to 120 stores this fiscal year. After announcing a rough end to 2009, management said it planned to reduce its real estate costs by renegotiating with its landlords. As part of those initiatives, CFO Eric Specter said the company has begun reviewing its lineup of stores, looking for locations that are under-performing and will close those where it can't get better lease terms.

    Blockbuster 500-545: Under assault by video-on-demand and online video rentals, Blockbuster (BLOKA) announced earlier this year that it plans to close 500 to 545 stores in 2010. That's in addition to the 374 it closed last year.

    There are more details in the article.

    Retail Sales Numbers

    Please keep those store closings in mind when retail sales numbers are reported.

    The numbers are typically reported as percentage increases and decreases of "same store sales". If retailers all close weak stores, reported "same store sales" go up. However, total aggregate sales don't.

    Moreover, one also needs to factor in store closings. From the Toledo article "Several large signature properties - the closed Circuit City store and former Lone Star Steakhouse on Monroe, and the Smokey Bones Barbeque and Grill on Talmadge - have remained closed for more than 18 months."

    Some of those sales vanished into thin air, some of it went to other stores exaggerating "same store sales".

    This is the reason one must analyze sales tax revenue instead of relying on "same store sales" for consumer spending estimates."(snip)

    from

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    Default Re: Canary in the Coal Mine - 700,000 Americans drop cable TV subscriptions

    another 'canary' has stopped chirping as well ...

    (snip)"Summer Movie Box-Office Attendance Falls to Lowest Since 1997

    Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Summer movie attendance fell to the lowest level since 1997, while soaring ticket prices produced record revenue for Hollywood studios and cinema operators.

    The number of tickets sold from the first weekend of May through the U.S. Labor Day weekend is expected to drop 2.6 percent to 552 million, Hollywood.com Box-Office said today in an e-mailed statement. That would be the lowest attendance since summer moviegoers bought 540.3 million tickets in 1997. (snip)

    (snip)Box-office revenue will rise 2.4 percent a record $4.35 billion in the U.S. and Canada as higher prices more than make up for the lower attendance. The average ticket price will rise 5.1 percent to $7.88 from last year’s $7.50, the biggest increase since a 6.3 percent jump in 2000, Hollywood.com said. (snip)

    from



    For any dancers who are having difficulty "connecting the dots", consider that movie theatre tickets, premium channel cable television subscriptions, and semi-upscale retail purchases all share a common thread. In essence they are all 'non-essential' discretionary expenditures. And they are all falling.

    The implication of course is that for the same pool of customers, going to a strip club also represents a 'non-essential' discretionary expenditure ... an expenditure that indirectly competes with going to the movies, or watching premium cable TV channels, or purchasing 'nice' retail products.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 08-30-2010 at 10:57 PM.

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    Default Re: Sick "Canaries - Americans drop cable TV subscriptions, movie tickets, 'nice' ret

    I can't comment one way or another on the other things but the drop in cable TV can be attributed to other things that have nothing to do with the economy. There are many other "new platforms" available for getting the content that used to come excluslivley VIA Cable. You can watch TV and movies on your I-phone or on your home PC so it is naturtal that a number of people no longer buy cable. Watch sales are down, is that becuase of the economy? No it is because most 20 somethings these days no longer wear watches, they use their ever present cell phone. They also don't have old fashoined copper wired "Ma Bell" home phone service. Is that because of the economy or is it becuase they now use only their cell phones or have VOIP based service IE Vonage, Magic Jack etc. Bookstores are getting less and less is that because of the economy or because people buy them online from Amazon or use "readers" like Kindle or on your I-phone/I-pad or just a regular PC.

    The "economy" is NOT the explanation for everything.

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    Default Re: Sick "Canaries - Americans drop cable TV subscriptions, movie tickets, 'nice' ret

    When the day comes that it is the norm that you can buy your new Camaro or Corvette from Chevy.com and it just shows up in your driveway in a week or two will all those closed dealerships be sign of a bad economy or just sign of a diferent one?

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    Default Re: Sick "Canaries - Americans drop cable TV subscriptions, movie tickets, 'nice' ret

    ^^^ your theory definitely holds true for some number of cases. The question then becomes whether or not the amount of money being spent on 'substitute' products is significant compared to the 'conventional' products. Where falling movie ticket sales is concerned this can't be substitution since Blockbuster movie rentals and cable TV movie watching are all falling at the same time.

