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Thread: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

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    Default how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    I'm curious as to what you ladies think of all this right now?
    I'm so hoping that the travel bans & quarantines will help but it's so scary how fast it's been spreading here in the US.

    I literally have anxiety over it everyday since I'm currently in a higher risk for exposure area,however due to cases rising in most states , I'm afraid they will catch up before it curves.

    Am I freaking myself out more than I should?
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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    2 months. I'm not really sure

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    I think it will go once they quarantine everywhere. They need to do it in my city. People here are buying everything then going clubbing like nothing is happening ugh.
    xoxo

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Until April or early summer.

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blovely View Post
    Until April or early summer.
    I don’t know where you got that info, but that intuitively seems right to me

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Governor of Nyc says 6 months. China is on month 5 and they’re on full lock down.

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    They said summer today on CNN.
    xoxo

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Looks like we are going to have to hunker down, whether we like it or not, until social distancing recommendations (orders) are lifted. It can be two weeks from now, it can be several months from now. The virus can disappear or spread less when the warmer months come, or not. It can return again later, or not, it can mutate, or not. We do not know any of that yet, there is no vaccine for this virus at the moment. Best course of action is to pursue other sources of income for the time being unless you sit on a decent savings cushion. Maybe focus on school, family, pursue other goals if you can afford to pay your bills. This is the moment some of us have worried about: what am I going to do when I am not able to strip? And how can I make it happen from home, if I have to stay in.
    Last edited by Adelina; 03-16-2020 at 05:10 PM.

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    End of the summer.
    "There are different kinds of darkness. There is darkness that frightens, the darkness that soothes, the darkness that is restful. There is the darkness of lovers, and the darkness of assassins. It becomes what the bearer wishes it to be, needs it to be. It is not wholly bad or good."
    - The Court of Mist and Fury

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    I'm guessing 6 months from now... because no one is following actual recommendations, and I think the US is going to have to put strict rules in for a longer period of time. But don't get nervous. We still have the most important parts of our society in place and running. People are able to keep the agricultural industry running, we'll have food and supplies and everything we need. The economy might have some issues in the long run, but we're all going to survive this, we just need to accept the situation and stay at home.

    It's far from the end of the world. The workforce is made of young people, who are surviving this. And we are working on anti-virals and vaccines, so this will not be a permanent crisis.

    And also, I feel you, I'm stranded abroad right now and have literally nothing, just a suitcase, shelter, and my dogs. But we're all going to be OK. The important thing is that we stay close to our support system, we share our resources, and we take a minute to slow down and chill. Think of this as a forced vacation. The doctor says we need to slow down and relax, so get to it!

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    I think if everyone follows the recommendations we could get back to semi normal sooner than later. Places where there’s more density will have a longer time frame to get it under control

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Here's what making me sad- I think the mutations of COVID 19 will still be cutting down people for a few years (long after the quarantine activities have been stopped.) So for those of you with treasured elders, love them now and make the correct plans for their funerals while you have funds.

    Oddly enough this catastrophe has brought some groups of people together & strengthened their bonds.

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    My state is now one that has placed strict rules. Most places are closed .
    This is about 3 days into a state recommended full 14 day quarantine.

    One silver lining that I see here is that people now have the time to do those simple types of road trips people have talked about and not done for years. Natural places are still open to enjoy ! Take advantage now if you have enough food on hand and gas $ to go. Virus wise, I feel much safer outside the city and don't plan on returning for 11-12 days. I got some of the cooking latex gloves to use on gas pumps. They are germy.

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    At least a year.

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    I am old enough to remember in real time the situation around the HIV virus. It is all about when the curve breaks. With HIV it was the long latency and at that point unknown ease of transmission. Back then it took many months to decide that the curve had 'broken' and what the size of the epidemic was.

    The news is finally kind of explaining this the way they used to but, in simple terms it is like this:

    All epidemics have a natural curve of about the same shape. You have seen the pictures online. Exponential* growth, then at some point it runs out of victims, either because they are dead, immune, or simply recovered[think the common cold]
    The shape is always the same, it is the size that matters to us. Once the curve breaks[IOW ceases to be exponential] then you have an idea of the size of the thing.
    The curve in the US has not broken, so we cannot tell the size of the thing.

