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Thread: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

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    Default 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/...d-emerges/3347

    "It’s that time of the year again: predictions time.
    In the media world, the more extreme, scary, and shocking you can make them, the more attention that can be generated with your predictions — hence, the better the predictions are.
    They have nothing to do with reality.
    In the days ahead, you will hear and read calls for outright booms, calamitous depressions, and everything in between. And quite conveniently, they’re all going to happen within the next calendar year."



    "The Good Side of the Bubble's Going Bust:
    Keeping the focus on consumers, there is some good news for them in real estate.
    While housing’s collapse has been at the center of the ongoing recession, there are many benefits from the drop in real estate prices. The biggest is freeing up more money to be spent elsewhere.
    The chart below shows mortgage payments now make up the smallest percentage (by far) of income they have in 25 years:
    This is a great thing for the economy as a whole."



    "It’s not just housing prices: Consumers could be getting even more of their income freed up in 2012 as another costly bubble show signs of deflating.
    Grocery bills could be headed for a sharp drop in 2012 as well.
    Last week we noted how a farm in Iowa recently sold for $20,000 an acre — more than 10 times the average price for Iowa farmland a decade ago.
    The extreme high for farmland is an indicator that the agriculture sector may have run up too far, too fast once again."


    "The best way to track real consumption activity is through rail traffic. It measures the number of rail cars and physical volume of stuff transported from producers to consumers. In other words, it’s a great indicator of the real economy and real wealth creation.
    The following chart, put together by the Pragmatic Capitalist, shows rail traffic continues to add to the previous recovery:"

    "Although the growth rates are nothing like the post-credit crisis rebound, they are still positive.
    That shows consumption of more stuff is still on the rise.
    Better yet, as more disposable income rises, rail traffic will increase even more
    ."



    "Don’t Bet Against the Trend
    Finally, there is one trend that has been alarmingly consistent over the past two centuries.
    It’s driven by basic human nature — that is, to get wealthier and improve one’s living conditions.
    The chart below shows U.S. GDP has consistently grown for nearly two centuries:"


    "Even the Great Depression was nothing more than a minor blip on the long-run growth, innovation, and productivity of a free people.
    This is one trend not to bet against next year — or over the long-run, either.
    When it comes to looking ahead in 2012, there’s a lot to look forward to...
    The bubbly boom times may be a long ways away but the near-term trends affecting disposable income are laying the foundation for an improved recovery and more growth.
    Any further corrections next year (because there will be corrections) should be seen as an opportunity rather than another cause for exiting the markets altogether."

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    I don't even know where to start in responding ...

    Yes it is true that mortgage payments now comprise a smaller share of after-tax income than in past years. However, your reference does not state that the reason for this is at least partially attributable to the fact that some 30% of US home mortgages are 'underwater', and that many of those 'underwater' homeowners have now ceased making additional mortgage payments altogether ! With the various legal obstacles now in place regarding delays in foreclosures, in some states it's now possible for a deadbeat homeowner to continue to occupy their home for up to 3 years without ever having to make a mortgage payment !!! Ultimately these 'losses' will fall on the underwriting banks as well as the US taxpayer via Fannie / Freddie bailout. But in the meantime it does allow those deadbeat homeowners to spend more money on consumer items while they're not paying rent or making mortgage payments !!!

    As to declining food prices, keep dreaming ! Many food processing and food distribution companies are reporting major declines in profit margins as they are unable to pass on wholesale food price increases that are already in the pipeline to retail customers. Ultimately these 'losses' will be absorbed by company stockholders, and in some cases businesses going bankrupt and jobs being lost. But it does mean that Big Mac prices won't be increasing. Even the US gov't agrees that food prices will continue to rise in 2012 ... see

    As to GDP, you might try differentiating between quasi-GDP generated by the gov't spending increasing amounts of borrowed money, from 'real' GDP generated by the private sector creating additional 'real' value. As the graph below makes painfully obvious, since 2009 about 1/2 of the 'official' GDP number can be directly traced to increasing levels of US gov't debt and increased levels of US gov't spending ... the vast majority of which does not 'produce' anything of 'real' value. Also, in terms of 'real' numbers, the 10 year averages shown in the graph below means that the long term US average annual GDP growth has been something on the order of 3%, mostly driven by the private sector. Since 2009 this private sector level has dropped to the 1% ballpark. Show me 3% annual private sector GDP growth levels again and I'll agree that things are 'improving'.



    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 01-02-2012 at 09:48 AM.

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    ^^^^Your predictions on food price increases are just that-predictions, as were your predictions of $200 oil, $2,000 gold and food riots a few years ago.

