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Thread: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

  1. #26
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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by OmegaWest View Post
    Not saying old people dont matter at all. What Im saying is they are the most at risk group to have complications and death from this current outbreak. in other age groups only those who are immunocompromised or have underlying conditions are at risk of being in that .5 percentage. It is only 3 percent if you only look at those from the at risk age groups not overall.

    H1N1 infected 59 million just in the US alone 265000 were stricken badly enough to need hospital care and 12000 died by middle of 2010.

    This time we dont have 200000 cases worldwide.

    We had zero shutdowns over H1N1 that infected 59 million so that is why im calling this a panic over less than 7000 cases here in the US

    current numbers for the US as of today

    6437 cases 109 deaths or .0169 percent death rate, very far from 3.0

    number of cases per million people
    20 infections

    those are current numbers and you can see this is panic

    59 million is much worse than 6500

    so you can see all the numbers for yourself
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
    Dude, you are not understanding math

    If we do 'nothing' and if we get 59 million infections you are talking about potentially 2 million deaths

    that is math

    which you appear to be bad at.

    worldwide 4 percent death rate as of this morning

    US 1.5 percent death rate

    59million cases would be 900,000 dead

    it is not like the flu

    Stop it

    Just Stop It

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by ioienvyioi View Post
    2 months. I'm not really sure
    Try 18 months

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/u...irus-plan.html

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by jeffb View Post
    If you are talking about how long the corona virus will be around ? Maybe but unlikely. If you want to know how long before we can get back to normal ? 6 to 12 weeks .

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?



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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    I do not believe the Chinese government about the Covid-19 has been fully controlled in China. They lied about it from the beginning, and now it has more reason to lie in order to get the manufactories to operate again. Just like Trump will lie about the situation in order to make the numbers (US stock market) look good. But a complete lockdown and social distancing should help a great deal in the Covid-19 pandemic, that I believe.
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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by laurielegs View Post
    [video=youtube;nMY0-4p9P-M]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMY0-4p9P-M[video]
    Here's a better video.


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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by oldster View Post
    NO


    I cannot say, for certain, that everything they are doing is necessary, however, there is a huge difference between H1N1 and this virus

    The average flu virus has a mortality of about.1 percent. H1N1 was actually lower than that,

    Corona virus has a mortality of over 3 percent right now

    A level of infections comparable to the seasonal flu or H1N1 could result in millions of deaths

    That is math, not panic.


    The H1N1 in 2009 killed about 14000 people, this is already at 8, it is 10 to 30 times more lethal


    You want to speak to the relative necessity of various actions, or how stupid people are, fine, but this is the real deal


    I also get that old people don't matter, but when they have used up all the ventilators in the country, what do you think happens when you show up?

    So, yeah, slow the rate of infection.

    This is not the flu
    Thank God it is not the flu. A lot more people have been killed by the flu this year than by CV-19. On the other hand CV-19 IS highly infectious. The lawyer in New Rochelle infected 50 other people before he was diagnosed and hospitalized.

    Despite some panic and overreaction our response to the Corona virus will probably lessen its duration and public health impact. It is the economic impact and the hamfisted overreaction that I find a lot more worrisome.

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Thank God it is not the flu. A lot more people have been killed by the flu this year than by CV-19. On the other hand CV-19 IS highly infectious. The lawyer in New Rochelle infected 50 other people before he was diagnosed and hospitalized.

    Despite some panic and overreaction our response to the Corona virus will probably lessen its duration and public health impact. It is the economic impact and the hamfisted overreaction that I find a lot more worrisome.
    Eric,
    Your response makes no sense to me

    this Corona virus is 10-30 times more lethal. It is similar in infectiousness to the flu. If we have as many cases as we do flu cases there will be a massive loss of life.

    That is the difference between .1 percent and 1.6 or 4 percent, or the 9 percent in Italy right now. In the area hardest hit in Italy right now, it has nearly doubled the death rate

    https://reason.com/2020/03/17/italia...y-up-about-80/


    again not panic, math

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by laurielegs View Post
    I'm surprised so many aren't taking this seriously. This is way different than anything we have faced. The fact that it's being spread asymptomatically means there are way more cases than we have confirmed.

