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Thread: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

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    Default Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    for what it's worth ... from


    (snip)"in just twelve short days, our political hyper-focus is all going to dry up and go away, leaving behind a cold economic reality in its wake that we, and the newly elected leaders will have to contend with.

    "I think the election results do matter but I don't think we're going to get a whole lot of clarity on policy matters," says Jeff Cleveland, senior economist at Payden & Rygel in the attached video. "That leaves a lot of uncertainty, even after the election."

    In fact, as he sees it, the real problem that is hurting our economy now, as it has been for months, is the fiscal cliff. Contrary to the belief held by many people, the impending combination of automated budget cuts and tax increases is not ''some sort of imagined future event," Cleveland says.

    "We're already seeing big corporations sitting on their hands with regards to hiring and capex," he says.

    The good news in all of this is that he is not calling for another recession next year, even though it may feel like it at times.

    "There are a lot of things that are showing signs of life and not pointing to a recession," he says. "We're not seeing a recession in initial claims for unemployment insurance. We're actually seeing a little bit of a recovery here in things like housing and autos."

    And who knows, maybe when we get our first look at Q3 GDP this Friday, which economists are expecting to rise to 1.9% from 1.3% in Q2, it might spur some excitement. Still, year-end fiscal cliff negotiations are apt to be full of drama.

    "Corporations want to wait and see what the rules will be in 2013 and beyond," Cleveland says, "then they can make some decisions on hiring and business spending."(snip)


    Just a few additional comments ...

    The 'fiscal cliff' referred to in the article refers to the increases in SSI = self-employment taxes, increases in federal income taxes, changes in Alternative Minimum Tax trigger levels, new health care related 'taxes' etc. which are already written in US law to take effect on January 1st. A post-election 'lame duck' congressional session is expected to make some changes to prevent some of these tax increases from actually happening. Obviously, stagnant incomes being subject to rising tax rates leaves less 'discretionary' dollars in people's pockets to spend on such non-essential things as lap dances and paid webcam streams.

    Part 2 of the 'fiscal cliff' refers to the requirements of existing law to drastically cut military / defense spending and significantly cut some social welfare spending after January 1st. While it is doubtful that social welfare beneficiaries provide much income for dancers and camgirls, for a fact defense contractor workers and members of the US military do. If allowed to proceed under existing law, hundreds of thousands of Americans are likely to find themselves in the unemployment line. The same 'lame duck' congressional session is expected to make some changes in this area as well

    Given the number of 'new' Americans entering the work force every year as a result of graduating from high school, college etc, an economic growth rate of somewhere around 2.5% is arguably required for the US economy to 'break even'. While an 'improvement' from the present 1.3% growth rate to 1.9% is 'better than a kick in the head', that level of growth arguably means that the US economy will still be losing ground, but losing ground more slowly.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    Forget getting "ready for another year of slow economic growth". Instead of reading "gloom and doom" predictions (that often never come to pass) be proactive and control your own economic well being. Instead of reading about what MAY go wrong or what Might happen bad in the future, read magazines like Entrepreneur and Success to see people that ARE and WILL BE doing great, making tons of money and having a positive impact.

    Even if those negative predictions on the economy come true, they only need negatively affect those who become passive and don't do anything but complain and feel helpless. YOUR ability to be economically successful has very little to do with the overall economy. There will be way more than enough money for YOU available for the rest of your life regardless how bad the overall economy gets. As all you have to do is be proactive and put yourself in a position where you can receive it.

    Here are 50 businesses that can be started for under $500: http://www.internettradebureau.com/a...es-to-a14.html, there are hundreds and hundreds of others. Don't have $500 or need more than that for a business that costs more to start? Use social capital sites like kickstarter.com to get the funds you need.
    Last edited by jimboe7373; 10-26-2012 at 12:49 PM. Reason: added link to businesses under $500

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    Forget getting "ready for another year of slow economic growth". Instead of reading "gloom and doom" predictions (that often never come to pass) be proactive and control your own economic well being. Instead of reading about what MAY go wrong or what Might happen bad in the future, read magazines like Entrepreneur and Success to see people that ARE and WILL BE doing great, making tons of money and having a positive impact.

    Even if those negative predictions on the economy come true, they only need negatively affect those who become passive and don't do anything but complain and feel helpless. YOUR ability to be economically successful has very little to do with the overall economy. There will be way more than enough money for YOU available for the rest of your life regardless how bad the overall economy gets. As all you have to do is be proactive and put yourself in a position where you can receive it.

    Here are 50 businesses that can be started for under $500, there are hundreds and hundreds of others. Don't have $500 or need more than that for a business that costs more to start? Use social capital sites like kickstarter.com to get the funds you need.
    Pinch me.
    Somebody.
    Please !

    Are you serious ? Do you seriously expect the average person to become a successful entrepreneur just like that ? How ? By becoming Amway reps ?

    Let's assume you are serious and posted what you did in good faith. You left something out - the greatly increased taxes on small businesses as part of the "Fiscal Cliff".
    And the potential financiers we're supposed to meet on sites like kickstarter.com are going to have less money to invest.

    Again assuming you are serious, you are claiming that just about anybody can become part of the " 1 % ". Does that include all the high school drop outs who are single mothers ?

