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Thread: weekend commentary - virtually all US economic indicators disappoint

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    Default weekend commentary - virtually all US economic indicators disappoint

    beginning with

    (snip)"NFP Huge Miss At 69,000 On Expectations Of 150,000; Unemployment Rate 8.2%

    And we have NEW QE liftoff, just as we predicted yesterday: "That the ADP would miss today's expectations of 150K is no surprise: after all as we have been explaining for a while, the only way the Fed will have a green light to proceed with NEW QE if it so chooses at the June 19-20 meeting, is if the economic data suddenly turn horrendous. Which means tomorrow's NFP data is make or break: in fact, as far as markets are concerned, the worse the better - should a -1,000,000 NFP print come in, stocks will soar." It may take a little while for the realization to soak in. The actual number of +69,000 was a massive miss to both the expectation of 150,000, and the whisper number 100,000, and a drop from the massively revised April 77K, which was 115K before. And that is with a 204,000 addition from Birth Death. Just a total disaster for Obama who has decided to sacrifice the perception of an improving economy just so he can give Bernanke a green light to goose the stock market.



    From the report, which was, simply said, ghastly.

    Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May (+69,000), following a similar change in April (+77,000). In comparison, the average monthly gain was 226,000 in the first quarter of the year. In May, employment rose in health care, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade, while construction lost jobs. (See table B-1.)

    Health care employment continued to increase in May (+33,000). Within the industry, employment in ambulatory health care services, which includes offices of physicians and outpatient care centers, rose by 23,000 over the month. Over the year, health care employment has risen by 340,000.

    Transportation and warehousing added 36,000 jobs over the month. Employment gains in transit and ground passenger transportation (+20,000) and in couriers and messengers (+5,000) followed job losses in those industries in April. Employment in both industries has shown little net change over the year. In May, truck transportation added 7,000 jobs.

    Employment in wholesale trade rose by 16,000 over the month. Since reaching an employment low in May 2010, this industry has added 184,000 jobs.

    Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in May (+12,000) following a similar change in April (+9,000). Job gains averaged 41,000 per month in the first quarter of this year. In May, employment rose in fabricated metal products (+6,000) and in primary metals (+4,000). Since its most recent low in January 2010, manufacturing employment has increased by 495,000.

    Construction employment declined by 28,000 in May, with job losses occurring in specialty trade contractors (-18,000) and in heavy and civil engineering construction (-11,000). Since reaching a low in January 2011, employment in construction has shown little change on net.

    Employment in professional and business services was essentially unchanged in May. Since the most recent low point in September 2009, employment in this industry has grown by 1.4 million. In May, job losses in accounting and bookkeeping services (-14,000) and in services to buildings and dwellings (-14,000) were offset by small gains elsewhere in the industry.

    Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, retail trade, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government, changed little in May.

    The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in May. The manufacturing workweek declined by 0.3 hour to 40.5 hours, and factory overtime declined by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)


    Remember when we were warning about seasonal adjustments? Well they work both ways. May is the first month of the year in which seasonal adjustment subtract from the unadjusted number. Sure enough: 718,000 jobs were statistically removed from the unadjusted Establishment Survey number, which actually increased by 789,000 in May.(snip)



    from

    (snip)"ISM Miss Add To Economic Collapse Woes: 5 ISM Sub-Indices In Contraction Territory

    Just in case someone did not get the earlier BLS-doctored message, the final two economic indicators of the day just printed and were... drumroll... misses. Because remember: not only the 1%ers but the 99ers have to be begging Bernanke to print. And so he will: ISM Manufacturing prints at 53.5, down from 54.8, and expectations of 53.8. Prices Paid plunge by 13.5, but the kicker: 5 out of the ISM's 10 sub indices are now in contraction territory.. And the cherry on top: Construction Spending unchanged from an upward revised 0.3 to 0.3, obviously, missing expectations of a jump to 0.4. Looking forward to the Tim Geithner Op-Ed: "Welcome to the recession."

    ISM Prices Paid Index - huge miss and biggest drop in 7 months.

