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Thread: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

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    Default Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

    To put that into perspective, last year the unemployment rate was about 4%.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...-rate-n1162601

    Trump administration officials warned Senate Republicans on Tuesday that the coronavirus outbreak in the United States could cause the unemployment rate to reach 20 percent, according to two sources familiar with the discussion.

    The warning came during a closed-door lunch on Capitol Hill in which Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin presented a White House stimulus plan that could cost at least $1 trillion. The prediction was first reported by Bloomberg News. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow also attended the lunch.

    As the stock market struggles and the health of the economy is in serious jeopardy, previously reluctant Republicans are becoming much more open to approving an aid bill that large.

    That estimated unemployment rate would be double the highest rate from the period around the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, when it reached 10 percent in October 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Before then, the unemployment rate had not been that high since late 1982 through the first half of 1983 when it peaked at 10.8 percent.

    Of course, Americans experienced the worst unemployment during the Great Depression in the 1930s. Estimates say that the unemployment rate hit 25 percent in 1933. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, however, said that it was difficult to measure unemployment because there was little statistical data on the extent or the nature of joblessness across the country.



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    Default Re: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

    20%? That seems low.

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    Default Re: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

    ^ That is 20% of those actually seeking work. The percentage of people not working would of course be far larger.

    To put this in perspective, we haven't seen 20% unemployment in this country since the Great Depression.

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    Default Re: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

    Quote Originally Posted by jeffb View Post
    To put that into perspective, last year the unemployment rate was about 4%.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...-rate-n1162601

    Trump administration officials warned Senate Republicans on Tuesday that the coronavirus outbreak in the United States could cause the unemployment rate to reach 20 percent, according to two sources familiar with the discussion.

    The warning came during a closed-door lunch on Capitol Hill in which Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin presented a White House stimulus plan that could cost at least $1 trillion. The prediction was first reported by Bloomberg News. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow also attended the lunch.

    As the stock market struggles and the health of the economy is in serious jeopardy, previously reluctant Republicans are becoming much more open to approving an aid bill that large.

    That estimated unemployment rate would be double the highest rate from the period around the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009, when it reached 10 percent in October 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Before then, the unemployment rate had not been that high since late 1982 through the first half of 1983 when it peaked at 10.8 percent.

    Of course, Americans experienced the worst unemployment during the Great Depression in the 1930s. Estimates say that the unemployment rate hit 25 percent in 1933. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, however, said that it was difficult to measure unemployment because there was little statistical data on the extent or the nature of joblessness across the country.


    When Mnuchin was later asked about his comments, he said the figure was “an absolute total worst case scenario,” but not something he ever believed would actually happen.

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    Default Re: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

    If this complete shutdown continues for much longer then it may go from a worst case scenario to a base case. The economy simply cannot sustain this for long.

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    Default Re: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

    New York is getting hit really hard. Close to 1/2 of all confirmed cases in the U.S. are in New York.

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    Default Re: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    If this complete shutdown continues for much longer then it may go from a worst case scenario to a base case. The economy simply cannot sustain this for long.
    They're now saying the unemployment rate could reach 30%.

    https://www.ocregister.com/2020/03/2...lions-of-jobs/

    The impact is hard to overstate. The restaurant industry alone is set to lose 7.4 million jobs, consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. estimates. The shutdowns across the country could send the jobless rate spiraling to 30% in the second quarter, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard told Bloomberg.

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    Default Re: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

    Quote Originally Posted by jeffb View Post
    They're now saying the unemployment rate could reach 30%.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ar-to-30-in-2q

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/...0-3-1029022288

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    Default Re: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

    only 20?

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    Default Re: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate



    Hmmm... not me, I want to stay away from the crowd for two months.
    I like being alone, I just don't like being lonely.




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    Default Re: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

    Now they're talking about shutting down the post office. I wonder how many lives will be lost over the actions we're yakking. People get life saving meds through the po

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    Default Re: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

    Wow, read this.

    https://www.khq.com/coronavirus/down...28714c56e.html

    Both the scale of the layoffs and the speed at which they are happening are unprecedented. During the Great Recession, for example, the worst week for jobless claims was 665,000. Last week, the nation saw five times that amount, nearly 3.5 million claims

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    Default Re: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

    Quote Originally Posted by jeffb View Post
    Both the scale of the layoffs and the speed at which they are happening are unprecedented. During the Great Recession, for example, the worst week for jobless claims was 665,000. Last week, the nation saw five times that amount, nearly 3.5 million claims
    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/26/e...rus/index.html

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    Default Re: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    ^ That is 20% of those actually seeking work. The percentage of people not working would of course be far larger.

    To put this in perspective, we haven't seen 20% unemployment in this country since the Great Depression.
    Yeah this modern day Great Depression is happening.

    https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/0...own-continues/

    Unemployment in Hawaii tops 37%.

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    Default Re: Trump administration warns of 20 percent unemployment rate

    Quote Originally Posted by jeffb View Post
    Yeah this modern day Great Depression is happening.

    https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/0...own-continues/

    Unemployment in Hawaii tops 37%.
    Probably higher than that here lol. But Key West is a lot smaller than Hawaii
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