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Thread: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

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    Default where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    While it's all too possible to 'paint' a rosey picture via cherry picking particular statistics ( like year over year same store sales ... which don't take into consideration the closing of other stores ), the 'raw data' is much harder to spin. And where retail sales dollars are concerned, MasterCard spending totals are as 'transparent' a statistic as you are able to find.

    from


    (snip)Shocked and appalled—that was the reaction to the shopping-season debacle unfolding in the US. It was triggered by MasterCard’s SpendingPulse report that poured ice-cold water on expectations of a 3% sales growth. But now there’s a new term to describe “consumer spending,” “consumer debt,” and ultimately “trade deficits” when they occur as a function of such uplifting concepts as “holiday season” or “Christmas” whose magic is boiled down to just one issue: how much did everyone spend?

    Who came up with it? Retailer par excellence, Michel-Edouard Leclerc, CEO of E.Leclerc, France’s largest retailer with a market share of 18%. He faced a challenging environment as unemployment soared above 10% and as the already anemic private sector plunged into a crisis. Yet “Christmas was saved,” he said today, by “the festive spirit.”

    The “rush during the last three days” made up for weakness during the prior weeks and brought E.Leclerc’s sales up to expectation. He outlined the phenomenon of the “festive spirit”—that drive to separate yourself from your hard-earned money, and if you don’t have any, from borrowed money—in more scientific detail: “The deeper we go into the crisis,” he said, “the more there are moments like these, when people tell themselves, ‘Sh-t, let yourself go.’”

    But in the US, that festive spirit was apparently lacking. During the eight weeks before Christmas, according to MasterCard’s SpendingPulse report, consumers only spent 0.7% more than during the same period last year, the worst showing since 2008. Despite some help from the calendar: there was one more weekend between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year. When inflation is taken into account—CPI rose 1.8% in November over prior year—sales actually dropped.

    So, it’s an estimate. Data gleaned from MasterCard payments were extrapolated to all payment forms—including a wad of wrinkled twenties I pulled out of my pocket to pay for dinner—and to all consumer products, from flowers to pickup trucks.

    “It’s a lost season,” said SpendingPulse VP Michael McNamara. The festive spirit was even lacking online, which disappointed with an 8.4% increase, rather than the double-digit increases we’ve become accustomed to. Many Retailers tried to salvage the season at the last minute through heavy discounting, with mixed results. More discounting is expected to clear out the inventory, and to wrest that money by hook or crook away from the harried and strung-out consumer.

    Blamed was Sandy: in the Mid-Atlantic region, sales dropped 3.9%. And the Fiscal Cliff—a veiled threat at Congress and the White House that reducing budget deficits in any meaningful way now, rather than kicking the can a decade down the road, will wreak havoc on the economy.

    To get a handle on the Fiscal Cliff’s impact on the festive spirit, I’ve been doing my own mini survey. Of course, there were those respondents who watched the theatrics and fretted about every twist and turn. But quite a few people reacted similarly to the guy who cuts my hair—a small-business owner, hard-working, in his forties. He confused the Fiscal Cliff with the “Mayan” apocalypse and wasn’t worried about either one of them. He did lament that he was spending too much money on clothes and that he tried to sell some of his $400-jeans but could only get $20 to $40 a pair, if he was lucky. And he groused about the so-so month he was having. Those were his worries. Not the Fiscal Cliff.

    But there are real issues that impact the festive spirit. For example, the 46.2 million people who are on food stamps, up from 30 million in 2008. Or the millions of people who are either unemployed or have dropped out of the work force and no longer count as unemployed. The Employment-Population ratio, which has been wobbling near its multi-decade low, confirms that barely enough jobs have been created since 2009 to keep up with the growth of the working-age population.

    Nevertheless, we cling desperately to glimmers of hope: among them, weekly chain store sales. After two utterly morose weeks in early December (-0.7% and -3.1%), sales rose 0.7% for the week through December 22 and 4.3% during the prior week. The festive spirit at the last minute. But even the festive spirit may have trouble overcoming the constraints of reality."(snip)

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    ^^^Why is it necessary to post articles like this?, what is your intended purpose?. Is it to try to validate your ongoing premise that the economy is crashing and things are getting worse?.

    If so a couple of points- this article lists only Mastercard's transactions and the authors opinions. The former which contains growth over last year, the latter which contains extremely unreliable data using estimates from "extrapolated" data to apply to all forms of payment- can you get any more of an unreliable indicator than that?.

