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Thread: when will Gold plummet to $300?

  1. #26
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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    ^^^ I'm fine with that ... PROVIDING that US taxpayers taking future losses on guaranteed loans, or US taxpayers being subjected to higher taxes to make up for the multiple millions of dollars worth of taxes that Cameron and his uber-rich co-investors won't have to pay on their income from 'conventional' sources thanks to new tax credits generated by this new 'space mining' venture, are NOT part of the deal. I'll be mercilessly blunt. With major taxpayer subsidy hogs / major tax credit generators wind power and solar power now being exposed as the 'failures' they have always been in terms of economic fundamentals, a NEW mechanism of collecting gov't subsidies and generating tax credits to reduce other taxes owed by uber-rich investors is badly needed ! With the 'demise' of NASA's space operations, this 'space mining' boondoggle would gain a lot of emotionally based public support !


    Are you saying there isn't a market for precious metals and cheap sustainable energy etc?.
    There isn't a market for cheap energy in the US at least ... because the US gov't is systematically regulating it into oblivion i.e. coal. Well I have to qualify that, since the US has now become a significant exporter of cheap coal to eastern europe / asia / south america - where economic reality still trumps political correctness.

    As to cheap sustainable energy, there is no such thing ... at least in the absence of a massive US taxpayer subsidy on several levels. Brazil has cheap sustainable energy in the form of sugar cane ethanol, but the US has imposed quotas banning importation ( in favor of much more expensive US corn ethanol ).

    As to precious metals, worldwide demand is increasing in direct proportion to the loss of 'purchasing power' of fiat currencies. As to the US 'market' for gold disappearing, FDR certainly established a precedent that this is very possible !
    Last edited by Melonie; 04-23-2012 at 03:31 PM.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    Dude, not sure why you are so hostile.
    Your being replied to in the manner in which you post. Don't like it? Stop being a complete ass to every other Member of this forum. Can you do that?

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    I'm still waiting for my flying car!

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    It costs a lot less than $10,000 per pound to launch payloads into orbit. The Russian Proton Rocket can do it for $4,300 per kilo, which is about $2,000 per pound.
    Two things. The Russians are using the "Walmart Model" subsidize the losses by other means until the competition is financially ruined, then raise your prices.

    Second. It is not cost free to get it to Baikonur. Factor that in to the $2000 per pound.

    There is another factor here. Payload. If (and I am not going to going doing a cost/benefit analysis of Proton vs Saturn V vs Ares II) is half or worse a third then you pick up additional costs with more launches.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Your being replied to in the manner in which you post. Don't like it? Stop being a complete ass to every other Member of this forum. Can you do that?
    Every other member of this forum????, the only members on this forum that I interact with at all are the 2 or 3 people that constantly try to shove their ideology down our throats.

    You tell me to stop being a complete ass, please look up any of my posts and show me one instance where I've spoken to someone as rudely as this:

    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Oh fucking whine, whine, whine. Quit crying long enough to do the god damn math.
    Last edited by jimboe7373; 04-23-2012 at 06:55 PM.

  6. #31
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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    I was completely ready to drop this thread and move on, but the rudeness of your previous post compelled me to continue.


    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Two things. The Russians are using the "Walmart Model" subsidize the losses by other means until the competition is financially ruined, then raise your prices.
    This is purely your conjecture and doesn't make any sense, there are hundreds of private enterprises getting into the rocket and space industries. This will be one of the most competitive fields for the next couple hundred years.

    Second. It is not cost free to get it to Baikonur. Factor that in to the $2000 per pound.
    There is the potential for hundreds and hundreds of $billions in profit- $2,000 per pound and shipping costs to Baikonur aren't really that big of a deal.


    To get just into orbit you have to go with what is tested, built, and safe. Today.
    They won't be embarking on the expedition today, it may be as many as 5-10 years before it's ready. The technology we have TODAY will be antiquated in as little as 2 years. There are technologies likely in development and pre-release that may make this venture much more plausible that you are not aware of but that billionaires and NASA executives may very well know about.