    There are way too many variables and unkowns to make accurately guessing possible in a consistent manner. Just like odds-makers in sports, very, very few people are consistently right. You have a gloom and doom mindset and seek out only prognosticators that agree with your assessment. That is not reality though, reality is that some good happens and some bad happens, over the course of time and up till present for the US anyways, a lot more good than bad actually happens.

    Here is another upbeat predictions:

    http://www.smartbrief.com/news/sales...0-1E728314A5CD

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    And here is another 'realistic' prediction courtesy of Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sucks

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    And here is another 'realistic' prediction courtesy of Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sucks

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldma...questions-2012
    I enjoyed reading the comments under that article:

    Mon, 01/02/2012 - 11:57 | 2026689Snakeeyes

    Yup. That chart is not correct.

    Mon, 01/02/2012 - 12:12 | 2026720Azannoth

    You honestly expected Truth from *cough*Goldman Sachs*cough* lol


    Mon, 01/02/2012 - 12:59 | 2026829knukles

    The only f**king thing gonna remain decoupled is Goldman's forecasts opposite reality."

    Cognitive Dissonance

    The only Goldman question that matters.

    "How much can we rape, rob and steal in 2012?"

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    ^^^ granted there is a wide array of posted commentary, ranging from the insightful to the absurd.

    Personally speaking, I tend to give at least some creedence to GS since they have so many 'alumni' at the FED and in the US Treasury / gov't that they are actually in a position to initiate self-fulfilling prophecies !!!

    here's some additional commentary for you to chew on ( or chew up ) ... from


    (snip)Where to From Here?

    Never in the history of the world has there been a situation so bad that the government can’t make it worse.
    ~ Henry Morganthau Jr., 1939

    We have a massive global debt problem that will take years to unwind. Some think it is a zero-sum game, but I disagree. The World is blanketed with people fully aware of what has been promised to them but oblivious to their share of the tab. The average tax payer in the US, for example, is unaware that they owe $30,000 simply to pay off the state pension liabilities to some average tax payers. Larry Kotlikoff, the undisputed World's expert on unfunded liabilities, estimates there are $211 trillion [45]. This is approximately $2 million per taxpayer. Do you think taxpayers have budgeted for that one?

    Let's go off shore. Billions of nouveau capitalists in the emerging world are expecting the American Dream, but who will provide all those goods and services? Americans? The problem is one of a massive misalignment of perception and reality on a global scale. Years ago I wrote a blog on this and believe that it still rings true [46]. This impending deleveraging will occur in the face of massively aging populations in the industrialized world. Demographic shifts are considered a profound determinant of future economic activity.

    The student loan crisis may seem small when compared with these global issues, but it's a big one for us. The current graduates are starting out in a hole from which it will be difficult to exit. Discharging debts seems distasteful, but so do decades of undischargeable debt with ballooning penalties hanging over a large portion of a generation. I worry, however, about the select group of really brainy folks expected to change the world. Think Steve Jobs. Some will be forced to work for corporations to get a paycheck and "three squares a day" rather than forge off into the great unknown and create wealth on monstrous scales. How many of those guys do you need to divert down a more conservative path before you hurt the economy? Possibly just a couple.

    The democratization of the markets provided a cornerstone to this malaise we face. We replaced defined benefit plans with defined contribution plans, which, in conjunction with the wildly popular index funds, moved both the risk and oversight responsibility from titanic pension managers to countless millions of individuals. This sounds great so far, but there was nobody of any clout to watch the store. The shareholders have, in practice, no say whatsoever over corporate governance. This, I believe, is the root cause of the considerable corporate malfeasance. CEOs began stacking corporate boards with friends and boards appointed their friends as CEOs, all sharing the one common belief that compensation, not returns to shareholders, should be maximized. It opened the floodgates of greed and avarice. I had occasion to present this blasphemous notion to John Bogle – the creator of index funds – and he agreed. Knock me over with a feather.

    Wealth disparity (for want of a better term) is at record levels. Of course, even mention of that will cause those with wealth to fear an imminent government-based wealth redistribution that can't possibly work well (because government can't possibly work well.) There are pragmatic issues independent of moral concerns, however, that should not be dismissed. A well-oiled economy distributes wealth in ways that may seem unfair to some but are efficient. I suspect there are hallmarks – characteristic distributions – that are emblematic of growing wealth and prosperity. A decades-long growing disparity is probably not one of those hallmarks. The clock is ticking.