    I would find it extremely unlikely if this "informal" survey took into account gift-card buying which many times are paid for at the retailer with cash (ie. not showing up in Mastercard sales):

    "...Gift cards continue to top lists of most popular purchases this season, spurring billions in sales for merchants. The category is growing quickly"

    "...with purchases expected to reach $110 billion in the United States this year, according to estimates from CEB TowerGroup. That's a 10 percent jump over gift card spending in 2011, and TowerGroup analysts expect similar growth through 2015, when sales are expected to leap to $138 billion."
    http://articles.baltimoresun.com/201...unwanted-cards
    Last edited by jimboe7373; 12-27-2012 at 03:14 PM.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    actually, the intended purpose is to provide some 'spin-free' insight into the actual state of the US economy for the potential benefit of DD reading investors. To be absolutely blunt, never in history has there been such a gap between the 'real' economy and the 'official' economic statistics.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    actually, the intended purpose is to provide some 'spin-free' insight into the actual state of the US economy for the potential benefit of DD reading investors. To be absolutely blunt, never in history has there been such a gap between the 'real' economy and the 'official' economic statistics.
    No offense Mel, but I think a lot of that disparity is in your head because of your ideology. Things always shift and evolve and that trend has never happened quicker than it does now, "official" economic statistics and quantifying tools very rarely move forward or evolve at the same pace. You read that article and because Mastercard says it didn't increase by as much as it wanted to along with some guy who has a friend who spent less this year- and you automatically extrapolate that things are getting worse. That is only a part of the reality- the whole of reality though is that there is a fundamental change occurring as to how Americans spend money holiday shopping- gift card purchases are booming and will likely continue to have huge growth- the Mastercard index doesn't come close to fully picking that up.

    Besides all that-while it did work well to fulfill it's role of providing the negative data you are constantly in search of, it was an extremely flawed analysis. Here is why:

    "It has bugged me all morning. MasterCard says retail sales will be up only 0.7 percent this season.
    The National Retail Federation (NRF), in an interview on our air, said sales would be up 4.1 percent.
    Now, even allowing for different surveys, this is a huge difference.

    So I asked MasterCard for more specifics on how they analyze their data.

    Here is what they told me: "Two points may account for difference," MasterCard spokesperson Marisa Grimes said.

    1) "Time period: we are including the week of Hurricane Sandy in these estimates. That had a negative impact on the national figures."

    2) "Holiday sectors: We are only including the holiday related categories. The rest of retail nondiscretionary such as food (grocery, restaurants), Gasoline, Building Materials... are not included in the holiday estimate."

    "It is possible that total retail (ex-auto) that includes all the non discretionary sectors could be up north of 3%," MasterCard's Grimes said. "This broader view was up 4.5% in November," she added.

    In other words, MasterCard's more complete view--with all sectors--will likely be close to the NRF estimate."

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100339986/The...Dilemma_Solved

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    The short answer is we don't know yet. It is best to wait until AFTER major retailers like Target and Macy's report their post - Black Friday numbers.
    That being said, predictions are not good. Disposable income is DOWN which hardly bodes well for healthy retail sales numbers.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    ^^^ thanks for posting that CNBC spin report. The 'real world' translation, which is very consistent with Eric Stoner's point, goes like this ...

    Because Americans are now paying higher prices for food and energy with stagnant or declining take home paychecks, they have less money left over to spend on discretionary items. This is obviously an important point for dancers and camgirls in general, who rely on discretionary spending for their incomes. It is also still relevant to investors, since declining discretionary retail sales will translate into declining stock share prices for the major retailers.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    ^^^Just because the article doesn't jibe with your often incorrect ideology does not mean it's "spin". The Mastercard spokesperson herself admitted to the actual stat being 4.5% when the factors they omitted in their anaysis were factored in, how is that spin?

    In addition, the rest of your entire context is ridiculous- 1st off oil prices are pretty much where they were a year ago: http://www.infomine.com/investment/m...de-oil/1-year/, natural gas is down from recent highs and very close to the same price it was this time last year. http://www.infomine.com/investment/m...al-gas/1-year/ , gasoline prices are down from several high marks during the year and are slightly lower than the beginning of 2012.

    Here are some more actual facts regarding this:

    The seasonally adjusted consumer price index dropped 0.3 percent in November from October, the Labor Department said Friday. Gas prices fell 7.4 percent, the biggest drop in nearly four years. That offset a 0.2 percent rise in food prices.
    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/busines...ZZnu24gFeyHMEI

    So while food prices were up mildly, gas prices were down substantially.

