Oil Prices - Deja vu all over again

[eagle2]

It is a bad idea to rely on technology that only works when you do not need it.

It's not just wind power that's been affected by the freezing weather. All sources of electricity in TX have been affected. The problem isn't wind power. It's that wind turbines in Texas weren't winterized for the freezing weather.

From:
https://www.cbs58.com/news/texas-pro...nt-dark-anyway

Critics of renewable energy have pointed out that wind turbines have frozen or needed to be shut down due to the extreme weather.

And that is significant because almost a quarter (23%) of the power in Texas last year was generated by wind power, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Even though other places with colder weather (like Iowa and Denmark) rely on wind for even larger shares of power, experts said the turbines in Texas were not winterized for the unexpected freeze.

But this is not just about wind turbines going down. Natural gas and coal-fired power plants need water to stay online. Yet those water facilities froze in the cold temperatures and others lost access to the electricity they require to operate.

"The ability of some companies that generate the power has been frozen. This includes the natural gas & coal generators," Texas Governor Greg Abbott wrote on Twitter.

And that's an even bigger deal to Texas than frozen wind turbines because combined cycle natural gas (40%) and coal (18%) generated more than half of the state's power in 2020, according to ERCOT.

[slowpoke]

DRILLERS?

They have nothing to do with it. How fast do they think they drill a well, get it into production, into a pipeline to a refinery, and then to a power plant? Turns out many power plants do not operate in cold weather even though ERCOT and the PUC have had ten years to correct this.


“A sustained Arctic blast composed of freezing rain, record snowfalls, and high winds hit 22 states, from Mexico to New England in early February 2011. The extreme weather severely affected the power generation and delivery systems in the southwestern U.S. beginning on Tuesday, Feb. 1, finally diminishing the following Saturday. El Paso, for example, experienced the second-worst winter weather in a century, and the worst in 50 years, with 60 consecutive hours of temperatures below 20F. The temperatures in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region during the systemwide emergency ranged from 11F to 35F, equivalent to –5F to the low teens when the wind chill factor is considered. In Austin, temperatures remained below freezing for over 70 consecutive hours.”

https://www.powermag.com/prepare-you...er-operations/

[eagle2]

My previous post on drilling was in regard to the price of oil, not the power outage. My above post is in regard to the power outage. Gas and coal power plants need water to operate, and when their water facilities froze, the power plants weren't able to operate. The main reason for the power outage in TX is because TX utilities weren't prepared to operate in freezing weather.

[slowpoke]

And that is an outrage!

[eagle2]

I agree

[Eric Stoner]

It would cost about $2500 each to winterize each turbine. For weather that hasn't been seen in those parts in at least a decade. And that would burn fossil fuels to operate the back up power.

[eagle2]

Denmark has freezing weather all the time, and they're able to get their wind turbines to work.

[kamiliam]

I truly don’t understand why we have to act like green energy is a legitimate partisan issue. Not so much here but in lots of discourse. Like why did fox and the blogs have to attack green energy for no reason? Everything was messed up in Texas, wind turbines the least of them all. But like everyone can make money on this...as I have mentioned the oil companies are the ones setting up the green energy.

There is crap infrastructure everywhere, from sea to shining sea; that’s why I personally would like some federal standards for that. Those in power are ultimately to blame for the useless denial of climate change and how it will overwhelm underprepared systems. But man I just want those being hurt like this to get some relief and a system they can count on.

[Eric Stoner]

Denmark has freezing weather all the time, and they're able to get their wind turbines to work.

Denmark, Sweden , Canada and other cold weather countries equip their turbines with de-icers and have heaters to keep the blades ice free. How do they power those back-up systems ? Mostly natural gas.

The current problems in Texas are mostly a result of failures in their GAS system , not wind turbines. A lot of media reports about the reliance of 'Texas on wind generated electricity are WRONG ! They do not get 25% of their power from wind. It's 22-23 % in the SUMMER !They have a few days per year when it hits 25%. In winter Texas gets 11 to 12 % from wind. 14% on its best days. In this latest crisis Texas came within a few megawatts of a total shutdown iof their state-wide self contained power grid. I think Texas and Hawaii are the only states who are not part of larger power grid. I think Alaska is connected to the Canadian grid which also connects to the U.S. power grid.