    36,000,000 for one person to eat for one mission just traveling. Add in the time spent mining the rock and it goes up.
    With bone loss , muscle tissue loss, and radiation issues your crew will not be able to go EVA mining in an avalanche of kilometers wide rocks, when they get there.
    Have you ever heard of robotics?

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by xanfiles1 View Post

    zerobrains, ron paul, schiff, austrian economics, and their ilk don't get it.

    There is no meaningful inflation (despite idiot John Williams or idiot Ron Paul has to say)
    http://bpp.mit.edu/


    Here is a pretty fair piece...... It doesn't really go into some of the other problems with CPI.... Such as the small weighting hearthcare gets.


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ad-checks.html



    And another piece dealing with how the govt is constantly changing definitions.

    http://harpers.org/archive/2008/05/0082023
    The country has been looted.

  8. #33
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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    I was completely ready to drop this thread and move on, but the rudeness of your previous post compelled me to continue.
    I answered this one already. So you seem really disinclined to read.
    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Your being replied to in the manner in which you post. Don't like it? Stop being a complete ass to every other Member of this forum. Can you do that?
    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Your being replied to in the manner in which you post. Don't like it? Stop being a complete ass to every other Member of this forum. Can you do that?
    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    This is purely your conjecture and doesn't make any sense, there are hundreds of private enterprises getting into the rocket and space industries. This will be one of the most competitive fields for the next couple hundred years.
    Hence, the “Walmart model” Russian is in the game. Russia is not a start up like Space X and unlike a Corporation, Russia is a nation State. The can operate their space program as a total loss, subsidizing the program to build rockets and other space vehicles by selling Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, and military hardware. Private enterprises can’t compete against that, and there is no one they can complain too.
    All these little start ups can dance around and spend billions in investment dollars promising an experimental rocket in a few years. Russia just takes an order and gives you a completion date.
    Hence, a few thousand dollars a pound.
    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    There is the potential for hundreds and hundreds of $billions in profit- $2,000 per pound and shipping costs to Baikonur aren't really that big of a deal.
    There always a potential for billions in profit, says so in the prospectus.
    The shipping costs to Baikonur are a big deal. The costs are all up front. Not half down or anything else. Commit 100% and take a chance for point on the back end.
    However, bring back 80 million tons of nickel iron and the cost of iron drops to pennies. Same with gold, platinum, and iridium material speculated to be in abundance in the asteroid belt.
    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    They won't be embarking on the expedition today, it may be as many as 5-10 years before it's ready. The technology we have TODAY will be antiquated in as little as 2 years. There are technologies likely in development and pre-release that may make this venture much more plausible that you are not aware of but that billionaires and NASA executives may very well know about.
    I have no doubt humans will do this. We have to. You and I won’t be alive to see it. There is a slew of steps between iron on the ground and that asteroid.


    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    Have you ever heard of robotics?
    The hard ware, probably the soft ware not for decades.
    Spirit and Opportunity are semi-autonomous robots. Those are the Mars rovers so famous right now. Do you get that at the closest Mars is 56 MILLION miles away at the closest orbit. Do you understand that the Earth is in motion around the sun? That the asteroid will be in motion around the sun? Do you understand that that asteroid is going to be 180 to 360 million miles away when the Asteroid and the Earth both happen to be on the same side of the sun?
    This is like trying to read the name on a baseball that is rolling in an avalanche crashing down Mt Everest, with binoculars while standing on Mt. Killmanjaro, from reflections on a chain of mirrors.
    There is so much terrestrial tech that is as yet inadequate to a sustained orbital habitat and smelting operation. Like fusion and a smelter that works in zero G.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    ^^^
    "Over 1,500 asteroids are as easy to reach as the Moon. When considering the return trip, that number increases to over 4,000 since an asteroid’s gravity well is quite weak when compared to that of the Moon. Several dozen asteroids require less energy than is required to put a television satellite into geostationary orbit."

    "While it is likely that some of Planetary Resources’ spacecraft will fly a lengthy trajectory to visit a distant asteroid, in certain cases, especially during our earliest missions, it can be helpful to target asteroids when they travel through the Earth-Moon system. Most asteroids do not travel that close to the Earth, but some do."

