Results 1 to 11 of 11

Thread: Going the way of Japan ?

  1. #1
    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2006
    Location
    NYC
    Posts
    5,150
    Thanks
    1,261
    Thanked 1,430 Times in 888 Posts

    Default Going the way of Japan ?

    Remember when Japan was our economic enemy ? How we used to bitch about their export based economy and their currency manipulations ? How we were encouraged by Paul Krugman et.al. to abandon free market capitalism in favor of a Japanese style "directed economy" ? We were supposed to try and be another "Japan Inc".

    How times have changed. Yesterday S & P downgraded Japanese debt.
    Japan is now in its SECOND " Lost Decade" highlighted by excessive spending and excessive debt. And Japan is TERMINAL ! They will NEVER recover. That's right. Their PERMANENT decline is inevitable.

    By 2050, 3/4 of the Japanese will be retired. Decades of a low birthrate and almost no immigration will leave 1 worker to support THREE ( 3) retirees.

    25 years ago, SONY was the Number One electronics company in the world. Today it has 20 % of Apple's market capitalization. Why ? Failure to innovate. What was SONY's last ground breaking or innovative product ?

    Japan has the highest corporate tax rates in the world. We are Number "2".
    Their people are generally pessimistic about the future. They don't have kids like we do. Their land laws have inflated housing prices for decades.
    They've had two decades of high spending, high taxes and lots of borrowing and they have NOTHING to show for it.

    Things to keep in mind when higher taxes are proposed. Or when Obama proposes more "Investment" . When our publicly traded debt is up 87% in just the last four years.

  2. #2
    God/dess
    Joined
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    7,964
    Thanks
    6,155
    Thanked 10,183 Times in 4,602 Posts

    Default Re: Going the way of Japan ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    They've had two decades of high spending, high taxes and lots of borrowing and they have NOTHING to show for it.
    except for an unemployment rate below 5% and the number one auto manufacturer in the world.

  3. #3
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: Going the way of Japan ?

    Japan's supposed 5% unemployment rate has much in common with America's supposed 9% unemployment rate ...

    (snip)"TOKYO — Kenichi Horie was a promising auto engineer, exactly the sort of youthful talent Japan needs to maintain its edge over hungry Korean and Chinese rivals. As a worker in his early 30s at a major carmaker, Mr. Horie won praise for his design work on advanced biofuel systems.

    But like many young Japanese, he was a so-called irregular worker, kept on a temporary staff contract with little of the job security and half the salary of the “regular” employees, most of them workers in their late 40s or older. After more than a decade of trying to gain regular status, Mr. Horie finally quit — not just the temporary jobs, but Japan altogether.

    He moved to Taiwan two years ago to study Chinese.

    “Japanese companies are wasting the young generations to protect older workers,” said Mr. Horie, now 36. “In Japan, they closed the doors on me. In Taiwan, they tell me I have a perfect résumé.”

    As this fading economic superpower rapidly grays, it desperately needs to increase productivity and unleash the entrepreneurial energies of its shrinking number of younger people. But Japan seems to be doing just the opposite. This has contributed to weak growth and mounting pension obligations, major reasons Standard & Poor’s downgraded Japan’s sovereign debt rating on Thursday.

    “There is a feeling among young generations that no matter how hard we try, we can’t get ahead,” said Shigeyuki Jo, 36, co-author of “The Truth of Generational Inequalities.” “Every avenue seems to be blocked, like we’re butting our heads against a wall.”

    An aging population is clogging the nation’s economy with the vested interests of older generations, young people and social experts warn, making an already hierarchical society even more rigid and conservative. The result is that Japan is holding back and marginalizing its youth at a time when it actually needs them to help create the new products, companies and industries that a mature economy requires to grow."(snip)

    from


    with the consequence being ...

    (snip)"BLOOMBERG - More than half of young Japanese workers need to rely on support from their parents or other sources to survive, according to a government report.

    Fifty-six percent of workers aged between 15 and 34 need to supplement their salaries to cover living expenses, the Labor Ministry said in a report yesterday.

    The figure underscores how Japan’s young workers have been among the hardest hit by falling wages and two decades of sluggish economic growth. The unemployment rate for youths aged 15 to 24 soared to 11.1 percent in June, the highest in at least 40 years and double the national average.

    “Many of Japan’s youth have become part of a lost generation that can’t find full-time work or get paid the amount they deserve,” said Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai- Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. “This means more workers are missing out on the chance to gain the skills they need.”

    About 94 percent of young workers earn less than 350,000 yen ($4,153) a month, the report said."(snip)


    ... as is now the case for an increasing number of younger Americans as well as younger Japanese, diminishing access to reasonably well paying jobs with reasonable future job security is causing ...

    - young people to remain living with their parents for years or even decades because their available earnings potential cannot support independent living / starting a family at an acceptable 'standard of living'.