    The ISM Table: note the sub 50 prints. [ a 50 value is 'neutral ' - sic ]



    Oddly enough, prices paid plunges and yet...

    Commodities Up in Price
    Aluminum; Copper; Electrical Components; Guar; Natural Gas; Plastic Components* (3); Plastic Resins* (4); and Transportation Costs* (2).

    And the always handy [ cherry-picked - sic ] respondents:

    •"Business has been trending moderately higher since the beginning of the year. [We] anticipate 5 percent to 7 percent growth for the year." (Chemical Products)
    •"Sales were stronger than expected; customers are waiting until the last minute to place orders." (Machinery)
    •"We are having the best year in sales volume and profit since mid-2008." (Fabricated Metal Products)
    •"Business seems to be holding steady." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
    •"We had modest growth across most of our businesses, with stable raw materials [prices] and improved schedules and efficiency in our operations." (Textile Mills)
    •"Business is lower than forecast for Q2 2012." (Computer & Electronic Products)
    •"We are seeing overall steady improvements, month over month and year over year." (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)
    •"Business is steady." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
    •"While not quite as busy as last month, production is steady and year over year still much better." (Transportation Equipment)
    •"Business continues to be up in general." (Furniture & Related Products)(snip)


    and finally ... from

    (snip)"The Trend Isn't Your Friend.

    There was another way in which the May report reversed recent trends. Every month, when it reports the figures, BLS goes back and revises the figures it had reported for the prior two months. For much of this recovery, the trend has been for BLS to discover jobs that hadn't been originally reported and revise the prior months' totals higher. But not this month. In May, BLS revised the gains for the two previous months lower. March's figure, originally reported as a 120,000 gain, had been revised upward to 154,000 in April, was revised back down to 143,000. The April figure, originally reported as a gain of 115,000, was revised to a gain of only 77,000."(snip)
    Last edited by Melonie; 06-01-2012 at 08:00 AM.

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    Default Re: weekend commentary - virtually all US economic indicators disappoint

    with another very 'telling' statistic buried within the same BLS data ... from


    (snip)Back in December 2010 Zero Hedge was the first to point out what is easily the most troubling characteristic within America's evaporating labor force: its gradual transition to a part-time worker society. We elaborated on this back in February when we noted that the quality assessment of US jobs indicates that this most disturbing trend is accelerating. Finally, yesterday, the BLS' latest jobs report confirmed that our concerns have been valid all along: as of May, part-time jobs just as disclosed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics hit an all time high, over 28 million! These are people who traditionally have zero job benefits, including healthcare and retirement, and which according to the BLS "work less than 35 hours per week." In other words, as little as one hour per week of "work" is enough to classify one a part-time worker. More disturbing: the increase in part-time jobs in May compared to April: 618,000, or the fifth highest on record. It gets better: when added with the 508,000 increase in part-time jobs in April, this is the largest two month increase in part time-jobs in history. Which means of course that full time jobs in May must have declined: sure enough, at a -266,000 drop in full time jobs, the quality composition of the NFP report was just abysmal and makes any reported "increase" in those employed into a sad farce.



    The chart above hardly needs further clarification: since the December 2007 start of the depression, full time jobs have declined by 6.9 million while part-time jobs have increased by 3.1 million.(snip)


    The arguable take-aways from the greatly increased number of 'part-time' US jobs are as follows ...

    - businesses have little confidence that the US economy will experience a sustained recovery ( thus reluctance to commit to hiring additional full time workers )

    - businesses know all too well that gov't mandated ( full time ) employee benefit costs are already high and due to rise even higher. Thus some businesses are reducing their labor costs by hiring two 20 hour part-time employees versus one 40 hour full time employee ( or the gain of 508k part-time jobs but loss of 266k full time jobs in May was pure coincidence ).

    - the loss of 266k full time jobs in May also represents a loss of employee benefits, a loss of 'creditworthiness' for the former full time workers etc. that the part time jobs do not replace.
    Last edited by Melonie; 06-04-2012 at 03:14 AM.

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