    "Given the rapid rate of discovery of near-Earth asteroids – and the increasing power and capability of asteroid surveys – it is quite likely that many of the best “neighborhood fly-by” candidates have yet to be discovered."

    "A 500 meter diameter water rich asteroid has $50B (billion) worth of water deliverable to a deep space fuel depot, even if one makes the conservative assumptions that: 1) only 1% of the water is extracted; 2) half of each load of water is consumed en route for propulsion; and 3) the success of commercial spaceflight causes the cost of Earth-originating launches to drop by a factor of 100. Of course, less conservative assumptions would raise the value of the asteroid to many trillions, or even tens of trillions, of dollars."

    "The economics of an asteroid mining operation can also be enhanced by the use of in-situ propellant. Mining spacecraft can travel across interplanetary space using water reclaimed from the very asteroid it is mining, leading to a high “mass payback ratio” where a single ton of mining equipment can be used to obtain hundreds of tons of mined resources."

    http://nextbigfuture.com/2012/04/pla...eblogging.html

    "Jones, an adviser to a bold venture that aims to extract gold, platinum and rocket fuel from the barren space rocks, said many near-Earth asteroids have a loose rocky surface held together only weakly by gravity.
    "It shouldn't be too hard to invent a machine like a snow blower to pick up material," explained Jones, a veteran of four space shuttle missions."

    "The proposal is to use commercially built robotic ships to squeeze rocket fuel and valuable minerals out of the rocks that routinely whiz by Earth."
    http://news.yahoo.com/asteroids-may-...--finance.html
    Last edited by jimboe7373; 04-24-2012 at 06:31 PM.

  10. #35
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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Two things. The Russians are using the "Walmart Model" subsidize the losses by other means until the competition is financially ruined, then raise your prices.

    Second. It is not cost free to get it to Baikonur. Factor that in to the $2000 per pound.

    There is another factor here. Payload. If (and I am not going to going doing a cost/benefit analysis of Proton vs Saturn V vs Ares II) is half or worse a third then you pick up additional costs with more launches.
    The estimate for the new SpaceX rocket is $1,000 per pound.

    http://www.wired.com/autopia/2011/04...-falcon-heavy/

    Musk, the CEO of Space Exploration Technologies, says the first launch will happen soon after the Falcon Heavy arrives at the company’s launch complex at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, late next year.

    He estimates launching the 227-foot-tall rocket at $80 to $125 million, less than one-third the cost of the Delta IV and roughly one-tenth that of the space shuttle. If SpaceX stays within that cost, the Falcon Heavy will deliver payloads at the $1,000-per-pound benchmark long sought by the space industry.

  11. #36
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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    I answered this one already. So you seem really disinclined to read.
    I'm inclined to read just fine- you suggested I acted as an ass to every other member, there is currently close to 80,000 members- every other one is 40,000. Can you please name 4 members that I've acted as an ass to?

    Hence, the “Walmart model” Russian is in the game. Russia is not a start up like Space X and unlike a Corporation, Russia is a nation State. The can operate their space program as a total loss, subsidizing the program to build rockets and other space vehicles by selling Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, and military hardware. Private enterprises can’t compete against that, and there is no one they can complain too.
    All these little start ups can dance around and spend billions in investment dollars promising an experimental rocket in a few years. Russia just takes an order and gives you a completion date.
    Hence, a few thousand dollars a pound.
    Once again, huge fault in your reasoning. Even if they are successful in subsidizing costs so much that they destroy the competition, if they start to raise the price, competition will again re-open. In addition, technology will be expanding on multiple fronts in all facets of propulsion and delivery to space, a monopoly will be nearly impossible to maintain.

    The shipping costs to Baikonur are a big deal. The costs are all up front. Not half down or anything else. Commit 100% and take a chance for point on the back end.
    The upfront shipping costs to Baikonur are a big deal to you- they are not a big deal to an assembled group with many $Billions in net worth. Also, as per Eagle's last post, they may be shipping to California instead of Russia.

