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Thread: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

  1. #126
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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Would you please call AOC and the other ultra-libs in the N.Y. Congressional delegation and tell them that ? They already have their knives out and protest signs printed up to oppose a gas fired back up electrical generator in Queens. Unlike you , AOC et.al. think it is perfectly alright to put all their eggs in the solar and wind baskets with no back-up generating capacity.
    Was AOC actually protesting against this specific power plant?

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    YES ! She doesn't get that with Indian Point shut down the electricity has to come from somewhere. One reactor shut down in 2020 and the other is being shut down this year. That creates a hole of 13% in generation that has to be made up from other sources. Right now, about 40% of N.Y.'s electrical power comes from natural gas. The rest comes from hydro , solar and wind. The back up plant that AOC calls "dirty" will NOT burn coal or oil but natural gas. The cleanest burning of all fossil fuels and only to back up solar and wind generators that haven't even been built yet. Currently only 7% of N.Y.'s power comes from wind, solar and biomass.

    This is one of many examples of AOC's knee jerk reactions to various issues and her breathtaking ignorance .
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 03-12-2021 at 10:16 AM.
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    Teddy Roosevelt

  3. #128
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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    I told you so. Oil prices and pump prices keep going up and up. At least summer is coming before home heating oil goes through the roof.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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  5. #129
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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by kamiliam View Post
    I truly don’t understand why we have to act like green energy is a legitimate partisan issue. Not so much here but in lots of discourse. Like why did fox and the blogs have to attack green energy for no reason? Everything was messed up in Texas, wind turbines the least of them all. But like everyone can make money on this...as I have mentioned the oil companies are the ones setting up the green energy.

    There is crap infrastructure everywhere, from sea to shining sea; that’s why I personally would like some federal standards for that. Those in power are ultimately to blame for the useless denial of climate change and how it will overwhelm underprepared systems. But man I just want those being hurt like this to get some relief and a system they can count on.
    Why? Present bias, greed, and power. The brain actually filters out information automatically. The same way addicts can say they don’t have a drug problem even as their whole life crumbles. The only difference is these people have enough money and power to avoid consequences. One could say they are addicted to money. I would agree. I think some of them know and just don’t care, but some of them are so deluded they don’t understand the gravity of their harmful words and actions.

    I would say we as a species aren’t evolving and I wonder if we will cause are own extinction? I hope not. If these rich billionaires and politicians think they can stay safe from diseases and climate change they are WRONG.

    This isn’t the first time in history this has happened, but the stakes are much higher than any crisis we have ever faced.

    We need to start living from our hearts and our inner wisdom.

    I think “the people” want change and can handle it; it’s the people in power holding us back.

    It’s a partisan issue because people can’t think for themselves. We don’t have two parties that act as counter balances. We have a toxic political system and it’s killing us.

    Yes it’s very unfortunate that those on the bottom will suffer more.
    Last edited by moneybags; 03-19-2021 at 06:48 PM.
    Focus more on what you want than on what you donít want

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  7. #130
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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by moneybags View Post
    Why? Present bias, greed, and power. The brain actually filters out information automatically. The same way addicts can say they don’t have a drug problem even as their whole life crumbles. The only difference is these people have enough money and power to avoid consequences. One could say they are addicted to money. I would agree. I think some of them know and just don’t care, but some of them are so deluded they don’t understand the gravity of their harmful words and actions.

    I would say we as a species aren’t evolving and I wonder if we will cause are own extinction? I hope not. If these rich billionaires and politicians think they can stay safe from diseases and climate change they are WRONG.

    This isn’t the first time in history this has happened, but the stakes are much higher than any crisis we have ever faced.

    We need to start living from our hearts and our inner wisdom.

    I think “the people” want change and can handle it; it’s the people in power holding us back.

    It’s a partisan issue because people can’t think for themselves. We don’t have two parties that act as counter balances. We have a toxic political system and it’s killing us.

    Yes it’s very unfortunate that those on the bottom will suffer more.
    I understand what you are saying but "living from our hearts " ? Sounds like feelings over facts to me. Feel free to correct me if you meant something else.

    Your last point is the most true imho. The people at the bottom ALWAYS suffer the most. And are suffering now from job losses and higher energy prices.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Iowa is now getting close to 60% of their energy from wind, and they get a lot more snow and freezing weather than Texas. It probably won't be too long before they get to 100%.

    https://businessrecord.com/Content/D...s/-3/248/93057

  9. #132
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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    That's fine and dandy BUT there are other wind projects that are highly questionable. Last week the Biden Administration announced "bold action " that will "catalyze " the installation of 30,000 megawatts of offshore wind generated electrical power by 2030. They touted the usual claims of corollary benefits like "good paying union jobs" and strengthened domestic supply. What they left out was any mention of prices and ratepayers. Meaning it is a lousy deal for consumers. As some of these projects are. Assuming it actually gets built ( a number of these wind schemes ended up throwing away gobs of money with no return ) the juice produced will cost billions more than nuclear or gas generated power. With microscopic environmental benefit , if any.