    Are you remotely familiar with the FAILURE rate of small business ? Most small business ventures in this country fail. Within one year. Just how many better mousetraps do you think get invented every year ?
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 11-07-2012 at 08:38 AM.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Ame

    Pinch me.
    Somebody.
    Please !

    Are you serious ? Do you seriously expect the average person to become a successful entrepreneur just like that ? How ? By becoming Amway reps ?

    Let's assume you are serious and posted what you did in good faith. You left something out - the greatly increased taxes on small businesses as part of the "Fiscal Cliff".
    And the potential financiers we're supposed to meet on sites like kickstarter.com are going to have less money to invest.

    Again assuming you are serious, you are claiming that just about anybody can become part of the " 1 % ". Does that include all the high school drop outs who are single mothers ?

    Are you remotely familiar with the FAILURE rate of small business ? Most small business ventures in this country fail. Within one year. Just how many better mousetraps do you think get invented every year ?
    You're being extremely silly Eric. How do you possibly infer I am suggesting people can open a business for under $500 and be part of the 1%???? that's stupid. What I am saying is that ANYONE can instead of wasting time reading and focusing about how bad things ARE SUPPOSED to be can for a very small investment have a legitimate shot at becoming independent of many of those factors- no, they will not become part of the 1% but they will have a much better shot at improving their lives and remove a lot of the powerlessness that comes with being tossed around by economic and political factors outside your control.

    America's highest productivity came at times with taxes much higher than the ones we will be experiencing. Even with the increased taxes on small business, deductions and other incentives will make small business income much less taxable than earned income. There are hundreds of small businesses that require almost no experience and are simple to do with extremely small investment. There are agencies like S.C.O.R.E. that provide unlimited free business advice doled out by former executives.

    Yes Eric, including high school drop-outs and single-moms. There are millions of both categories who have started successful businesses in the past. It's never been easier or cheaper to do so than it is today. Do you really think it that improbablefor a single-mom to start a business like this:

    GIFT BASKETS. This is one of the hottest product-oriented home businesses around. You don't have to make the wicker baskets yourself (check your Yellow Pages for a supplier), but it is up to your taste and imagination to fill them with tempting goodies. Create baskets for all occasions--birthdays, anniversaries, retirements, births, Mother's and Father's Day, Valentine's Day--or no occasion at all; "I Miss You" gift basket. Find suppliers who will sell the items in quantity for the best price. Put a variety of food items in the basket along with small gifts appropriate to the occasion: satin hearts for Valentine's Day; a rattle, baby birth (gift baskets don't always have to contain food) champagne for anniversaries, etc. Resources: Success With Gift Baskets
    .

    Your post is quite ironic coming from someone who's tagline is: "The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt"
    Last edited by jimboe7373; 10-26-2012 at 01:17 PM.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    ^^^ while I appreciate what you are saying about the power of optimism, there are also some financial realities which can't be ignored.

    The potential for future financial success for someone pursuing your 'gift basket' example will, by simple arithmetic, be far lower next year. The reasons for this are equally simple ...

    - pay rates are not rising
    - employment is not rising ( at least in terms of total hours worked )
    - increasing / new taxes are shrinking take-home paychecks
    - increasing local / property taxes are raising rent prices
    - price levels for 'necessary' items such as food and energy are rising

    Virtually every new small business venture relies on the 'discretionary' spending capability of consumers. With taxes and 'necessary' expenditures taking precedence, this leaves fewer 'discretionary' dollars available to support those small business ventures. Or put another way, most people are NOT going to spend money on a 'gift basket' unless their rent, utility, grocery and other 'necessary' bills are paid first.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ while I appreciate what you are saying about the power of optimism, there are also some financial realities which can't be ignored.

    The potential for future financial success for someone pursuing your 'gift basket' example will, by simple arithmetic, be far lower next year. The reasons for this are equally simple ...

    - pay rates are not rising
    - employment is not rising ( at least in terms of total hours worked )
    - increasing / new taxes are shrinking take-home paychecks
    - increasing local / property taxes are raising rent prices
    - price levels for 'necessary' items such as food and energy are rising

    Virtually every new small business venture relies on the 'discretionary' spending capability of consumers. With taxes and 'necessary' expenditures taking precedence, this leaves fewer 'discretionary' dollars available to support those small business ventures. Or put another way, most people are NOT going to spend money on a 'gift basket' unless their rent, utility, grocery and other 'necessary' bills are paid first.
    I am not talking at all about the power of optimism, I am talking about the cause and effect relationship of being proactive and how if done correctly positive results can take place.

    Your post is flawed in several areas because you are using macro negative data exclusively in your analysis of everything. You also analyze from a fixed-point with the assumption that nothing is going to change or that all change will be negative. Making predictions in this manner is wildly inaccurate because both of those items omit the micro activities that go into making up the macro in the long-run and nothing stays fixed-point for long. As how this pertains to the Gift Basket business:

    The person who opens the business doesn't care and many times won't even be aware of the aggregate employment numbers, tax issues and other items that you obsess over. They will simply think, I have put together a great basket for $15 and I would like to sell if for $30. They will first sell the baskets to friends and family and friends of friends and family- most of those people will not have a big problem to pay $30 for a basket if it is good quality. Next will come Ebay and possibly Amazon for sales, once again, not a big deal for people to pay $30. In fact if the economy is still in slow growth and people are worried about money- it may even help the Gift Basket business as people who before would have bought a $75 bottle of scotch may now opt for the $30 gift basket.

