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Thread: Saving and Investing your income

  1. #26
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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    And the FED is now on record with its intentions to 'taper' off earlier money-printing policies ... which is likely to allow interest rates to rise across the board thus removing the 'premium' which high dividend stocks have recently enjoyed. Put another way, if it ( again ) becomes possible to earn 5% dividends from a future US treasury bond purchase involving very low loss risk, a dividend stock paying the same 5% would lose it's comparative yield advantage while retaining it's greater loss risk.
    Oh very good to know, I've been wanting to buy some bonds lately.

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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    ^^^ well, you'll need to wait until those higher interest rates actually arrive ... because with bonds the principal value drops as the interest rate rises.

    While it certainly doesn't qualify as a 'preservation of capital' investment, I have been watching Puerto Rican Muni bonds for a 'cheap' re-entry point ... because the interest rate rise / bond price decline on these bonds may have already 'run its course' ...


    (snip)(Reuters) - The price of Puerto Rico's newest bonds fell again on Monday, underperforming the wider municipal bond market to notch their lowest session-ending price since their debut a month ago.

    The bonds, maturing in July 2035 and sporting a coupon of 8 percent, last traded at 87.75 cents on the dollar, pushing the yield up to 9.33 percent. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

    Puerto Rico, mired in a lengthy recession and carrying a debt load in excess of $70 billion, sold $3.5 billion of bonds in March, raising much-needed cash to thwart a looming cash crunch.

    The bonds, which are rated as junk debt by the three major credit ratings agencies, enjoyed huge demand at the March 11 auction as hedge funds and other investors with strong appetites for risk flocked to their relatively high, tax-free yields. The commonwealth's bonds are triple tax-free - exempt from federal, state and local income taxes - meaning their coupon interest rate of 8 percent is the equivalent of 13.25 percent on a comparable fully taxable bond.

    In the past two weeks, however, they have weakened substantially.

    On Friday, they traded as low as 86 cents on an intraday basis following news that Puerto Rico had hired additional teams of restructuring experts.

    Since their debut at 93 cents on the dollar, the bonds' price has now fallen 5.25 cents, or 5.6 percent. Their yield has climbed 98 basis points from a Day 1 close of 8.35 percent."(snip)


    PR Muni Bonds are a highly 'speculative' investment, since there is a fair possibility that PR could easily default on future bond interest payments in the absence of a US federal gov't 'bailout'. But a 9.33% tax-free effective 'interest rate' arguably justifies some degree of loss risk.
    Last edited by Melonie; 04-15-2014 at 03:49 AM.

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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    Melonie ! Once in a blue moon you surprise me. Are you seriously considering investing in Puerto Rican bonds ? All I'm hearing are alarm bells and sirens despite the attractive yields. Detroit had high yields on its debt too. So did several other now bankrupt cities and counties. There is an assumption among some floating around out there that at some point Uncle Sam will bail out Puerto Rico. Really ? Not that I know of. There is no Federal obligation whatsoever.

    Under the "old" Bankruptcy Rules , bondholders would go to the head of the line in a municipal bankruptcy under Chapter 9. Puerto Rico afaik is NOT a municipality and there is no Bankruptcy provision for states. Yes, yes, I know P.R. is a commonwealth i.e. U.S. territory but NOT a state. Nobody knows for sure what would or could happen under some recent Federal court rulings. I really can't go into this particular aspect further thanks to the "zero tolerance " policy re: politics.

    Yes, the yield is certainly attractive but the island's economy is now on a Third World level and its fiscal situation is a disaster ( high debt , high spending and low revenues ).
    You do what you want but I wouldn't buy P.R. debt with YOUR money lol.

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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    ^^^ that's why I didn't elaborate ... other than to point out that the future fate of PR muni bonds is contingent on a ( highly likely ) US taxpayer 'bailout', thus the investment situation is arguably quite similar to Greek gov't bonds last year ( where courageous bond investors netted 8%+ returns thanks to the EU taxpayer 'bailout' ). But I clearly posted a disclaimer that PR bonds are about as far away from conservative 'preservation of wealth' investments as one can get !

    Also, the large moves in PR bond prices and effective interest rates makes them an ideal example to illustrate the market effect on original auction price vs current market price for the bond itself, as well as the market effect on original coupon interest rate versus effective interest rate yield. In response to the bond question posted above, investors who chose to buy into PR bonds in a rising interest rate environment wound up losing 5.25 cents on every dollar invested within a time frame of a couple of weeks !!! But investors who wait, until effective interest rates peak = market price of the bonds themselves bottom, may achieve some extremely nice returns on investment.
    Last edited by Melonie; 04-15-2014 at 07:47 AM.

