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Thread: Are we going to enter a real global recession, maybe even a Depression? Due to Rona?

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    Default Are we going to enter a real global recession, maybe even a Depression? Due to Rona?

    I haven’t seen the media talk about it yet but something got to give if everyone is in self isolation due to the corona virus? I mean it hasn’t happened just yet in my area cause people are still stocking up on toilet paper and essentials but having people work from home and decline in everything, doesn’t look promising in my opinion.

    My college shut down all next month for face to face too so I will see how this transition to online works out.

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    God/dess miss.a.p1600's Avatar
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    Default Re: Are we going to enter a real global recession, maybe even a Depression? Due to Ro

    I think so. Because

    -recessions happen at intervals and we haven’t had one since 2008

    -travel industry is one of the first industries that will be/are in recession

    *key thing to remember is not everyone (aka the wise wealthy people) will be hit significantly by a recession. Some regular folks/innovative companies will thrive as they find ways to adapt and even prosper in this economic climate
    Last edited by miss.a.p1600; 03-15-2020 at 07:02 AM.

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    Default Re: Are we going to enter a real global recession, maybe even a Depression? Due to Ro

    Quote Originally Posted by miss.a.p1600 View Post
    I think so. Because

    -recessions happen at intervals and we haven’t had one since 2008

    -travel industry is one of the first industries that will be/are in recession

    *key thing to remember is not everyone (aka the wise wealthy people) will be hit significantly by a recession. Some people/companies will thrive as they find ways to adapt and even prosper in this economic climate
    This is correct- unfortunately recessions are cyclic, and the global freakout isn't helping a thing.

    Live below your means and consider all the decisions you make about your finances and livelihood.

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    Default Re: Are we going to enter a real global recession, maybe even a Depression? Due to Ro

    Yes, we already are. Our stock market has completely crashed. Most restaurants are closed as well as other non-essential businesses and they cannot afford to float for three months or however long this lasts. People are out of work and depleting their savings. Airlines are cancelling all flights and grounding their planes as hardly anyone is flying. The airports are ghost towns. Tourism and hospitality will be heavily hit as it already has began. Now is the time to hold onto every dollar you have possible and find alternate sources of income.

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    Default Re: Are we going to enter a real global recession, maybe even a Depression? Due to Ro

    Recession definitely. I've read a few analysts say this will be a much shorter lived recession though due to a couple things - it was caused by a health issue that will eventually resolve, not by much more difficult issues like the prior huge recession. Also, some businesses are thriving beyond compare such as Amazon, delivery services, grocery stores. Some will likely go under and others will profit like they have never seen.

    The second thing they point out is that once we come out of this there will be so many events, weddings, concerts, vacations, even just going out to eat that have been put off that this will boost the economy and likely get it going, maybe not back to where it was but it should jumpstart things.


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    Default Re: Are we going to enter a real global recession, maybe even a Depression? Due to Ro

    Quote Originally Posted by miss.a.p1600 View Post
    ...*key thing to remember is not everyone (aka the wise wealthy people) will be hit significantly by a recession. Some regular folks/innovative companies will thrive as they find ways to adapt and even prosper in this economic climate
    I have worked very hard since 2009 to be one of those "wise wealthy people." I stopped my house flipping business, which nearly sunk us. I bought a good business and have grown it very well.

    I have run the business on a recessionary footing since I bought it. It helps that the only shareholders are me and daughter. (She's too young to have a vote, so I control the whole thing including when and how much to pay in dividends.) Business was good, really good before this virus, so I expect it to come back after. I have split my crew into two shifts, one early and one late. That allows us to implement more social distancing. I have stopped all travel and now do meetings by video conferencing. Because we are in the construction industry, and we are involved in housing, we can continue to work up to a point. I have pushed that point pretty far, but a number of non-construction, non-healthcare customers have slowed way down and I have deferred their orders.