    Further, who says it must only be sold to individuals?, I know someone who had contracts with large companies to automatically send out a gift-basket to each of their employees on their birthday- they had sent out over 100,000 gift-baskets a year in the this manner. I am currently working on a deal to make a deal with short-term apartment rentals in my area to pay me $20 for a gift basket that will include many of the items an arriving clients needs but may not have. It's only a $20 expense per stay which they can easily incorporate into the price, but the customer satisfaction quotient is super high, so they are very interested in it. I am also considering creating a lower cost version to make available to hotels in the area and having them buy one for each guest that arrives. Other companies and organizations could be sold on sending a gift basket to each of their clients on their anniversary date of doing business, there are hundreds of other possibilities, not to even mention the holidays.

    So with all that said, all of your numbers don't mean anything to the single operator of a Gift Basket start up who only needs 300 people across the entire country to buy her Gift Baskets each month. One corporate account alone could do all that and more. It would be quite easy over time and with sounds business practices (provided for free by S.C.O.R.E.) that this basket company could be doing thousands of baskets a month. As mentioned the slow economy may be of assistance. With all the free trade agreements in place and the ease and low-cost of shipping, these items could be marketed world-wide. A package with US goods that are hard to find in whichever country would likely be extremely popular. There are 40,000 Americans living in my foreign city- I guarantee you this would be a huge success.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    ^^^ I'll concede that your example of a single individual small business could work ... but in doing so other small businesses must be 'hurt'. No matter how it's spun, if pay rates are not rising and but taxes and prices for 'essentials' are rising, there are fewer discretionary dollars to be spent. So yes as you point out, it's possible that a particular consumer, being subjected to a smaller take-home paycheck and more expensive gasoline, groceries, rent etc. might opt to forego spending $75 on a bottle of top shelf scotch and buy a $30 gift basket instead. But it's also possible that said consumer would wind up buying a $30 bottle of not quite so top shelf scotch !!!

    Yes there is some potential for a single individual small business to 'tap into' new foreign markets ... to a degree. But just like your earlier example of the ( illegally operating ) lawn mower man, however, this stops working once legal business operation requirements can no longer be avoided i.e. customs, import duties, taxes on repatriated foreign profits etc. There is a REASON that US goods are often difficult to find in certain foreign markets !!!

    I'll also agree with you that using friends and family as an initial customer base can give the illusion of success for a single individual small business. This marketing strategy is extremely popular ... from cosmetic sales to adult 'toy' sales to sales of candles / kitchenware / a host of others. However, the family and friends customer base is limited, the products being sold typically do not fall under the category of a 'necessity', and going back to basics the amount of 'discretionary' money available for spending on such things is shrinking, even for friends and family members. Thus such small business endeavors typically run out of momentum once the family and friends customer base has been 'harvested' over the course of the first couple of months of operation, and attempts to broaden the customer base to include mere acquaintances or total strangers meet with much lower paid sales conversion rates. Arguably, the only party who actually benefits in the long term from businesses which employ this marketing strategy is the 'parent company' ... who is able to pocket the initial inventory / start-up costs paid by the would-be single individual small business ... and move on to the next single individual small business who will in turn 'harvest' sales to their own friends and family members and subsequently fail.
    Last edited by Melonie; 10-28-2012 at 02:50 AM.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    ^^^There will be hundreds of fields that will be growing and earning more money at the same time that other fields are shrinking and pay is going down. In addition, new entrepreneur is not going to be in a vacuum, they are going to be using all types of business services and also buying things for personal consumption. So the economy will be stimulated that way- actually this manner of economic stimulation is quite a bit more dynamic than the employee who will get taxed harder and spend less- so the overall trend of people becoming entrepreneurs may actually provide a good dose of stimulation to the market.

    Who says gasoline prices must raise, they are currently down, natural-gas is way down. If political, technological and other forces impact the fuel and healthcare industries the right way prices could come down exponentially. that would put a lot of money into peoples pockets to buy more stuff. It wouldn't be necessary, but it could happen and would certainly contribute to an upward growth dynamic.

    The "friends and family" type marketing companies you mention have of late become much more sophisticated in sustaining the individual operators ability to earn income well beyond the family and friends limitation. In addition advances in internet technology allows people to start up and operate businesses with cookie cutter formats and market to almost the whole world, delivery, instant secure payment and follow-up communications accomplished with almost no effort.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    There will be hundreds of fields that will be growing and earning more money at the same time that other fields are shrinking and pay is going down. In addition, new entrepreneur is not going to be in a vacuum, they are going to be using all types of business services and also buying things for personal consumption
    Again, the factor that is being overlooked is that ... somewhere behind it all ... there HAS to be a core business that generates real new wealth. Manufacturing - Oil / Gas / Coal - Agriculture - Mining - Cattle - Lumber etc. Without a core business that is capable of generating new real wealth, the 'service' based economy you describe degenerates into 'redistributing' existing wealth. And basic math dictates that the same amount of existing wealth being redistributed among a growing number of people equals less money for each person, on the average at least. At present, additional 'apparent' wealth is constantly being added to the total via gov't borrowing and money printing to make up for the shortfall in real new wealth creation. However, in reality this amounts to borrowing foreign wealth not creation of new domestic wealth ... and that borrowed foreign wealth becomes an increasingly heavy future burden by consuming a greater fraction of the 'service' economy's cycle of existing wealth redistribution.

