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Thread: USA/North Korea war??

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    Senior Member aliwonderland's Avatar
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    Default USA/North Korea war??

    I really have to stop reading the news so much... I'm starting to think like a doomsday prepper. haha

    So I get that North Koreans and Americans have no real reason to go to war. BUT both Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un seem pretty unstable/volatile/ready for a fight...

    What do you all think about the possibility of war?

    (disclaimer: I also may be subconsciously seeking a good reason to travel abroad again.)

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    Unfortunately it's a possibility. People have been discussing war with North Korea for over a decade

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    Lower than if there was oil there.

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    Trump is keeping war in his back pocket just in case the Mueller investigation gets too close.

    Two little fat boys spoiling for a schoolyard fight they don't have to fight.

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    Very, very, very low, probably on the order of the chance the U.S. and Canada going to war against each other. But, if it does happen, NK won't last long if the U.S. decides not to go nuclear. The NK armed forces are out of date and armed with antiquated weapons. They'll probably fold quicker than the Iraqi Army did in 2003. The real problem is what happens in the aftermath. The south doesn't want the north, the Chinese don't want them either, and clearly we don't. If NK goes nuclear and the U.S. decides to respond in kind, the war lasts about two hours, and NK ceases to exist for a thousand years. This is a no-win situation for NK. Thus, no war will actually take place. Rocket boy doesn't have a suicide wish. He's actually pretty savvy at self-preservation.

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    The biggest player to watch in all this is China. While China and North Korea have a mutual defence pact, they have indicated that they won't defend North Korea if it attacks first. This should hopefully keep the North Korean government in line since they know they can't possibly fend off a US counter attack without Chinese help. However, China has said that they will defend North Korea if they US strikes first. This should give the Trump administration pause since China has enough nuclear ICBMs to wipe out most major US cities should it come down to it. I think given the circumstances there will be a lot of sabre rattling from both sides but no actual war, since neither side can risk the potentially devastating consequences.

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    I disagree, and I think China is bluffing. I think it ends in regime change or war. I don't see any way out. The world will not accept KJU as a nuclear power
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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    If there is a war, I worry that I'll be the first to get nuked, since I just moved to nyc. If not, then maybe we'll finally see our tax dollars at work with the military defense we've got. I have a few relatives who survived through WWII. Honestly, I can't conceive of having to survive through a world war, famine, hyperinflation/complete economic collapse or genocide. Life is not perfect but the modern day is incredibly sheltered in it's own way. Hopefully, all will be ok.

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    In case of a conflict, the people who will suffer the most are the South Koreans, hundreds of thousands dead. NK does not have enough reliable guidance and nuke tech to ensure a strike here, so probably wouldn't try, but they could kill a lot of people in the south without trying too hard.

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    Quote Originally Posted by oldster View Post
    In case of a conflict, the people who will suffer the most are the South Koreans, hundreds of thousands dead. NK does not have enough reliable guidance and nuke tech to ensure a strike here, so probably wouldn't try, but they could kill a lot of people in the south without trying too hard.
    An ugly truth..
    War is not that distant a memory to Koreans.

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    I know this sounds strange, but the South Koreans seem to be actually hungry for war because it will bring re-unification. This of course is an American speaking, so any South Koreans here I don't mean to speak for you.

    I've been many times, and the desire to have the country back whole is like it was in Germany times 10. Of course they don't want death, suffering, or loss, no one does, but they want the moment where they can be a whole country again very very much.
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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    Quote Originally Posted by Bahuba View Post
    South Koreans seem to be actually hungry for war because it will bring re-unification.
    I do not believe that's true. Not even the everyday North Korean want a war.
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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    Seoul is 25-35 miles away from the DMZ, not including suburbs to the north

    I seriously doubt they are looking forward to long range artillery pieces making a mess of them

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    A chinese document was leaked that discusses about the on going construction of refugee camps along the border area. So...the situation is not looking good...
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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    Quote Originally Posted by Bahuba View Post
    I know this sounds strange, but the South Koreans seem to be actually hungry for war because it will bring re-unification. This of course is an American speaking, so any South Koreans here I don't mean to speak for you.
    Reunification would cost the south trillions in infrastructure expenses. Why would anyone want that?

