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Thread: when will Gold plummet to $300?

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    Default when will Gold plummet to $300?

    About the only thing the clueless doom-gloomers aka Gold bugs been right is the price of gold, which brings us to the question....

    When will $9 Trillion of this worthless pile of rock start plummeting in value?

    The obvious ones will be when USA and the global economy recovers (along with positive real rates).....

    But, brainwashed by the most clueless web-site, zerohedge, gold bugs sitting in their Iowan basements will be hit by one of the many black swan events

    i) Indians who own > $4 Trillion worth of Gold have started using Gold as an ATM machine. We know how well that always ends. Forced Liquidations on the biggest gold hoarders anyone?
    http://www.indianexpress.com/news/go...brakes/926762/

    or

    ii) Mother Nature can print gold faster than Ben Bernanke and its all very easy to recover with just a little bit of hippie-liberal-style innovation?
    http://www.theverge.com/2012/4/18/29...cameron-google


    So, which Hedge Fund is going to front-run this trade and crash the Gold prices to $300 and to it's eventual long-term price of $20?

    What's the time horizon?
    1 Yr or 5 Yrs?

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    ^^^ as soon as the US stops running current year gov't budget deficits ???

    as soon as the PIIGS stop feeding at the German / France / US ( via IMF ) financed trough ???


    (snip)Remarks By Chris Powell
    Secretary/Treasurer, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
    18th CLSA Investors' Forum
    Grand Hyatt Hotel, Hong Kong
    Wednesday, September 21, 2011

    As gold price suppression grows more brazen, maybe Asia will defeat it

    The speaker following me, George Clooney, will be able to tell you what it's like to be handsome, talented, rich, and famous. I could tell you what it's like not to be. But instead the conference has asked me to talk about gold, which at least might make you rich, or help you preserve some of whatever you've got.

    This opportunity is full of risk, because the gold market long has been manipulated by Western central banks to restrain the gold price. The Western central banks are slowly losing control of the market but they are not giving up easily.

    Why do Western central banks manipulate the gold market?

    The gold market is manipulated because, despite Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's insistence to Congress a few weeks ago that gold is not money, just "tradition," gold is indeed a currency that competes brutally with government-issued currencies and helps determine not only the value of those currencies but also interest rates and the value of government bonds.

    Gold's competition with currencies was documented in an academic study published in June 1988 in the Journal of Political Economy written by Harvard economics professor Lawrence Summers and University of Michigan economics professor Robert Barsky. Summers and Barsky found that, in a free market, there is an inverse relationship between the price of gold and the real rate of interest:



    The Summers and Barsky study implied that if governments could get control of the gold price, they could also get control of interest rates. Of course Summers went on to become deputy U.S. treasury secretary and then treasury secretary, positions in which skill in rigging markets is a great asset.

    Exactly how is the gold price rigged, and by whom?

    It has been rigged openly through outright sales of gold by central banks, as it was rigged openly in the 1960s by the group of Western central banks that operated what became known as the London gold pool, and, following the gold pool's collapse in 1968, rigged both openly and surreptitiously through central bank sales and lending of gold and by bullion bank short positions and derivatives that are supported by access to Western central bank gold.

    The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee has documented this rigging from official sources whose admissions are compiled in the "Documentation" section of our Internet site:



    That is, the gold price suppression scheme is not what it is sometimes disparaged as being, "conspiracy theory." Rather it is a matter of the most extensive public record -- at least for those who want to look at the record.

    These records include:

    -- Public statements by Federal Reserve officials, officials of other Western central banks, and the International Monetary Fund.

    -- Declassified Central Intelligence Agency memoranda.

    -- The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee.

    -- Filings and statements in three gold price suppression lawsuits in the United States; one brought by my committee’s consultant, Reginald H. Howe, against central banks and bullion banks in U.S. District Court in Boston in 2001; another brought by Blanchard Coin and Bullion against Barrick Gold Corp. in U.S. District Court in New Orleans in 2003; and the third brought two years ago by my organization against the Federal Reserve in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

    -- These records also include declassified or leaked U.S. State Department cables.

    -- Statistical studies done by market researchers like Adrian Douglas in the United States and Dimitri Speck in Germany.

