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Thread: Some Jobs Encouragement

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    Default Some Jobs Encouragement

    U.S. Jobs Up 151,000; Unemployment 9.6 Percent

    by Scott Neuman, NPR
    November 5, 2010

    Employers boosted jobs at a faster pace in October than at any time in nearly half a year, but the unemployment rate remained stubbornly at 9.6 percent — further evidence of what the Federal Reserve has termed a "disappointingly slow" recovery.
    The economy added a larger-than-expected 151,000 jobs last month, but the unemployment rate remained at 9.6 percent, the Labor Department said Friday
    Employers added a net 151,000 jobs last month, the most since May. Wall Street analysts had expected a gain of only about 60,000 jobs.
    Austan Goolsbee, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said that with job growth "twice as good as expected," the report was encouraging.
    "When the president took office we were seeing catastrophic job losses of 700,000, 800,000 per month," he told NPR Friday. Since then, "we've just been moving our way up out of that," he said....
    Nigel Gault, economist with IHS Global Insight, said the numbers "are encouraging at first blush and even on closer examination, they still look good."
    "I think the important thing is that the numbers are telling us we're continuing to grow, that the recovery is still in place and we're not at risk of falling back into that dreaded double-dip.

    --------------------
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    Default Re: Some Jobs Encouragement

    in terms of multiple viewpoints ...


    (snip)Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To 25 Year Low, At 64.5%

    The inverse silver lining to today's jobs report that will be lost in the shuffle of what is perceived as a good NFP (despite consistent initial jobless claims of around 450K, which means that either there is a massive data error, or the rate of job creation has somehow surged) is that labor force participation has now dropped to the lowest rate it has been since 1984, at 64.5%. Assuming a reversion to the long-term average participation rate of 66%, means that the civilian labor force is in reality 157.4 million as opposed to the disclosed 153.9 million, a delta of 3.5 million currently unaccounted for. Maybe someone can ask the president during his imminent press conference what happened to the unemployed population, which would have been 18.3 if this labor force delta was incorporated, resulting in an unemployment rate of 11.6%.(snip) from


    and from David Rosenberg

    (snip)NICE TREAT IN U.S. PAYROLLS, BUT THERE WAS A TRICK IN THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY

    Well, that was quite the shocker. Nonfarm payrolls managed to dramatically exceed expectations and rung up a total of 151,000 jobs in October — more than double consensus estimates. And, the prior two months were revised higher by a total of 110,000. The workweek edged back up to 34.3 hours from 34.2 hours in September and along with the moderate increase in wages, average weekly earnings, a proxy for work-based personal income, jumped 0.5% MoM. This more than recouped the 0.2% decline the month before and was a welcome relief for a household sector that will be confronting sharply rising gas prices and grocery bills ahead.

    The headline was undoubtedly strong, as were some of the details, but we want to warn readers that this was not a universally solid report. First, within the nonfarm report itself, virtually all the gains were in three sectors — health/education, retail trade and waste/administrative services. Goods-producing employment barely rose. The diffusion index for private payrolls dipped in October, to 55.0 from 55.6, which is a four-month low, and for manufacturing, the diffusion index fell to 42.1 from 54.3, which is the lowest since December 2009. So while there was depth to the report, in terms of magnitude, there was not a whole lot of breadth to it. Many sectors still reported job declines last month, including manufacturing, commercial and residential construction, transportation, information, financial and government. As I said, not a universally strong report, notwithstanding the solid headline results.

    Moreover, the Household Survey showed a 330,000 decline in October, and again, full-time jobs declined, as they have for each of the past five months for a cumulative plunge of 1.1 million. The employment-to-population rate — the share of the population that is working — fell to 58.3% from 58.5%, a 10-month low. Many labour market experts actually consider this to be the most accurate barometer of the health in the labour market (though they are clearly not day traders, judging from the immediate reaction in the bond and stock pits). And many of the other measures of the unemployment rate edged up, with the broad U6 index staying stubbornly high at 17%. It will be very difficult to build any sustained wage pressure with this degree of slack overhanging the labour market. While the number of people working part-time for economic reasons slid 318,000, this has to be viewed in the context of the near-one million bulge in the prior two months. Meanwhile, those folks who have been unemployed and looking for work fruitlessly for at least six months jumped 1.54%, or 83k, last month — the first increase since last May — and the median and mean duration of unemployment both rose as well (to 21.2 weeks from 20.4; and to 33.9 weeks from 33.3, respectively).

    Bottom line: Nice headline on U.S. employment, and the income figure too. But the Household survey did not offer ratification and the problem of excess labour supply has clearly not gone away. We finished off October with a level of jobless claims (455k) that is consistent with stagnant job growth, so do not be surprised to see some giveback in payrolls when the November data roll around next month (snip)

    from



    Agreed that there are some positives in this report. However, if one looks 'under the hood', it's nowhere near as positive in real terms as NPR's headline and Obama cheerleader Goolsbee quotations imply. As Tyler Durden points out, the official statistics seem to have 'misplaced' 3.5 million members of the US labor force (who presumably don't have jobs) to arrive at an official statistic of 9.6%. As David Rosenberg points out, the official reported job gains were mostly confined to a few sectors (none of them goods producing and some of them funded by taxpayer dollars), the 'household survey' of unemployment does not corroborate the official report, and various other related indicators are negative.

    So if you choose to believe that NPR's report is presenting an accurate and optimistic picture of the US economy, I certainly won't stop you. However, if someone is making business decisions or investment decisions based on the content of this latest report, they might consider the possibility that the official gov't unemployment statistics released so soon after a very 'negative' election may indeed have been 'massaged' in order to deflect some of that negativity away from the administration. Also, please note that it was the OP who included a reference to the Obama administration's supposedly positive effect on the US economy ... to which I am merely responding.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 11-05-2010 at 10:06 PM.

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    Default Re: Some Jobs Encouragement

    Job growth remains a huge problem, just not a huge as it once was or still could have been. Still there are some brightening spots, even in investing. But even in the best of times, there is a considerable amount of bad news, if one looks around enough.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: Some Jobs Encouragement

    Indeed, unemployment may increase as people gain hope and re-enter the work force. December numbers should be interesting.

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