    As to your contention that gasoline and natural gas price levels are down ... the obvious question is down compared to what ? Certainly they are not down as a percentage of average after-tax income levels. Granted that natural gas took a short lived dive down to $2 during the worst of the 2009 recession ... but it has now rebounded to the $4 level and is trending even higher as electric generation is forcibly shifted out of coal and into natural gas.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Again, the factor that is being overlooked is that ... somewhere behind it all ... there HAS to be a core business that generates real new wealth. Manufacturing - Oil / Gas / Coal - Agriculture - Mining - Cattle - Lumber etc. Without a core business that is capable of generating new real wealth, the 'service' based economy you describe degenerates into 'redistributing' existing wealth. And basic math dictates that the same amount of existing wealth being redistributed among a growing number of people equals less money for each person, on the average at least. At present, additional 'apparent' wealth is constantly being added to the total via gov't borrowing and money printing to make up for the shortfall in real new wealth creation. However, in reality this amounts to borrowing foreign wealth not creation of new domestic wealth ... and that borrowed foreign wealth becomes an increasingly heavy future burden by consuming a greater fraction of the 'service' economy's cycle of existing wealth redistribution.
    That hasn't been overlooked at all, droids and technological improvement will mine, process, deliver the raw materials you mentioned, in addition to possibly mining asteroids etc, further advances in efficiency and renewable energy etc, will make acquiring those items relatively effortless and cheap. New advances in agriculture and bio-tech will likewise make supplying all the food necessary easy and cheap. All of your scales, units of measure and existing paradigms will no longer be relevant. It will be like someone from 1920 using their current mail sorting techniques to manage e-mail.

    As to your contention that gasoline and natural gas price levels are down ... the obvious question is down compared to what ? Certainly they are not down as a percentage of average after-tax income levels. Granted that natural gas took a short lived dive down to $2 during the worst of the 2009 recession ... but it has now rebounded to the $4 level and is trending even higher as electric generation is forcibly shifted out of coal and into natural gas.
    Compared to the high- my premise is that higher prices are not a guarantee as you always seem to infer. As for natural gas, it has not hit the $4 level and is in fact retreating by a fair amount as of late:

    http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/natural-gas.aspx

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    droids and technological improvement will mine, process, deliver the raw materials you mentioned, in addition to possibly mining asteroids etc, further advances in efficiency and renewable energy etc, will make acquiring those items relatively effortless and cheap.
    in 10-20 years, maybe. Time will tell. But next year, no way. And next year was the topic of this thread. What IS going to happen next year are layoffs of hundreds of thousands of US military personnel and US defense industry related employees ( ex Lockheed ) as the result of gov't budget cuts ... additional layoffs by defense support industry employees ( ex Oshkosh ), etc. There will be very few alternate near term employment opportunities for these former employees. What is also extremely likely to happen next year is tax increases which will reduce take-home paychecks for the vast majority of American workers who still have jobs, leaving them all with less 'discretionary' income to spend on non-essential purchases.


    As for natural gas, it has not hit the $4 level and is in fact retreating by a fair amount as of late
    True of spot contracts as of last friday. But natgas futures prices for delivery next year ... which is what electrical generators and industries buy ... are over $4 one year out. And again next year was the topic of this thread. The upward 'gap' in natgas futures prices in the latter half of 2013 is the direct result of announced closures of coal fired power plants, whose generating capacity will have to be replaced by natgas fired power plants once the coal plants' 6-12 month ( or whatever ) official notice period runs out.
    Last edited by Melonie; 10-28-2012 at 01:26 PM.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    50 business you can start under $500..... Clowning. I'm SO starting a clowning business. That will surely get me into the 1%!
    xoxo ~ Sarah




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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    in 10-20 years, maybe. Time will tell. But next year, no way. And next year was the topic of this thread. What IS going to happen next year are layoffs of hundreds of thousands of US military personnel and US defense industry related employees ( ex Lockheed ) as the result of gov't budget cuts ... additional layoffs by defense support industry employees ( ex Oshkosh ), etc. There will be very few alternate near term employment opportunities for these former employees. What is also extremely likely to happen next year is tax increases which will reduce take-home paychecks for the vast majority of American workers who still have jobs, leaving them all with less 'discretionary' income to spend on non-essential purchases.
    You are the one who took it off topic of the title of the thread-to get it back on topic, there are very few people who couldn't start their own low-skill, low-cost business TODAY- or within a few weeks. Many thousands of people will start successful small businesses this year and many of them will be hiring.

    Some positive trends:
    "Credit Crunch Easing for Small Businesses"
    http://www.entrepreneur.com/blog/224...=25&cdn=224801

    Here are Teenagers that have started successful small businesses:
    http://www.legalzoom.com/business-ma...usiness-owners

    There are far too many variables for you to state in any certain terms what the results will be of any potential action, the law of unintended consequences reigns supreme. Because you are primarily negative in your outlook, you automatically assume that all of those defense people who will get laid off will not be able to find work and will just collect benefits at the public's expense. What you fail to realize and what is possible is that quite a few of these people will be motivated, ambitious and will start their own businesses and not only create employment for themselves, but for other people as well.