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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    I appreciate that but I still wouldn't touch them. Frankly I don't understand the scramble in some quarters to buy new Greek debt. Each to their own.

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    As far as a bailout of P.R. debt ( and I am really tip toeing around this one thanks to the "you know what " policy ) I think that is highly unlikely. Puerto Ricans living on " La Isla " do NOT vote for U.S. senators, congressmen or for POTUS so where is any incentive for Congress to bail them out ?

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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    ^^^ you know that I'm not allowed to answer that !!!

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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ well, you'll need to wait until those higher interest rates actually arrive ... because with bonds the principal value drops as the interest rate rises.
    Yes. Buying bonds when interest rates are going to rise in the future usually doesn't work out well. That's why I've been staying away from them.

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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ you know that I'm not allowed to answer that !!!
    I know. I know. It was purely rhetorical.

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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post

    Again, please do not construe my own investment decisions as investment 'advice'. Do your own due diligence. After all, I'm just a 'dumb' blonde with big boobs ! But I did spend 10+ years sitting on the laps of Manhattan stockbrokers, bankers, lawyers, politicians etc. 'innocently' listening to them converse among themselves while they assumed the 'dumb' blonde with big boobs couldn't possibly understand what they were talking about !!!
    Love this Melonie

    You're very knowledgable! From reading your posts I assumed you had taken some kind of investment course/degree since you always seem to know exactly what you're talking about!

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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    and little wonder why she is so suspicious of bankers politicians etc......................

  12. #37
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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    ^^^ trust me I got a real world 'banking and investing' education in those VIP rooms that an MBA from Columbia wouldn't have been able to provide !!!

  13. #38
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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ trust me I got a real world 'banking and investing' education in those VIP rooms that an MBA from Columbia wouldn't have been able to provide !!!
    Was it all the first hand experience with trickle down economics ? Lol.

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    ^^^ there wasn't anything 'trickling down' during MY VIP's ! However, I can't speak for dancers in adjoining VIP rooms !

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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    ^^^ there wasn't anything 'trickling down' during MY VIP's ! However, I can't speak for dancers in adjoining VIP rooms !
    Lol. I know. I was just joshing with you.

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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    well the 'magic moment' may have just arrived ... with Puerto Rico bond prices falling off a cliff, thus ( federal and state tax free ) equivalent yields reaching into double digits !!! A good buying opportunity for a pure gamble investment, based on the premise that the US Treasury will be forced to guarantee these bonds against outright failure and/or the lawsuit being brought by Frankln Templeton and Oppenheimer Rochester to stop Puerto Rico from 'restucturing' certain muni bond debts being decided in favor of the investment firms ??


    from

    (snip)"Quietly behind the scenes and away from the exuberant stock market trading headlines of the mainstream media, Muni bond markets are in turmoil. Thanks to the 'shenanigans' in Puerto Rico - after lawmakers last month approved a bill allowing some public corporations to restructure debt - PR bonds have collapsed to record lows (and dragged a number of large Muni funds with them).

    As Bloomberg's Michelle Kaske reports,


    A Franklin Templeton Investments municipal-bond fund with the industry’s biggest allocation to Puerto Rico has sunk to the lowest in its 29-year history as prices on the struggling commonwealth’s debt set record lows.

    The price per share of the $300.4 million Franklin Double Tax-Free Income Fund fell to $9.28 yesterday, the lowest since its inception in April 1985. The drop follows Moody’s three-step downgrade of Puerto Rico’s GOs last week to B2, five levels below investment grade.

    Franklin’s fund directed about 69 percent of assets to Puerto Rico debt as of May 31, according to Franklin Templeton’s website.

    Puerto Rico securities have traded at distressed levels for almost a year. Prices on some of the self-governing U.S. territory’s bonds sank even more after lawmakers last month approved a bill allowing some public corporations to restructure debt. The island’s securities have dropped for nine straight days, the longest slide since December, S&P Dow Jones Indices show.

    Franklin Funds and Oppenheimer Rochester Funds are challenging the new law in a Puerto Rico court.



    The Franklin Bond fund "is essentially acting like a Puerto Rico fund."




    I'm viewing this from the perspective that Puerto Rico is America's 'Greece' ... with a similar compelling need for the US federal gov't ( i.e. US taxpayers ) to 'bail them out', and with bondholders who bought in at very low prices during the 'toxic' phase first earning very high yields and then earning nice capital gains as bond prices recover.