    The populace is beginning to wake up to this reality. Unrest began with one incredibly flammable Tunisian. While on foreign shores, we gave it cute names like “Arab Spring”. When unrest migrated to London it became decidedly less refreshing. Social change has now washed up on US shores superficially as Occupy Wall Street (OWS). At its inception, OWS appeared almost comical, but somehow it simply would not go away despite efforts to dismiss it by those attempting to preserve the status quo. Take a volatile mix of young adults – the demographic at the center of all revolutionary social movements – add a little pepper spray, stir it with some Billy clubs, post videos on YouTube, and you have the beginnings of social upheaval. OWS is said to be a highly disjointed group with no common denominator or even well-formulated gripes. I completely disagree. Admittedly, some are asking to be relieved of pain from self-inflicted wounds, but there is one theme: They all perceive that the system has become decidedly unfair. It's not about equal opportunity; wealth and power necessarily accrue disproportionate opportunities. We all work hard to give our kids an edge. It is about a perceived absence of opportunity for a growing segment of the population. It would be incorrect to do a head count at street level and conclude the movement is small. Millions are watching from the comfort of their homes and offices in what I believe is silent support. This movement could get legs as it percolates up through the social strata.

    Strauss and Howe's predicted Fourth Turning crisis phase may have arrived. But there is already a nasty mood in the air. Watch the following soccer video [47]. The hooligan runs around the field and, when grabbed by the police, gets roughed up a little. The players and fans beat the tar out of the police. Something has changed. Some think maybe it started on 9/11. This may be true for Iraqis, but not for us because we dusted ourselves off and moved along. Others say it was the financial crisis. Closer but that is still not quite right. I think the societal rollover occurred when the financial crisis arrived and abated, yet absolutely nothing changed. We are in a big hole as illustrated by US employment stats in Figure 6. If this recovery stalls, promptly unplug all fans.




    (snip)

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 01-02-2012 at 04:41 PM.

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Ahhhh... it's good to see the dollar den of doom and gloom in a state of high dudgeon. I feel so much better now.

    Z

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ granted there is a wide array of posted commentary, ranging from the insightful to the absurd.

    Personally speaking, I tend to give at least some creedence to GS since they have so many 'alumni' at the FED and in the US Treasury / gov't that they are actually in a position to initiate self-fulfilling prophecies !!!

    here's some additional commentary for you to chew on ( or chew up )

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...-wrong/249936/

    The Graph That Proves Economic Forecasters Are Almost Always Wrong
    DEC 13 2011, 1:43 PM ET 5
    As the saying goes: "It's hard to make predictions. Especially about the future." Thirty years ago, it was obvious to everybody that oil prices would keep going up forever. Twenty years ago, it was obvious that Japan would own the 21st century. Ten years ago, it was obvious that our economic stewards had mastered a kind of thermostatic control over business cycles to prevent great recessions. We were wrong, wrong, and wrong.

    So, how wrong are economic forecasters about their big predictions today? Fortunately, we have a way to measure that sort of thing -- the gap between expectations and reality. It's called the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index.

    A high Surprise Index indicates that economic figures have been stronger than analysts projected. A low Surprise Index indicates that the economy is doing much worse than analysts predict.

    Today, economic data are outperforming predictions by the most in almost a year, Bloomberg reported this week. Compare with this summer, when experts thought the economy should be slowly improving, whereas indicators suggested we were in fact nearing a recession.

    Here is your roller coaster on the Surprise Index for the last three years:


    There are a few lessons to glean from the Surprise Index, which I was only made aware of this week. First, predictions are often reported as news. They're not. They're predictions, and they're almost always wrong. Full disclosure: I've been as guilty as anyone for breathlessly passing along predictions without the qualifying them as conjecture. Second, to be fair to the analysts, sometimes the first draft of the economic figures aren't any better than the predictions. A great example: We initially estimated GDP falling 3.8% in the last three months of 2008. Instead, it fell nearly 9%. That's a horrible miscalculation that had a real impact on decisions made by Congress and the Federal Reserve to fix the economy. I wonder what the Economic Surprise Index would say about first readings of GDP and unemployment numbers.

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post




    (snip)

    ~
    As to your graph on Job losses, is that taking into consideration all the people who are starting their own businesses?. It seems to me that a lot of what you are bemoaning daily as disaster for many years now is in fact only change.

    In the past you've touted how brick and mortar stores were falling by the wayside and that it meant economic doom and the destruction of the economy- when in fact all that happened was that things were progressing to where $billions of dollars of commerce were being transacted online.

    You've pointed out where stripclub revenues and attendance were in massive decline and the industry and owners, employees and customers were going to suffer massively, when in fact it was just a transformation into camming and other online opportunities evolving.

