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Thread: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

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    Default weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    from



    (snip)"U.S. consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest point in more than three decades in early August, as fears of a stalled recovery gelled with despair over government policies, a survey released Friday showed.

    The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary August reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 54.9, the lowest since May 1980, down from 63.7 in July. It was well below the median forecast of 63.0 among economists polled by Reuters.

    High unemployment, stagnant wages and the protracted debate over raising the U.S. government debt ceiling spooked consumers, polled before the downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt by Standard & Poor's a week ago.

    "Never before in the history of the surveys have so many consumers spontaneously mentioned negative aspects of the government's role," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.

    In the stock market the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq turned negative following the report, while the price of U.S. Treasury securities rose. Data earlier on Friday showed strengthening retail sales in July.

    "The confidence was guaranteed to go down given all the upsets in the market," said Kurt Karl, Chief U.S. Economist at Swiss RE in New York. "Hopefully this won't be the precursor of consumers' action in August."

    The survey's gauge of consumer expectations slipped to 45.7, also the lowest since May of 1980, from July's 56.0, well below a predicted reading of 55.3.

    The Obama administration received poor ratings from 61 percent of respondents, the worst showing among all prior heads of state.

    "This was more than the simple recognition that traditional monetary and fiscal policy measures were largely spent; it was the realization that the government was unable or unwilling to act," Curtin added.

    Two-thirds of all consumers reported that the economy had recently worsened, and just one-in-five anticipated any gains during the year ahead.

    Three quarters of respondents expected bad economic times, just below the all-time peak of 82 percent in 1980.

    Consumer buying plans fell back to their recession lows, and 46 percent of respondents said they expected unemployment to rise.

    The survey's barometer of current economic conditions was 69.3 in August, down from 75.8 in July and below a forecast of 74.3.

    The one-year inflation expectation remained stuck at 3.4 percent, while the five-to-10-year inflation outlook also flatlined at 2.9 percent in August."(snip)

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    You've got to be kidding me!, this is an all-time low, even for Dollar Den of Gloom and Doom. You take one negative headline from a day with 3 of 4 positive ones and then put a photo-shop pic up to support you political ideology?. I'm sorry but that's totally ridiculous.

    Why don't you leave the photo-shopping to the hacks at National Enquirer. Why don't you also post any of the following:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Shoppe...3&asset=&ccode= Shoppers lift economy but will they keep spending?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Consum...4&asset=&ccode= Consumers splurge in July, pushing retail sales up

    Can we please have a seperate section added to the forums for politcal ideology and commentary?

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    I'm sorry but that's totally ridiculous.
    It appears to have achieved the intended purpose, driving home the point that the last time US consumer sentiment was this low was during the Jimmy Carter years !!! This is a sad testament to the actual economic state of 'Main Street' ... and bad news for exotic dancers who work in clubs on 'Main Street'.


    As to the US Retail Sales report ... on the surface it kind of looks like an improvement ... from

    (snip)"Retail sales strengthened in July, led by a spurt in auto sales but with support from most other components. Overall retail sales in July jumped 0.5 percent, following a 0.3 percent rise the month before (originally up 0.1 percent). The July boost was just below the consensus forecast for a 0.6 percent gain. Auto sales continued to rebound, rising 0.4 percent, following a 0.7 percent jump in June.

    Excluding autos, sales were healthy, posting a 0.5 percent increase, following a 0.2 percent rise in June (originally flat). Analysts had estimated a 0.3 percent increase. Gasoline sales actually rose during the latest month, supporting ex autos. Gasoline station sales rebounded 1.6 percent after dropping 1.7 percent. Sales excluding autos and gasoline in July advanced 0.3 percent, following a 0.5 percent rise in June.

    Outside of autos and gasoline, sales were mostly positive. Leaders were miscellaneous store retailers, up 2.4 percent; electronics & appliance stores, up 1.4 percent; and nonstore retailers, up 0.9 percent. Also seeing increases were furniture & home furnishing, food & beverage, health & personal care, and clothing & accessories.

    Leading the downside were sporting goods, hobby & book stores, down 1.5 percent, and building materials & garden equipment, down 0.4 percent. Food services & drinking places eased 0.1 percent while general merchandise sales were flat.

    Retail sales on a year-ago basis in July improved to 8.5 percent from 8.3 percent in June. Excluding motor vehicles, sales were up 8.6 percent on a year-on-year basis, compared to 8.2 percent the prior month.