    The numbers here are following the same curve as Italy several weeks back. There are doctors crying in the hallways because they are forced to decide who gets a ventilator and who dies. Northern Italy has an excellent health care system and have more ICU beds per population than we do. I guess the numbers don't move anyone until they see it in person. They were better prepared than we are and they aren't able to handle it.

    New York ICU beds are already at 80% capacity and the crisis there isn't at it's peak.

    I still see people gathering and probably spreading the virus and I'm floored. Also why is everyone going out to the store when they could order online? It may take a bit to arrive but way better than going there yourself.
    Italy has fully socialised medicine, which is why when the bulk of their elderly all hit the hospitals at one time overwhelmed the system

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by oldster View Post
    Eric,
    Your response makes no sense to me

    this Corona virus is 10-30 times more lethal. It is similar in infectiousness to the flu. If we have as many cases as we do flu cases there will be a massive loss of life.

    That is the difference between .1 percent and 1.6 or 4 percent, or the 9 percent in Italy right now. In the area hardest hit in Italy right now, it has nearly doubled the death rate

    https://reason.com/2020/03/17/italia...y-up-about-80/


    again not panic, math

    the areas in italy hit are all avg age over 75 which is why it is being hit so hard, the entire area is high risk critical patients.

    this isnt 10-30 times as lethal when you look at overall infections across all age groups. 99% are mild patients when you look at the whole picture

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by OmegaWest View Post
    the areas in italy hit are all avg age over 75 which is why it is being hit so hard, the entire area is high risk critical patients.

    this isnt 10-30 times as lethal when you look at overall infections across all age groups. 99% are mild patients when you look at the whole picture

    You are seriously trying to say an entire region is high risk?

    You need to evaluate your news sources and math skills


    YEs, it is in fact 10-30 times more deadly than the flu

    The Flu kills the elderly too, in higher numbers too


    your assumptions are incorrect, your numbers are wrong

    median age in Italy is about 46, not 75


    Oh, and the flu, 99.9 percent are mild cases

    the difference is a half a million dead

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Well, according to scientists, the reproduction number for Covid 19 is 3. That means each virus carrier has the potential to infect 3 people. And the time between generations is 4, meaning every 4 days, people who was infected can spread the virus again.
    (3^n-1)/2 = 327.2 million ==> n =18. So 4X18=72 days. Given reproduction number 3, 3(1-p)<1, so the possibility of immunity is p=33%, that gives...hmmm. 215 million people here. Without any social distancing and vaccines, medications, the whole population of the US would be infected by Covid-19 in 72 days, yes, 215 million of us. hmmm.... I am bored am I >?
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    Duh Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by oldster View Post
    You are seriously trying to say an entire region is high risk?

    You need to evaluate your news sources and math skills


    YEs, it is in fact 10-30 times more deadly than the flu

    The Flu kills the elderly too, in higher numbers too


    your assumptions are incorrect, your numbers are wrong

    median age in Italy is about 46, not 75

    Oh, and the flu, 99.9 percent are mild cases

    the difference is a half a million dead

    Hello Oldster:

    Bloomberg: AVERAGE age of those who've died in Italy = 79.5.
    Scientific American: MEDIAN age in Italy = 47.3:

    You're both right with what you are trying to say, but....

    YOU need to evaluate YOUR math skills. Why would you bring up something like MEDIAN age to argue someone talking about AVERAGE age?

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    Default Re: how long do you think this panademic will last in the US?

    Quote Originally Posted by randomplant View Post
    Hello Oldster:

    Bloomberg: AVERAGE age of those who've died in Italy = 79.5.
    Scientific American: MEDIAN age in Italy = 47.3:

    You're both right with what you are trying to say, but....

    YOU need to evaluate YOUR math skills. Why would you bring up something like MEDIAN age to argue someone talking about AVERAGE age?
    As you compare apples to rutabagas in your failed attempt at a takedown

    neither the average nor median age in the province is over 70 as the previous poster stated

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