Turbines freeze. With enough ice build-up they mist be shut down. Anti-freeze and de-icing systems run on natural gas or other fossil fuels. Gas pipelines need motors to keep running. Energy is required to keep the gas flowing. Texas USED to use natural gas to operate the motors. EPA regulations required them to switch to "cleaner" electric motors. With the rolling blackouts those motors had no juice and shut down.

Before the Northeast decides to become too reliant on wind they ought to take a good hard look at Texas. For N.Y. to be able to store just four hours of wind generated electricity during a hurricane or Noreaster would cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Northeastern weather is a LOT colder than Texas and more power is required in Northeastern winters.

[eagle2]

Here's more on the cause of the power outage in TX:

https://theweek.com/articles/967583/...nance-nutshell

The proximate reason the Texas grid failed was, at root, quite simple: It was not built to withstand freezing cold. As The Texas Tribune details, experts have been warning Texas politicians, power managers, and utility companies for years that the state is ill-prepared for a cold snap, as happened a decade ago. "In 2011, Texas faced a very similar storm that froze natural gas wells and affected coal plants and wind turbines, leading to power outages across the state," reports the Tribune. "A decade later, Texas power generators have still not made all the investments necessary to prevent plants from tripping offline during extreme cold, experts said."

People have known for decades how to winterize electrical infrastructure — after all, there is still power in Canada and Finland. The reason those investments haven't been made in Texas is because it would have cost a lot of money, and nobody wanted to pay for it — especially because the deregulated Texas energy grid makes it hard to pay for upgrades or extra capacity.

[eagle2]

Before the Northeast decides to become too reliant on wind they ought to take a good hard look at Texas. For N.Y. to be able to store just four hours of wind generated electricity during a hurricane or Noreaster would cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Northeastern weather is a LOT colder than Texas and more power is required in Northeastern winters.

No it wouldn't. Do you know anything about battery storage technology, or its cost? The current cost of battery storage is $1 million per MW of storage, which can power approximately 80,000 homes. In the not too distant future, you might be getting your electricity from a battery during peak times. In New York City, they're building a 316-megawatt battery storage plant in Ravenswood that would store enough electricity to power 250,000 homes for eight hours. At $1 million per MW, the cost should come to approximately $316 million. In addition, the cost of batteries has been falling significantly year over year.

https://www.mintz.com/insights-cente...ct-trading-gas

[Eric Stoner]

No it wouldn't. Do you know anything about battery storage technology, or its cost? The current cost of battery storage is $1 million per MW of storage, which can power approximately 80,000 homes. In the not too distant future, you might be getting your electricity from a battery during peak times. In New York City, they're building a 316-megawatt battery storage plant in Ravenswood that would store enough electricity to power 250,000 homes for eight hours. At $1 million per MW, the cost should come to approximately $316 million. In addition, the cost of batteries has been falling significantly year over year.

https://www.mintz.com/insights-cente...ct-trading-gas

I am so sorry . I didn't realize you were an electrical engineer.

It would be so helpful if you would READ your own links before posting them. That ballyhooed storage project would provide enough electricity for 250,000 households for eight ( 8 ) hours. And in a major breakdown , that can last DAYS ! , then what ? New York has MILLIONS of households requiring ten times the electricity that PROPOSED facility can provide. And that is just residential. It doesn't include electricity for commercial, institutional and industrial use. Did you look at the math of your claims ? You say that 1 megawatt of stored electricity can power 80,000 homes. For how long ? Because you also say that 316 megawatts can power 250,000 homes for 8 hours. Most importantly if YOU knew anything about constructing anything in NYC you would know that the price tag for such a project is virtually guaranteed to at least double before completion.

For some reason you appear to think that deliberately misunderstanding me somehow advances your arguments. I am ALL IN FAVOR of wind , solar and other renewables. All I am saying is that we ought to be careful before putting too many eggs in one basket. That we ought to winterize our wind turbines like Texas was repeatedly told to do. That we ought to have natural gas powered back-up capacity. We have a few small plants in NYC now. Most of the time they are dormant but during peak-time Summer demand they kick in to provide extra power. N.Y. is closing its nuclear plant at Indian Point. It ought to be replaced. New Jersey gets roughly half its electricity from nuclear. So does Delaware.