    Also, there is a very high probability that if Obama is elected and his healthcare platform is installed, that there will be an explosion in health related jobs. Expenses and labor disputes in China are on the increase and more and more companies are bringing back or seriously investigating bringing back their operations to the US. Despite your opposition for the government providing assistance to it, the renewable energy revolution is still going strong and providing a lot of jobs and consistently creating new ones.

    Futures on Natural Gas are up- while futures on oil are lower: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/mar...php3?market=CL , which confirms my point that you can not guarantee higher fuel prices in the future, as with everything else too many variables.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    in 10-20 years, maybe. Time will tell. But next year, no way. And next year was the topic of this thread. What IS going to happen next year are layoffs of hundreds of thousands of US military personnel and US defense industry related employees ( ex Lockheed ) as the result of gov't budget cuts ... additional layoffs by defense support industry employees ( ex Oshkosh ), etc.
    You're making stuff up again. There are no plans to layoff hundreds of thousands of US military personnel, even if Congress doesn't come to an agreement to prevent cuts to defense spending.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    Forget getting "ready for another year of slow economic growth". Instead of reading "gloom and doom" predictions (that often never come to pass) be proactive and control your own economic well being. Instead of reading about what MAY go wrong or what Might happen bad in the future, read magazines like Entrepreneur and Success to see people that ARE and WILL BE doing great, making tons of money and having a positive impact.

    Even if those negative predictions on the economy come true, they only need negatively affect those who become passive and don't do anything but complain and feel helpless. YOUR ability to be economically successful has very little to do with the overall economy. There will be way more than enough money for YOU available for the rest of your life regardless how bad the overall economy gets. As all you have to do is be proactive and put yourself in a position where you can receive it.

    Here are 50 businesses that can be started for under $500: http://www.internettradebureau.com/a...es-to-a14.html, there are hundreds and hundreds of others. Don't have $500 or need more than that for a business that costs more to start? Use social capital sites like kickstarter.com to get the funds you need.
    THANK YOU a million fucking times! I am SO TIRED of people not being proactive in their life because "Waaa waaa (baby cry) the economy is bad!" Seriously? How about those 3 latest iPads you just bought?

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  23. #16
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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    ^^^ feel free to consider anything not reported in mainstream media as being 'made up'. However, reality goes forward whether mainstream media chooses to report it or not ...


    (snip)Arlington, Va. — An economic impact analysis projects more than one million American jobs could be lost as a result of defense budget cuts if the deficit reduction select committee fails to reach agreement on alternative balanced budget solutions and total cuts to defense reach $1 trillion.

    Dr. Stephen S. Fuller, Dwight Schar Faculty Chair, University Professor and Director, Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University and Economic Modeling Specialists Inc. (EMSI) conducted the analysis on behalf of the Aerospace Industries Association. “Our analysis reveals bleak outcomes for both the defense industry and the economy as a whole if the budget sequestration trigger is pulled and $1 trillion is cut from defense,” said Dr. Fuller.

    “Dr. Fuller and EMSI’s study shows the dramatic and devastating impact these cuts would have, not only on our industry but on the economy at large,” said AIA President and CEO Marion C. Blakey. “Congress must find budget deficit solutions that don’t sacrifice the jobs of those who supply the American warfighter.” “We cannot add .6 percent to the current 9.1 percent rate of unemployment, it would devastate the economy and the defense industrial base and undermine the national security of our country,” she added.

    Commenting on the findings, Tom Buffenbarger, President of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers said “the spending cuts of the Budget Control Act enacted last summer place at risk the jobs of highly skilled, highly motivated workers.” “We can ill afford to idle these men and women and the machines they operate indefinitely,” Buffenbarger added.

    Dr. Fuller and EMSI concluded that under the scenario of a $1 trillion cut to defense spending, an option under consideration by the budget deficit “Super Committee,” the flow down effect from the aerospace and defense industry to its supply chain and communities is significant, particularly given two factors. The defense industry has a notably high rate of subcontracted work flow and systems with high component volumes, driving job loss directly to program partners and the supply chain."(snip)

    from

    According to this study, my 'hundreds of thousands' was a lowball estimate, compared to their 1 million figure for potential military and defense related job cuts.


    50 business you can start under $500..... Clowning. I'm SO starting a clowning business. That will surely get me into the 1%
    Unfortunately, for the vast majority of people who follow this line of thinking and invest the $500 with high hopes, it isn't a joke. The majority of these 50 businesses are totally reliant on the 'discretionary' spending dollars of other Americans, and those 'discretionary' dollars have been declining, and will continue to decline in 2013 ! However, I will point out that new 'service' oriented businesses which target the 1% of top earners have a high probability of success ... well, that has held true in the recent past but may not continue into the future if targeted 2013 tax increases reduce the 'discretionary' spending dollars of those top 1%.
    Last edited by Melonie; 10-29-2012 at 05:45 PM.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Unfortunately, for the vast majority of people who follow this line of thinking and invest the $500 with high hopes, it isn't a joke. The majority of these 50 businesses are totally reliant on the 'discretionary' spending dollars of other Americans, and those 'discretionary' dollars have been declining, and will continue to decline in 2013 ! However, I will point out that new 'service' oriented businesses which target the 1% of top earners have a high probability of success ... well, that has held true in the recent past but may not continue into the future if targeted 2013 tax increases reduce the 'discretionary' spending dollars of those top 1%.
    Tons of people are still making tons of money and spending Mel- exclusive of the 1%, that is not going to change in the U.S. for the rest of our lifetimes. There are dozens of new fields that are exploding right now and the U.S.'s new energy wealth and prime spot as an innovator in future technologies will guarantee lots of money circulating around for a long time to come. Your implying that some additional taxes on the 1% is going to change their discretionary spending to the point that they won't have money to spend is one the the most ridiculous comments I've ever read on the internet, even if you charged 100% taxes they would still have enough "discretionary" money for several lifetimes.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    There are dozens of new fields that are exploding right now and the U.S.'s new energy wealth and prime spot as an innovator in future technologies will guarantee lots of money circulating around for a long time to come
    I'll agree that the oil and gas production which has been taking place on privately owned land is a 'bright spot' in terms of US wealth creation. However, in the grand scheme of things, it is a geographically isolated phenomena that is primarily benefitting the handful of US states which both have oil or gas deposits and also have approved the 'fracking' procedures necessary to extract that gas and oil at a reasonable 'cost'.