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    I still don't see anyone wanting to pull the trigger on all out war with NK unless Kim does something dumb like launch an attack on US territory or an allied country. NK is a nuclear power now whether we like it or not, the time to stop that from happening has come and gone. A war with them now would be very costly in terms of money and lives. While Donald Trump is big on rhetoric, I don't see him wanting to get bogged down in a war that would make the invasion of Iraq look like a picnic. China may be bluffing on protecting NK or they may not be, I don't think anyone in the US government is ready to take that chance.
    Last edited by daggx; 12-08-2017 at 09:08 PM.

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    Quote Originally Posted by slowpoke View Post
    Reunification would cost the south trillions in infrastructure expenses. Why would anyone want that?
    It isn't a rational thing. Go to the border if you haven't been, you'll see. They have a very very strong desire to end the rift and be reunited.
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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    Quote Originally Posted by baer45 View Post
    I do not believe that's true. Not even the everyday North Korean want a war.
    Everyday North Koreans have no idea what they want, since they have no facts on which to base anything. And we're both speculating, I'll wager, as I'm sure neither of us knows any North Koreans. But, if you go to the border, and see the fully built and staffed train station ready for re-unification, you'll get a sense of what the South Koreans want. I'm not saying it is rational, but they want re-unification and believe it will happen. They know KJU is not going to go without a fight.
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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    Quote Originally Posted by slowpoke View Post
    Reunification would cost the south trillions in infrastructure expenses. Why would anyone want that?
    For the same reason that West Germany wanted to be reunified with East Germany even though they knew that rebuilding the east, after the ravages of decades of Communism, would be extremely expensive (which it was). It's about shared culture and history. Some families track family trees back generations and wish to be reunited with extended family. Others have places with personal or other historical relevance that they wish to visit.

    I know that this sounds a bit foreign to us since we live in a country where cultures intermixing is common and historical attachments are not very strong. But in places with thousands of years of history and very little cultural dilution, these things tend to have much greater importance.
    Last edited by rickdugan; 12-13-2017 at 09:09 AM.

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    Good thing I didn't decide to study/teach in South Korea with what has been taking place. I've heard they recently rescued a N Korean soldier that escaped due to rapidly deteriorating health.

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    The only problem with some of this speculation is that we are expecting the men in power to act rationally. Of course it would be suicidal for NK to attack the US (or rather, try--their missiles can barely make it over Japan). Of course there is a serious danger that China could back NK, if Trump was the aggressor, or they decided he was--and their missiles sure can reach the USA lol.

    But human history is replete with examples of men in power starting wars for stupid reasons, and losing everything in the process. They don't care about the millions of people suffering and dying to keep them in power (or so they hope), they are playing the Game.

    Personally, I think Trump and Rocket Man are both trying desperately to compensate for having tiny little penes. Which makes this all the more dangerous. Especially if Trump thinks he will lose the Presidency, unless there is a nice profitable war to help job growth, and rally the resultant wave of patriotism to his benefit.

    Now this is treading on thin ice, as we are getting into politics here, and I am now as bad as anyone so far. So I will delete my post and/or the thread if anyone has a big problem with it. For now it's fine since there's no drama between SW members.
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    Default Re: USA/North Korea war??

    Quote Originally Posted by Djoser View Post
    The only problem with some of this speculation is that we are expecting the men in power to act rationally.
    THIS.
    Especially after a certain someone's tweet last night, comparing his "button" to the North Korean button.
    I know we're dealing with some crazy leaders and crazy times right now, but is this for real????

    I also find it bizarre that no one talks about this stuff. In a way, I'd feel less worried if I knew more people were aware of and concerned about this situation.

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