[eagle2]

I don't have anything against having coal or natural gas power plants available for backup, while using wind, solar, and batteries as the primary source for electricity. The problem in TX is that none of their power sources have been set up to be able to operate in freezing weather, which IMO reaches the level of criminal negligence, since this happened before. They were told they need to modify their power plants to be able to operate in winter conditions and they didn't.

[Eric Stoner]

OMG ! Alert the Media. We agree 100 % ! Maybe it's a sign of the coming Apocalypse - the lion lying down with the lamb ? Lol. I don't mind saying I AM a Leo so that makes ME the lion lol. It's OK . We'll always have capitalism vs. socialism to argue about lol.

Btw, you are totally right about Texas. They were told not once but twice to WINTERIZE their turbines and have a backup system and they didn't do it.
And some of their electrical supply companies have jacked up electrical rates by 1000% or more ! Fortunately the governor put those rate increases on hold.
I have spoken to some people who live in Texas. The recent cold was NOT unheard of . Remember the Super Bowl a few years ago in Dallas ? Everyone was freezing their asses off . Joe Montana in the 1979 Cotton Bowl almost passing out from hypothermia- saved by hot chicken soup at halftime.
The cold lasted a few days longer than previous freezes and came with a lot of snow but it was NOT that unusual. The Texas Energy Co-op could have and should have been better prepared.

[Eric Stoner]

Circling back to the ORIGINAL topic, gas prices continue to go up, up and away !

[eagle2]

As I said before, the price of gas has increased due to the freeze and power outages in TX, which is where a significant amount of our oil comes from.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...63f_story.html

[Eric Stoner]

As I said before, the price of gas has increased due to the freeze and power outages in TX, which is where a significant amount of our oil comes from.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...63f_story.html

Oh stop it. Gasoline has been going up since NOVEMBER !

Btw- An ice storm in Dallas; Temps in the teens ; rolling blackouts affecting 7 million people . 2021 ? NO ! February 2011 when Dallas hosted the Super Bowl.

[eagle2]

No, the price of gas declined in November, and overall has been going up since April, other than small drops in Oct. and Nov. Did you even bother to look at the article I linked to? 40% of U.S. oil output was knocked out.

[Eric Stoner]

Yes. Unlike you I actually READ your links. That is nothing but a temporary hiccup. Oil and gasoline were going up for months BEFORE the Texas Deep Freeze.

[eagle2]

The price of gasoline has been going up because of an increase in demand, not because of the cancellation of a pipeline that wouldn't have been completed for another 2 or 3 years. There was a further increase in the price of gasoline because of a drop in the supply, due to the freeze and power outage in TX.

https://www.usnews.com/news/national...andemic-levels

[Eric Stoner]

The price of gasoline has been going up because of an increase in demand, not because of the cancellation of a pipeline that wouldn't have been completed for another 2 or 3 years. There was a further increase in the price of gasoline because of a drop in the supply, due to the freeze and power outage in TX.

https://www.usnews.com/news/national...andemic-levels

This is getting silly. I never tried to DIRECTLY link cancellation of the Keystone Pipeline to increases in oil prices which were already happening BEFORE Biden cancelled the project. I DID say that cancelling the pipeline and other anti-fossil fuel actions and statements by Biden et. al. resulted in increasing prices at the wholesale level.

I gas up about twice a week. I am NOT imagining the increases in the pump price. I track oil ( and things like gasoline and home heating oil ) and the price has been going up since BEFORE Biden was elected. Those increases have become more pronounced since his election.

WTI ( West Texas Intermediate Crude ) is the best market indicator for the U.S. consumer as opposed to Brent or OPEC. Most Texas oil is refined and consumed domestically here in the U.S. A small portion is exported. Anyway , WTI hit a low in April 2020 - $ 20.46. It hit a high on August 31 - $45.28 - . The price dropped a few dollars per barrel then stabilized. On November 2 it was $36.81 ; November 9 - $40.29 ( What happened ? Biden was Elected ) and now it is almost $58 a barrel. Even allowing for the spike thanks to the Deep Freeze it was still up over $50 a barrel.

Gasoline prices had been going down in 2020 . In fact the average price for a gallon of regular went below $2 a gallon in the Spring It then went up and roughly stabilized between $2.20 and 2.30 a gallon. Since Election Day it has gone up to a high of $2.63. Taking out the latest spike resulting from the Texas and Louisiana Deep Freeze , it was still selling for roughly $2.50 a gallon.