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Thread: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    That's RIGHT ! If you like car crashes now just wait until the vehicles are airborne.
    They will most likely have autopilot.

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  3. #27
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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by slowpoke View Post
    Will we have flying 18 wheelers?
    No. They'll be using rotors, not wheels.

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    We won't see any of this in our lifetimes. In fact, our kids probably won't see it either. We are utterly lacking in both the infrastructure and technology to achieve this.
    We'll most likely be seeing limited use of flying taxis this decade, but it will probably be many decades before they're widely used. I'm sure that by the end of this century, they'll be as widely used as cars are today.

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    This statement very much includes powering our electric grid from solar and wind. The inherent problem with wind and solar is that they are not reliable and consistent and we are not remotely close to having the battery technology to store enough during good times to hold us over during the bad ones.

    California can't even meet it's absurd mandate of 33% of its power coming from renewables without rolling blackouts that can last up to a day or more. In fact, PG&E is now being forced to buy more of its electricity on an emergency basis from out-of-state coal fired plants, LMAO, when it can get it at all. And Californians are paying a steep price for this mandate in terms of electric rates and planned blackouts. It's like living in Venezuela, lol.

    It will be many decades before fossil fuels go away. Indeed natural gas is actually gaining an increasing share of the energy production market because it burns cleaner than coal and oil, but is much more consistent than wind or solar. Except of course in CA.
    We do have the battery technology to store energy for use in down times. Australia is already using a massive battery combined with wind, to provide energy.



    In Texas, from 2010 - 2019, wind power has gone from providing 6% of electricity to 17%.

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Australia is a small island nation with more reliable wind, therefore requiring less battery storage capacity, and even it hasn't achieved above 21% of its total power from renewables. Nobody said that we don't have batteries. We just don't have cost effective batteries that have enough capacity to store enough electricity to power places that are less windy, especially in a country as large and diverse as the United States. Look what happened when CA tried to make it to a mere 33%.

    Smarter utilities are trying to expand their renewables while using natural gas as a back up when the wind or sun are not providing enough juice, especially in places with less of one or both. But even those utilities can only go so far because the technology is not nearly advanced enough to be cost effective.

    We have a stunningly long way to go before fossil fuels are a thing of the past.

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    I agree it's going to be a long time before fossil fuels are completely replaced by renewables. Natural gas will continue to be our main source for generating electricity for some time, but the use of wind and solar will continue to increase. Approximately 10% of our power comes from wind and solar, which is pretty significant, but it will probably take another 20 years before fossil fuels are completely replaced.

    https://www.renewableenergyworld.com...he-us-in-2019/

    The same for gas-powered cars.

    California is also building massive batteries for energy storage.

    https://www.powermag.com/worlds-larg...in-california/

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    No. They'll be using rotors, not wheels.
    Will they be electric?

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Interestingly you can build a wind electric generator and make a profit without ever producing a single volt of electricity. Sale of carbon credits and other tax dodges.


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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Rotflmao. I'd love to live next door to the Jetsons.
    Judy Jetson was pretty hot.

    Last edited by slowpoke; 01-27-2021 at 11:46 AM. Reason: Typo corrected.

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  14. #34
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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    They will most likely have autopilot.
    Like the 737 MAX stall warning/stick pusher that kept diving the planes into the ground? The one pilots could not override?
    Last edited by slowpoke; 01-27-2021 at 11:44 AM. Reason: correction

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by slowpoke View Post
    Like the 767 MAX stall warning/stick pusher that kept diving the planes into the ground? The one pilots could not override?
    It was the 737 MAX. There were design flaws in the aircraft that Boeing hid from pilots and regulators.

    https://www.business-standard.com/ar...1602119_1.html

    Airbus airliners use computerized fly-by-wire to control the aircraft, and there hasn't been a failure in the US in more than 10 years. The Boeing 777 uses computerized fly-by-wire and has had one crash in more than 20 years, and it hasn't been determined if the aircraft was the cause, or if it was due to the pilot. Over the past 10 years, I don't think that even a single person has died in a jet airliner accident in the US. Hundreds of thousands of people have died in auto accidents. There's been far more people who died from firearms accidents than from jet airliner accidents over the past 10 years in the US.

    Tesla vehicles have limited autopilot, and according to Tesla, on average, there has been one accident per 3 million miles driven, with autopilot engaged in their vehicles. With humans, the average is, one accident per 498,000 miles driven.

    These are all based on current technology. Computers will be far more advanced and capable in 10 - 20 years.

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by slowpoke View Post
    Will they be electric?
    Most likely. All of the current ones that I know of are electric.

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    We probably already have autopilot technology that can be used. We've had autopilot technology for decades, that could guide a cruise missile to a building 1,000 miles away from where it was launched, at 600 mph at treetop level. Automatically guiding a drone carrying a person or people to a destination 50 miles away at 100 mph should be a lot easier. The only difference is, you would land in front of the building or on the roof, instead of crashing into it.

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    Approximately 10% of our power comes from wind and solar, which is pretty significant, but it will probably take another 20 years before fossil fuels are completely replaced.
    I suspect that 20 years is very optimistic. The expansion into renewables is going to be linear - at best - rather than exponential. The problem is the cost and capacity limits of the batteries, which must be replaced periodically. We are not going to see widespread adoption until they become much cheaper and able to store more. The author of your article was probably overly optimistic about the cost of batteries coming down a lot as they require rare earth minerals controlled by a handful of players. It's bad enough now that the batteries we DO use were provided courtesy of African child labor, something which will not be able to continue forever.