    You've been railing on job losses and how that will destroy the economy and create incredible suffering and dark times, but those times have yet to appear many years after your prognosis, there are very few if any people starving in the street as a result of economic conditions, there are no homeless tent cities, or riots. All the while millions of people are starting their own small business and getting involved in small entrepenurial opportunities.

    I think there is a single thread that goes through each of these dynamics, we are in a time of great change and it's happening quickly. Some people will react to these changing times by seeing opportunity and bettering their position and others will fear the change and try to cling to their comfort zone and the indicators that in the past made sense of the world. I think this is one of the fundamental factors for the divisiveness we're currently experiencing in the country- it goes to the very heart of being a conservative or a progressive. The crux however is that things must change, it's inevitable and necessary and there is no way to stop it.

    In my opinion, all the items mentioned above are part of a progressing evolution. The trend is towards more opportunity, freedom and and a wider distribution. People now have a lot more choices, they can shop in a brick or mortar- or they can shop online, they can open a b/m or they can open an online store, they choose to work in a strip-club- or they can cam, custies have the option to interact in person or online.
    Last edited by jimboe7373; 01-02-2012 at 09:58 PM.

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Some people will react to these changing times by seeing opportunity and bettering their position and others will fear the change and try to cling to their comfort zone and the indicators that in the past made sense of the world. I think this is one of the fundamental factors for the divisiveness we're currently experiencing in the country- it goes to the very heart of being a conservative or a progressive. The crux however is that things must change, it's inevitable and necessary and there is no way to stop it.

    Agreed that there are always opportunities for an enterprising individual.

    Agreed that things must change. NOT agreed that things are changing for the better ! For that some extremely basic fundamentals are necessary ... like more new jobs being created than new people entering the US workforce ... like a private sector GDP that is growing faster than the US population ... like average after-tax paychecks that are growing relative to 'real world' price inflation. Show me these fundamentals, or even something remotely close to these fundamentals, and you'll have made a 'convert'.


    it's good to see the dollar den of doom and gloom in a state of high dudgeon. I feel so much better now
    wow ... and I haven't even mentioned any 'black swans' yet !

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Agreed that there are always opportunities for an enterprising individual.

    Agreed that things must change. NOT agreed that things are changing for the better ! For that some extremely basic fundamentals are necessary ... like more new jobs being created than new people entering the US workforce ... like a private sector GDP that is growing faster than the US population ... like average after-tax paychecks that are growing relative to 'real world' price inflation. Show me these fundamentals, or even something remotely close to these fundamentals, and you'll have made a 'convert'.
    Great points Mel and a great example of how the "old" parameters of measuring success may no longer apply. The concepts of "jobs" and "US workforce" for many people are now obsolete. If you have an online store or online business, you are no longer concerned with having a job, and your clients most definitely need not be only in the US. I think that we are living in a time where the opportunities and the "real world" realities are evolving and moving faster than anyone's abilities to quantify or calculate them. We are in new territory and the tools to measure and keep track of progress will have to catch up and evolve, if they ever can.

    A member of my family was laid off from his tech job 2 years ago and developed a technology for fuel efficiency in car and truck fleets. A company in India developed the software, a company in Argentina marketing the product to hundreds of companies in Europe. He has never met the software developer in India or any of the end users in Europe and yet he has made close to $1million to date. He and many like him will not show up as an employment statistic in the US and most of the money he has earned will not show up in the US GDP.

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Jimboe, your anecdotal incident is arguably a perfect example of the 1% versus 99% hypothesis.

    Your successful family member had the technical education, the technical experience, the industry contacts, the access to venture capital etc. necessary to turn his fantastic idea into an economic reality. And arguably, the viability of your family member's end product depended on the ultra low technical labor costs available in India, plus a sales and marketing channel that avoids high US corporate tax rates. Thus in the final analysis, one American millionaire was created, zero other US jobs were created, minimal US tax revenues are being generated etc.

    This is obviously a wonderful success story for your family member, but one step closer to 'third world' economic status for the US in general. It did not reduce the number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits by more than one, it did not reduce the number of Americans depending on food stamps and social welfare benefits. Arguably, US capital was deployed outside the USA, making the funding of future US new business ventures more difficult. And of course any new American IT graduates have essentially zero chance of duplicating your family member's success even if they have similarly wonderful new ideas, since they will have great difficulty finding an opportunity to take the 'first step' i.e. gaining real world experience in their chosen field ... which in turn would lead to making industry contacts ... which in turn would lead to building credibility in regard to venture capital funding.

    The 'old school' financial fundamentals I cited, which you argue are obsolete, in fact measure the economic 'well being' and economic 'opportunities' for the 99%.