    Overall, the consumer is still spending, although the pace is hardly gangbusters. Despite difficulties in the financial markets, the consumer has not withdrawn to the sidelines."(snip)


    The caveat behind 'looks like' an improvement is of course the fact that retail sales are being measured in dollars spent not sales volume. Thus rising prices ( particularly for food and gasoline ) creating rising retail sales dollars may or may not be a positive economic contributor. Rising auto sales dollars is also a function of increased availability of 'subprime' auto credit which also may or may not be a positive economic contributor ( particularly so if US taxpayers wind up eating increased losses on newly written 'subprime' GM / Ally Bank TARP financed auto loans ) ... and also reflect record sales volumes by Porsche / Maserati / BMW etc. to the top 5% market. But ex gasoline and ex auto sales, the overall number was only at 0.3%. There is also an element of 'margin compression' as retailers were forced to lower prices / margins on products such as electronics and home furninshings in an effort to liquidate high inventories, which may or may not be a positive economic contributor.

    All in all, the retail sales report was better than a kick in the teeth. But the statistical boost to the current retail sales report provided by high gasoline prices has already been 'erased' at the pump, and will similarly be 'erased' in next month's retails sales report.


    Why don't you also post any of the following
    Because, unlike the Consumer Confidence story from CNBC that I posted, the headlines you linked to i.e. 'Consumers Splurge in July' are misleading versus actual facts ( and arguably are politically slanted but in a different direction). Buying the same number of gallons of gasoline or the same number of pounds of coffee at higher prices in July versus June wouldn't be considered to be 'Splurging' by most Main St. residents !


    Can we please have a seperate section added to the forums for politcal ideology and commentary
    This is a fair question. It has been the long-standing policy of Dollar Den that every thread must have at least a 50% economic / financial content. This is a concession to the cold hard fact that economic / financial issues are increasingly a function of gov't policy !!! Thus, under current economic circumstances at least, 'banning' all economic discussions that involve gov't policy from the main Dollar Den would leave very little room for meaningful discussion !!!

    Trying to wring out every bit of ideology from the following statements ... virtually every investment decision considered today is contingent on gov't policy ( specifically, US dollar / QE policy ) rather than economic fundamentals. Virtually every business planning decision considered today is contingent on gov't policy ( specifically, taxation / regulatory compliance cost policy ) rather than domestic supply and demand. As stated in the CNBC blurb, gov't policy is a major ingredient in consumer confidence - and arguably directly translates into strip club customer spending trends. If, as you suggest, it were to become impossible to discuss investments, business plans, strip club customer spending trends etc. in Dollar Den, because they are all affected by gov't policy, what's left ... bargains at the local lingerie shop, buying CD's at a local credit union ? Oops, can't even talk about CD's because present versus future interest rates ( i.e. whether buying CD's at current interest rates is a good idea or not ) are directly tied to gov't policy !!!


    You take one negative headline from a day with 3 of 4 positive ones
    I must have missed something ...

    Today's Yahoo Finance Headlines -

    - Appeals Court Strikes Health Insurance Requirement ( arguably the most positive economic headline of the day !)
    - JC Penney reports flat 2Q profits ( better than declining profits I suppose )
    - Advertising Slowing Down with Economy Unncertain ( not exactly positive )
    - Where are the New Support Levels for the S&P 500 ( not positive either )
    - 10 Housing Markets that will Collapse This Year ( not a trace of positive )
    - Bizarre Places People Are Hiding Their Cash ( could be a positive, if you already have cash to hide ! )
    - Aftershock to Economy Has Precedent With Lessons ( link to a NY Times story discussing 'recession within depression' of 1938 !!! )
    - Bankruptcy Risk is Worry Again ( link to WSJ story that's definitely not positive )
    - Gold is Still Golden ( could be positive if you have already invested in Gold )
    - Next Stop DOW 8,200 - Futures Trader ( self-explanatory I would think ! )
    - and the most intriguing story of all 'Where the Rich Are Moving', a linked CNBC story which describes 17 different US towns / cities that are essentially being 'taken over' as communities exclusively for the 'rich'.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 08-13-2011 at 03:14 PM.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    ^^^^
    I call B.S. on your entire last post. First off, your original post- was NOT FACTS but the results of a single poll.