    -- And testimony at the hearing about the precious metals markets that was held on March 25, 2010, by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That hearing produced testimony that led to the filing of a massive silver price rigging lawsuit against J.P. Morgan Chase. The revised complaint against J.P. Morgan Chase, filed last week in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, contains pages and pages of extraordinarily specific detail, identifying trades, traders, and dates( snip)


    ^^^ the take-away of course is that if deliberate FED / central bank / wall st bank action to suppress the price of gold has only managed to drive the price down to a $1500 floor recently, arguably because BRIC countries always start buying the dips, we won't see <$1000 per oz gold prices again short of a world-wide economic depression.



    its all very easy to recover with just a little bit of hippie-liberal-style innovation?

    As to the future market impact of asteroid mining, granted that there are now a slew of unemployed NASA engineers available to work on such a project !!! And there's probably a 'used'
    Space Shuttle available at bargain basement prices too with only a couple of billion miles on the odometer !!! However, I suspect that between the worker's comp premiums and liability insurance premiums, they'd have trouble turning a profit if working out of a US base even if the golden asteroid was 'free'. But if they could secure US gov't guaranteed loans plus tax credits for the uber-wealthy investors, such a venture could 'produce' milllions of dollars worth of US income tax savings on James Cameron's Hollywood profits ... without ever producing one ounce of of precious metals !

    Indeed this would fit right in as a successor to the various solar / wind / green energy tax credit investments previously favored by rich 'liberals' that are now starting to be exposed in mainstream media and bankruptcy court. And indeed it could ( indirectly ) return thousands of laid off former NASA employees to the gov't payroll ( via that gov't guaranteed startup loan that will never be repaid ) ... for a couple of years at least !!! And one can only assume that, like Solyndra and a growing list of other such companies, the investors will NOT be required to repay previous tax credits when the company finally does go bankrupt ( due to zero real profitability ).
    Last edited by Melonie; 04-19-2012 at 12:50 AM.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    like I said, the only straw that is holding all the zerohedge, safehaven, mish, schiff, celante, gata, prudentbear, ron paul, yourself is the price of gold.

    All your stupid crap idiotic theories can always be sort of illogically buttressed by Gold Price.
    However, now the question is, when, not if, the Gold will come crashing to the levels unheard of. There are 3 ways it can happen

    * Fundamentals catch up (yup, the gold idiots don't get this irony that the fundamental analysis they use to push Gold is fundamentally flawed)
    * Speculations get out of hand -- Indians, hoarding 30,000 tons of Gold, now for the first time in their history, are using Gold as ATMs (irony #2, 'paper/fiat' loans will crush gold prices)
    * New Frontiers of mining from an infinite resource source at a very cheap cost(irony #3 -- liberals crushing gold prices using soft human ingenuity against hard-asset-hoarding-idiots)

    Tune in on Apr 24th to hear how cheaply Gold, Precious metals and other rare earth materials can now be mined. (long term, Gold can be mined at $20)

    So, which of the 3 would deliver the death knell to Gold?.

    Again, Market Timing is hard, but in terms of irony, I'd love #3 happening (Also shoots down all of the conspiracy idiots, else you'll never hear the end of 'manipulation')

    Having said that, when Gold starts falling, it is never too late to short. Like Lehman brothers, You can short this thing all the way to $200 (or even $20)

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    ^^^Wow, it's really hard to even see what your talking points are since you're more concerned about insulting "gold bugs".

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Old posts are a pain in the ass...

    07-27-2010, 07:11 PM #60
    xanfiles1

    Default Re: 500K

    Easy...

    Earn some $10K. This would be a throw away money

    Buy Out-Of-The-Money Long Term Gold Puts.... i.e Bet, Just like Real Estate, Gold would fall below $800/oz within the next 2-3 years. (Just like all other bubbles too many idiots are guaranteeing gold returns, a recipe for a crash)

    If Gold falls to around 500-600, your put option will be worth around 600K.
    Dont you think it is time you sat down and learned something?
    Nature knows no indecencies; man invents them. ~ Mark Twain


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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    It is certainly POSSIBLE that at some point there will be a sell off in gold. I doubt we will see any such thing unless and until fears of inflation AND instability lessen dramatically. Right now there is NOTHING to indicate that either will be happening any time soon. Quite the contrary. Likewise, even if gold dropped to somewhere around $1000 an ounce it would be a dramatic loss in value. About 40% approx. but it would still be selling for $1000 an ounce. More than twice what it was selling for just a few years ago.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    ^^^ my personal opinion regarding the future of physical gold isn't as 'fanatical' as the so-called 'gold bugs', and goes as follows ...