    If you have an online store or online business, you are no longer concerned with having a job,
    Well, that's certainly true for the 25,000+ former California affiliates of Amazon.com ... who were 'fired en masse' due to California's corporate 'nexus' law.


    there are very few if any people starving in the street as a result of economic conditions, there are no homeless tent cities, or riots
    True ... thanks to an extra 4 trillion dollars worth of US gov't debt used to fund extended unemployment benefits, food stamps, social welfare benefits etc ... as well as many millions of dollars worth of police force overtime pay in many major US cities to evict would-be 'tent cities' and quell civil unrest before it can build momentum.


    and your clients most definitely need not be only in the US
    let's wait and see how SOPA , FBAR, etc. affect this aspect. There are some who would point out that a large measure of past internet based financial success has actually been based on ... de-facto 'exemptions' from US sales taxes ... de-facto ( self-help based or non-repatriation based ) 'exemptions' from US business income taxes ... heavily subsidized operating costs ( 'free' bandwidth ) etc. States like California have attempted to close these 'windows of opportunity', and the US federal gov't is now following suit in earnest.


    The trend is towards more opportunity, freedom and and a wider distribution.
    Arguably this was true 10 years ago. Arguably, this is increasingly no longer the case today ... at least for 99% of Americans.

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 01-04-2012 at 04:25 AM.

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Jimboe, your anecdotal incident is arguably a perfect example of the 1% versus 99% hypothesis. Your successful family member had the technical education, the technical experience, the industry contacts, the access to venture capital etc. necessary to turn his fantastic idea into an economic reality. And arguably, the viability of your family member's end product depended on the ultra low technical labor costs available in India, plus a sales and marketing channel that avoids high US corporate tax rates. Thus in the final analysis, one American millionaire was created, zero other US jobs were created, minimal US tax revenues are being generated etc.

    This is obviously a wonderful success story for your family member, but one step closer to 'third world' economic status for the US in general. It did not reduce the number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits by more than one, it did not reduce the number of Americans depending on food stamps and social welfare benefits. Arguably, US capital was deployed outside the USA, making the funding of future US new business ventures more difficult. And of course any new American IT graduates have essentially zero chance of duplicating your family member's success, since they will have great difficulty finding an opportunity to take the 'first step' i.e. gaining real world experience in their chosen field.
    As always Mel, your ability to diligently search for weeds in the flowerbed has turned up results. I gave one simple example in response to illustrate how the traditional methods of tracking success in the economy are no longer valid and you sidestep that point to make additional negative analysis- so now I'll counter those as they are not valid and then you will seek to find negatives related to those examples that don't relate to original reason they were given. I've got the M.O., but here we go anyway:

    As mentioned, the example of my cousins business was given purely to show how the old fashioned critieria for quantifying business activity are many times no longer valid. While some of what you stated about my cousins case was true you omitted (as far as US interests go) that he paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in US taxes last year, he bought several luxury cars and a boat (paid local sales tax on those) bought a much bigger house in his home state and a vacation home in another state, spent tens of thousands furnishing both of them, spent additional tens of thousands in renovations and landscaping for both houses, provided the seed money for a childhood friends family to start a restaurant which is now operating successfully (and employing 15 people). This is just a small percentage of the economic impact he is having within his town, state and country. In addition, all of these expenditures and taxes are paid with money coming in from European sources and represent a net gain to the US.

    Where you are incorrect in your analysis of him is that he did not have a big tech backround (he was relatively low level in his previous job), he did not really have contacts to speak of and he had pretty much no money but was able to get initial funding from a source that is open to pretty much anyone with a good idea: http://www.virgin.com/entrepreneur/got-a-big-idea. There are hundreds of programs like this that will provide seed money and guidance for entrepreneurs and those wishing to start business.

    It is also true that there are many thousands of people like my cousin who started somewhat complicated tech oriented businesses, there are millions who have started very simple ventures that require very little skill, experience or know-how. The 4-Hour Work Week concept from Tim Ferris has provided a format that hundreds of thousands of people have used to become economically independent while only working part-time over the past few years- here are just some examples: http://www.fourhourworkweek.com/blog...ow-businesses/

    Here is an example of dozens of young entrepreneurs creating commerce and expanding the economy is one of the worst urban blight zones in the country: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/03/fa...pagewanted=all

    Here is a program at Arizona State that provides funding, space and training to students who want to start a business- applications up 32% this year:http://entrepreneurship.asu.edu/2011...ase-32-percent

    Not just in the US:http://martynbrown.com/small-busines...ncrease-by-117 "The number of small business entrepreneurs in the UK has leapt by 117% in the past five years", "The number of female entrepreneurs also saw a significant increase – up 72% over the past five years"