    Opinions ?
    Last edited by Melonie; 07-09-2014 at 12:19 PM.

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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    Actually dollar stores stocks are doing well. With Ibelieve dollar general or tree? I haven't checked in a few weeks as I've been busy redoing my living/ dining area and buying a car.

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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    Quote Originally Posted by michele11 View Post
    Actually dollar stores stocks are doing well. With Ibelieve dollar general or tree? I haven't checked in a few weeks as I've been busy redoing my living/ dining area and buying a car.
    I've also heard that Chipotle and Chipotle-style restaurants (higher-end-than-fast-food take out) are also yielding the most profit in the restaurant industry, so I'd imagine stock in those companies would be a good idea? I know nothing about investing though LOL

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    Actually dollar stores stocks are doing well
    This is true in terms of their stock valuations rising ... but it's attributable to possible Leveraged Buy Out activities rather than company profitability ...

    from

    (snip)"Family Dollar has seen sales decline as competing dollar stores such as Dollar General (DG_) and Dollar Tree (DLTR_) have seen sales increase. Family Dollar sales fell to $2.7 billion in the second quarter, according to its April earnings report. The number was $200 million lower than the same period a year ago. Earnings dropped to 80 cents vs. $1.21 per share in the second quarter of 2013.

    In response to the results, the company announced that it would lower prices on 1,000 basic items, close 370 underperforming stores and reduce its workforce. Family Dollar shares are down more than 8% since the beginning of the year.

    Despite the shareholder rights plan, most investors bet that Family Dollar would ultimately be acquired. The stock rose more than 15% in early trading Monday morning to around $68 per share. A Credit Suisse analyst said in a February note to investors that Walmart (WMT_) should acquire the company. (snip)

    ... thus the basis for yet another classic Wall St adage ... Buy the Rumor ( that the company was the possible target of an LBO ) and Sell the News ( that actual quarterly sales and earnings are both down ).


    A somewhat similar 'curve ball' situation applies to Chipotle as well ... from

    (snip)"With sales growing fast, Chipotle Mexican Grill's (CMG) investors drove up shares before they realized the first-quarter earnings miss would mean higher menu prices to offset costs. So investors, perhaps on concerns that customers might object, sold off.

    The Denver-based burrito restaurateur will begin hiking prices in the mid-single digits by the end of the current quarter, CFO Jack Hartung said on a conference call following Chipotle's Q1 earnings release Thursday.

    Uncertainty over how higher prices will impact Chipotle's business likely unsettled investors. The stock rose more than 6% intraday before reversing course to close down 6% to 519.61.

    The early stock boost was based on Chipotle's robust Q1 sales performance. Overall revenue rose 24% vs. a year earlier to $904.2 million, above consensus estimates for $873 million. It was the biggest sales gain in two years and continued a long run of double-digit increases ***

    However, rising costs for beef, avocados and cheese tamped down Chipotle's Q1 earnings, which came in at $2.64 a share. That was up from $2.35 a year earlier but below views for $2.86. The restaurant-level operating margin fell 40 basis points from the prior year to 25.9%.

    Retail beef prices in February reached a 27-year high at an average of $5.28 per pound, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Chipotle's own steak costs have climbed by about 25% since the end of 2013.

    Chipotle also said providing health care coverage to hourly employees could cost 1% of sales.(snip)

    ... thus 'dumb money' investors drove up Chipotle's stock price based solely on their wonderful headline increase in total sales volume. But the 'smart money' investors drove Chipotle's stock price right back down after digesting the numbers and discovering that Chipotle's future profit margin is under major assault ... due to both rapidly rising costs for their major 'inputs' like beef and cheese, as well as major new employee benefit costs they must absorb once the ACA mandate must be complied with. This is leading to an already announced increase in Chipotle's retail menu prices ... which is likely to put a damper on future sales growth.
    Last edited by Melonie; 07-10-2014 at 03:50 AM.

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    Default Re: Saving and Investing your income

    As for Puerto Rican debt , I would not buy it with Melonie's money ; or Eagle's ; or Jimboe's lol. I do have a few questions : First of all Melonie - Why do you keep referring to a "likely" or "probable" U.S. bailout of Puerto Rico ? Everything I've read says that Congress will NOT approve any bailout. Not of P.R. ; not of any fund heavily invested in their debt.
    Second - What effect , if any , will the recent Argentina vs. hedge fund decisions have on any Puerto Rican debt restructuring ? According to precedent , P.R. will NOT be able to screw their bondholders. To which I say : GOOD ! btw.
    Third - What tells you that Puerto Rico will not be a chronic basket case ; a 3rd World economy ? Afaik there is almost zero appetite on La Isla for the serious reforms that are necessary for them to even attempt to recover.