    As to watch / jewelry sales, there were a couple of weekend stories discussing 'a tale of two economies' which pointed out that Tiffany sales of super-upscale merchandise is UP, while sales at middle class Zales is way down ... which logically corresponds to the investment income of the rich being up while the after tax income of the middle class is down. And the posted info above clearly indicates that store closures are occurring in certain areas only. So it's difficult to buy 'substitution' versus 'poor economy'.

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    Default Re: Sick "Canaries - Americans drop cable TV subscriptions, movie tickets, 'nice' ret

    So it's a bad economy. That is not news anymore. Everyone is battening up the hatches.

    It's sort of like a traffic jam that had a reason for it once but doesn't anymore and you don't know why you're still in it.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Sick "Canaries - Americans drop cable TV subscriptions, movie tickets, 'nice' ret

    Quote Originally Posted by threlayer View Post
    So it's a bad economy. That is not news anymore. Everyone is battening up the hatches.

    It's sort of like a traffic jam that had a reason for it once but doesn't anymore and you don't know why you're still in it.
    I think the question is whether it's a recession or depression - whether it's a blip in the radar or a full out fundamental change.

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    Default Re: Sick "Canaries - Americans drop cable TV subscriptions, movie tickets, 'nice' ret

    does this look like a 'blip on the radar' ?






    from


    No, any question of the current economic situation being just one more recession is moot ... it's the longest and deepest recession since the 1930's !!! However, that wasn't the point of this thread.

    The actual point was that, unlike the 1930's, this time around soup kitchens have been replaced with SNAP cards ( i.e. electronic food stamps ) and selling pencils out of a tin cup has been replaced with 99 weeks worth of 'unemployment' checks. The actual point was that, until very recently, these generous gov't benefits for the long term unemployed has allowed the severity of this recession to be masked - and also allowed the long term unemployed to avoid having to face an actual 'day of reckoning' i.e. permanently adjusting their lifestyle / standard of living downward to reflect new economic realities. The actual point was that this longest and deepest recession since the 1930's is now lasting longer than those 99 weeks.

    But the REAL point of this thread was that, despite 99 weeks worth of extended gov't 'handouts', and because of rising taxes and rising costs of 'necessities', many Americans are now at long last beginning to experience a 'reality attack' that their former lifestyle / standard of living is simply unsustainable going forward. Arguably this is already resulting in a 'fundamental change' - with the first hard evidence of that fundamental change listed in the title of this thread.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 09-05-2010 at 05:29 AM.

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    Default Re: Sick "Canaries - Americans drop cable TV subscriptions, movie tickets, 'nice' ret

    Quote Originally Posted by Deogol View Post
    I think the question is whether it's a recession or depression - whether it's a blip in the radar or a full out fundamental change.
    Well, it's certainly the biggest blip we've seen in several generations. Your final comment is surely the big question for this decade. (So far.)

    But Mel's post doesn't answer this; people are dropping non-essentials. Like the most affected do in any recession.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Sick "Canaries - Americans drop cable TV subscriptions, movie tickets, 'nice' ret

    well, here's what Canada's Globe and Mail thinks ...

    (snip)"U.S. jobless rate hints at permanent shift

    As the United States continues its battle with high unemployment, policy makers are confronting a troubling question: What if they’ve been taking the wrong approach to fixing the ailing job market?

    The latest government survey showed on Friday that the jobless rate was 9.6 per cent in August, the 12th consecutive month that unemployment was at or above 9.5 per cent.

    That’s a poor return on the hundreds of billions the Obama administration, backed by Congress, has poured into the economy over the last couple of years, and on the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold its benchmark interest rate near zero since December of 2008.

    Policy makers around the world directed their recession-fighting efforts at propping up consumer demand that they assumed would return once the crisis had passed.

    In some countries, including Canada, this approach worked. But not in the United States, humbling for a country that has long prided itself on a labour market that was considered the most resilient and flexible in the world.

    And some prominent economists and policy makers are now suggesting the real problem isn’t lack of consumer spending – it’s that the unemployed don’t have the right skills to fill the jobs that are open.

    These people are now theorizing that the financial crisis has altered the structure of the U.S. labour market, perhaps permanently.

    If they’re right, the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve will need to change their approach to increasing employment because their current one, which is aimed at stoking spending, could end up exacerbating the conditions that led to the financial crisis."(snip)

    (snip)"Mr. Obama said he would elaborate on the policies he has in mind next week. The Wall Street Journal and Washington Post, citing unnamed officials, reported this week that the President is weighing a package of tax breaks, including a temporary reduction of payroll levies.