    There are thousands and thousands of programs like this one to assist people in all different fields with everything necessary to get a business started: http://www.kauffman.org/entrepreneur...s-program.aspx

    Here are dozens and dozens of stories of everyday people who have created successful businesses: http://www.entrepreneur.com/starting...ies/index.html

    There are programs like Kiva that provide funding, mentoring and assistance for the poorest of the poor to start their own enterprise: http://www.kiva.org/

    And finally on another anectdotal example, a guy on my block who has been laid off for a few years scraped up $2,500 from family and friends and he and his wife bought a hot-dog cart. They now has 10 carts that he places outside of area nightclubs, he makes over $15,000 per month on about a 12 hour a work week.

    We are in the midst of a major shift, it's not much different than the major shift in transportation in the early part of the 1900's, people who insisted on being blacksmiths and involved with horse transportation saw more and more declining revenue and those who sought to get involved with the newly emerging automobile industry saw high levels of opportunity and success, sometimes to levels never before seen. Same is happening now regarding jobs and entrepreneurship.
    Last edited by jimboe7373; 01-04-2012 at 06:38 AM. Reason: spelling correction

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Well, that's certainly true for the 25,000+ former California affiliates of Amazon.com ... who were 'fired en masse' due to California's corporate 'nexus' law.
    If you can be "fired", then you are not a true entrepreneur.

    True ... thanks to an extra 4 trillion dollars worth of US gov't debt used to fund extended unemployment benefits, food stamps, social welfare benefits etc ... as well as many millions of dollars worth of police force overtime pay in many major US cities to evict would-be 'tent cities' and quell civil unrest before it can build momentum.
    Well then I would say those policies have been very effective and we should all be grateful that they have been able to keep the peace until we are on sounder economic footing and have the ability to pay down the debt.

    let's wait and see how SOPA , FBAR, etc. affect this aspect. There are some who would point out that a large measure of past internet based financial success has actually been based on ... de-facto 'exemptions' from US sales taxes ... de-facto ( self-help based or non-repatriation based ) 'exemptions' from US business income taxes ... heavily subsidized operating costs ( 'free' bandwidth ) etc. States like California have attempted to close these 'windows of opportunity', and the US federal gov't is now following suit in earnest.
    As has been part of my central thesis, yes there will always be change, but each time there is change a new set of opportunities will open up for those looking for them and seeking to fill the new needs.

    Arguably this was true 10 years ago. Arguably, this is increasingly no longer the case today ... at least for 99% of Americans.
    Absolutely untrue, with the increases in technology, ease and speed of transferring money and access to internet, publishing and venture capital there has never in the history of the human race been more opportunity for an individual to start their own business. How many of the dozens and dozens of cam girls on this very site would be able to have a profitable business of their own 10 years ago?

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    If you can be "fired", then you are not a true entrepreneur
    Agreed in principle. However, for the past several years, the 'paid placement' aspects of internet search engines, the Section 2257 'Tracy Lords Law', volume scaled web hosting costs etc. has resulted in a huge number of former true entrepreneurs being forced to become 'quasi' entrepreneurs who now depend on a large host site. This is true for Amazon affiliate sellers, E-Bay sellers, and virtually all camgirls.


    we should all be grateful that they have been able to keep the peace until we are on sounder economic footing and have the ability to pay down the debt.
    arguably, absent debasing the US dollar, this is now a practical impossibility.


    How many of the dozens and dozens of cam girls on this very site would be able to have a profitable business of their own 10 years ago?
    Potentially ALL of them ( assuming that they were age 18+ at the time ). IFriends started webcam hosting circa 1996, and a few of us SW girls were indeed camming back then. It was also possible to operate an independent webcam from an independent website with search engine traffic based on merit ( not paid placement ), with minimal legal risk ( as opposed to today's potential federal felony charges for Section 2257 violations ), and the ability of an adult oriented internet business to process customer credit card charges at an affordable price via a merchant account ( as opposed to today's extremely high 'assigned risk' percentages charged by 'specialty' processing services that will still accept adult businesses ). Obviously, since then, webcam earnings potential has declined steadily.

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    True ... thanks to an extra 4 trillion dollars worth of US gov't debt used to fund extended unemployment benefits, food stamps, social welfare benefits etc ... as well as many millions of dollars worth of police force overtime pay in many major US cities to evict would-be 'tent cities' and quell civil unrest before it can build momentum.
    ~
    You're making stuff up again. Most of the $4 trillion in debt wasn't used for funding extended unemployment benefits, food stamps, social welfare benefits etc ...