    Unless and until the FED / US Gov't PROVES to the rest of the world that they are serious about bringing gov't spending versus tax revenues into line, as well as abandoning massive US dollar 'printing' as a means of dealing with high debt levels, there is zero chance that the price of gold will decline to the US$1000 per ounce level let alone the US$300 level.

    As long as China, India etc. continue to run a massive balance of trade surplus versus the USA, they are going to need to 'diversify' their currency risk ( i.e. holding even more trillions in US dollar denominated assets would only make them MORE vulnerable to future losses due to a decline in US dollar exchange rate = 'purchasing power' vs their home currencies ). With the only other 'multi-trillion dollar currency' the Euro now presenting an equal or greater degree of future loss risk, they will use gold as a paper currency substitute for diversification.

    In the medium term at least, I'm betting that China and India 'buying the dips' will effectively place a US$ 1500 per ounce floor under the price of gold. This could change as the result of 'TaxMageddon" becoming a reality in January 2013, and/or a 'regime change' at the FED and/or 1600 Pennsylvania Ave, but otherwise not.

    In the short term, historical analysis of 'election year' US economics would tend to indicate that the FED will continue to 'inject' newly printed US dollars to levitate the US stock markets and suppress US Treasury bond interest rates ( via 'giving' newly printed US dollars to FED primary dealer banks to be used for auction purchase of new US Treasury bonds ) through November at least ... which if anything will create UPWARD pressure on the US dollar denominated gold price.


    Dont you think it is time you sat down and learned something?
    yup, that 2010 gold put options purchase recommendation would have been a good way to lose your entire 10 grand 'investment' !!!

    In case anybody is wondering, from the time that gold puts recommendation was first posted, gold has gone from ~$1200 to ~$1700
    Last edited by Melonie; 04-20-2012 at 01:35 PM.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vamp View Post
    Old posts are a pain in the ass...



    Dont you think it is time you sat down and learned something?

    Thanks for the history.....


    Quote Originally Posted by xanfiles1 View Post

    The obvious ones will be when USA and the global economy recovers (along with positive real rates).....


    Yea.... I'm sure positive real rates are just around the corner....
    The country has been looted.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Gold will be the way back..... Once the "Con"fidence is broken.
    The country has been looted.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vamp View Post
    Old posts are a pain in the ass...



    Dont you think it is time you sat down and learned something?
    I was wrong about the timing... even though technically 2-3 years gives me an end date of 7/27/2013.

    But still I was wrong.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Actually Xan your premise was wrong because it was based on pure economic fundamentals ... and did not take into account the willingness and unprecedented degree to which the US and many other countries' central banks would go to 'manipulate' their currencies, their debt, and/or the private financial sector of their economies. Lots of other predictions based on pure economic fundamentals haven't come to pass either.

    The REAL point of these 'failed' predictions ... including my own 'failed' prediction that the heavy financial sector weighted S&P 500 really belongs at 1000 ... is whether the 'manipulations' have produced a permanent change, versus the 'manipulations' being effective only as long as gov'ts and central banks continue to create new paper money, new debt etc. to sustain a temporary effect. If it's the latter, then a huge and painful return to 'normal' must eventually happen. So far this has only happened re the 'housing bubble', which still has some ways to go before 'normal' pricing levels return.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Fundamental analysis:
    Raw Materials is infinite
    Humanities ingenuity mathematically is infinite

    You need infinite money-supply (growing at the rate of human ingenuity) to support/grease growth.
    Since stable governments have a 100 - 200 year horizon, they can print as much money and issue as much debt (The only thing they have to worry is actual inflation)

    in 2002, World economy was $10 Trillion, Now it is around $65 Trillion. i.e to maintain price stability they had to print 6.5 times more money

    Money Printing / Debt issuance should happen till there is no excess capacity (Right now the world has excess capacity).

    zerobrains, ron paul, schiff, austrian economics, and their ilk don't get it.