    China is the only place I see that has levelled, so there is hope that we can do the same.




    * exponential as in 2,4,8,16,32,64,128, this hits 2 billion in thirty iterations.[2*2=4, 2*4=8, 2*8=16, you get the picture]

    a 'linear' progression is more like 2,4,6,8,10,12,and in 30 days[iterations] this progression only hits 42.

    I apologize if this is over-explaining, but I figure this is not a math geek forum, and I figure if you understand a thing, you can better process the information that you get.

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Korea has also "flattened the curve" but both China and Korea did it with strong intervention (though different) that is only slowly being recognized as necessary elsewhere in the world.

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    People are forgetting how badly the media is blowing things far out of proportion, the h1n1 had millions of infections and it was glossed over just in the US alone. This is still under 200k infections worldwide and nearly half have recovered. The real danger is panic and letting the doomsayers run your life. If you are over 65 yes take greater precautions, but these six month and longer predictions are nuts.

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by OmegaWest View Post
    People are forgetting how badly the media is blowing things far out of proportion, the h1n1 had millions of infections and it was glossed over just in the US alone. This is still under 200k infections worldwide and nearly half have recovered. The real danger is panic and letting the doomsayers run your life. If you are over 65 yes take greater precautions, but these six month and longer predictions are nuts.
    NO


    I cannot say, for certain, that everything they are doing is necessary, however, there is a huge difference between H1N1 and this virus

    The average flu virus has a mortality of about.1 percent. H1N1 was actually lower than that,

    Corona virus has a mortality of over 3 percent right now

    A level of infections comparable to the seasonal flu or H1N1 could result in millions of deaths

    That is math, not panic.


    The H1N1 in 2009 killed about 14000 people, this is already at 8, it is 10 to 30 times more lethal


    You want to speak to the relative necessity of various actions, or how stupid people are, fine, but this is the real deal


    I also get that old people don't matter, but when they have used up all the ventilators in the country, what do you think happens when you show up?

    So, yeah, slow the rate of infection.

    This is not the flu

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by carmen_b View Post
    My state is now one that has placed strict rules. Most places are closed .
    This is about 3 days into a state recommended full 14 day quarantine.

    One silver lining that I see here is that people now have the time to do those simple types of road trips people have talked about and not done for years. Natural places are still open to enjoy ! Take advantage now if you have enough food on hand and gas $ to go. Virus wise, I feel much safer outside the city and don't plan on returning for 11-12 days. I got some of the cooking latex gloves to use on gas pumps. They are germy.
    You reminded me- auto parts stores and auto parts warehouses stock latex or nitrile gloves (some mechanics use them to avoid wear and tear on hands, or to avoid leaving skin oils on delicate car parts.) In case someone needs those gloves for healthcare at home situations or to avoid exposure to bacteria and viruses, you can try an auto parts store if other places are sold out.

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Would you say that I'm safer driving to a location (with lower cases) out of the current higher risk state I'm in now or stay put? I'm staying home as recommended except when I get low on food. I hate going out to the grocery stores due to high anxiety over all of this & scared of catching it from standing in line, ect.

    I'd really not have anywhere to stay if I went back "home" to stay with family due to not wanting to possibly expose them with anything since they are currently sick.

    I'm more afraid of getting on the road to get there then get locked down & stuck in a place I have no family & have to pay out the ass for a place to self quarantine like they are recommending.

    What do you think?
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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by xxxGothBarbie View Post
    Would you say that I'm safer driving to a location (with lower cases) out of the current higher risk state I'm in now or stay put? I'm staying home as recommended except when I get low on food. I hate going out to the grocery stores due to high anxiety over all of this & scared of catching it from standing in line, ect.

    I'd really not have anywhere to stay if I went back "home" to stay with family due to not wanting to possibly expose them with anything since they are currently sick.

    I'm more afraid of getting on the road to get there then get locked down & stuck in a place I have no family & have to pay out the ass for a place to self quarantine like they are recommending.

