^^^ indeed there is a contingent of 'talking heads' who make that prediction. But their math draws questions when 2 million people are immigrating to the USA each year, when US companies are adding robots and automatic machinery at a record pace, etc. ... from
http://www.robotics.org/content-deta...ontent_id/4648
(snip)Ann Arbor, Michigan – Following a strong year in 2012, the North American robotics market recorded its best year ever in 2013 in terms of robot shipments, according to new statistics from Robotic Industries Association (RIA), the industry’s trade group.
A total of 22,591 robots valued at $1.39 billion were shipped to companies in North America in 2013, beating the previous record of 20,328 robots valued at $1.29 billion shipped in 2012. These new records for robotic shipments represent growth of 11% in units and seven percent in dollars.(snip)
Given that one robot or automatic machine ( with automatic machines vastly outnumbering the 22,600 actual 'robots' added by US companies last year ) can effectively replace multiple human jobs, the effect of this 'second wave' of automation is actually unknown at this point. But it certainly reduces present and future demand for US labor.
... and on the 'flip side' , when one looks past massaged and cherry-picked statistics, 'real' jobs data is a bit surprising. Per the BLS, total US non-farm payroll employment in 2000 was 130.8 million people. The most recent July 2014 BLS report shows total US non-farm payroll employment at 139 million people. Thus 8 million jobs were added during that period. But during that period, the US population went from 282 million to 319 million. Thus 37 million additional American residents got to 'fight' over 8 million additional jobs.
In reality, the number is somewhat less given that newly born Americans and some number of new immigrants have yet to reach 'working age'. But that means that when they DO reach 'working age', they will instantly add to the supply of available US labor without an associated population increase. Again, this certainly doesn't appear to represent a 'tightening' of US labor supply. And it goes without saying that reaching 'working age' also means reaching 'voting' age.
Yes, granted that more and more Americans are entering the arena of 'self-employment', which arguably adds jobs without adding payroll employment. But on the other side of that is the shrinking number of full time jobs, versus the rapidly expanding number of part time jobs. I'll leave the issue as a 'maybe' ... given that we really won't find out for another decade.
However, in the shorter term, there's no question that America has an over-supply of available labor. But, as touched on earlier in this thread, there in fact may be a shortage of 'WILLING' labor !!! While the authors' 'theory' claims that immigrants / social welfare benefit recipients have, on average, lower IQ's, that certainly doesn't mean that they can't do some basic algebra and figure out that taking a $10 an hour unskilled job, but losing eligibility for medicaid, subsidized rent, subsidized utilities, SSI disability etc. leaves them 'worse off' by working than if they 'avoid' a job offer. And on the other end of the skills scale, some number of unemployed US skilled labor and/or 'professionals' may not be 'willing' to accept a replacement job offer - with a pay rate driven down by H1-B skilled immigrants, with after hours / travel requirements etc. which their previously eliminated job did not carry - versus collecting extended unemployment benefits and then filing for SSI disability ( or taking early retirement ).
Bookmarks