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Agreed in principle. However, for the past several years, the 'paid placement' aspects of internet search engines, the Section 2257 'Tracy Lords Law', volume scaled web hosting costs etc. has resulted in a huge number of former true entrepreneurs being forced to become 'quasi' entrepreneurs who now depend on a large host site. This is true for Amazon affiliate sellers, E-Bay sellers, and virtually all camgirls
    There are dozens of techniques to drive traffic without paid placement, there are free and very inexpensive courses online how to do it. There are millions of web-based businesses that don't rely on Amazon, Ebay or being an affiliate. The vast majority of those sites are non-adult themed and there is no concern over Section 2257.




    arguably, absent debasing the US dollar, this is now a practical impossibility.
    Many said the same thing after Bush I's term and yet they were able to make huge progress in paying down the debt during the following 8 years.




    Potentially ALL of them ( assuming that they were age 18+ at the time ). IFriends started webcam hosting circa 1996, and a few of us SW girls were indeed camming back then. It was also possible to operate an independent webcam from an independent website with search engine traffic based on merit ( not paid placement ), with minimal legal risk ( as opposed to today's potential federal felony charges for Section 2257 violations ), and the ability of an adult oriented internet business to process customer credit card charges at an affordable price via a merchant account ( as opposed to today's extremely high 'assigned risk' percentages charged by 'specialty' processing services that will still accept adult businesses ). Obviously, since then, webcam earnings potential has declined steadily.
    Potentially ALL but in retrospect and reality only a very few, obviously there are conditions now that make it easier and more readily available for a much larger number of girls to be involved in this enterprise, as evidenced by the....the much larger number of girls involved in this enterprise currently.

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Most of the $4 trillion in debt wasn't used for funding extended unemployment benefits, food stamps, social welfare benefits etc
    Admittedly true. Much of that money was also used to prevent teachers and gov't workers from joining the ranks of the unemployed quite so soon, was used to create temporary 'green energy' jobs etc. While the method of 'transfer payments' is different, the intended end result is arguably very similar.


    Potentially ALL but in retrospect and reality only a very few, obviously there are conditions now that make it easier and more readily available for a much larger number of girls to be involved in this enterprise, as evidenced by the....the much larger number of girls involved in this enterprise currently.
    Yes but the conditions that now exist that have made it easier and more readily available have come at a 'cost'. Today's 'Quasi-entrepreneur' camgirls now receive a far smaller 'cut' of webcam customer dollars. Today's 'Quasi-entrepreneur' camgirls have been forced to move in the direction of adult webcam hosts because of increased gov't regulations ... from Section 2257 compliance risk, to a greatly restricted ability for any independent adult oriented internet business to process customer online credit card charges at an 'affordable' price.

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Yes but the conditions that now exist that have made it easier and more readily available have come at a 'cost'. Today's 'Quasi-entrepreneur' camgirls now receive a far smaller 'cut' of webcam customer dollars. Today's 'Quasi-entrepreneur' camgirls have been forced to move in the direction of adult webcam hosts because of increased gov't regulations ... from Section 2257 compliance risk, to a greatly restricted ability for any independent adult oriented internet business to process customer online credit card charges at an 'affordable' price.
    What you are labeling as the "cost" is just more of the inevevitable change that will always occur. It will also provide additional opportunity for those inclined to look for it, for many of the hassles and limitations that are created by tighter regulation and any other factors, there will be people who will seek to provide solutions to minimize the negative aspects of the inevitable changes that will always occur. I am involved with managing properties in Latin America and most of the clients are from the US, transferring money is a big hassle and a huge expense. As an example of what I mentioned above, a new company has just stepped in and made money transfer super easy and only $.25 per transaction: https://www.dwolla.com/ this makes all the difference in the world for my transactions.

    As Thomas Friedman pointed out, "The World is Flat". Could not cam girls who felt especially stymied by the restrictions or costs of US regulation relocate to somewhere pleasant to live that didn't have the restrictions?. I have several friends living down here in Panama that are working US jobs by internet and phone and make US salaries while paying $1,400 for maxed-out high rise apartments that would cost $4,500 in NY or Miami, are enjoying some of the best restaurants and nightlife in the world and have great weather along with $80 a month health insurance from John Hopkins medical and can have a live in maid do all the cooking, cleaning, laundry and food shopping for $175 per month.

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    ^^^ I'm obviously on the same wavelength as you are in regard to pursuing better opportunities outside of the USA. However, unlike your ex-pat friends in Panama or my ex-pat friends to the north and east of Panama, most Americans still reject the notion that it's increasingly necessary to leave the USA in order to find true opportunities. As you point out, that will change in time. It is hoped, though, that US gov't erected obstacles to leaving ( money transfer restrictions, collection of 'anticipated' capital gains taxes on transferred assets etc. ) don't create a future 'locked door' !