    We will hit a ceiling as to how much additional expense we can pass on to consumers - CA, NY, CT and HI, among others, are already pounding electric customers as it is. IMHO what we really need to make this feasible in the medium term is a breakthrough in battery technology that moves us to something more effective and cheaper than the lithium batteries that we are using today.

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by slowpoke View Post
    Judy Jeston was pretty hot.

    Ooooh. You read my mind.
    Btw it's JETSON. I also like Astro. What a nice dog.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    There are already working models. Dubai is planning to start an air taxi service in the next few years and Uber wants to have flying taxis available for the 2028 Olympics.

    And how much are these things going to cost ? Most people can't afford an electric car as it is.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    The other shoe just dropped. Biden has signed an Executive Order halting new oil and gas leases. He also wants all current leases "reevaluated" whatever that is supposed to mean.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    The other shoe just dropped. Biden has signed an Executive Order halting new oil and gas leases. He also wants all current leases "reevaluated" whatever that is supposed to mean.

    It's a blessing in disguise, trust me.

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    And how much are these things going to cost ? Most people can't afford an electric car as it is.
    They'll mostly be used as taxis, rather than people buying one for their own personal use. In Dubai, the plan is to use them to transport tourists from the airport to their hotel and back. Lilium estimates it will cost $70 to transport a person from Manhattan to JFK Airport in one of their vehicles. They're looking to launch commercial flights in 2025.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/lili...ride-cost.html

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    I suspect that 20 years is very optimistic. The expansion into renewables is going to be linear - at best - rather than exponential. The problem is the cost and capacity limits of the batteries, which must be replaced periodically. We are not going to see widespread adoption until they become much cheaper and able to store more. The author of your article was probably overly optimistic about the cost of batteries coming down a lot as they require rare earth minerals controlled by a handful of players. It's bad enough now that the batteries we DO use were provided courtesy of African child labor, something which will not be able to continue forever.

    We will hit a ceiling as to how much additional expense we can pass on to consumers - CA, NY, CT and HI, among others, are already pounding electric customers as it is. IMHO what we really need to make this feasible in the medium term is a breakthrough in battery technology that moves us to something more effective and cheaper than the lithium batteries that we are using today.
    The expansion will most likely be exponential, as the cost of wind, solar, and batteries decline, more individuals and utilities will buy them, and as demand increases, economies of scale will bring down prices down even further. In addition, as wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries become more efficient, installing new ones will generate and store more power than installing the same amount today.

    The cost of lithium batteries has fallen dramatically over the years, from $6,745/kWh in 1995 to $522/kWh for consumer electronics, and from $1,182/kWh in 2010 to $156/kWh in 2019 for electric vehicles.

    https://www.iea.org/data-and-statist...rice-1995-2019


    Tesla and other battery manufacturers are coming out with cobalt-free batteries, which will bring battery cost down further, and eliminate the need to purchase cobalt from countries with poor human rights records that use child labor.

    https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/2...nickel-ev-cost

    High electric bills will give households more incentive to purchase solar panels and battery packs. Also, as the cost of wind and solar declines, it will bring utility costs down. In many places, wind and solar power now cost less than power from coal.
    Last edited by eagle2; 01-28-2021 at 12:56 AM.

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    The other shoe just dropped. Biden has signed an Executive Order halting new oil and gas leases. He also wants all current leases "reevaluated" whatever that is supposed to mean.
    Halting them on federal property. This will be good news for everyone else.

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by slowpoke View Post
    Halting them on federal property. This will be good news for everyone else.

    Indeed.

    ////People worry about all the wrong things these days......

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    And how much are these things going to cost ? Most people can't afford an electric car as it is.
    I'll be the first one! I'll take 2 electric flying cars, and one luxury fly car ...... Charge it to Eric's tab lol!

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  35. #48
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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by slowpoke View Post
    Halting them on federal property. This will be good news for everyone else.
    That's right. The Russians, Iranians and Venezuelans are jumping for joy.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    The expansion will most likely be exponential, as the cost of wind, solar, and batteries decline, more individuals and utilities will buy them, and as demand increases, economies of scale will bring down prices down even further. In addition, as wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries become more efficient, installing new ones will generate and store more power than installing the same amount today.

    The cost of lithium batteries has fallen dramatically over the years, from $6,745/kWh in 1995 to $522/kWh for consumer electronics, and from $1,182/kWh in 2010 to $156/kWh in 2019 for electric vehicles.

    https://www.iea.org/data-and-statist...rice-1995-2019


    Tesla and other battery manufacturers are coming out with cobalt-free batteries, which will bring battery cost down further, and eliminate the need to purchase cobalt from countries with poor human rights records that use child labor.

    https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/2...nickel-ev-cost

    High electric bills will give households more incentive to purchase solar panels and battery packs. Also, as the cost of wind and solar declines, it will bring utility costs down. In many places, wind and solar power now cost less than power from coal.
    And those higher electric bills will result from what ? Higher costs for oil and gas.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    They'll mostly be used as taxis, rather than people buying one for their own personal use. In Dubai, the plan is to use them to transport tourists from the airport to their hotel and back. Lilium estimates it will cost $70 to transport a person from Manhattan to JFK Airport in one of their vehicles. They're looking to launch commercial flights in 2025.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/13/lili...ride-cost.html
    Fine. Who is going to buy the taxis ?
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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