    There is no meaningful inflation (despite idiot John Williams or idiot Ron Paul has to say)
    http://bpp.mit.edu/

    As long as their are productivity increases and debt defaults, the world can absorb money printing

    Gold prices went up because Indian / Chinese economy grew 500% in the past 12 years which enabled for them to blow their money by buying worthless pieces of rock

    Both Indian/Chinese economy are slowing significantly.
    At the margin, Gold Investment will fall if there is no potential for price increase.

    Fundamental analysis alone will support a gold crash. Not to mention the other two black swan events

    Disclosure:
    * Libertarian since 1998 (when Libertarianism was filled with intellectual discussions, facts, logic and thought experiments. Disgusted with Ron Paul, Beck & Judge's stupdity since 2010).
    * Fan of Hayek, read 'Theory of Money & credit" cover to cover, both of schiff's books
    * Only Keynes has built a more correct model of the world including human behavior and dynamic analysis.

    Take it for what it's worth. At the end of the day, its not politics, its your freaking money

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    in 2002, World economy was $10 Trillion, Now it is around $65 Trillion. i.e to maintain price stability they had to print 6.5 times more money
    WHAT price stability ??? By what must undoubtedly be 'sheer coincidence' the 2012 = 65 Trillion /2002 =10 Trillion => 6.5 x expansion of global money supply corresponds almost exactly to the 2012 ~$1650 / 2002 = ~$280 => 5.9 x increase in the price of gold !!! And, by another 'sheer coincidence', the 2012 = ~$104 / 2002 = ~$18 => 5.9 x increase in the price of oil !!!

    A cynic would point out the strong probability that the 6.5 x increase in global paper money supply over the past decade actually consists of 100 x ( 6.5 / 5.9 ) - 100 or 10% REAL growth, with the balance being currency debasement / price inflation.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Agreed on human ingenuity being infinite, especially with programs like this starting to be implemented:

    http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2012/...-on-asteroids/

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    ^^^ yup, with a billion dollars worth of US based film industy royalty income to be taxed at even higher rates next year, cynics would tell you that the human ingenuity exhibited by James Cameron's attorneys and accountants to develop new tax shelters is indeed nearly infinite !!! This would take the concept of 'offshore tax haven' to a literal whole new level !!! The only thing else Cameron needs is for the US gov't via NASA or DOE or whatever pocket to force US taxpayers to backstop gov't guaranteed loans to finance the bulk of this project a la Solyndra, Tesla, Fisker et al !!!

    Whatever science fiction writers may dream up, the fact remains that it costs $10,000 per pound to lift ANYTHING into earth orbit. That translates into a cost of $10,000 per day just to 'feed' these future asteroid mine technicians ... which is high even by government convention 'food' budget standards !!! Granted that some clever engineering might reduce that by a factor of 2 or perhaps even three in the future. Even so, terrestrial precious metals mining operations aren't significantly profitable now ( outside near zero safety / environmental regulations China / Africa etc. at any rate ), let alone tacking on that sort of additional cost factor.

    And has been pointed out elsewhere, even if such an asteroid mining operation were to be organized, the additional supply of precious metals added to the world market would indeed begin to tank worldwide precious metals prices ... in the same way that the US opening up new production sources for crude oil would begin to tank the worldwide oil price. Same production costs against a falling market price for the 'product' equals falling profit margins ( if there were any profit margins to begin with ). Of course if the major interest of the investors is to achieve a tax write off against 'conventional' taxable income, that would be a 'positive'.
    Last edited by Melonie; 04-22-2012 at 12:34 PM.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    How am I not surprised you have cynical, negative comments on this.

    As far as the additional supply of precious metals tanking prices, that would depend if the market was manipulated and loaded with speculators or not as oil is.

    Thank God there are many people who don't share your narrow, pessimistic and short-term "only do it if it's profitable right now" view. If not, we would not have had any of the great inventions and improvements to mankind that have come from those who have dreamed and dared to take chances and to do things that others said weren't worth it.

    Mel, your world view seems to be one of holding pure profit alone as your only motivator and desired goal. That's fine as I'm sure it has served you well, there are however other people out there who besides seeking profit have a desire to better humanity and have a postitive impact on the world.

    James Cameron's and the Google team and others involved in this project are free-thinking adventurers and often time philanthropists. Cameron has personally financed dozens of trips for pure adventure and to prove it can be done. Knowing all the back-history, it's a little hard to believe he's putting this together to avoid paying some taxes on his accoutants say so. Besides that, it looks like they are assembling a pretty serious team:

    "Even more impressive is the company's list of employees.