    I get the risk - reward analysis that you are apparently arguing for in deciding whether or not to speculate in P.R. debt. To me, that is exactly what it is speculation as opposed to investing.

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    ^^^ as I posted earlier, any money directed toward Puerto Rico bond / fund purchases would be a 'pure gamble' ... based on changes which would take place over the course of the next year at most.

    Totally agreed that P.R. is and will likely remain an economic 'basket case'. However, in terms of this speculative investment, that's neither here nor there. P.R. really has just one high demand 'export product' ... tax shelters for 'rich' Americans who don't live in P.R. If those 'rich' American P.R. bondholders, and the Wall St banks and mutual funds who deal in those P.R bonds, wind up taking huge losses, it would have lots of unintended consequences ...

    - some of those 'rich' Americans are also big time political contributors who WILL be listened to

    - If 'rich' Americans sell out of P.R. bonds, that will leave the island gov't with no way to borrow additional money ... thus no means of affording to provide future social services for it's predominantly 'officially' poor population. And, like Greece, P.R. citizens have the right to relocate to adjacent countries ( well, in this case, mainland US states ) which must provide them social services. Thus those nearby mainland US states will ALSO be listened to

    ... either way, this points to the high probability of a US federal 'bailout'.

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    Hmmmm. Yeah , BUT when Detroit , Stockton et. al. went belly up there was no Federal bail - out. When California came hat in hand to D.C. , Obama said : " NO".
    The residents of those places were free to relocate just as are Puerto Ricans.
    The holders of the debt in those "basket cases" were politically active.
    If there is a bail-out then where or where is any possible incentive for Puerto Rico to do those necessary and painful things that it must do to restore its economy ?

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    ^^^ again the difference with Puerto Rico is that, unlike the individual states who only had individual state resident bond investors seeking to legally avoid federal plus state taxes by purchasing muni bonds issued by their state of residence, Puerto Rico bonds are exempt from state taxes in ALL US states. Thus there are far more 'rich' bondholders from all across the USA who will potentially benefit from a bailout. Also, without saying too much along these lines, very few 'rich' Puerto Ricans will benefit from a bailout ( unlike California, Illinois, Michigan et al ), while lots of 'poor' Puerto Ricans belonging to a particular ethnic group that is actively being courted by both sides of the aisle in Washington would benefit ... with hope that their relatives in the 50 states will express that appreciation in the future.

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    It's possible but with a Republican House ? With a POTUS ( so far ) averse to muni and state bailouts ? It's not something I'd want to bet my money on.

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    Hmmm. I have read some interesting pieces lately about Puerto Rico's situation. Errol Louis wrote a very good one that was in the N.Y. Daily News last week and gave A rationale for a Federal bailout while admitting that it was highly unlikely. A BIG part of the blame for Puerto Rico's current mess is because of changes to the U.S. Corporate Tax Code under Clinton. It used to be that U.S. corporations LOVED to have a heavy presence in Puerto Rico because their profits received VERY favorable tax treatment.
    Clinton and the Congress changed that in the 90's so corporations started shutting down and moving out. That created greater demand for welfare by decreasing jobs and tax revenues declined as a result. Throw in corruption , incompetence and excessive borrowing ( at ridiculous interest rates ) and we have a basket case.

    Will they change the Tax Code back ? I express no opinion thanks to the You know What Policy. Should they ? I will only say that strictly from a moral pov they should since that played a huge role in creating the current mess. Beyond that I have to take a dive to try and remain in compliance.

    Louis and others have made the assumption that Puerto Rico is like a state and thus cannot go bankrupt. Only it is NOT a state. Afaik the Bankruptcy Code is silent as to Commonwealths and other U.S. Territories like Samoa , Guam and The Virgin Islands. If Puerto Rico does try bankruptcy they can TRY to use Chapter 9 like a City. If they get tossed out they can ask for special legislation for some sort of fast-track restructuring as was contemplated for Chrysler and GM.

    With so much uncertainty and so many aspects unclear there is even less reason to buy P.R. debt at this time.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 07-22-2014 at 07:34 AM.

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