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Thread: Latest Unemployment Numbers as Expected - but 105k US Unemployed see benefits expire

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    Default Latest Unemployment Numbers as Expected - but 105k US Unemployed see benefits expire

    from

    (snip)"While it is a number which nobody will care about today, especially if it is better than expected, initial claims printed at 377K on expectations of 378K, the first beat of expectations in 5 weeks. Of course, the claims number next week will be revised to over 380K. Why? Because, as now happens every single week, last week's initial claims number was revised higher from 383K to 389K. As a reminder, last week this number was expected to print at 370K. So only a 19K miss when all is said and done. But at least the mainstream media has its bullish for general consumption headline: "Initial Claims drop by 12,000" even as market participants realize this is still QE-promoting. Continuing claims printed at 3,293K, missing expectations of 3,250K, and down from an upward, of course, revised 3,259K.

    But the most disturbing observation is that in one week alone, a whopping 104,600 people hit the 99-week cliff, and stopped collecting extended unemployment benefits, the most since December 2011, as those on EUCs dropped by -45,808 while those on Extended benefits dropped by a astounding -58,829. As a reminder, Zero Hedge first noted that shortly 700,000 people will no longer be collecting any unemployment benefits. Here is to hoping those off the dole, are at least collecting disability in the USSA as otherwise these are tens of billions in lost purchasing power."(snip)
    Last edited by Melonie; 06-08-2012 at 01:22 AM.

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    Default Re: Latest Unemployment Numbers as Expected - but 105k US Unemployed see benefits exp

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    from http://www.zerohedge.com/news/initia...efits?tw_p=twt

    Here is to hoping those off the dole, are at least collecting disability in the USSA as otherwise these are tens of billions in lost purchasing power."(snip)
    This is the only way unemployment numbers are changing in most states. There are alot of people who are going to be SOL. The forclosure rate will go up. This huge drop off in purchasing power will deepen the already unrecognized recession.

    But this last line about disability is really silly. It implies people that unemployed are just looking for free money.
    Nature knows no indecencies; man invents them. ~ Mark Twain


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    Default Re: Latest Unemployment Numbers as Expected - but 105k US Unemployed see benefits exp

    ^^^ actually, recent increases in disability insurance claims ( and awards ) does more than imply that unemployed are just looking for free money ... they're getting it !!!

    from the Insurance Journal ...


    (snip)"The 47-year-old from Michigan is among the 8.7 million American workers on the U.S. disability rolls, an important part of the social safety net. Since the recession began in 2007, she has been joined by a record number of people seeking disability benefits, raising questions about the program’s solvency and casting a pall over future prospects for U.S. economic growth.

    Applicants soared to a record high of 2.94 million in 2010, and have held above 18 per 1,000 workers in the past three years – a far higher rate than in previous recessions.

    “There are serious concerns that this increase in disability benefits is a type of ‘hidden unemployment,’” said Richard Burkhauser, a professor of economics at Cornell University.

    Even though only 35 percent of applicants are awarded disability, those receiving disability benefits now account for 5.6 percent of the working age population, up from about 4.5 percent in 2007. At this rate of growth, Burkhauser estimates that total would reach over 7 percent by 2018.


    The problem is those on disability rarely return to work, reducing the overall size of the labor force and weakening the U.S. economy’s growth prospects. Rising gross domestic product (GDP) depends upon a growing workforce and rising productivity.

    Since the recession began, the share of Americans actively looking for work, known as the labor participation rate, has fallen to 63.6 percent from 66 percent in 2007.

    Some people give up looking for work temporarily, but the size of the decline has perplexed economists and disability is clearly a factor."(snip)


    (snip)"“If you look at the people on disability, around 40 percent are in their 60s. But younger people in their 30s and in their 40s have grown a lot. That is part of what has been driving the program,” said Mark Duggan, an economist at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

    Duggan and other economists say the major change in the growth rate stems from a series of reforms in the mid-1980s, which changed the focus of screening from medical criteria to working ability. Almost half of disability claims are for problems such as back pain and anxiety, which are more difficult to verify. This has led to thousands of new appeals filed every month before the U.S. administrative courts.

    Soltes also said there are very few incentives for getting off the disability rolls, which pay an average cash benefit of $1,100 per month. While that is less than in most advanced economies, those in the United States are also provided Medicare health insurance.

    “They are not encouraged to go back to work. I have gone to multiple meetings on a program called ‘Ticket to Work’ and there were only five people who showed up,” she said.