    However, bring back 80 million tons of nickel iron and the cost of iron drops to pennies. Same with gold, platinum, and iridium material speculated to be in abundance in the asteroid belt.
    How much they bring back does not make the price drop to pennies, how much they release at one time determines the price- they control how much they release.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    I'm inclined to read just fine- you suggested I acted as an ass to every other member, there is currently close to 80,000 members- every other one is 40,000. Can you please name 4 members that I've acted as an ass to?
    Ah the old “Dramatis Personae Defense”, likely conceived with the birth of Darpanet. “I can’t have been an asshole to everyone. There is 80,000 Members. “
    Same old internet, different day.
    Now maybe saying “every other Member” is a regional expression, instead of “all the other Members”. However you still just don’t like reading. Was it high school sports? Some juvenile “only fags like books” thing you have not out grown yet?
    The List. ArmySGT., Melonie, Eric Stoner, Bem401.
    Are you detecting a pattern here?
    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    Once again, huge fault in your reasoning. Even if they are successful in subsidizing costs so much that they destroy the competition, if they start to raise the price, competition will again re-open. In addition, technology will be expanding on multiple fronts in all facets of propulsion and delivery to space, a monopoly will be nearly impossible to maintain.
    Heh, you didn’t catch the fault in your own reasoning did you. Russia raises prices, Billionaires invest in startups, Russia drops prices, Billionaires lose their investment when startup files bankrupty, Russia raises price, Start ups form, Investors refuse to invest, startups fail.
    The only reason Space X is viable currently is that NASA is not being funded. Well besides NASA is a ridiculously bloated Government entity too. If we can divest ourselves of Wars, foreign aid, and much of our entitlements system then the USA can have a robust 1960 JFK space program.
    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    The upfront shipping costs to Baikonur are a big deal to you- they are not a big deal to an assembled group with many $Billions in net worth. Also, as per Eagle's last post, they may be shipping to California instead of Russia.
    Nope. There a big deal to investors and Billions is not enough. The ground and space infrastructure alone is completely inadequate to the task.
    A zero G smelter is integral to asteroid mining and no one can trot one out yet.
    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    How much they bring back does not make the price drop to pennies, how much they release at one time determines the price- they control how much they release.
    Of course it does. Steel, Iron, Nickel, Platinum, these are all traded as commodities. You know kind of like the cost of oil today. If it is there and can be brought down, investors will pull their money from those commodities. Oh and a few million terrestrial jobs smelting iron dirt side go away over night too. Not just Detroit, but in China and India too. Not good to put a few million military age males out of work overnight. Wars start that way.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Heh, you didn’t catch the fault in your own reasoning did you. Russia raises prices, Billionaires invest in startups, Russia drops prices, Billionaires lose their investment when startup files bankrupty, Russia raises price, Start ups form, Investors refuse to invest, startups fail.
    If SpaceX meets their goal of payload cost of $1,000 per pound, how will Russia's rockets bankrupt them when they're charging $2,000 per pound?

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    The estimate for the new SpaceX rocket is $1,000 per pound.

    http://www.wired.com/autopia/2011/04...-falcon-heavy/

    Musk, the CEO of Space Exploration Technologies, says the first launch will happen soon after the Falcon Heavy arrives at the company’s launch complex at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, late next year.

    He estimates launching the 227-foot-tall rocket at $80 to $125 million, less than one-third the cost of the Delta IV and roughly one-tenth that of the space shuttle. If SpaceX stays within that cost, the Falcon Heavy will deliver payloads at the $1,000-per-pound benchmark long sought by the space industry.
    Gold / Platinum at their current rate is $25000 / pound. So, Transportation cost will be minimal. If there are Space 'Gas' Stations, expect Transportation costs to plummet.

    If Robots are mining, expect an assembly of Robots sent to sapce and the cost of mining will dramatically plummet too.

    If Platinum drops to $30-$40 / pound, Silver becomes absolutely worthless (think < $1).

    Anyway, what this means is that there is a ceiling on Gold Price (with that ceiling continuously falling) and the very idea of Gold as an investment will sound ridiculous.

