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Thread: weekend commentary - future oil prices versus 'green energy'

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - future oil prices versus 'green energy'

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Since this forum is ultimately supposed to be at least 51% economically related, all I will say is that Obama and the principles of Google, Apple, Microsoft etc. seem to have an extraordinarily 'personal' relationship. And as a fellow ex-pat, indeed it amazes me that the zeal with which Obama drove the IRS and US state dep't to close down offshore tax loopholes for US INDIVIDUALS, the same zeal that Obama initially brought to bear to begin closing down offshore tax loopholes for US corporation hedge funds etc. suddenly evaporated when it came to addressing the offshore US corporation tax loopholes being employed by the above Silicon Valley corporations !!!
    Everything you just listed is pure speculation. Absent actual facts or evidence I will stick with my theory that if there is a delay or cancellation in restricting overseas corporate tax loopholes, that either they are researching legal issues regarding implementing changes or it's the very familiar Republican obstruction of anything that is harmful to big business and special interests. If some evidence is provided however, I would be willing to adjust my thinking on that.

    And yes we have gotten bogged down in discussions of 'green energy's actual economic 'value' and actual economic 'costs' ... which at the very least are murky and involve significant subsidies by US taxpayers in one form of another.
    I was referring more to your purely speculative claims regarding the overseas tax loopholes. They have been around a very long time, and Silicon Valley companies like Google, Microsoft etc. will likely have an extremely minimal influence on policy regarding them in comparison to the far "murkier" companies like Haliburton and the like. In addition, if we were to add up all the subsidies etc. that oil has gotten over the years I'm pretty sure the amount given to green energy would be very, very small in comparison.

    What are the "actual economic 'value' and actual economic 'costs'" of; oil spills, military expenditures, and terrorism issues as a result of our dependence on oil. When was the last time anyone had a solar energy disaster and how many of those are we likely to have in the future?. What is the "actual economic 'value' and actual economic 'costs'" of sending $trillions of dollars overseas to governments who most certainly don't have our best interests at heart?.

    However, in terms of the 'bigger picture', even if worldwide efforts toward 'green energy' continue at the planned pace, it is still a certainty that Chinese / Indian / 3rd world economic growth is going to increase worldwide demand for oil at a faster rate than 'green energy' implementation is going to reduce demand for oil over the next 10 years at least. This in turn guarantees that, as a worldwide commodity, prices for oil / gasoline / diesel will continue to rise in every country regardless of that country's 'green energy' implementation rate. And future oil prices are obviously the 'second half' of the thread's central premise.
    Once again, this is PURE speculation on your part and even if there was NO green energy involved in the equation, your "guarantee" that prices will rise is only a possibility. There are also possibilities over 10 years that China and or India's economies may crash and lessen demand severely, there are possibilities (in fact very high probabilities) that large new oil sources will be discovered and exploited (like currently in Brazil) and supply will increase exponentionally, there are possibilities that new technology will make the oil easier to extract and transport as well as significantly increase the output we get per gallon- all of these factors would effect it's price's upward climb. I'm not saying your wrong, all I'm saying is that it's impossible to guess correctly never mind guarantee.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - future oil prices versus 'green energy'

    anything is possible re the future of oil prices, but unlike the sudden discontinuance of US gov't shutdowns of offshore tax shelters for US corporations, there are plenty of authoritative sources to support future oil price projections ...



    (snip)"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Worldwide demand for oil is projected to climb 47% between 2003 and 2030, largely driven by economic expansion and continued demand for the fuel in developing countries like China and India, according to an international energy outlook released Tuesday by the U.S. Energy Department.

    Oil will remain the dominant energy source in the world over the next two decades, but higher crude oil prices will trim oil's share of the world energy market in the coming years, the report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said.

    Total global use is expected to increase 71%, the report said"(snip)



    (snip)"The International Energy Agency more than doubled its forecast for global oil demand over the next five years on Wednesday, citing stronger than expected growth in emerging economies like China and India.

    The IEA expects oil demand to grow 1.4 percent annually through 2015, up from the 0.6 percent annual growth forecast set last year. The agency also projects oil consumption to reach 94 million barrels a day, contingent on the global economy maintaining a steady 4.5 percent growth rate.

    The oil markets in China, India, and the Middle East are likely to see the largest jump in demand as they lead the world out of the recession with strong economic performances. Meanwhile, some European nations are likely to see their oil demand slow significantly in the next few years as they deal with sovereign debt issues.

    “Oil and gas markets are starting to show signs of recovery, but the impact of the recession differs across regions, and the outlook remains very uncertain,” said IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka in a statement.

    The IEA also stated that global oil demand should return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year."(snip)

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - future oil prices versus 'green energy'

    ^^^^ "is projected", " doubled it's forecast", "expects oil demand to grow", "are likely to see the largest jump in demand", "stated that global oil demand should return". These are nothing but forecasts and they all fail to take into account any of the hundreds of unknown factors and events that are likely to take place.

    Here are some past forecasts by industry experts:

    "The price of crude oil could soar to $200 a barrel in as little as six months, as supply..." - May,2008
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7387203.stm

    http://moneymorning.com/2008/10/17/gold-prices-2/ "Oil is headed for $150", "...has a multi-year target price of $225 a barrel for oil prices."- Oct, 2008

    Here is a chart that illustrates what actually happened several months after these forecasts were made:
    http://edmontonhousingbust.com/files/090331-2.jpg

    These projections were made only 2 years ago and were proved incorrect in just a few months, predictions for 10 years are exponentionally more likely to be flawed.

    As an example, I was involved in real estate in Panama during the boom years. Prices where going through the roof for a couple of years, almost every report and projection from almost every "expert" predicted that they would continue rising unabated for at least 7 years and they gave dozens of legitimate reasons why this would be the case. Then, unexpectedly, there was a worldwide financial crisis. Now, not almost all but ALL the "experts" predicted a tremendous crash in the real estate market there and they gave great reasons (as you have with oil), there was a tremendous amount of overbuilding (by 30,000 units), Banks had tightened up and people couldn't get mortgages, U.S. residents who were expected to buy couldn't sell their houses in the U.S. to move to Panama, people's home equity lines of credit that they were planning on using to pay the final payment of their pre-construction apartment off with were reduced by up to 90% and made that impossible. There were dozens of legitimate reasons give as to why a huge crash was iminent.

    What they didn't factor in however (and couldn't have) was that Hugo Chavez would try to change the constitution so he could run for president forever and also alter laws regarding assets and ownership etc. and that tens of thousands of wealthy and upper-middle class Venezuelans would come to Panama and sometimes buy a half dozen apartments at a time for their extended families. As a result, there was no crash at all and while prices pretty much ceased to climb, they have not gone down. Once again, all of this is within the span of a few years and the "experts" were dramatically wrong two out of two times.

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