    Besides all of that your premise is completely flawed- even if all of your reasoning about discretionary income was true- there are still hundreds of other factors that will determine whether people will spend or not. As usual your analysis is flat and static and takes only into account negative possibilities. The Consumer Sentiment Index is subsantially higher now than it was over the last 24 months- that will have a huge impact on people's decision to spend or not. http://advisorperspectives.com/dshor...ment-index.gif

    Some of the other items that make your analysis flawed are the previously mentioned huge growth in gift cards and the growing dynamic of people making purchases in the first week of January when many discounts are offered.
    Last edited by jimboe7373; 12-28-2012 at 12:16 PM.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post
    ^^^Your entire context is ridiculous- 1st off oil prices are pretty much where they were a year ago: http://www.infomine.com/investment/m...de-oil/1-year/, natural gas is down from recent highs and very close to the same price it was this time last year. http://www.infomine.com/investment/m...al-gas/1-year/ , gasoline prices are down from several high marks during the year and are slightly lower than the beginning of 2012.

    Here are some more actual facts regarding this:

    The seasonally adjusted consumer price index dropped 0.3 percent in November from October, the Labor Department said Friday. Gas prices fell 7.4 percent, the biggest drop in nearly four years. That offset a 0.2 percent rise in food prices.
    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/busines...ZZnu24gFeyHMEI

    So while food prices were up mildly, gas prices were down substantially.

    Besides all of that your premise is completely flawed- even if all of your reasoning about discretionary income was true- there are still hundreds of other factors that will determine whether people will spend or not. As usual your analysis is flat and static and takes only into account negative possibilities. The Consumer Sentiment Index is subsantially higher now than it was over the last 24 months- that will have a huge impact on people's decision to spend or not. http://advisorperspectives.com/dshor...ment-index.gif

    Some of the other items that make your analysis flawed are the previously mentioned huge growth in gift cards and the growing dynamic of people making purchases in the first week of January when many discounts are offered.
    Whoa ! While some of your facts and figures like gas prices are correct, you are WAY OFF on Consumer Confidence. It dropped substantially in December. It was expected to be between 68 and 70 but came in at 65.1 which is a substantial drop.
    Black Friday was good this year. Good not great. So far, there is nothing to indicate that retail sales sustained themselves at that level through Christmas. To make things a bit worse, this year's Christmas shopping season was a week longer than usual. When retailers are HOPING for a boost from after-Christmas sales and January (! ? ! ?) we know we are in trouble . January is traditionally one of the slowest months for retail.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    My mistake Eric, I meant to type the Consumer Sentiment Index was up substantially for the previous 2 years- not 2 months- thanks for catching that. Aside from that- no, we do not know we are in trouble- while the shopping season was a week longer, there wasn't anything remotely like Hurricane Sandy that caused unprecedented damage on the largest populated area in the US a year ago. Also, words and analysis like "traditional" shouldn't be used- the world and economy are evolving rapidly and these kinds of motifs are becoming outdated at record rates.

    You'll also notice that Amazon had huge sales:

    "...the company boasts that it had its biggest ever single shopping day, November 26, with 26.5 million items sold."

    ...not surprisingly, Christmas day was "the biggest day ever for downloads from Amazon’s enormous digital ecosystem of over 23 million movies, TV shows, songs, magazines, books, audiobooks, apps and games".

    "...Amazon also claims that Cyber Monday was the single biggest days for Kindle sales"


    The whole point though was Melonie's original contention to use the MasterCard Spending Pulse analysis as a realistic indicator. It was severely inaccurate as evidenced by both the admission of their spokeswoman and the fact that gift card purchases are skyrocketing and are often not included in the SpendingPulse analysis.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    I take my usual position : Wait and see until ALL the facts are in. We will see.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    ^^^ unfortunately, where investors are concerned, the way the 'real world' market works is 'buy the rumor' and 'sell the news'. Or in this context, failing to take action in regard to retailer stocks until ALL the facts are in is likely to result in an investment loss.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ unfortunately, where investors are concerned, the way the 'real world' market works is 'buy the rumor' and 'sell the news'. Or in this context, failing to take action in regard to retailer stocks until ALL the facts are in is likely to result in an investment loss.
    Well then it would be a really good service if you would start informing your faithful readers here of the "news" and not your ideologically-based, skewered interpretation of it.