    What do you think?
    Stay put.

    I know you're not that into being around your relatives so I think cohabitating with them at this time would be disastrous....

    It's not likely you'll catch it.


    On a different note- a relative of mine says some West Coast cities are discussing Martial Law in case things get worse. Probably won't happen. Any adults running the show for self-quarantine who have lived through natural disasters (hurricanes, etc.) can guide everyone else through this difficult time. Just keep calm.

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by oldster View Post
    NO


    I cannot say, for certain, that everything they are doing is necessary, however, there is a huge difference between H1N1 and this virus

    The average flu virus has a mortality of about.1 percent. H1N1 was actually lower than that,

    Corona virus has a mortality of over 3 percent right now

    A level of infections comparable to the seasonal flu or H1N1 could result in millions of deaths

    That is math, not panic.


    The H1N1 in 2009 killed about 14000 people, this is already at 8, it is 10 to 30 times more lethal


    You want to speak to the relative necessity of various actions, or how stupid people are, fine, but this is the real deal


    I also get that old people don't matter, but when they have used up all the ventilators in the country, what do you think happens when you show up?

    So, yeah, slow the rate of infection.

    This is not the flu
    Not saying old people dont matter at all. What Im saying is they are the most at risk group to have complications and death from this current outbreak. in other age groups only those who are immunocompromised or have underlying conditions are at risk of being in that .5 percentage. It is only 3 percent if you only look at those from the at risk age groups not overall.

    H1N1 infected 59 million just in the US alone 265000 were stricken badly enough to need hospital care and 12000 died by middle of 2010.

    This time we dont have 200000 cases worldwide.

    We had zero shutdowns over H1N1 that infected 59 million so that is why im calling this a panic over less than 7000 cases here in the US

    current numbers for the US as of today

    6437 cases 109 deaths or .0169 percent death rate, very far from 3.0

    number of cases per million people
    20 infections

    those are current numbers and you can see this is panic

    59 million is much worse than 6500

    so you can see all the numbers for yourself
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Kevin Durant and three other players on the Brooklyn Nets have tested positive for it. Only one player is showing any symptoms.

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by OmegaWest View Post
    Not saying old people dont matter at all. What Im saying is they are the most at risk group to have complications and death from this current outbreak. in other age groups only those who are immunocompromised or have underlying conditions are at risk of being in that .5 percentage. It is only 3 percent if you only look at those from the at risk age groups not overall.

    H1N1 infected 59 million just in the US alone 265000 were stricken badly enough to need hospital care and 12000 died by middle of 2010.

    This time we dont have 200000 cases worldwide.

    We had zero shutdowns over H1N1 that infected 59 million so that is why im calling this a panic over less than 7000 cases here in the US

    current numbers for the US as of today

    6437 cases 109 deaths or .0169 percent death rate, very far from 3.0

    number of cases per million people
    20 infections

    those are current numbers and you can see this is panic

    59 million is much worse than 6500

    so you can see all the numbers for yourself
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
    It's also worth looking at how those numbers have come about. In most places there isn't wise spread testing, so the people being tested, so the ones who are testing positive and being added to those statistics are those that presented sick, went to the hospital with the right symptoms and were deemed worthy of testing. There are likely a ton more infections that are not being included in those statistics because the people who are asymptomatic, don't have bad symptoms, or decide to ride it out at home and don't need medical assistance are not being tested and included in those stats.

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    I'm surprised so many aren't taking this seriously. This is way different than anything we have faced. The fact that it's being spread asymptomatically means there are way more cases than we have confirmed.

    The numbers here are following the same curve as Italy several weeks back. There are doctors crying in the hallways because they are forced to decide who gets a ventilator and who dies. Northern Italy has an excellent health care system and have more ICU beds per population than we do. I guess the numbers don't move anyone until they see it in person. They were better prepared than we are and they aren't able to handle it.

    New York ICU beds are already at 80% capacity and the crisis there isn't at it's peak.

    I still see people gathering and probably spreading the virus and I'm floored. Also why is everyone going out to the store when they could order online? It may take a bit to arrive but way better than going there yourself.


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