    Unlike Dave Ramsey, I believe in credit. I have kept my business' credit relationships strong. When the reports of shutting down the Chinese economy started to filter in, I drew down my company's second largest line of credit. I put all that cash in the bank. Along with the company's normal reserves and I put off paying the Q1 dividend, we now have cash reserves sufficient to fund operations for more than a year. I drew down on the second largest line of credit because there are no personal guarantees on that line. It's just the company. No risk to house and home. I have been extending generous terms to our customers. I have offered extensions on delivery and of course billing, or credit where necessary. I know I will lose some money because some customers will go under without paying me, but I expect the goodwill from those customers who do make it through will more than compensate for the losses.

    Speaking of which, I have my sales people and estimators out in force looking for new bids and especially for new customers. A recession is the time to grow market share, and, I will grow it. Inside the business, I have instituted a no overtime rule, but I have put all my hourly employees on a guaranteed 40 hours per week, regardless of actual hours worked. A few hourly employees have been moved into estimator trainee positions. These people are learning a new and what I expect will be a much needed skill once this all ends and business opens up. I cancelled all vehicle purchases for 2020. But, I have stepped up our maintenance schedule. I told the maintenance foreman I expect him to clear all pending items on his list for Q1 and Q2 by no later than the end of April 2020. So he has drawn in some production workers into maintenance.

    At home, I am cooking more. It's been three weeks and we have had one meal out. Daughter and I are enjoying the time we spend shopping for food and cooking. She's a pretty good cook, and I love watching her grow in a new way. All the home cooking has meant we are spending way less. That saving is going directly into the emergency fund. Beyond that, I have cut the dividend, so D and I are living on my salary, BF's salary and travel bonus, and daughter's. Because daughter's college fund was partially invested in the stock market, I have continued investing in her fund, but only in a passbook savings account. That pays 1.25% for the moment. She's 15, she'll need that money in a three years, so having the principal is far more important than long term gains.

    Also, unlike Dave Ramsey fans, I have credit cards. Right now, I have zero balances on all of them. But, I took out a new airline card that gave me 70,000 miles with Delta and a credit limit of $125,000 at 9%. All I have to do is charge $3,000 over the next three months. Which I will have done and paid off by the end of the grace period. So in addition to my HELOC and my house that is nearly paid for, I have a lot of borrowing power, if it comes to that. I did take the cash that builds up in my investment fund and my 401(k) and do a lot of stock buying in the last month. Dollar cost averaging is your friend. And, bargains abound in the market.

    Well, that's what I'm doing, on the hopefully wise woman front. Good luck to everybody!

    XOXO
    Z

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    Default Re: Are we going to enter a real global recession, maybe even a Depression? Due to Ro

    Went to the store and there were no eggs, toilet paper, paper towels or soap. To add I almost got confronted by some big guy in an aisle for wearing a mask and gloves. (Which my Grandmother demanded)
    Giving me nasty looks, glares and yelling "Hey girl!, to which his Wife slapped his arm and demanded he move on. I've never been aggressively confronted in public before, other than being stopped by someone to tell a joke or have a short conversation in line. This is the first time we have left the house in over a month since this pandemic has started and to avoid getting my Grandparents sick. Freaking crazy!

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    Default Re: Are we going to enter a real global recession, maybe even a Depression? Due to Ro

    I think we are in a recession but not everybody is being affected by it( thankfully) and a lot of companies are thinking outside the box to keep them going. But I’m thinking abundance and not worrying about how it’s going to be once everything opens back up. I got some press on nails and matching nail polish for the toes once were open for business(if I run out of my savings)! I even hemmed a dress (which is actually a tight pencil skirt) for a fresh outfit.
    Just like the majority of us thinking “ I’m gonna work everyday once we open.. guys (who can) are going to save up to come into the club to spend money on us!! That’s my mindset right now.

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    Default Re: Are we going to enter a real global recession, maybe even a Depression? Due to Ro

    I’m freaking out probably not as much as I should but in the mean time I’m just making content and coming up with a plan to post it. Even if customers don’t buy because of the economy I figure I can at least get paid from ads and affiliate marketing.

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    Default Re: Are we going to enter a real global recession, maybe even a Depression? Due to Ro

    This ‘recession’ is caused by artificially turning off the economy. When the economy is permitted to return to operation, I think it will snap back like a rubber band stretched and released.
    https://thebusinessprofessor.com/kno...nd-definition/

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