    You have an ideology on how things work or should work. A large portion of what you post is either spin, outright "made up" or a partial part of what's actually going on.

    You have obsessively posted thousands of negative posts for 8 or more years now explaining how not adhering to right-ideology was going to destroy the economy. Even if what you posted was correct (most of it is not) I have to say.....I THINK WE GET IT!!!!!. The country is going to be destroyed by not following your ideology- OK, great- can we move on?.

    You are entitled to post whatever you want, of course. All I am proposing is to have those posts in a section dedicated to politics. Dollar Den is supposed to mostly for "taxes, investing, fees......", yet about 85% of the posts are related to your political diatribes. I've read your explanation on how those posts are relevent to people's money and investing etc., but it's way too far of a stretch.

    I would not have a problem with the posts even being allowed to stay in Dollar Den if there were a way to block them. It kind of stinks that since you are moderator and refuse to moderate yourself that my only options are to either not go into Dollar Den or to go and be subjected to unrelenting right-wing propoganda, whatever!.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    As to the 'single poll' accusation, even ( arguably positively biased ) MSNBC is leading their business news page with 'Gloom Gets a Grip on Consumers, Execs' which is essentially a rehash of the Michigan consumer sentiment survey I originally posted, with a Marist survey overlaid - from .

    (snip)" A second national survey, the McClatchy-Marist poll, showed that 68 percent of Americans believe the worst of the country’s economic conditions are yet to come, while only 27 percent say the worst is behind us. The survey showed a sharp increase in pessimism. Just last month only 53 percent of those surveyed said the worst is yet to come.

    Both the Marist and University of Michigan polls were conducted BEFORE Standard & Poor’s downgraded U.S. government debt last week, triggering a tumultuous week on world financial markets. Despite the negative news about consumer sentiment, the market ended the week on a positive note, with the Dow Jones industrial average gaining more than 100 points — a fourth straight day of triple-digit moves. Still the Dow has lost more than 11 percent since starting its slide in late July.

    “People are upset with the process of government, and they are also upset with the difficulty they are having in making ends meet in their own lives,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Poll in Poughkeepsie, N.Y. In addition to the political stalemate in Washington and lingering unemployment rate above 9 percent, Miringoff mentioned two seemingly intractable wars weighing on the minds of Americans.

    “There is plenty to point to if you want to be grumpy,” he said.

    A quarterly global business survey done by British publications The Economist and Financial Times also showed a sharp decline in optimism, or increase in pessimism, if you must.

    Among more than 1,500 senior business executives surveyed in July, only 23 percent of respondents think business will improve in the next six months, while 34 percent say conditions will worsen. That is a business confidence index of minus 10.5. In the previous survey, conducted in April and May, the balance was the opposite, resulting in a confidence index of plus 19. "(snip)


    taxes, investing, fees
    So we're supposed to confine ourselves to tutorials in how to file taxes ( rather than question why our taxes are being raised ) ? We're supposed to invest in broad mutual funds or CD's ( rather than questioning whether stock markets are likely to decline and interest rates are likely to rise ? ).


    OK, great- can we move on?.
    Absolutely ! I encourage others to do more posting and start / join discussions. However, like yourself, I reserve the right to 'call bull$#!t' when the facts don't appear to jive with the assumptions / inferences.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    I must have missed something ...

    Today's Yahoo Finance Headlines -

    - Appeals Court Strikes Health Insurance Requirement ( arguably the most positive headline of the day !)
    - JC Penney reports flat 2Q profits ( better than declining profits I suppose )
    - Advertising Slowing Down with Economy Unncertain ( not exactly positive )
    - Where are the New Support Levels for the S&P 500 ( not positive either )
    - 10 Housing Markets that will Collapse This Year ( not a trace of positive )
    - Bizarre Places People Are Hiding Their Cash ( could be a positive, if you already have cash to hide ! )
    - Aftershock to Economy Has Precedent With Lessons ( link to a NY Times story discussing 'recession within depression' of 1938 !!! )
    - Bankruptcy Risk is Worry Again ( link to WSJ story that's definitely not positive )
    - Gold is Still Golden ( could be positive if you have already invested in Gold )
    - Next Stop DOW 8,200 - Futures Trader ( self-explanatory I would think ! )
    - and the most intriguing story of all 'Where the Rich Are Moving', a linked CNBC story which describes 17 different US towns / cities that are essentially being 'taken over' as communities exclusively for the 'rich'.