    - older people to subsidize the day to day living costs of younger people ( albeit in Japan this is usually voluntary re family members whereas in America it is mandated via taxes and social welfare benefits / low income tax credits )

    - truly talented and productive young people to seek real future opportunities in different countries

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 01-29-2011 at 03:33 AM.

  4. #4
    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2006
    Location
    NYC
    Posts
    5,150
    Thanks
    1,261
    Thanked 1,430 Times in 888 Posts

    Default Re: Going the way of Japan ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Japan's supposed 5% unemployment rate has much in common with America's supposed 9% unemployment rate ...

    (snip)"TOKYO — Kenichi Horie was a promising auto engineer, exactly the sort of youthful talent Japan needs to maintain its edge over hungry Korean and Chinese rivals. As a worker in his early 30s at a major carmaker, Mr. Horie won praise for his design work on advanced biofuel systems.

    But like many young Japanese, he was a so-called irregular worker, kept on a temporary staff contract with little of the job security and half the salary of the “regular” employees, most of them workers in their late 40s or older. After more than a decade of trying to gain regular status, Mr. Horie finally quit — not just the temporary jobs, but Japan altogether.

    He moved to Taiwan two years ago to study Chinese.

    “Japanese companies are wasting the young generations to protect older workers,” said Mr. Horie, now 36. “In Japan, they closed the doors on me. In Taiwan, they tell me I have a perfect résumé.”

    As this fading economic superpower rapidly grays, it desperately needs to increase productivity and unleash the entrepreneurial energies of its shrinking number of younger people. But Japan seems to be doing just the opposite. This has contributed to weak growth and mounting pension obligations, major reasons Standard & Poor’s downgraded Japan’s sovereign debt rating on Thursday.

    “There is a feeling among young generations that no matter how hard we try, we can’t get ahead,” said Shigeyuki Jo, 36, co-author of “The Truth of Generational Inequalities.” “Every avenue seems to be blocked, like we’re butting our heads against a wall.”

    An aging population is clogging the nation’s economy with the vested interests of older generations, young people and social experts warn, making an already hierarchical society even more rigid and conservative. The result is that Japan is holding back and marginalizing its youth at a time when it actually needs them to help create the new products, companies and industries that a mature economy requires to grow."(snip)

    from http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/wo...eneration.html


    with the consequence being ...

    (snip)"BLOOMBERG - More than half of young Japanese workers need to rely on support from their parents or other sources to survive, according to a government report.

    Fifty-six percent of workers aged between 15 and 34 need to supplement their salaries to cover living expenses, the Labor Ministry said in a report yesterday.

    The figure underscores how Japan’s young workers have been among the hardest hit by falling wages and two decades of sluggish economic growth. The unemployment rate for youths aged 15 to 24 soared to 11.1 percent in June, the highest in at least 40 years and double the national average.

    “Many of Japan’s youth have become part of a lost generation that can’t find full-time work or get paid the amount they deserve,” said Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai- Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. “This means more workers are missing out on the chance to gain the skills they need.”

    About 94 percent of young workers earn less than 350,000 yen ($4,153) a month, the report said."(snip)


    ... as is now the case for an increasing number of younger Americans as well as younger Japanese, diminishing access to reasonably well paying jobs with reasonable future job security is causing ...

    - young people to remain living with their parents for years or even decades because their available earnings potential cannot support independent living / starting a family at an acceptable 'standard of living'.

    - older people to subsidize the day to day living costs of younger people ( albeit in Japan this is usually voluntary re family members whereas in America it is mandated via taxes and social welfare benefits / low income tax credits )

    - truly talented and productive young people to seek real future opportunities in different countries

    ~
    Aw Mel ! Once again you stole my thunder ! Lol. I was just gonna cite to that FRONT PAGE Article in y-day's N.Y. Times.

    Add in such facts as Japan has had a grand total of 19 IPO's last year. What does that tell us ? NO START - UPS ! Japan is wedded to the OLD way of doing things i.e. old established companies ; older workers; retirees. Even their savings rate is arguably counter productive and has helped cause their DEFLATION. They are NOT buying. What can they buy ? Houses cost a fortune. Imports are expensive.

    I threw it out there as a cautionary tale for us. Japan is a very old, homogenous and tradition bound society where substantive change is VERY difficult. Their last period of real change was after W.W. II, when MacArthur demilitarized their society and gave women the vote among many other reforms. He was able to do it as a DICTATOR ! The Japanese Diet would NEVER have gone along with most of his reforms.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 01-31-2011 at 12:02 PM.

  5. #5
    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2006
    Location
    NYC
    Posts
    5,150
    Thanks
    1,261
    Thanked 1,430 Times in 888 Posts

    Default Re: Going the way of Japan ?