    A number of independent analysts ( like Jesse Ausubel of Rockefeller University and Robert Bryce ) have pointed out the following :
    1. Marine construction is VERY expensive. All the material has to be shipped offshore as do the workers. Days lost to weather delays are more than double compared to land based construction ( e.g. high winds mean high waves ). Builder's risk and worker's comp insurance are much more expensive for these type projects coupled with New York's Labor Law ( and other similar state statutes ) plus the Jones Act.
    2. Such projects create hazards to navigation , marine mammals and fisheries.
    3. The energy produced is NOT cost competitive to nuclear and natural gas. Far from it. The price hikes will be felt most by low and middle class consumers in the Northeast where they are already paying some if the highest electric rates in the country. The U.S. Energy Dept. admits that offshore wind is one of the most expensive forms of generating electricity. They estimate that in 2026 it will cost $121 to generate one megawatt hour. That is almost double the cost of nuclear ( $63) and more than triple the cost of using natural gas ( $37). Without Federal tax credits the actual cost of these type of wind projects is really as much as $150 per megawatt hour. Assuming 50% usage of the turbines they will generate about 131 million megawatts per year. At $ 121 per megawatt hour that will cost $15.9 billion per year. That is WITH Federal tax credits and other subsidies. The same amount of power generated by advanced nuclear would cost $8.3 billion and if natural gas is used it will cost about $4.8 billion. The cost differences are obvious.
    4. Ironically the biggest beneficiaries of the aforementioned subsidies and tax credits will be foreign corporations like BP , Equinor and Orsted.

    I support wind power . Where it makes sense. The reason these offshore projects are proposed is to avoid ruining the view of millionaire owners of beachfront properties. Remember the demise of "Cape Wind" off Cape Cod ? For a number of reasons these offshore projects are not cost effective. Lower income ratepayers will have to bear the costs so that the Super Rich will feel better about carbon emissions and still enjoy the view from their bay windows.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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  11. #133
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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Offshore wind turbines are a fairly new technology, especially in the US. As the technology improves and we get better at building them, the costs will go down. The International Energy Agency forecasts the price of electricity from offshore wind turbines will drop by 60% within about 20 years.

    https://fortune.com/2019/10/28/offsh...gy-renewables/

    It's my guess that the estimates from the analysts you posted, comparing the cost of electricity from new offshore wind turbines to the cost of electricity from nuclear power, are basing their figures on the cost of nuclear energy on 40 or 50 year old nuclear power plants, where the capital costs have been paid off. If we were to compare the estimated price of electricity from a new offshore wind farm to the estimated cost of electricity from a new nuclear power plant, there probably wouldn't be much difference, and electricity from a new nuclear power plant might even be more expensive. Like offshore wind turbines, we currently don't have much experience building nuclear power plants, since we haven't been building them for decades. The one nuclear power plant that is currently being built in GA was estimated to cost $14 billion at the time the construction began. Since then, the cost has increased to $25 billion, and the VP of engineering said it may increase by another $1 billion or more, depending on how far the completion dates slip beyond the current schedule.

    https://www.augustachronicle.com/sto...mers/43075909/

    If we want zero emission energy over the long-term, offshore and onshore wind and solar energy, along with battery storage is probably the best solution. They're already rapidly growing. As I mentioned before, Iowa is getting close to 60% of their energy from wind, and Texas is at 23%. Here's one analyst who is projecting that by 2030, all of our electricity will be coming from wind, solar, and battery storage:

    Last edited by eagle2; 04-13-2021 at 01:54 AM.

  12. #134
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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    I am very sorry Eagle but a lot of what you posted is wishful thinking.
    1. Just how do you think technological advancement will overcome the vagaries of oceanic weather ? They won't. I am not trying to be insulting so I will assume you know about Nor'Easters , hurricanes , tropical storms etc. I am all for wind turbines. I just think it is much more cost effective to build them on dry land.
    2. The nuclear power costs were taken from costs of nuclear worldwide. France gets 80% of its power from nuclear with zero serious accidents. They also recycle the waste as much as possible and that which they can't they encase in black glass and store underwater.
    3. Cost overruns are the bane of almost all U.S. construction. Worse in the Northeast but known in other parts of the U.S. as well. Projects like off-shore wind are guaranteed to cost far more than planned . See my Point 1 supra for just ONE reason.
    4. You mention one nagging problem with alternative energy generation : battery storage. At present we have no practical way to store the electricity produced. If I'm not mistaken we can store , at most , about 2 hours worth of electrical power. Ask the folks in Texas about the impact of the inability to store power for cold and icy days. Nuclear and gas plants can be tapered down during low use and ramped up when demand is higher. Wind ? Depends if it's blowing or NOT . Solar ? Even if the sun is shining it produces what it does and there's no way to rev it up higher.
    5. All of this alternative energy while mostly well intentioned ignores the salient fact that the U.S. is NOT the problem. Our carbon emissions go down every year. China, India , Brazil and other industrialized and industrializing countries produce far more carbon than we do. And Brazil and other countries in Asia , Africa and South America are destroying jungle and forests that generate Oxygen and suck up CO2. THAT is where we need to focus much more attention and effort. Please, PLEASE do not tell me about Chinese Green Energy programs. Like many things in China it is little more than window dressing. They still burn more coal than any other country by far.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Denmark's offshore wind turbines are able to withstand the oceanic weather in the North Sea, which is probably just as bad, or worse, than anything off the US coast. The US is able to build oil rigs that can withstand oceanic weather. Offshore wind is more reliable than onshore wind, and offshore turbines don't take up any land. In Texas or Iowa, land for wind turbines isn't very expensive, but it is in cities like New York, Boston, and San Francisco.