    As far as your negative OP- it was an estimate, not "news"- as mentioned right in the article you copied and pasted. They neglected to include several very large components in their analysis like food, gasoline and building products in addition to completely failing to account for the multi $Billion increase in gift card purchases. If that meets your criteria of "real-world market" information, I can understand why you are reduced to blogging this kind of stuff unpaid in an inappropriate section of a stripper forum.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    ^^^ it was 'buy the rumor' content from an investor's standpoint ( or in this case, SELL the rumor ). FYI food, gasoline and building products sales are of little help to major retailers' bottom lines ... i.e. Sears, Amazon and other 'discretionary' consumer goods retailers LOSE sales revenues / profits / stock share value as US consumers are forced to spend more money on non-discretionary food and energy.

    As to your personal comments directed towards me, everyone is entitled to an opinion. Where stock markets are concerned, certain opinions result in nice gains while other opinions result in losses. But waiting for undisputed facts results in nothing. And acting on official statistics as if they were facts can be 'dangerous'.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ it was 'buy the rumor' content from an investor's standpoint ( or in this case, SELL the rumor ). FYI food, gasoline and building products sales are of little help to major retailers' bottom lines ... i.e. Sears, Amazon and other 'discretionary' consumer goods retailers LOSE sales revenues / profits / stock share value as US consumers are forced to spend more money on non-discretionary food and energy.

    As to your personal comments directed towards me, everyone is entitled to an opinion. Where stock markets are concerned, certain opinions result in nice gains while other opinions result in losses. But waiting for undisputed facts results in nothing. And acting on official statistics as if they were facts can be 'dangerous'.
    ^^^No Melonie, food, gas and other products sales DO count for something when you remove them from the equation and then tout the revised total as .7% instead of the more accurate 4.3% to back-up a rarely correct ideological outlook.

    As already discussed, as of late large price decreases in gas have more than offset low food price increases, so your primary synopsis is already incorrect. More and more people are also working each month. Besides all of that, there are many other factors besides your overly simplistic example regarding sales revenue and US consumers spending discretionary income.

    Here is some additional data:

    "...The Commerce Department said Friday that consumer spending rose 0.4 percent compared with October. Personal income jumped 0.6 percent, the biggest gain in 11 months."

    "...With income rising faster than spending, the saving rate rose to 3.6 percent of income in November. That was up from 3.4 percent in October."

    "...A separate government report Friday showed that orders to U.S. factories for nondurable goods rose a solid 0.7 percent in November. And a key category that tracks business investment spending gained sharply for a second straight month."

    “...Despite concerns about the fiscal cliff, businesses appear to have boosted spending at year-end,”
    http://www.kansas.com/2012/12/22/261...g-rebound.html



    I never proposed to wait till all the facts were in, that was Eric. What I do propose though is to make sure you are making a decision from well-rounded, non-ideologically based information that takes into consideration changing dynamics and evolving trends. I would also propose that people not get stuck in an echo-chamber of negativity and fear. As things evolve there is always change, some industries and companies will go up and others will go down. ALL GOOD or ALL BAD is almost never the reality, that is why you are wrong so often, you seem to compulsively focus on ALL BAD. Growth and decline are 99% of the time going to be occurring simultaneously- whichever one a person looks for they will likely find.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    again 'gamed' statistics ...

    US official consumer spending includes spending on ALL items not just 'discretionary' consumer goods relevant to this thread. It also is NOT inflation adjusted, meaning that in 'real' terms consumer spending may have actually declined ( as was pointed out by my OP )

    US official personal income includes such income sources as social welfare transfer payments / extended unemployment benefits / SSI disability payments etc. ... which have indeed increased this year ! This may help Dollar General and WalMart, but it is of dubious value to Sears, JC Penney etc. ( or for that matter exotic dancers and camgirls ).

    The personal savings rate of 3.6% needs to be compared to a historical average personal savings rate of 6.9% Also, 'discharged' debt counts toward the savings rate i.e. an American settling a $10k credit card debt for $2k is considered to have 'saved' $8k ( but obviously also results in a matching $8k loss for a 'non'-personal lending institution ... which isn't 'counted' in the official statistic of course )

    Indeed businesses appear to have boosted spending at year-end. This is the arguable result of 2012 business taxation on capital spending items ( i.e. high 'expensing' limits ) being far more favorable than ( probable ) business taxation on capital spending items in 2013. This also means that this is a 'one time' event, i.e. capital spending that WOULD have taken place in 2013 has been 'accelerated' into 2012 !