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    ^^^Yes, definitely agreed, there will be a big shift out of the US as it will make more and more sense to more and more people. We are getting tons of new arrivals down here. There are still some moves that can help alleviate the US tax burden, you have the Foreign Earned Income Exclusion which I believe is currently at $91,500 per year. Down here you can also work things through a Private Interest Foundation which will still give you a degree of anonymity and protection even though the US has recently made pretty strong moves to counter banking privacy worldwide etc.

    The other evolutionary trend that is possible is that if the US gets more and more restrictive and repressive, it may be less and less of a value and more of a hassle to retain US citizenship. There are a lot of younger people coming down here now and starting businesses, they don't have a lot of assets in the US, if you the US keeps on it's current track I could totally see where they would consider doing what would once have been unthinkable and give up their US citizenship.

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Admittedly true. Much of that money was also used to prevent teachers and gov't workers from joining the ranks of the unemployed quite so soon, was used to create temporary 'green energy' jobs etc. While the method of 'transfer payments' is different, the intended end result is arguably very similar.
    No it wasn't. You're referring to the stimulus, which was approximately $800 billion. Most of the increase in debt is the result of policies of the previous administration. The tax cuts, two wars, a new Medicare plan, a new government agency, interest on the debt run up over the previous 8 years, and the financial crisis.

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    As to declining food prices, keep dreaming ! Many food processing and food distribution companies are reporting major declines in profit margins as they are unable to pass on wholesale food price increases that are already in the pipeline to retail customers. Ultimately these 'losses' will be absorbed by company stockholders, and in some cases businesses going bankrupt and jobs being lost.
    http://www.jsonline.com/news/wiscons...136728558.html
    Food prices down in late 2011, Farm Bureau says
    "The group does quarterly surveys of food prices by analyzing the costs of 16 commonly purchased foods. It says those foods cost an average of $48.35 last quarter, or 4% less than in the previous quarter."


    "Items that saw price drops of at least 10% last quarter were apples, potatoes, bacon, flour and bagged salad."


    http://naturalresourcereport.com/201...prices-drop-7/
    Food prices drop 7%
    January 6, 2012
    Retail Food Prices Moderate Slightly in Fourth Quarter
    By American Farm Bureau Federation
    "Meat and dairy products accounted for about half of the quarter-to-quarter retail price decrease. Sliced deli ham decreased 74 cents to $4.69 per pound, shredded cheddar decreased 38 cents to $4.32 per pound, bacon decreased 36 cents to $4.05 per pound, sirloin tip roast dropped 13 cents to $4.15 per pound, ground chuck dropped 10 cents to $3.17 per pound, boneless chicken breasts decreased 9 cents to $3.24 per pound and eggs dropped 6 cents to $1.72 for one dozen."

    http://www.newsroompanama.com/panama...rediction.html
    World food prices to fall -- UN prediction
    THURSDAY, 05 JANUARY 2012 10:58 WORLD FOOD prices will probably fall this year, said Jose Graziano da Silva, the new director general of the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.
    UN thinks prices will start to return to earth
    Declines probably will be smaller than in 2009, according to the director general. As of February of that year, an index of world food prices compiled by the FAO had slumped 37 percent in 14 months. The gauge dropped 9.5 percent through last November from a record high in February 2011 as dairy, grain and sugar prices retreated.

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    No it wasn't. You're referring to the stimulus, which was approximately $800 billion. Most of the increase in debt is the result of policies of the previous administration. The tax cuts, two wars, a new Medicare plan, a new government agency, interest on the debt run up over the previous 8 years, and the financial crisis.
    Naughty ! This is blatantly "political" and exactly the sort of stuff we are NOT supposed to post anymore. Plus it is factually incomplete - what else is new ?
    Rather than run afoul myself of the "political" guidelines, I merely suggest that anyone interested check what the deficit was when Obama took office and what it is now.

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    Default Re: 2012 Positive Economic Predictions from WealthDaily

    In fairness, the latest job numbers are out and the private sector added 200,000 jobs in December. Unemployment is down to 8.5% and the REAL rate is down to 15.5%.

    These are supposedly "seasonally adjusted". The real "proof in the pudding" will be next month's numbers. Plus the overall pool of workers has shrunk thanks to all those who have given up looking for work. Just to get a full percentage point drop in the unemployment rate, we have to add a net increase of at least 3 million jobs per year ; at least 250,000 new jobs per month.

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