    As to US innovation, as already pointed out in past threads, for the past 20 years or so the new technologies conceived and developed in the USA primarily benefit the 'founders' and a comparative handful of highly skilled designers, engineers and support personnel. But once it comes to mass marketing of the new product, the benefits don't trickle down to ordinary Americans anymore - because production is outsourced to avoid high US labor and regulatory compliance costs. Foxconn anyone ?

    If you're talking about an innovative 'service' as opposed to an innovative 'product', you wind up back at the same point discussed above, where the gains achieved by that innovative 'service' provider come at the expense of existing 'service' providers. This isn't necessarily a net positive.

    as to your guarantee of 'lots of money circulating around', keep in mind that, at the moment, the source of most of this money is foreign lenders to the US gov't !!!

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    tumblr_lols30rUm71qeiwtao1_500.gif
    Im not gonna lie...I dont care that this thread is off topic. Continue.... =)

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    ^^^ not wanting to deprive any DD readers of additional 'entertainment' ...

    Tons of people are still making tons of money and spending Mel- exclusive of the 1%, that is not going to change in the U.S. for the rest of our lifetimes.
    Keep in mind that 'making money' and 'spending money' can and do become decoupled ... for a while !

    from

    (snip)"WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans increased their spending in September at twice the rate that their income grew, a sign of confidence in the economy. Still, consumers made up the difference by saving less for a third straight month, a troubling trend.

    The Commerce Department said Monday that consumer spending increased 0.8 percent in September from August. That followed a 0.5 percent gain in August and was the best showing since February.

    Personal income rose 0.4 percent, an improvement from a slight 0.1 percent gain in August and the best gain since March. However, after adjusting for inflation and taxes, income was flat in September. That followed a 0.3 percent decline in August.(snip)


    Just to make sure the AP's spin doesn't obscure the reality here, US consumer spending increased 0.8% in September, while personal income net of inflation and taxes was flat at 0.0% !

    The obvious take-away is that, over short time periods, it is indeed possible for Americans to spend more than they are earning. The obvious means of doing this are running up credit card balances, taking out new 5+ year auto loans, home equity loans, mortgages etc. This can indeed provide the economy with a short time 'boost'. However, over the longer term, future spending must suffer as a result of the costs of servicing this accumulated debt. This can happen via voluntary 'retrenchment', where consumers decide to spend less than they are earning and apply the difference to paying down their debts. This can also happen via bankruptcy, where consumers are forcibly prevented from continued spending. And gov't spending in excess of tax revenues made possible by additional gov't bond based borrowing arguably follows the same basic economic laws.

    Either way it means that today's 'boost' will inevitably be followed by 'pain' later, as accumulated debt must eventually be 'serviced'. Thus, contrary to your claim, it is extremely doubtful that the 'pain' can be successfully postponed for 'the rest of our lifetimes'.

    Granted that the postponement of eventual 'pain' seems to be the prime directive for the FED and Washington politicians of late ... ( providing the requested off-topic barb ). However, experiencing the 'pain' associated with past private sector, and especially gov't, debt accumulation coming 'home to roost' is arguably directly ON topic !!! And, as indirectly stated by the author of my original post, experiencing the 'pain' associated with accumulated past debts cannot be totally avoided no matter what sort of future debt / spending policy changes might be made !!!
    Last edited by Melonie; 10-30-2012 at 10:45 PM.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    some 'professional commentary' ... from


    (snip)"(Reuters) - The United States runs the risk of a recession far deeper than many investors and policymakers may think if lawmakers fail to avert looming tax hikes and cuts to public spending.

    Absent action by Congress, the country will face the so-called fiscal cliff at the start of next year, a combination of lower spending and higher taxes that is expected to extract about $600 billion from the economy.

    Many economists think every dollar of deficit reduction will subtract nearly the same amount from economic growth.

    By that measure, the current course could cause the economy to contract by 0.5 percent in 2013, according to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) that have been largely embraced by Wall Street and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

    But research by economists in academia and at the International Monetary Fund suggests a dollar of deficit reduction could drain as much as $1.70 from the economy, making the prospective belt tightening much more dangerous.

    "You can take that 0.5 percent contraction and double it," said Barry Eichengreen, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley.