    Circling back on topic, the MasterCard spending report discussed by my OP represents 'real' money being spent ( or not spent ) by mainstream US consumers. No it is not a 'perfect' indicator. But arguably it is a more accurate indicator than any of the 'gamed' official statistics you just attempted to have us accept at face value.
    Last edited by Melonie; 12-29-2012 at 04:47 AM.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Circling back on topic, the MasterCard spending report discussed by my OP represents 'real' money being spent ( or not spent ) by mainstream US consumers. No it is not a 'perfect' indicator. But arguably it is a more accurate indicator than any of the 'gamed' official statistics you just attempted to have us accept at face value.
    Not only is it not perfect, it's almost completely inaccurate- it omits far too many variables. For you to use it as an example of a downward trend is completely irresponsible.

    As we have frequently discussed but you seem incapable of understanding, there are shifting dynamics and loss in one areas is often made up and even surpassed in another. As to the original question about where the festive spirit was, a part of it was here:

    "Holiday season retail e-commerce spending for the first 51 days of the season is up 16 percent to $38.7 billion, according to comScore. This past week, which was the last full week consumers could order gifts online and receive them in time for Christmas, saw Free Shipping Day (Monday, Dec. 17) bring in $1.01 billion in spending. This past week brought in a whopping 53 percent increase in spending, thanks to free shipping offers."

    "As we see more numbers late in the holiday season, it looks like a banner year for online retailers. The 2012 holiday season saw 12 days with more than $1 billion spending, surpassing last year’s total of 10 individual days. Cyber Monday led the charge with a record $1.465 billion in spending, followed by Tuesday Dec. 4 with $1.362 billion and Green Monday Dec. 10 with $1.275 billion."
    http://techcrunch.com/2012/12/23/tha...ercent-to-39b/

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by jimboe7373 View Post

    "Holiday sectors: We are only including the holiday related categories. The rest of retail nondiscretionary such as food (grocery, restaurants), Gasoline, Building Materials... are not included in the holiday estimate."
    The sectors she is talking about is not set by the credit card company or per charge. The sector is determined by what the retailer registers when they sign up for merchant services. When I worked for a national credit card company years ago this was a big issue. Rewards on some cards were determined by sector spending. People buy gas at Walmart but not get the extra rewards because the sector registered was groceries. The sector numbers do not take into account mixed spending. If the retailer is registered as X then ALL of the spending there is listed as X spending. Some retailers had a totally different sector listed then what they sold because of sloppy paper work. Long story short these numbers are more screwed up then you think.

    At the same time the stats from the government are doctored too. The main reason unemployment has been falling is because they are kicking people off of it. 2 million people were kicked off this year. Google unemployment kick and add them up.

    So in the sea of inaccurate information look out your own window. The economy is still on edge. I dont think there is much growth. Most are hanging on by the skin of their teeth. Unemployment is probably closer to 10%. The underemployed are a much bigger number... i would guess upwards of 20%. We are stagnant. I am not sure if we are headed up or down. But what I do know is that one major negative blow ie europe falling apart, another war and we will drop like a rock.
    Nature knows no indecencies; man invents them. ~ Mark Twain


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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    Maybe Christmas doesn't comes from a store. Maybe, just maybe, it's a little bit more?
    "Well then it's a good thing your faith in me has no impact on how much I make." - MissEgo

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    ^^^ a true enough point ... however the future profits / stock prices of Sears and other 'discretionary' retailers depends on US customers spending money in their stores !

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by drearea View Post
    Maybe Christmas doesn't comes from a store. Maybe, just maybe, it's a little bit more?
    lol you Grinch you

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vamp View Post
    The sectors she is talking about is not set by the credit card company or per charge. The sector is determined by what the retailer registers when they sign up for merchant services. When I worked for a national credit card company years ago this was a big issue. Rewards on some cards were determined by sector spending. People buy gas at Walmart but not get the extra rewards because the sector registered was groceries. The sector numbers do not take into account mixed spending. If the retailer is registered as X then ALL of the spending there is listed as X spending. Some retailers had a totally different sector listed then what they sold because of sloppy paper work. Long story short these numbers are more screwed up then you think.
    Yes, that will make the numbers even less reliable. What we we're talking about here though was MasterCard SpendingPulse, which is used to determine the amount of buying based on the transactions that MasterCard receives. Melonie took a report in which SpendingPulse published that retail sales were up only .7% this year and used that as the basis for one of her many negative posts. After some investigation it turns out that SpendingPulse omitted sales from the 3 areas mentioned and that once they were factored in the actual number was around 4.3%. Besides that, they extrapolated other payment systems, so the whole thing becomes just a wildly speculative estimate.