    ~
    Yes, you missed the two positive stories that were mentioned in my post- there were 4 or 5 other positive ones that day, including one how the lowered credit rating was turning out to have less of an impact than imagined.

    If you are going to appoint yourself as the official Stripperweb source for information on all things economic, your credibility would be aided by reporting with a little less bias- for example, along with your daily dose of gloom and doom scenarious and photo-shopping, you could have said "but there are a couple of bright points...." Then you could have mentioned the 2 positive stories in my previous post as well as this one: http://news.yahoo.com/jobless-claims...123428462.html -Jobs data strikes optimistic note for economy

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    how the lowered credit rating was turning out to have less of an impact than imagined
    I was actually considering independently posting about this 'unintended consequence' of America's lowered credit rating. Because many hedge funds / mutual funds / retirement funds etc. are constrained in regard to the amount of 'risk assets' they may hold, with America's Treasury Bonds becoming officially more 'risky', these funds are actually forced to sell off higher risk assets like stock shares and corporate bonds and redeploy the proceeds toward the purchase of yet more US Treasury Bonds. Whether this is a positive economic development or not is highly subjective !!!

    As to the jobs data ... there is so much 'skew' in the official gov't unemployment statistics that all realistic perspective has long since been lost ...



    ... granted that the relatively tiny uptick in the latest unemployment claims is touted by some as a 'bright spot', but in terms of the 'big picture' there are 5% ( = 15 million ) fewer Americans employed today than were employed prior to 2008 !!! Swings of 5,000 or even 10,000 fewer jobless claims per month would allow the US economy to restore historical employment levels in how long ? Well, NEVER ... because the US population / number of Americans reaching working age and entering the labor force is still growing faster than the unemployment claims are declining ! MarketWatch officially listed 117,000 jobs 'gained' in July ... but the US economy needs at least 150,000 new jobs per month just to keep pace with the population / labor force growth rate !
    Last edited by Melonie; 08-13-2011 at 07:36 AM.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    ^^^^^ You've got to be kidding me with this graph! This is just what I'm talking about by "skewing" information.

    Please make the percentage points on the left side of the graph go from 0-64% and resubmit.

    Another thing that all you Doom and Gloomers fail to realize or mention is that 10% unemployment means there is 90% employment. There are countries who have had functioning economies for decades with upwards of 30% unemployment.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    ^^^ sorry the BLS graph available is what it is. I'm sure that DD readers would recognize a 5% decline regardless of how far the left side of the graph extends. Essentially the point boils down to ... a slower rate of decline is relatively good news in the eyes of some ... but it is not the same as an actual increase !!!

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    ^^^^
    The point is that the graph with numbers ranging from only 58-64 makes a drop from 62.5 to 58.5 look HUGE- but on a graph from 0-64% it would look much like a flat line. "Skewering" at it's best.

    BTW, here are some more of those positive stories that you seem to have missed:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Positi....html?x=0&.v=1 Positive outlook boosts transportation shares

    http://www.dallasnews.com/incoming/2...omic-signs.ece Dow soars 423 points on economic news

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/bus...metals-higher/ as positive economic signals in the world's top-two consumers powered the rally

    http://www.forbes.com/2011/08/11/dai...newsvideo.html Markets Rally On Better Jobs Data

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    ^^^^^ You've got to be kidding me with this graph! This is just what I'm talking about by "skewing" information.

    Please make the percentage points on the left side of the graph go from 0-64% and resubmit.

    Another thing that all you Doom and Gloomers fail to realize or mention is that 10% unemployment means there is 90% employment. There are countries who have had functioning economies for decades with upwards of 30% unemployment.
    I agree with the thought that anyone can post postive or competing articles with the general thoughts that run here...... But remember the Doom & Gloomers have been the only ones who have been right for a while now...... As to unemployment..... It is just another govt maniplulated number..... Here is a good link to how the number get changed from time to time to help the pols, and fool the people.

    http://harpers.org/archive/2008/05/0082023

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    Quote Originally Posted by mikef View Post
    I agree with the thought that anyone can post postive or competing articles with the general thoughts that run here...... But remember the Doom & Gloomers have been the only ones who have been right for a while now...... As to unemployment..... It is just another govt maniplulated number..... Here is a good link to how the number get changed from time to time to help the pols, and fool the people.

    http://harpers.org/archive/2008/05/0082023
    It is far too complicated a subject to state that the G & D's have been right for a while now and besides this the larger question is whether the reasons the right-wing propogandists posts on here are valid or true and what part they play in the current state of affairs.