    If people do return to work, they could lose benefits such as health insurance, which further discourages some from looking, said Richard Johnson, Director of the Program on Retirement Policy at The Urban Institute in Washington."(snip)


    From an analytical standpoint, there is no logical explanation for the rising percentage of 'disabled' Americans, and particularly so for the fast rising percentage of 'disabled' Americans in their 30's and 40's, OTHER than a quest for 'free' money !!! After all, the increasingly strict OSHA regulations imposed on US employers should have made the American workplace FAR safer than it was in past years / decades, yet the percentage of 'disabled' US workers has been rising recently at an unprecedented rate. Additionally, a huge number of former US manufacturing / mining / chemical industry etc. jobs that had been traditionally responsible for contributing to worker disabilities over past years / decades have now been 'exported' to Asia. Thus from a purely logical standpoint, US disability rolls should be shrinking instead of growing !!!

    If you combine the $1,100 per month cash benefit, then add the equivalent cash value of medicaid insurance, food stamps, low income rent subsidies, low income utility bill subsidies, 'free' cell phones etc, it would arguably require a $12-15 an hour 'taxable wage' job to achieve a standard of living equal to that provided for 'free' to 'disabled' Americans. This probably has more to do with todays increasing US disability rolls than anything else.
    Last edited by Melonie; 06-10-2012 at 01:32 PM.

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    Default Re: Latest Unemployment Numbers as Expected - but 105k US Unemployed see benefits exp

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ actually, recent increases in disability insurance claims ( and awards ) does more than imply that unemployed are just looking for free money ... they're getting it !!!

    from the Insurance Journal ... http://www.insurancejournal.com/news.../07/246490.htm


    .
    First of all the numbers this article uses are totally skewed. For the real numbers http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/ben...age201112.html
    This shows the break down the average disablity check by age and sex. Which is a totally different picture then what is painted in your article.

    If you look at the growth chart of reciepants http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/icpGraph.html you will see it has been on a steady increase for a long time. So unless they are going to show exact numbers the idea that a one percent increase is shocking is just silly. Not to mention the fact there is NOTHING that shows the direct link in the increase and unemployment.
    Nature knows no indecencies; man invents them. ~ Mark Twain


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    Default Re: Latest Unemployment Numbers as Expected - but 105k US Unemployed see benefits exp

    This shows the break down the average disablity check by age and sex. Which is a totally different picture then what is painted in your article.
    Actually the raw OACT number do show exactly what my author claimed. Yes the payout by age increases every year up to 65. But the total number of recipients age 60-65 is outnumbered by the total number of recipients age 59 and below. What your single year OACT numbers do not show is the growth rate by age group. My author claims that recent growth of disability benefit claims by Americans in their 30's and 40's has been significant. The OACT numbers do not contradict that claim.

    the idea that a one percent increase is shocking is just silly
    1 percent of the total US workforce equals well over a million people !!! And in terms of disability benefit growth rate, it is clear even from the OACT growth chart you posted that > 10% growth in the number of disability benefit recipients occurred over the course of the last three years. This is a significantly higher growth rate than at any time since the OACT statistics begin in 1970, which can also be clearly seen from the chart at your link . This is precisely what my author claimed.

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    Default Re: Latest Unemployment Numbers as Expected - but 105k US Unemployed see benefits exp

    damn, some people. I think families should live together if theyre not able to make it on their own. This could just dramatically with living situations

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    Default Re: Latest Unemployment Numbers as Expected - but 105k US Unemployed see benefits exp

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Actually the raw OACT number do show exactly what my author claimed. Yes the payout by age increases every year up to 65. But the total number of recipients age 60-65 is outnumbered by the total number of recipients age 59 and below. What your single year OACT numbers do not show is the growth rate by age group. My author claims that recent growth of disability benefit claims by Americans in their 30's and 40's has been significant. The OACT numbers do not contradict that claim..
    That is because people 60-65 have qualified for social security. When one is of age to recieve social security it is easier Those who would actually need disablity coverage are those that wouldnt qualify for social security.


    My issue with these articles is the implication the unemployed are just looking for free money. They dont look into the real reasons why these things are happening. For example..... Older employees who end up layed off have a VERY hard time finding another job. Some may use disablity with illnesses they have had for a long time to bridge the gap between lay off and social security.

    Or people who have worked with real disablities for a long time. Employers are now more particular now in this market. They dont want to deal with disablities. The disabled are the first fired.

    These types of articles just implies that the poor is looking for a teet of free money more then the rich. The implication that the rich work harder then then the poor. It is class warfare articles. It is bs while huge corporations beg for bail outs.

    Sorry im not buying the bs.
    Nature knows no indecencies; man invents them. ~ Mark Twain


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    Default Re: Latest Unemployment Numbers as Expected - but 105k US Unemployed see benefits exp

    ... everyone is entitled to their own opinion, even if the facts appear to contradict that opinion

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