    According to a press release, the company was co-founded by Eric Anderson and Peter H. Diamandis, both bigwigs in the world of commercial space exploration. Anderson co-founded Space Adventures, a company that boasts it is the only one taking private citizens to the great beyond. Diamandis founded the X PRIZE Foundation, best known for awarding its $10 million prize to the first nongovernmental group who managed to launch a reusable spacecraft twice in two weeks back in 2004.

    Former NASA Mars Rover and Lander Flight Director Chris Lewicki is listed as the group's president and chief engineer while retired astronaut Tom Jones is listed as one of the company's advisors."
    http://www.wmctv.com/story/17652791/...from-asteroids

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    How am I not surprised you have cynical, negative comments on this.

    As far as the additional supply of precious metals tanking prices, that would depend if the market was manipulated and loaded with speculators or not as oil is.

    Thank God there are many people who don't share your narrow, pessimistic and short-term "only do it if it's profitable right now" view. If not, we would not have had any of the great inventions and improvements to mankind that have come from those who have dreamed and dared to take chances and to do things that others said weren't worth it.

    Mel, your world view seems to be one of holding pure profit alone as your only motivator and desired goal. That's fine as I'm sure it has served you well, there are however other people out there who besides seeking profit have a desire to better humanity and have a postitive impact on the world.

    James Cameron's and the Google team and others involved in this project are free-thinking adventurers and often time philanthropists. Cameron has personally financed dozens of trips for pure adventure and to prove it can be done. Knowing all the back-history, it's a little hard to believe he's putting this together to avoid paying some taxes on his accoutants say so. Besides that, it looks like they are assembling a pretty serious team:

    "Even more impressive is the company's list of employees.

    According to a press release, the company was co-founded by Eric Anderson and Peter H. Diamandis, both bigwigs in the world of commercial space exploration. Anderson co-founded Space Adventures, a company that boasts it is the only one taking private citizens to the great beyond. Diamandis founded the X PRIZE Foundation, best known for awarding its $10 million prize to the first nongovernmental group who managed to launch a reusable spacecraft twice in two weeks back in 2004.

    Former NASA Mars Rover and Lander Flight Director Chris Lewicki is listed as the group's president and chief engineer while retired astronaut Tom Jones is listed as one of the company's advisors."

    Oh fucking whine, whine, whine. Quit crying long enough to do the god damn math.

    It does cost $10,000 per pound to lift anything into a stable orbit. With "Disposable" rockets.

    If you bring back an asteroid from past Mars a 56 million miles away. You can crash all the markets on the planet. Hell a nickel iron asteroid would contain enough nickel to supply every industry on the planet for decades and there are few earth nickel mines.

    Asteroids are loaded with metals, if you can get one back, then slice it up and get it safely down the gravity well you going to flood any market with so much material the price has to come down.

    All the iron mines on the planet can't produce in a year what a one kilometer asteroid can yield.

    Supply / Demand.

    However first you have to go past Mars. Mars and Earth only come closest at 56 MILLION kilometers and a one way trip of a YEAR AND A HALF. Find an Asteroid you like and strap engines and a guidance package to it so it can be brought back whole to Earth. Probably the Moon. An industrial accident like dropping a one kilometer iron nickel asteroid would kill billions and start an ice age. Spend a few billion to make a habitat, spend a few billion to rotate miners every sixty days. Spend a few billion to loft Water and food.

    It can be done but it needs the GDP of the PLANET for some years to do it, let alone getting everyone to cooperate.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Google would be better off building the space elevator in Ecuador then trying an orbital mine and smelter.

    Even fusion is more feasible with current tech.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Oh fucking whine, whine, whine. Quit crying long enough to do the god damn math.

    It does cost $10,000 per pound to lift anything into a stable orbit. With "Disposable" rockets.

    If you bring back an asteroid from past Mars a 56 million miles away. You can crash all the markets on the planet. Hell a nickel iron asteroid would contain enough nickel to supply every industry on the planet for decades and there are few earth nickel mines.

    Asteroids are loaded with metals, if you can get one back, then slice it up and get it safely down the gravity well you going to flood any market with so much material the price has to come down.

    All the iron mines on the planet can't produce in a year what a one kilometer asteroid can yield.

    Supply / Demand.