    The larger, larger question is if posts and discussion like this one should be taking up 85% of a forum section that is supposed to be dedicated to having adult entertainers discuss, taxes, investing and fees etc.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    a forum section that is supposed to be dedicated to having adult entertainers discuss, taxes, investing and fees etc.
    Tax filing questions always get straightforward non-political answers. Tax PLANNING questions of course can't be answered that simply since future tax rates, deductions etc. are the direct result of gov't policy.

    Basic how-to questions about investing ( i.e. how do I buy physical gold, how do I buy ETF's ) get straightforward non-political answers. Investment STRATEGY questions of course cant be answered that simply since future investment performance is highly dependent on gov't policy.


    As to the additional links you posted ... did you read them thoroughly ? Your 'Base Metals Higher' news link is very clear as to what caused the US dollar denominated price increase in Copper and Zinc ...

    (snip)"Copper bulls fed off a strengthening yuan after top metals consumer China moved to fix its mid-point to a record high of 6.3991 versus the dollar.

    "This suggests to me that Beijing is sufficiently relaxed about allowing the domestic economy to drive growth and being less dependent on the export sector," said David Thurtell, an analyst at Citi.

    "It shows they are confident that the Chinese economy has sufficient momentum.""(snip)

    ... in other words, After the FED announced its policy of keeping interest rates low and printing up ever more US dollars earlier last week, the Chinese gov't / central bank reacted by allowing the US dollar to drop versus the Chinese Yuan ( probably by cutting back on the number of US treasuries the Chinese central bank routinely buys to maintain the Yuan to Dollar exchange rate peg ). Copper and Zinc prices denominated in Chinese Yuan thus stayed the same ( since China is now the world's major buyer ), but copper and zinc prices increased in US dollar terms due to a decline in the US dollar's 'purchasing power'. China additionally stated that they are not counting on continuing export sales levels to foreign markets ( with China's largest export market being the USA ), which ties in well with both earlier surveys about declining US consumer confidence.

    And again, interpreting rising US dollar denominated copper and zinc prices as a positive or a negative is highly subjective ... depending a lot on whether you're a Wall St. investor trading commodity futures or a Main St resident that will soon be paying higher prices for appliances and automobiles due to the rising cost of the copper and zinc they contain ! And of course that doesn't address the 'unintended consequence' that every item imported from China that is sold from WalMart shelves will also become more expensive thanks to the decline in the US dollar vs Chinese Yuan exchange rate. Of course, the extra US dollars spent by American consumers to buy the same amount of Chinese imported goods at WalMart WILL show up as a supposed positive development in future retail sales reports !!!


    To illustrate my point that damn near EVERY financial matter has a major element of gov't policy involved these days, I'll field YOU a supposedly easy financial question that has been asked by many dancers over the years, Jimboe, and see how well you manage to avoid 'political' content in your response.

    Here's the question ... I have an extra $10,000 in recent dancing earnings just sitting in a bank account earning near zero interest. I don't have any immediate plans for that money but I might need it for the down payment on a house / new car / whatever two or three years from now. I'm not against assuming a little bit of loss risk in exchange for a higher rate of return, but I don't want to outright 'gamble' either. Where is the 'best' place to invest my $10,000 in the meantime ?

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 08-13-2011 at 01:48 PM.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    ^^^^
    You can of course spin and find whatever rationale you like for your ideology, as far as the base metals piece, I was referring to section:
    "Economic confidence, which has been savaged in recent days from a credit rating downgrade in the United States and concerns over a spreading debt crisis in Europe, was partly restored after an appreciation in the Chinese yuan and relatively positive US labour market data"

    Haha, Silly me, I always forget what a waste of time it is getting involved in any posting dialogue here. This forum has degenerated into your own personal propoganda blog. You simply ignore any accusations or comments that don't go along with your world view, not matter how much merit they have. You then cherry pick other points to argue about infinitum.