    You can't base the cost of nuclear energy in the US on what it cost in other countries, because other countries can build and run nuclear power plants for a lot less than the US can. This is especially true with China.

    Tesla is building a battery storage unit in California that will have the capacity to power approximately 300,000 California homes for four hours.

    https://e360.yale.edu/features/in-bo...is-on-the-rise

    Battery capacity has been increasing significantly from one year to the next. A battery storage unit built 5 to 10 years from now will be able to store a lot more energy than one built today. The problem in TX wasn't their inability to store power. It was their inability to operate their power plants and grid in freezing weather.

    The US is a major part of the problem with carbon emissions. The US produces more carbon than India and Brazil combined, and on a per-capita basis, a lot more than China.

    https://www.investopedia.com/article...ioxide-co2.asp

    China is the world leader in wind and solar power, and electric vehicles, especially electric buses.

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Fine. If you want to believe some of that malarkey then move to China. Write if you get work and tell us how you like it lol. Just kidding. Just kidding.

    There is some sort of disconnect in China if they are really doing all those Green projects and yet the air in their major cities is unbreathable.

    300,000 homes for four hours. Then what ? I mentioned Texas because they had no way to store all their wind generated power. You and I have previously discussed their short-sighted and foolish failure to winterize their turbines.

    What is the COST of Danish offshore wind compared to nuclear or natural gas ? I am sure the Danes are well aware of what
    the North and Baltic Seas require .But that is not the issue. It is getting them built offshore in the first place. THAT is where the extra cost and expense comes from.

    New York has plenty of places for wind farms. We have empty abandoned islands and empty piers just to name two. There are a few turbines in such places now.

    The U.S. keeps adding more and more electric vehicles and our carbon output has been going DOWN every year for the last 20 years. We are NOT the problem . If we shut off every toaster , blender, hair dryer and other appliances plus all the lights and parked all of our vehicles it would hardly make a dent in the world's carbon production. It is not just carbon production but deforestation and desertification that are big parts of the problem.

    We CAN build nuclear plants if we streamline permitting and regulation.
    A
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    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    China is increasing their use of wind, solar, and nuclear energy, and electric vehicles faster then any other country. They're also building more coal power plants than any other country. Think of all of the power plants and automobiles the US was building and producing during the first half of the twentieth century. Then remember that China has close to ten times as many people as we did back then.

    It's true offshore wind turbines cost more than onshore turbines, but there are advantages to offshore wind turbines as well.

    From:
    https://www.americangeosciences.org/...ore-wind-farms
    Offshore wind speeds tend to be faster than on land.1 Small increases in wind speed yield large increases in energy production: a turbine in a 15-mph wind can generate twice as much energy as a turbine in a 12-mph wind. Faster wind speeds offshore mean much more energy can be generated.

    Offshore wind speeds tend to be steadier than on land.1 A steadier supply of wind means a more reliable source of energy.
    I'm not an engineer with experience in building wind turbines, so I'm not in a position to do a cost/benefit analysis, but considering how many countries are building offshore wind turbines, a lot of people in the industry think the additional costs for the added benefits are worth it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offsho...wer_by_country


    The same arguments that you're making against offshore wind turbines can be made about offshore oil rigs. Do you think we should stop drilling for oil offshore, since it's a lot cheaper to drill for oil on land?

    Carbon emissions aren't the only problem caused by burning fossil fuel. Burning fossil fuel also releases many other pollutants in the air, which can cause cancer and respiratory problems.

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Offshore oil rigs do not have to run cables to land to carry electricity. One drilling rig is a lot simpler to build than hundreds of wind turbines. I am not saying that we ought never to build them offshore. Just that building them on dry land near or next to the water is much more cost effective.

    I would argue that China cancels out its own carbon reduction from wind, solar and nuclear ( and hydropower btw) with all their use of coal. Which you conceded.

    I differentiate between burning natural gas and using coal and oil. The pollution from the former is minimal.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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