    However first you have to go past Mars. Mars and Earth only come closest at 56 MILLION kilometers and a one way trip of a YEAR AND A HALF. Find an Asteroid you like and strap engines and a guidance package to it so it can be brought back whole to Earth. Probably the Moon. An industrial accident like dropping a one kilometer iron nickel asteroid would kill billions and start an ice age. Spend a few billion to make a habitat, spend a few billion to rotate miners every sixty days. Spend a few billion to loft Water and food.

    It can be done but it needs the GDP of the PLANET for some years to do it, let alone getting everyone to cooperate.
    1st off, your math is from TODAY- technology is increasing incrementaly and there is no telling what the math will be in even a few short years.

    2nd, I'll put my faith behind what a couple of self-made billionaires and Nasa experts say over a poster on a strip-club forum.

    3rd, you don't have to bring the whole asteroid back, you can mine it on-site and only bring back the processed materials. That is the option they are considering.

    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Google would be better off building the space elevator in Ecuador then trying an orbital mine and smelter.

    Even fusion is more feasible with current tech.
    Well, why don't you take some of your vast fortune and assemble your own Nasa team and give that a shot.
    Last edited by jimboe7373; 04-22-2012 at 06:51 PM.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    WHAT price stability ??? By what must undoubtedly be 'sheer coincidence' the 2012 = 65 Trillion /2002 =10 Trillion => 6.5 x expansion of global money supply corresponds almost exactly to the 2012 ~$1650 / 2002 = ~$280 => 5.9 x increase in the price of gold !!! And, by another 'sheer coincidence', the 2012 = ~$104 / 2002 = ~$18 => 5.9 x increase in the price of oil !!!

    A cynic would point out the strong probability that the 6.5 x increase in global paper money supply over the past decade actually consists of 100 x ( 6.5 / 5.9 ) - 100 or 10% REAL growth, with the balance being currency debasement / price inflation.
    Again, you have been thoroughly brainwashed by zerobrains, schiff, mish and the ilk.

    http://bpp.mit.edu/

    How many millions of dollars would it have taken idiot Ron Paul to send his video message to thousands of his cult within minutes (from production to distribution) in 1913?
    How much does it cost now?

    It's so easy to fool idiots into buying gold

    But, the world has run out of idiots....

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    1st off, your math is from TODAY- technology is increasing incrementaly and there is no telling what the math will be in even a few short years.
    To get just into orbit you have to go with what is tested, built, and safe. Today.
    If a slew of NASA disasters hasn’t clued you in. A rocket is a large unstable bomb. Once it is lit you can’t change your mind about it.
    Technologically, we have been moving incrementally forward since Goddard and Von Braun.
    We can conceive of the idea, the tech and the know how are still considerably far off. Rockets are not the answer, much as I like them.
    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    2nd, I'll put my faith behind what a couple of self-made billionaires and Nasa experts say over a poster on a strip-club forum.
    Your choice. Collectively, they don’t have the funds to build and maintain the orbital infrastructure required to START the mission. Their PR team really knows how to reel them in though.
    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    3rd, you don't have to bring the whole asteroid back, you can mine it on-site and only bring back the precious metals themselves. That is the option they are considering.
    Time is against them. Doesn’t matter if you are in orbit, on the 600 plus day trip out, the 600 plus day trip back your consuming supplies that cannot be made except at great cost. Supplies that must be carried a loft at $10,000 per pound.
    You can purify water to drink, but if you split it into hydrogen and oxygen for fuel and breathing gas you can’t have it back.
    One meal = One Pound = $10,000 dollars. $30,000 dollars a day per person.
    30,000
    1,200 ×
    --------------------------
    36,000,000 for one person to eat for one mission just traveling. Add in the time spent mining the rock and it goes up.
    With bone loss , muscle tissue loss, and radiation issues your crew will not be able to go EVA mining in an avalanche of kilometers wide rocks, when they get there.
    Cutting it up has to happen in lunar orbit with a transit time of days or a week.
    The physical toll means you likely can’t use a crew for a second mission.