    I think there are so few actual tax, investing etc. posts made in Dollar Den because people have just written it off as a political posting board. It's a shame, a well moderated Dollar Den would probably contain a lot more relevent posts and help better inform a lot of people. A well moderated political section would also be interesting and would provide the proper are for political discourse and discussion. Doesn't look like either of those things will happen for a while, so I guess I'll just sit back and enjoy the free right-wing propoganda.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    It is far too complicated a subject to state that the G & D's have been right for a while now and besides this the larger question is whether the reasons the right-wing propogandists posts on here are valid or true and what part they play in the current state of affairs.

    The larger, larger question is if posts and discussion like this one should be taking up 85% of a forum section that is supposed to be dedicated to having adult entertainers discuss, taxes, investing and fees etc.

    I disagree. The G&D's have for the most part been right..... I'm new here and will defer to your understanding regarding what percentage should be political in this particular forum..... I would hope that anyone who wants to post will post and not worry about any right wing /'Gold foil hat' bias

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    Quote Originally Posted by mikef View Post
    I disagree. The G&D's have for the most part been right..... I'm new here and will defer to your understanding regarding what percentage should be political in this particular forum..... I would hope that anyone who wants to post will post and not worry about any right wing /'Gold foil hat' bias
    Then you are wrong. The G&D crowd is like a stopped clock, right twice a day. The problem is being right twice a day contributes no useful information as you need a working clock to know when the stopped one is right.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    Quote Originally Posted by Zofia View Post
    Then you are wrong. The G&D crowd is like a stopped clock, right twice a day. The problem is being right twice a day contributes no useful information as you need a working clock to know when the stopped one is right.
    The G&D crowd warned of the internet bubble.... the housing bubble.... and the debt bubble.... The conventional thinkers believed everything was contained..... They never see things as a pattern..... Always these things happen..... Not that they are the result of policies that cannot succeed in the long term.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    Quote Originally Posted by mikef View Post
    The G&D crowd warned of the internet bubble.... the housing bubble.... and the debt bubble.... The conventional thinkers believed everything was contained..... They never see things as a pattern..... Always these things happen..... Not that they are the result of policies that cannot succeed in the long term.
    No one has been saying things have been fine for a long time now, the conventional thinkers have long thought that things are horrible and need to be fixed. They are cautiously optimistic and going about their lives. If enough people think that the economy will improve, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Melonie has been speaking of catastrophy every day, 10 times a day for over 8 years now. In the past she has predicted food riots, complete collapse of the dollar, collapse of the society and many other things that have not come anywhere near coming to pass.

    Once again however, my entire point in all of this is that it is foolish to not to have a political section to put all this back and forth minutia. Either that or appoint a moderator who is less biased and doesn't post their propoganda on the board hundreds of times.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    No one has been saying things have been fine for a long time now, the conventional thinkers have long thought that things are horrible and need to be fixed. They are cautiously optimistic and going about their lives. If enough people think that the economy will improve, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Melonie has been speaking of catastrophy every day, 10 times a day for over 8 years now. In the past she has predicted food riots, complete collapse of the dollar, collapse of the society and many other things that have not come anywhere near coming to pass.

    Once again however, my entire point in all of this is that it is foolish to not to have a political section to put all this back and forth minutia. Either that or appoint a moderator who is less biased and doesn't post their propoganda on the board hundreds of times.
    No what I'm saying is it was the D&G crowd that was warning of the way things would turn out..... To now say anything different is disingenuous.... That's why they were called D&G's.

    I agree with you that a politics section would be a more proper place for these discussions.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    Quote Originally Posted by mikef View Post
    No what I'm saying is it was the D&G crowd that was warning of the way things would turn out..... To now say anything different is disingenuous.... That's why they were called D&G's.

    I agree with you that a politics section would be a more proper place for these discussions.
    Yes Mike, but D&G's are negative about everything all the time. It is also almost always not as bad as the D&G's say and never seems to stay bad as long as they say it will. If a weatherman predicts rain everyday- will he be considered a genius when he is correct 100% of the time when it does rain, or lableled as incompetent when he's incorrect about the 85% of the time when it doesn't rain?.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - US Consumer Confidence drops to 30 year low !

    ^^^ for the record, I don't consider myself to be a permanent Doom and Gloomer. However, when it comes down to true US economic fundamentals, IMHO there's really not much news to be optimistic about !!! But of course a lack of economic opportunity in the US also usually means that good economic opportunities are available elsewhere.

    Fairly well known full disclosure - I'm long the Swiss Franc, gold and some select foreign stock shares.

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