This issue has been the topic of speculation in other Forums. However, I discovered that one analyst actually maintains an 'Economic Vice' index.
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(snip)Vice spending is one of the most seldom used, but surprisingly accurate leading gauges of consumer strength and the economy. Everyone knows that when consumers have more money in hand, they spend it on fun and luxury goods. That includes gambling, prostitutes, booze and narcotics. Like any other luxury good, vice spending is a leading indicator: demand is quick to pick up when times are good and turns down fast when belt-tightening is the order of the day.(snip)
(snip)The Moneyball Economics Vice Index is the first index that quantifies these forms of spending. It has been shown to accurately lead consumer spending by at least two months. Right now, it is showing evidence of subdued consumer spending over the past few months.
In fact, the Index just slipped to 100. A figure below 100 means that consumer spending is actually contracting. No doubt a lot of the recent sluggishness is weather related, but the trend is undeniable: consumers are spending less on the fun stuff, and that means more belt-tightening is about to occur.
(snip)Next month will be interesting to watch, by which point we’ll be past any weather-related issues that might be putting a damper on playtime. Nothing says pent-up demand like vice spending.
If the Index continues to signal a pullback in spending is indeed forecast, then that’s a sign that the broader economy is poised to slow. It’s time to get defensive with stock portfolios and re-balance closer to the Early Bear investments like consumer non-cyclicals, healthcare and utilities.
Hookernomics: Touring Escorts An Ominous Sign
When Van Halen goes on tour, it’s to greet the fans and boost the paycheck. Similarly, when an escort goes on tour, it’s to press the flesh and get some money. Except, in the business of vice, escorts go touring because the local waters have been fished out.
There are several key selling points in the Hookernomics business model which traveling escorts hope to capitalize on:
•Novelty: “New and Improved” is a standard consumer lure, and it fits the escorting business as much as the toothpaste business.
•Limited Availability: An escort who announces that they are “visiting and in town for just a few days” is straightforward Sales 101. Create a sense of urgency and exclusiveness.
Tours are an expensive proposition (ahem) for an escort and a general pain in the ass. Travel time, hotels, transportation fees, dining out – costs add up fast. Also the tour is financially risky. There’s no guarantees of profit, which means that the alternative – staying put and fishing local waters – must be even worse. Simply put, escorts go on tour when the phones aren’t ringing enough.
In a sign of slower business conditions, more escorts have gone on tour recently in their efforts to drum up new customers in untapped markets. Not a surge like in 2008, but still a noticeable uptick. It’s more a yellow light than a red light; one-step removed from being an example of desperate times calling for desperate measures.(snip)




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