    I have no doubt government numbers are doctored and manipulated as well. There is however a lot of hiring going on though and many people that were unemployed are now working. The airlines and auto companies have added tons of workers, as have other industries. Many people that weren't actively looking are now back on the list as being unemployed as they have returned as the economy has improved. Besides that there is an ongoing fundamental shift in commerce and labor- with technology record numbers of people are earning money and many making a living outside of a typical salaried employment position. There are millions of camgirls, bloggers, app designers, web designers, consultants, web marketers etc. making money as free-lancers. I'm not sure how many of those will get picked up as employed.

    We have been having slow, steady growth for a while and have recovered from the crash better than almost every other country. Our technology sectors and even manufacturing are doing much better than most people think. There is an ongoing trend where wage and overhead increases in China is making the US a better option for a lot of companies to operate from and less companies are leaving and some are even coming back. That will likely be a growing trend. There are around 600,000 mostly high paying jobs in the US that are unfilled because of a lack trained candidates- that is something that could be worked on relatively easily. IMHO however, with technology and the ease of money transfer, this is the age of the entrepreneur. There are huge transformations going on and those who are aware of them and adjust well will have a great opportunity to prosper- those who don't and continue to operate from the previous paradigms will likely struggle more and more. It's always been that way, but because of the rapid speed of technology innovation, it happens exponentially quicker now.

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  27. #22
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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    There is however a lot of hiring going on though and many people that were unemployed are now working
    Ii 'real world' terms, over the course of the past 3 years the USA has added just about enough jobs to compensate for growth in the working age population. In terms of 'slow and steady' growth, the vast majority of any apparent growth has been funded by increasing levels of US gov't debt.


    Our technology sectors and even manufacturing are doing much better than most people think.
    Please define 'our' technology sector ! Do you mean a company headquartered in the USA that has 100% of it's products manufactured by a Chinese subcontractor, the majority of its 'service' performed by an Indian subcontractor, books the majority of it's worldwide sales / profits back to Ireland / the Cayman Islands, and pays a miniscule percentage US income tax ?

    Also please define 'our' manufacturing sector ! Do you mean a company headquartered in the USA that has essentially all of its 'high value added' components produced in Asia and shipped to America, where a comparative handful of semi-skilled relatively low pay rate employees 'assemble' those components into a finished product which is then eligible for a 'made in USA' label ?


    Believe it or not, I am not trying to be facetious in pointing out these details - merely realistic. If you'd like to hear a 'professional' opinion on the subject ... albeit one which clashes with YOUR ideology ... check out the video at

    highlites are ... (snip)We argue over whether things are looking better or worse for the American worker. While Stacy argues that the return of some manufacturing is a sign that wealth creating jobs may return to the US, Max counters that the system is so corrupt that the chances of labor getting any cut of the wealth is nil and that the Internet giants will prevent the rise of a powerful decentralized economy online. (snip)
    Last edited by Melonie; 12-29-2012 at 02:52 PM.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    Ii 'real world' terms, over the course of the past 3 years the USA has added just about enough jobs to compensate for growth in the working age population. In terms of 'slow and steady' growth, the vast majority of any apparent growth has been funded by increasing levels of US gov't debt.




    Please define 'our' technology sector ! Do you mean a company headquartered in the USA that has 100% of it's products manufactured by a Chinese subcontractor, the majority of its 'service' performed by an Indian subcontractor, books the majority of it's worldwide sales / profits back to Ireland / the Cayman Islands, and pays a miniscule percentage US income tax ?

    Also please define 'our' manufacturing sector ! Do you mean a company headquartered in the USA that has essentially all of its 'high value added' components produced in Asia and shipped to America, where a comparative handful of semi-skilled relatively low pay rate employees 'assemble' those components into a finished product which is then eligible for a 'made in USA' label ?