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    except for an unemployment rate below 5% and the number one auto manufacturer in the world.
    As Mel pointed out, their unemployment rate is illusory. Their growth rate stinks. Their demographics are terrifying and cars are one of the few things they have left. SONY, Toshiba and even Honda are NOT what they once were. Just to name a few.

  6. #6
    God/dess hockeybobby's Avatar
    Joined
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    4,969
    Thanks
    1,811
    Thanked 597 Times in 382 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1

    Default Re: Going the way of Japan ?

    By most measures, Japan is one of the richest nations on the planet.

  7. #7
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: Going the way of Japan ?

    ^^^ unfortunately for future Japanese, those 'most measures' primarily involve incredibly inflated property valuations, a favorable yen exchange rate versus the hundreds of billions of dollars worth of trade surplus financed US Treasury and other investments owned by the Japanese gov't and rich Japanese investors, the non-recognition of trillions of dollars worth of toilet paper debt held by Japanese banks, etc. As noted above, where younger Japanese are concerned, very little of this supposed wealth is in their hands !

  8. #8
    God/dess hockeybobby's Avatar
    Joined
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    4,969
    Thanks
    1,811
    Thanked 597 Times in 382 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1

    Default Re: Going the way of Japan ?

    Living at home with Mom & Dad isn't such a bad thing. And, if all the wealth is in the hands of the older Japanese people, they'll be passing it on to their younger heirs eventually...they can't take it with them. House prices go up and down, and economies ebb and flow.

    Of all the countries in the world, which ones would be better for young Japanese people to move to? They are already living in one of the wealthiest, most advanced nations on the planet....certainly in the top ten.

  9. The Following User Says Thank You to hockeybobby For This Useful Post:


  10. #9
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: Going the way of Japan ?

    Living with mom and dad and needing parental help paying one's bills when one is a 'professional' in their mid-30's is arguably a BAD situation if one is the least interested in being independent, starting their own family etc. Finally inheriting the 'deed' to a Japanese house when parents die at age 80, when the 'young person' has reached age 55, isn't a sustainable option for the creation of new Japanese families. And that inheritance, of course, assumes that the parents will not wind up liquidating assets to fund their own retirement / medical care needs !

    As to alternatives for Japanese 'professional' ex-pats, the Times article mentioned both South Korea and Taiwan as readily available options.

    In regard to the repeated references to 'wealth' ... arguably the level of total national wealth means far less in this context than the amount of wealth that is available to young Japanese. Like America, Japan's wealth has also become extremely concentrated into the hands of a very small percentage of the population.

  11. #10
    God/dess
    Joined
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    7,964
    Thanks
    6,155
    Thanked 10,183 Times in 4,602 Posts

    Default Re: Going the way of Japan ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Aw Mel ! Once again you stole my thunder ! Lol. I was just gonna cite to that FRONT PAGE Article in y-day's N.Y. Times.

    Add in such facts as Japan has had a grand total of 19 IPO's last year. What does that tell us ? NO START - UPS ! Japan is wedded to the OLD way of doing things i.e. old established companies ; older workers; retirees. Even their savings rate is arguably counter productive and has helped cause their DEFLATION. They are NOT buying. What can they buy ? Houses cost a fortune. Imports are expensive.
    From what I remember in the article (I can't access it now), the US had 66 IPO's last year. The US has over twice the population, so Japan had about 2/3 as many IPO's as the US, per-capita.

  12. #11
    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2006
    Location
    NYC
    Posts
    5,150
    Thanks
    1,261
    Thanked 1,430 Times in 888 Posts

    Default Re: Going the way of Japan ?

    Duh ! What does one need to do an IPO ? Financing and Underwriting. Both have been severely constriucted in the U.S. since 2008. how many start-ups would you seriously expect to see in a recession wracked economy ? BUT if you look at total IPO's in the U.S. since 1990 ( When Japan, Inc. peaked ) there have been THOUSANDS ! In Japan ? Just a few hundred. Even allowing for the population difference, the U.S. has been far more innovative and has generated far more new companies and businesses than Japan. So too for China, India and Brazil. I don't know about Russia but the other 3 BRIC countries have had far more IPO's and start ups than Japan.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 02-02-2011 at 12:22 PM.

Similar Threads

  1. japan?
    By Surprise in forum Club Chat
    Replies: 18
    Last Post: 04-12-2010, 01:53 PM
  2. japan
    By babypink29 in forum Club Chat
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 11-06-2009, 03:14 PM
  3. hi ho..hi ho...its off to japan i go..again
    By mermaidnz in forum Club Chat
    Replies: 22
    Last Post: 04-01-2008, 12:46 PM
  4. Japan?
    By gothicgoddess in forum Club Chat
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 01-02-2005, 03:03 PM
  5. Japan!!!
    By alex in forum Club Chat
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 11-01-2004, 05:33 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •