I am going to try extra hard to keep this apolitical but something does NOT add up. According to the latest numbers we added 120,000 net new jobs in November.Unemployment went down from 9 % to 8.6 %. BUT the number of people ( 315,000 ) who left the labor market went UP. And 120,000 is a lot lower than the 200,000 minimum jobs necessary just to keep pace with population growth. Some say we really need 250,000 new jobs per month.
One theory is that a LOT of people are seeing their 99 weeks of Unemployment benefits run out. Meaning they stop being counted and become sort of "non-persons". At least as far as the DOL statisticians are concerned. A related theory is that unemployment is counted using "base line" rather than "zero base " statistics.
The labor participation rate is DOWN to 64%. Long term unemployed are up 43%. Wages are only up 1.5% for 2011 meaning that REAL wages are down.
Lastly, these are Payroll Survey numbers AND pick up large payroll SEASONAL hiring ( large retail ; UPS; Federal Express etc. ). Let's see what the numbers are for January and February after all the Dept. Store Santas hang up their red suits and go back to the home.
I am very curious to see if the Household Survey ( which tracks small business and self-employment ) shows similar type "increases" in employment.



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