    Believe it or not, I am not trying to be facetious in pointing out these details - merely realistic.
    We've already covered this in other threads. Here are a couple of quick references:

    Manufacturing:

    "The manufacturing sector has significantly strengthened and continues growing. USA manufacturing growth reached a 10-month high, the highest since June 2011, and increased for the 33rd consecutive month (since August 2009). The USA economy continued to expand for the 35th consecutive month (since June 2009). The PMI has increased +2.4 the past 2 months"
    http://ospreyflyer.com/?p=9328

    Besides that there are serious reshoring activities underway which are retaining US manufacturing companies and having others come back from overseas. I'm not going to bother to look for a bunch of links a 2nd time, but here are 2:

    "More manufacturing work returns to U.S. shores
    Wage pressure in China, transportation costs push U.S. companies to shift production back home"


    "For example, the most recent contract between Ford Motor Co. and the United Auto Workers allows the company to hire entry-level workers for $15.78 an hour, which is about half of what veteran union workers are paid. As a result, Ford committed to add 5,750 jobs. In total, Ford plans to add 12,000 jobs by 2015. A portion of those jobs will be in-sourced from Mexico, China and Japan.
    http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2...nt-china-wages

    "Element Electronics, for example, has made flat-screen televisions for years at a factory in China but is now expanding in America. It recently opened a factory near Detroit that is producing the first televisions made in the United States by any company in years."

    "At General Electric, local tax breaks and a concessionary union contract contributed to G.E.’s decision to manufacture its latest electric water heater in Louisville, Ky. — instead of in China."

    "Similarly, the Otis Elevator Company is moving production to a new factory in Florence, S.C., from a plant in Nogales, Mexico"

    Master Lock has switched the manufacture of combination locks back to Milwaukee from China"

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/11/bu...anted=all&_r=0


    Technology:

    "...Companies have been putting increased resources into keeping up with ever-changing technology trends not only to stay relevant but also to get ahead of their competitors, which means there is a greatly increased need for employees in the tech field."

    "So which specific jobs are growing the fastest in tech?
    Here are the current top 7 fastest-growing tech jobs, and their estimated 10-year job growth:

    Software Developer (10-year job growth: 32%)
    Information Technology Consultant (10-year job growth: 20%)
    Database Administrator (10-year job growth: 20%)
    IT Business Analyst (10-year job growth: 20%)
    Software Development Test Engineer (10-year job growth: 13%)
    Systems Administrator (10-year job growth: 23%)
    Web Developer (10-year job growth: 13%)"

    http://dawahnigeria.com/careerticle/...bs-more-growth

    In addition, there are tens of thousands of Green and energy technology firms developing, designing, manufacturing and delivering right here in the US. We are at the forefront of Bio-Tech and every other technology innovation. That activity alone accounts for $Billions of dollars of expenditures and economic activity and is creating lots of high-paying jobs.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    ^^^ again you are trying to sell your ideologically friendly headlines at face value ...

    Element Electronics is a poster child example of a US company taking Asian / Chinese made major components, hiring some semi-skilled US workers to assemble them in the USA, and 'pretending' that the product is actually US made. Additionally, Element Electronics is financing a significant part of their operations via Michigan taxpayer subsidies.

    G.E. is doing essentially the same thing with its appliance plant in Kentucky ... importing Asian / Chinese made major components, hiring some semi-skilled US workers to assemble them in the USA, and 'pretending' that the product is actually US made. And true to the formula, a significant part of this operation is financed by Kentucky taxpayer subsidies.

    Your Green Energy company reference amounts to even more crony capitalism / gov't subsidies ... with the added wrinkle that the taxpayer subsidies apply both to the manufacture of the product as well as to the purchase of the product !

    All of the above arguably represent little more than conduits for money borrowed by US gov't entities to be funneled into checks to American workers. And, arguably, this is even less productive in terms of contribution to the US economy as a whole than the US gov't entities sending checks to Americans directly i.e. extended unemployment, welfare etc. because a percentage of the US taxpayer money is also fattening the profits of the crony capitalist business owners. In terms of relevance to this particular thread, taxpayer moneys diverted to business owner profits is taxpayer money that will NOT be available for spending at Sears, JC Penney and other 'discretionary' retailers. It may however benefit 'upscale' retailers like Tiffany's !

    As to your 10 year IT job growth estimates, the key factors left out are A. the estimated pay rates for those future positions, and B. the amount of future growth necessary to simply keep up with US working age population growth !
    Last edited by Melonie; 12-30-2012 at 06:36 AM.

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    Default Re: where the heck was the 'Festive Spirit' ?