    Non-Revenue Internet Companies, Tulip Bulbs and Gold --- Three of the biggest bubbles in the history of mankind

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Ah the old “Dramatis Personae Defense”, likely conceived with the birth of Darpanet. “I can’t have been an asshole to everyone. There is 80,000 Members. “
    Same old internet, different day.
    Now maybe saying “every other Member” is a regional expression, instead of “all the other Members”. However you still just don’t like reading. Was it high school sports? Some juvenile “only fags like books” thing you have not out grown yet?
    The List. ArmySGT., Melonie, Eric Stoner, Bem401.
    Are you detecting a pattern here?
    No my friend, not detecting a pattern, 4 out of 80,000 is nowhere near a pattern. Not sure why disagreeing with someone is considered making an ass of yourself, and you still haven't answered my request to show me one instance where any of my posts where more rude or more of an "ass" statement then:
    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Oh fucking whine, whine, whine. Quit crying long enough to do the god damn math.
    Heh, you didn’t catch the fault in your own reasoning did you. Russia raises prices, Billionaires invest in startups, Russia drops prices, Billionaires lose their investment when startup files bankrupty, Russia raises price, Start ups form, Investors refuse to invest, startups fail.
    No, I didn't miss that, I considered it but realized it was to simplistic a concept to comment on. With a rapidly evolving technology sector such as this it will be impossible for one group to control the market no matter how much they are able to subsidize it. As time goes by thousands and thousands of companies and enterprises will be getting into the asteroid mining field, there will be too much flow for one entity to handle launches even if they could consistently have the most up to date technology and lowest price (which they won't be able to). Besides this, strategic alliances will be formed that will supersede price as a component and many of these companies will be creating their own launch facilities and capabilities.


    Nope. There a big deal to investors and Billions is not enough. The ground and space infrastructure alone is completely inadequate to the task.
    A zero G smelter is integral to asteroid mining and no one can trot one out yet.
    As stated in the articles, they are not looking to do full on mining and processing right away, they are looking to send the equivalent of a robotic snow-blower to near earth asteroids (that are easier to get to than the moon) and scrapping up loose surface material and bringing it back. All in all, not too difficult, expensive or technologically challenging. It's already been done on Mars on a small scale.

    Of course it does. Steel, Iron, Nickel, Platinum, these are all traded as commodities. You know kind of like the cost of oil today.
    Yes, but if course you are aware of how OPEC manages to exert tremendous control over the price of oil by controlling how much oil they pump and release? not too difficult for this company to control how many minerals they bring back or make available to the market. The people involved with this project aren't simpletons.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    If SpaceX meets their goal of payload cost of $1,000 per pound, how will Russia's rockets bankrupt them when they're charging $2,000 per pound?
    Sheer numbers. Russia can launch ten for every one Space X.

    The investors need to get their money wrapped up in a satellite or consumables up into space. Not wait 2 years for Space X to build a rocket.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Sheer numbers. Russia can launch ten for every one Space X.

    The investors need to get their money wrapped up in a satellite or consumables up into space. Not wait 2 years for Space X to build a rocket.
    Lot's of projects underway to cut costs and increase efficiency that have nothing to do with Russia

    "Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne and Dynetics have announced a resurrected F-1 engine as their entry into the advanced booster engineering demonstration and/or risk reduction (ABEDRR) programme, a precursor to selecting advanced boosters for the Space Launch System (SLS).
    Development could cost half that of a clean-sheet booster design, says John Vilja, vice president of strategy at Rocketdyne. "Now that we have a design that has actually been proven, it's easier to just copy that."
    http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...oposal-370920/

    "Blue Origin, the private space company put together by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos more than 12 years ago, has developed a reputation for keeping its spacecraft and rocket designs secretive, but its business model has recently been unveiled. Basically, the company will rely on reusable rockets and spacecraft. This approach is believed to be the most cost-effective, since Blue Origin will be able to conduct at least 10 flights using each vehicle." http://news.softpedia.com/news/Reusa...n-266627.shtml