    Measures of that kind suggest the White House continues to view the weakness in the labour market as a cyclical problem that can be fixed by continuing to prop up demand.

    That might disappoint Prof. Rajan, but it would be fine by Gary Burtless, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution and a former economist at the U.S. Labour Department.

    In an interview, Mr. Burtless called the argument that the U.S. is suffering from a skills mismatch “nonsensical” because employment in most industries has declined over the last couple of years, suggesting there is little work to be had – period. It’s possible that some specific occupations are understaffed, but if there’s a broad misalignment between available jobs and available workers, Mr. Burtless insists it doesn’t show up in the labour statistics.

    The problem, he says, is much simpler to understand, if no easier to solve: “What we are looking at is the mother of all business-cycle downturns.”"(snip)


    from

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    Default Re: Sick "Canaries - Americans drop cable TV subscriptions, movie tickets, 'nice' ret

    Obviously The Globe and Mail is a goof run site - they aren't helping with all this hum drum news. If we can think it, it will be true! I heard that somewhere.

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    Default Re: Sick "Canaries - Americans drop cable TV subscriptions, movie tickets, 'nice' ret

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    well, here's what Canada's Globe and Mail thinks ...

    (snip)"U.S. jobless rate hints at permanent shift ...

    And some prominent economists and policy makers are now suggesting the real problem isn’t lack of consumer spending – it’s that the unemployed don’t have the right skills to fill the jobs that are open.
    There is some truth to that theory. Where I live and work, the computer gaming industry is large and growing. But, all the game companies here report that they are having a tough time finding people with the requisite skill set. Further, they see a lot of job jumping to competitors with higher pay.

    These people are now theorizing that the financial crisis has altered the structure of the U.S. labour market, perhaps permanently.
    I have the suspicion that our less than impressive public schools have a lot to do with the problem as well.

    In an interview, Mr. Burtless called the argument that the U.S. is suffering from a skills mismatch “nonsensical” because employment in most industries has declined over the last couple of years, suggesting there is little work to be had – period. It’s possible that some specific occupations are understaffed, but if there’s a broad misalignment between available jobs and available workers, Mr. Burtless insists it doesn’t show up in the labour statistics.

    The problem, he says, is much simpler to understand, if no easier to solve: “What we are looking at is the mother of all business-cycle downturns.”"
    (snip)
    Mr. Burtless seems to ignore the possibility that two things are happening at once.

    Z

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    Default Re: Sick "Canaries - Americans drop cable TV subscriptions, movie tickets, 'nice' ret

    Quote Originally Posted by Zofia View Post
    There is some truth to that theory. Where I live and work, the computer gaming industry is large and growing. But, all the game companies here report that they are having a tough time finding people with the requisite skill set. Further, they see a lot of job jumping to competitors with higher pay.
    Yea, I work in a technology where it costs $5,000 just to get the compiler. Mysteriously they have a hard time finding such programmers. I mean, won't all unemployed people roll the dice on buying that tech hoping an employer will take them seriously on it?

    I mean, choose technology that isn't used often, is too expensive to learn on one's own, and they cannot find people for it? Amazing! Some study must be made on this!

    A lot of tech employers these days are just out of touch with reality.

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    Default Re: Sick "Canaries - Americans drop cable TV subscriptions, movie tickets, 'nice' ret

    ^^ This is the problem with technical jobs. The hiring managers are too busy to deal with hiring so they give the job to HR. HR says give me the job specs; then they look puzzled at what all that means; the hiring manager doesn't have time to educate them. so HR goes out looking for a person to fill that exact spec. As if they are buyers looking for precision parts. Of course HR has no tolerance because they only know the job spec. They see 1000 digital resumes from which they select 5 or 10 'parts' for evaluation; 500 of those resumes were sent out shotgun with no idea what the specs meant. They pass up probably 50 people who could have done the job but are slightly 'out of spec' or left out one critical word. Of course after initial correspondence, no one fits the job spec exactly, so they have to go thru another round of advertisements or another bout with the job search consultant. By that time the job requirements have changed slightly, so another job spec has to be generated and processed. Oh, and now there is a hiring freeze. And the boss reorganized something and everything has to be started over once again, once the freeze has thawed. Etc. Etc. Etc.


    It's a nightmare for all concerned.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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