    ^^My only "ideology" is common sense- which it seems runs into complete conflict with your ideology. In point of fact, I don't have an ideology, I asses and make judgments and decisions based on the full scope of what is actually happening and reality. This is the opposite of what an ideologue does, they take a pre-formed thought and belief system and then attempt to stuff all the complexity and contrasts of what is actually real into that formula. The problem though is that life never works like that and they are often wrong by very large margins. Conservative predictions for a Romney landslide and that we would greeted with flowers in Iraq are 2 great examples of this.

    Common sense in the idea that in some cases using "taxpayer subsidies" that create viable jobs and stimulate spending at many times the subsidy is a good deal. In a weak economy is it better to pay a $1 milllion per month electric subsidy for Revere Copper who then pays hundreds of employees and creates hundreds of $millions in economic stimulation and generates tens of $millions in taxes- or is it better to do nothing, let them go out of business or move overseas and then have to pay the same $million in unemployment benefits?

    How is US unions coming together with big business and agreeing to lower their salary and benefit structure to make them more competitive and then creating US jobs not a great thing???. For you to use your extremely petty and irrelevant arguments to diminish this shows your bias and lack of regard for sustainable workable solutions that benefit the entire country.

    In addition, you as usual are completely oversimplifying and outright ignoring reality (because reality almost always conflicts with your ideology). The fact is that there are lots and lots of new jobs that are being created from companies that have relocated back to the US and aren't using subsidies and are manufacturing complete products from start to finish. Even if they weren't, would you rather have thousands of Americans being paid to reassemble products or to have that work remain in the foreign countries?

    As far as subsidies- there are extremely few businesses or industries in the US that don't receive some form of "taxpayer subsidy", some like oil and nuclear etc. run into the hundreds of $millions- the fact that you only selectively make this charge when it benefits your ideology is very telling.

    In regards to Green energy- A) There are tens of thousands of firms employing hundreds of thousands of people involved with green energy that have no links to crony capitalism B) Name a time there hasn't been crony capitalism- I for one would much rather have crony capitalism involved with energy technology that creates jobs, stimulates the economy and works us towards energy independence than crony capitalism that gets us into wars and is responsible for tens of thousands of deaths, massive "tax-payer expenditures" and a heightened terrorist risk.

    As to your questions regarding IT job growth estimates- A) Are you seriously asking if IT jobs pay well??? if so, here:

    ".....other jobs with average salaries of over $100,000 include consulting, IT auditing, software engineering, data architecture, and applications development. That all sounds extremely difficult to understand, but in reality, information technology is nothing more than using computers and software to organize, store, share, protect, and otherwise use data."

    "You can start in an IT job with nothing be a high school degree, and some $100k+ employees have just an associate or bachelor's degree. This is also a field where your employer will often pay for you to go back to school, earning a higher degree."

    "The technology industry field that is evolving right now is green technology. Even in an economically bad year, people are investing more and more money in new technology that will help save energy, cut emissions, and otherwise "go green." Technology also combines really well with other high-pay industries. For example, you can get into the medical technology industry or the media tech industry. Of course, the highest-pay technology jobs are often with the government, and there are no shortage of job openings. Don't let the technology industry scare you; it's a profitable and ever-changing world in which to work."
    http://www.100kjobfinder.com/tech-jobs.php

    The average high tech salary from this source is $68,000 with many opportunities to go quite a bit higher:
    http://www.simplyhired.com/a/salary/search/q-High+Tech

    This case sums everything up best of all. A loan and a $400,000 tax-credit from local government resulted in a tech company opening a $20 million data center in Akron, Ohio. The data center will employ 60 people with an average salary of $70,000. In the 2nd phase the company is looking at a neighboring building and 35 additional hires. http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/news/loc...oming-to-akron

    As far as the future growth to keep up with population growth- If people are willing to learn and increase their skills there will be way more than enough job opportunities to cover population growth from business IT alone- never mind medical IT,entertainment IT and a dozen or so other IT sections. The opportunities are endless and will only be limited by the limits in people's and the societies mindset. If enough people get stuck in fear based, limited thinking and cling to the old parameters, then much of that potential opportunity will be lost. The way it is looking though is that while some people are whining, complaining and proselytizing gloom and doom on internet forums, tens of thousands of others are already out there enjoying the many benefits that come with adapting to ever changing economic, technological and lifestyle dynamics.
    Last edited by jimboe7373; 12-30-2012 at 09:08 AM.

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