    Countdown begins for testing of Microsoft tycoon Paul Allen's plane that will launch rockets into space.
    It will take off from the Mojave Air and Space Port to carry a rocket high into the atmosphere and drop it - avoiding the need for a launch pad and the expense of additional rocket fuel.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...ing-plane.html


    The idea that the Russians can dominate this entire industry aka Walmart's price out the competition then raise prices theory is impossible. That policy didn't even work for Walmart:

    "When it comes to currying favor with America's value shoppers, Amazon is eating Walmart's lunch. Walmart's value score has declined markedly in the past two years, down from highs in the 50s to its current score of 22 on a scale of 100 to -100."
    http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/04/...value-shopper/

    "Wal-Mart Stores Suffering Huge Sales Slump
    The retailer is losing ground to dollar store competitors."
    http://www.ktla.com/news/landing/ktl...,2660893.story

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    No my friend, not detecting a pattern, 4 out of 80,000 is nowhere near a pattern. Not sure why disagreeing with someone is considered making an ass of yourself, and you still haven't answered my request to show me one instance where any of my posts where more rude or more of an "ass" statement then:
    Not going to play the deflection game. Play this PUA crap on anyone else.
    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    No, I didn't miss that, I considered it but realized it was to simplistic a concept to comment on. With a rapidly evolving technology sector such as this it will be impossible for one group to control the market no matter how much they are able to subsidize it. As time goes by thousands and thousands of companies and enterprises will be getting into the asteroid mining field, there will be too much flow for one entity to handle launches even if they could consistently have the most up to date technology and lowest price (which they won't be able to). Besides this, strategic alliances will be formed that will supersede price as a component and many of these companies will be creating their own launch facilities and capabilities.
    Tomorrow tech doesn’t launch satellites today and investors are a cautious lot. Sure there are billionaire investors looking at this now, however there is 10 times their number watching and waiting to see which startup succeeds and which burns. Somebody will just to prevent the Russians from monopolizing cheap civilian launch vehicles, however the U.S. and the ESA are firmly in the game with their own State run agencies with China coming on quick. Any startup is going to struggle probably for years until it has enough successful launches to satisfy investors willing to trust them with a 100 million dollar satellite.
    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    As stated in the articles, they are not looking to do full on mining and processing right away, they are looking to send the equivalent of a robotic snow-blower to near earth asteroids (that are easier to get to than the moon) and scrapping up loose surface material and bringing it back. All in all, not too difficult, expensive or technologically challenging. It's already been done on Mars on a small scale.
    Right now they aren’t actually even looking for that. There are looking for creative aerospace engineers to make the boasts fly.
    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    Yes, but if course you are aware of how OPEC manages to exert tremendous control over the price of oil by controlling how much oil they pump and release? not too difficult for this company to control how many minerals they bring back or make available to the market. The people involved with this project aren't simpletons.
    If you were watching the news then you noted when Iran starting blustering and Oil was creeping to $140 a barrel that the U.S., Great Britain, and France announced plans to release oil from their strategic reserves. This would have flooded the market with crude oil. The price climbing stopped and run away speculation halted. The mere threaten of market saturation can bring the price down significantly.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    Lot's of projects underway to cut costs and increase efficiency that have nothing to do with Russia
    "Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne and Dynetics have announced a resurrected F-1 engine as their entry into the advanced booster engineering demonstration and/or risk reduction (ABEDRR) programme, a precursor to selecting advanced boosters for the Space Launch System (SLS).
    Development could cost half that of a clean-sheet booster design, says John Vilja, vice president of strategy at Rocketdyne. "Now that we have a design that has actually been proven, it's easier to just copy that."