    These researchers suspect fiscal contractions take a bigger-than-normal bite from economies when interest rates are very low, as is the case at the moment in the United States and in much of the developed world.

    One explanation, Eichengreen said, is that when rates are higher, central banks can easily lower them to provide a counterweight to austerity. But when rates are near zero, as they are in the United States, it's harder to ease the pinch.

    Historical data suggests higher taxes or lower government spending normally lead households to cut back on purchases only modestly. In the three decades through 2009, a dollar in government austerity would suck only half that from the economy, according to IMF research published this month which examined fiscal policy in 28 countries.

    But economies around the world appear to be acting differently since the Great Recession. The IMF said it appeared that every dollar of recent fiscal consolidation has drained anywhere from $0.90 to $1.70 from economies.

    The IMF said this suggested central banks have been having difficulty offsetting the impact from tighter budgets.

    That could well be the case in the United States as well. The Fed pushed overnight rates to near zero in December 2008 and has resorted to the unconventional policy of purchasing government and housing-related bonds to revive the economy.

    The central bank's chairman, Ben Bernanke, has acknowledged he would not be able to fully offset the pain if the economy runs into the "fiscal cliff."

    With the U.S. jobless rate at 7.8 percent and the recovery still shaky, the possibility of a greater-than-expected hit to activity might be food for thought for lawmakers, who will be looking to cut some sort of deal on the budget before year end"(snip)

  30. #22
    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    You're being extremely silly Eric. How do you possibly infer I am suggesting people can open a business for under $500 and be part of the 1%???? that's stupid. What I am saying is that ANYONE can instead of wasting time reading and focusing about how bad things ARE SUPPOSED to be can for a very small investment have a legitimate shot at becoming independent of many of those factors- no, they will not become part of the 1% but they will have a much better shot at improving their lives and remove a lot of the powerlessness that comes with being tossed around by economic and political factors outside your control.

    America's highest productivity came at times with taxes much higher than the ones we will be experiencing. Even with the increased taxes on small business, deductions and other incentives will make small business income much less taxable than earned income. There are hundreds of small businesses that require almost no experience and are simple to do with extremely small investment. There are agencies like S.C.O.R.E. that provide unlimited free business advice doled out by former executives.

    Yes Eric, including high school drop-outs and single-moms. There are millions of both categories who have started successful businesses in the past. It's never been easier or cheaper to do so than it is today. Do you really think it that improbablefor a single-mom to start a business like this:

    GIFT BASKETS. This is one of the hottest product-oriented home businesses around. You don't have to make the wicker baskets yourself (check your Yellow Pages for a supplier), but it is up to your taste and imagination to fill them with tempting goodies. Create baskets for all occasions--birthdays, anniversaries, retirements, births, Mother's and Father's Day, Valentine's Day--or no occasion at all; "I Miss You" gift basket. Find suppliers who will sell the items in quantity for the best price. Put a variety of food items in the basket along with small gifts appropriate to the occasion: satin hearts for Valentine's Day; a rattle, baby birth (gift baskets don't always have to contain food) champagne for anniversaries, etc. Resources: Success With Gift Baskets
    .

    Your post is quite ironic coming from someone who's tagline is: "The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt"
    Put aside my admitted sarcasm and your idea is still ridiculous . Most single mothers who are high school drop outs simply are not equipped to start their own business. Some could to be sure and have been doing so since time immemorial. Most can't.
    As a matter of fact I know several women who had a gift basket business. Only one was successful. Most could not compete with stores and catalogue sales. And in a down economy such frills are likely to be the first thing cut from a LOT of budgets.
    Many people will do what I have done - make up their own gift basket and /or gift bag to give to someone. If they can afford to give at all.

    As for productivity vis a vis tax rates you are only partially correct. Yes, the rates were higher but so was tax avoidance and there were more deductions. We also had more frequent recessions ( 3 during Eisenhower's 8 years alone ). Are you saying that high taxes make our economy more productive ? We were also numero uno manufacturing wise and state and local taxes were much lower then than they are now. So were a lot of other things.

    Where we DO agree is that we need more small businesses and our policies ought to encourage the creation of same.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 11-08-2012 at 12:05 PM.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    ^^^ I agree that most of those high-school single moms probably are not capable of starting and operating a small business on their own, but at this time there are unprecedented resources for them to draw on and get the skills and knowledge etc that would exponentially increase their chances of success. We live in a cause and effect world and there isn't much getting away from it. I would venture to guess that the one person you knew with the successful gift basket business did more than a few things the ones who failed didn't as well as not doing a few or more things that they did. For someone starting one of these businesses it's as simple as studying what the successful operators did and replicating it, there is a reason why over 90% of franchises succeed. With modern communication, current payment solutions and inexpensive and efficient delivery that is widely available, any operator of this business has an almost unlimited number of potential clients- worldwide. They only need one or two big companies to make a viable living if done properly, even if they don't get those companies as clients, there are way more than enough individuals who they could get, making competition from big stores and people like you who do it on your own a moot point. In fact you just gave me a great idea for a business, someone could find the components that make a successful gift-basket business (like the one person you know) and then package up all that information and sell it as a business opportunity for $275 or so.