    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    Well, why don't you take some of your vast fortune and assemble your own Nasa team and give that a shot.
    Or why don’t you waggle your hard on at JC and convince him that the Space Elevator is the only way to move items up and down in gravity well that won’t bankrupt the planet.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post

    Whatever science fiction writers may dream up, the fact remains that it costs $10,000 per pound to lift ANYTHING into earth orbit. That translates into a cost of $10,000 per day just to 'feed' these future asteroid mine technicians ... which is high even by government convention 'food' budget standards !!! Granted that some clever engineering might reduce that by a factor of 2 or perhaps even three in the future. Even so, terrestrial precious metals mining operations aren't significantly profitable now ( outside near zero safety / environmental regulations China / Africa etc. at any rate ), let alone tacking on that sort of additional cost factor.
    It costs a lot less than $10,000 per pound to launch payloads into orbit. The Russian Proton Rocket can do it for $4,300 per kilo, which is about $2,000 per pound.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_e..._.28rockets.29

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Thank God there are many people who don't share your narrow, pessimistic and short-term "only do it if it's profitable right now" view. If not, we would not have had any of the great inventions and improvements to mankind that have come from those who have dreamed and dared to take chances and to do things that others said weren't worth it.

    Mel, your world view seems to be one of holding pure profit alone as your only motivator and desired goal

    Actually my supposedly 'short term' view was shared by America's supposedly greatest inventor ... Thomas Edison ... who never 'invented' anything that didn' have a willing market ready and waiting !!! Of course, there are a few voices out there who claim that THEY were the actual inventors of a new technology ( i.e. incandescent light bulb, motion pictures ) which Edison 'improved' ( a.k.a. made cost effective, repackaged and mass marketed ). Those actual inventors died broke ! Same situation for Marconi's supposed invention of radio ... which the US patent office finally conceded was invented by Tesla 30 years after Marconi became a multimillionaire by repackaging and mass marketing Tesla's tuned circuits ( at which point Tesla was also broke and nearing death ). This didn't change much for the inventor of Television Philo Farnsworth, either - after RCA challenged his patents and cashed in by ( should be familiar by now ) trimming costs, repackaging, and mass marketing.


    To emphasize the point, everybody knows Steve Jobs, but who was Ted Hoff ?
    Last edited by Melonie; 04-23-2012 at 03:20 AM.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Actually my supposedly 'short term' view was shared by America's supposedly greatest inventor ... Thomas Edison ... who never 'invented' anything that didn' have a willing market ready and waiting !!!
    Edison tried and failed with thousands of inventions. Are you saying there isn't a market for precious metals and cheap sustainable energy etc?.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    To get just into orbit you have to go with what is tested, built, and safe. Today.
    If a slew of NASA disasters hasn’t clued you in. A rocket is a large unstable bomb. Once it is lit you can’t change your mind about it.
    Technologically, we have been moving incrementally forward since Goddard and Von Braun.
    We can conceive of the idea, the tech and the know how are still considerably far off. Rockets are not the answer, much as I like them.

    Your choice. Collectively, they don’t have the funds to build and maintain the orbital infrastructure required to START the mission. Their PR team really knows how to reel them in though.

    Time is against them. Doesn’t matter if you are in orbit, on the 600 plus day trip out, the 600 plus day trip back your consuming supplies that cannot be made except at great cost. Supplies that must be carried a loft at $10,000 per pound.
    You can purify water to drink, but if you split it into hydrogen and oxygen for fuel and breathing gas you can’t have it back.
    One meal = One Pound = $10,000 dollars. $30,000 dollars a day per person.
    30,000
    1,200 ×
    --------------------------
    36,000,000 for one person to eat for one mission just traveling. Add in the time spent mining the rock and it goes up.
    With bone loss , muscle tissue loss, and radiation issues your crew will not be able to go EVA mining in an avalanche of kilometers wide rocks, when they get there.
    Cutting it up has to happen in lunar orbit with a transit time of days or a week.
    The physical toll means you likely can’t use a crew for a second mission.



    Or why don’t you waggle your hard on at JC and convince him that the Space Elevator is the only way to move items up and down in gravity well that won’t bankrupt the planet.
    Dude, not sure why you are so hostile. Your analysis is too far off and dated for me to waste any more time commenting on. In closing (as this will be my last post) I don't have to "waggle my hard on" at anyone, I'll just sit back and watch the intelligent successful billionaires with a history of getting things done and their NASA and Space expert associates give it their best shot. Even if they fail, a tremendous amount of info will be learned for future attempts and $Billions in economic activity from private sources will have stimulated the economy.

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