    "Blue Origin, the private space company put together by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos more than 12 years ago, has developed a reputation for keeping its spacecraft and rocket designs secretive, but its business model has recently been unveiled. Basically, the company will rely on reusable rockets and spacecraft. This approach is believed to be the most cost-effective, since Blue Origin will be able to conduct at least 10 flights using each vehicle."
    Everybody is trotting out something new or updated. Again it is promises and lies until the booster lights and the payload is in orbit. P&W is a for profit company. The cannot operate at a loss. Now a Nation like the U.S. or Great Britain could purchase from P&W (essentially subsidizing them) and run a space program at a loss. Since a Nation will be taking (literally) revenue from other sources.
    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    Countdown begins for testing of Microsoft tycoon Paul Allen's plane that will launch rockets into space.
    It will take off from the Mojave Air and Space Port to carry a rocket high into the atmosphere and drop it - avoiding the need for a launch pad and the expense of additional rocket fuel.
    Now where close to the necessary payload capacity. Then your back to multiple launches for the same goal.
    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    The idea that the Russians can dominate this entire industry aka Walmart's price out the competition then raise prices theory is impossible. That policy didn't even work for Walmart:

    "When it comes to currying favor with America's value shoppers, Amazon is eating Walmart's lunch. Walmart's value score has declined markedly in the past two years, down from highs in the 50s to its current score of 22 on a scale of 100 to -100."


    "Wal-Mart Stores Suffering Huge Sales Slump
    The retailer is losing ground to dollar store competitors."
    Not a good comparison. WalMart and Amazon do not operate on the same business model.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Not a good comparison. WalMart and Amazon do not operate on the same business model.
    The only "business model" that matters to both Walmart and Amazon is how much profit you make from consumer purchases. The point was and is that in the modern era with rapid technological innovation and extreme competition, it is almost impossible for one company or entity to knock out the competition, control the market and raise prices. Walmart was successful in creating a retail atmosphere where low price is the only thing that matters, and they were able to control the market for a while and knock out a lot of their brick and mortar competition, but before they ever got to the stage where they could raise prices, technology, innovation and competition stepped in and now they are getting beaten at their own game.

    Now where close to the necessary payload capacity. Then your back to multiple launches for the same goal.
    As they stated, one of their early stages is simply putting snow-blower type machines on near-earth asteroids and having them pick up loose surface materials. It wouldn't be difficult to send rovers to take samples and locate areas with high value mineral content and then send up several small machines of this type to gather the material and consolidate it. You don't need to mine tons of tons of rare earth minerals to make it profitable. These smaller units could be sent with a propulsion system similar to the one mentioned. Besides that, the technology is not going to stop or stand still, each year there will be more efficient and less costly ways to get larger and larger payloads to and from space.
    Last edited by jimboe7373; 04-27-2012 at 09:40 PM.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Not going to play the deflection game. Play this PUA crap on anyone else.
    We could have avoided this whole exchange in the first place if you would have just posted thoughts pertinent to the thread instead of your rude comments.

    Tomorrow tech doesn’t launch satellites today and investors are a cautious lot.
    Some investors are cautious, many are not- besides this there are hundreds of millions of investors worldwide. If Bernie Madoff could get many $Billions from word of mouth, I'm pretty sure some of the most successful people in the world will be able to attract a fair amount of capital. Between them the principals probably have thousands of friends worth many $Billions of dollars.

    Sure there are billionaire investors looking at this now, however there is 10 times their number watching and waiting to see which startup succeeds and which burns. Somebody will just to prevent the Russians from monopolizing cheap civilian launch vehicles, however the U.S. and the ESA are firmly in the game with their own State run agencies with China coming on quick. Any startup is going to struggle probably for years until it has enough successful launches to satisfy investors willing to trust them with a 100 million dollar satellite.
    What is your point?, I'm not even sure what you are arguing about anymore. My point is simply that this is a viable technology, this group has a decent shot at being able to pull it off and the Russians will not be able to knock out all the rocket launch competition and then raise prices.

    Right now they aren’t actually even looking for that. There are looking for creative aerospace engineers to make the boasts fly.
    Actually, the technology to do that already exists as evidenced by the Mars rovers, they are currently developing machines that can do the same thing on a larger scale. It's not new technology and there are firms that are quite advanced, like this one: http://www.ferret.com.au/c/Ferret-ww...ustry-n1828678

    If you were watching the news then you noted when Iran starting blustering and Oil was creeping to $140 a barrel that the U.S., Great Britain, and France announced plans to release oil from their strategic reserves. This would have flooded the market with crude oil. The price climbing stopped and run away speculation halted. The mere threaten of market saturation can bring the price down significantly.
    Totally irrelevant to the discussion at hand. The mining companies will be seeking to keep the prices from going too low, not too high and they will have pretty much complete control over market saturation of their product.