    As to your question on high taxes making our economy more productive, I am absolutely not saying that. I am saying that there is a sweet spot with the amount of taxes taken out that gets reintroduced to the economy that will create steady, sustainable growth that will benefit all. If you take too little tax out there will be problems, if you take too much tax out there will be problems. I am saying that it would make a lot of sense for us to analyze the situation as a whole and direct our attention to finding that optimal percentage where people will still have plenty of motivation to be productive and yet the proper amount will come out to foster continues economic growth and stimulation of the economy.

  32. #24
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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    ^^^ I agree that most of those high-school single moms probably are not capable of starting and operating a small business on their own, but at this time there are unprecedented resources for them to draw on and get the skills and knowledge etc that would exponentially increase their chances of success. We live in a cause and effect world and there isn't much getting away from it. I would venture to guess that the one person you knew with the successful gift basket business did more than a few things the ones who failed didn't as well as not doing a few or more things that they did. For someone starting one of these businesses it's as simple as studying what the successful operators did and replicating it, there is a reason why over 90% of franchises succeed. With modern communication, current payment solutions and inexpensive and efficient delivery that is widely available, any operator of this business has an almost unlimited number of potential clients- worldwide. They only need one or two big companies to make a viable living if done properly, even if they don't get those companies as clients, there are way more than enough individuals who they could get, making competition from big stores and people like you who do it on your own a moot point. In fact you just gave me a great idea for a business, someone could find the components that make a successful gift-basket business (like the one person you know) and then package up all that information and sell it as a business opportunity for $275 or so.

    As to your question on high taxes making our economy more productive, I am absolutely not saying that. I am saying that there is a sweet spot with the amount of taxes taken out that gets reintroduced to the economy that will create steady, sustainable growth that will benefit all. If you take too little tax out there will be problems, if you take too much tax out there will be problems. I am saying that it would make a lot of sense for us to analyze the situation as a whole and direct our attention to finding that optimal percentage where people will still have plenty of motivation to be productive and yet the proper amount will come out to foster continues economic growth and stimulation of the economy.
    Working backwards in addressing your points : We'll never find that "sweet spot" when the biggest chunk of our budget becomes paying interest to Chinese and other foreign buyers of our debt. Many single mothers can't even scrape up an extra $20 a week let alone $275.

    The one friend who succeeded was SINGLE. She didn't have kids to care for and support. That is why most single mothers are poor and stay poor : They have kids to take care of. In addition to the time and money required there is also the fatigue factor. Having kids can wear you out so that you are NOT able and maybe not willing to start a side business. She also graduated high school and had some college. She was able to READ and use a computer. And understand and apply what she read.
    She worked harder than the others and ( shhhhhh ! ) she was and is very attractive which did nothing but help her make sales to men. And maybe some women too. Not that there's anything wrong with it lol.

    So as part of your program we would need to have GED remediation; child care; paid coffee breaks and makeovers. Seriously.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 11-15-2012 at 10:38 AM.

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    Default Re: Forget the Election - Get Ready For Another Year of Slow Economic Growth

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Working backwards in addressing your points : We'll never find that "sweet spot" when the biggest chink of our budget becomes paying interest to Chinese and other foreign buyers of our debt. Many single mothers can't even scrape up an extra $20 a week let alone $275.

    The one friend who succeeded was SINGLE. She didn't have kids to care for and support. That is why most single mothers are poor and stay poor : They have kids to take care of. In addition to the time and money required there is also the fatigue factor. Having kids can wear you out so that you are NOT able and maybe not willing to start a side business. She also graduated high school and had some college. She was able to READ and use a computer. And understand and apply what she read.
    She worked harder than the others and ( shhhhhh ! ) she was and is very attractive which did nothing but help her make sales to men. And maybe some women too. Not that there's anything wrong with it lol.

    So as part of your program we would need to have GED remediation; child care; paid coffee breaks and makeovers. Seriously.
    Sorry Eric, BS on both points.

    We had the "sweet spot" in the 90's. There is currently plenty of money around, there is just currently a massive gap in the distribution.

    Your post on the single moms is extremely narrow-minded and short-sighted. There are millions of businesses that ARE being successfully run by single moms. While there are certainly some single moms that can't get $250 there are millions that can- should the idea be scrapped because EVERYONE can't get it- that's stupid. Over 60% of the people who start successful businesses through the KIVA program http://www.kiva.org/ are single moms, and they are starting from a level of poverty that is unheard of in the US.

    In addition,there are tons of programs and organizations like this one http://www.projectsinglemoms.com/blog1/ to help women and specifically single moms with just this type of thing and much of it is 100% free. The combination of kickstarter.com and SCORE can make it possible for almost any person to get into and successfully operate a business.

    That's great that your friend was able to be successful but your criteria using her as an example for other people is ridiculous. There are plenty of women who have created tremendous success with none of those items. There are lots of free programs to get single moms education, there are tons of home-based businesses with flexible schedules that are designed specifically with single moms in mind. Your suggestion that a women has to or should be attractive to be successful is particularly insulting- a makeover??? WTF?.

    BTW, here are some successful single mom stories, most of them involve single moms with no money:

    http://www.earnmoney-savemoney.com/t...businesswoman/

    http://www.examiner.com/article/harr...rags-to-riches

    http://www.blackspeakers.com/listing...ublishing.html

    http://www.divinecaroline.com/32/515...n-successful/3

    http://www.streetdirectory.com/trave...ess_story.html
    Last edited by jimboe7373; 11-08-2012 at 03:03 PM.

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