    Another interesting point: "That's because Amun is a goldmine -- well, not gold so much. But it does contain a cool $8 trillion worth of platinum, an essential precious metal used in everything from jewelry to fuel cells to computers ....You couldn't offload all those metals on the world market at once, for fear of crashing their prices. But the company would still own that much in equity, which would allow them to borrow against it. They would be that wealthy, to all intents and purposes. That's just how capitalism works."http://news.yahoo.com/20-trillion-ro...235028470.html
    Last edited by jimboe7373; 04-27-2012 at 11:03 PM.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    The only "business model" that matters to both Walmart and Amazon is how much profit you make from consumer purchases. The point was and is that in the modern era with rapid technological innovation and extreme competition, it is almost impossible for one company or entity to knock out the competition, control the market and raise prices. Walmart was successful in creating a retail atmosphere where low price is the only thing that matters, and they were able to control the market for a while and knock out a lot of their brick and mortar competition, but before they ever got to the stage where they could raise prices, technology, innovation and competition stepped in and now they are getting beaten at their own game.
    That these are both for profit businesses yes, the similarities rapidly diminish from there. Walmart needs there physical stores and Amazon does not. Walmart has a crushing overhead in the costs to build, staff, and maintain those stores. This makes Walmart the largest employer in the world. Dominance has its price. Amazon only maintains warehouses and like Walmart their own trucking fleet when applicable.
    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    As they stated, one of their early stages is simply putting snow-blower type machines on near-earth asteroids and having them pick up loose surface materials. It wouldn't be difficult to send rovers to take samples and locate areas with high value mineral content and then send up several small machines of this type to gather the material and consolidate it. You don't need to mine tons of tons of rare earth minerals to make it profitable. These smaller units could be sent with a propulsion system similar to the one mentioned. Besides that, the technology is not going to stop or stand still, each year there will be more efficient and less costly ways to get larger and larger payloads to and from space.
    I agree this is possible. I do think it will happen. However I think it will be a hundred or two hundred years from now. Right, now their calling for Engineers to make those thoughts work if they can.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    That these are both for profit businesses yes, the similarities rapidly diminish from there. Walmart needs there physical stores and Amazon does not. Walmart has a crushing overhead in the costs to build, staff, and maintain those stores. This makes Walmart the largest employer in the world. Dominance has its price. Amazon only maintains warehouses and like Walmart their own trucking fleet when applicable.
    The discussion was never about the similarities of the two businesses, it was about the ability of a company to drive all the competition out of business and then raise prices in an age where rapidly evolving technology and a vigorous competitive environment exist.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    The discussion was never about the similarities of the two businesses, it was about the ability of a company to drive all the competition out of business and then raise prices in an age where rapidly evolving technology and a vigorous competitive environment exist.
    However you point out that Walmart is getting killed in retail by Amazon. A Comparison of two different retail models as you point for competition being robust and competitive in the space lifter industry. Off the mark.

    Russia has everything in place (infrastructure much like the Walmart model) and there is not a comparable "internet just in time deliverey" model for putting hardware in space. Even Virgin Galactic has to have facilities on the ground to make what is essentially a taxi service work.

    There is talk of creating competition, but just that, talk.

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    Default Re: when will Gold plummet to $300?

    Quote Originally Posted by ArmySGT. View Post
    Russia has everything in place (infrastructure much like the Walmart model) and there is not a comparable "internet just in time deliverey" model for putting hardware in space.
    Even with the Russians low-balling price, competitors are working diligently and technology is rapidly evolving. This program is only one of a half dozen or more that are already designed, financed and into the construction phase, also as stated in the article, there is no problem with launch facility options: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2011/...launches-year/

    Russia has nowhere near a monopoly on launches currently and with their track record of 4 failed launches out of 31, even without all the competition on the near horizon it's unlikely they would ever be able to have a monopoly, much less raise prices.http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012...cket-launches/

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