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Thread: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

  1. #276
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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Thank you Adelina but I posted about the mish moshing of the COVID mortality data WEEKS ago. No disrespect whatsoever but this is old news. Please see my posts - 24 ; 41 ;80; 83 and 96.

    I agree with you about heart attacks and other organic causes of death but I doubt that accident or gunshot victims who have positive COVID tests are counted as having died from COVID. If they are then that is an outrage but it would be news to me.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 07-08-2020 at 10:14 AM.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Cause of death is never perfect. This isn’t a new phenomenon with covid. Often it is at the medical professionals discretion. Take a look at your grandparents/parent’s death certificate and you may be surprised at the official cause of death. One way to look at it is that would that person have died without the presence of covid. Once again you personally can doubt their findings but they are making a medical determination. I agree that if car accident deaths were at a large scale being attributed to the pandemic that is a big problem just haven’t seen that happening. All this talk of freak incidents needs to be applied to both sides.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Sigh. Your link says nothing about ICU beds in Florida. Besides, there are other reasons patients are put into ICU's besides just Covid.
    It looks like they changed the article since I posted it. Here's one saying 56 Florida hospitals are reported to have no intensive care unit (ICU) beds available.

    https://www.newsweek.com/56-florida-...pacity-1516054

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Yes, but that is fixable. NYC and other cities proved you can expand ICU capacity very quickly.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Thank you Adelina but I posted about the mish moshing of the COVID mortality data WEEKS ago. No disrespect whatsoever but this is old news. Please see my posts - 24 ; 41 ;80; 83 and 96.

    I agree with you about heart attacks and other organic causes of death but I doubt that accident or gunshot victims who have positive COVID tests are counted as having died from COVID. If they are then that is an outrage but it would be news to me.
    Someone in this thread was asking for a link explaining Covid deaths count so I posted it. It's old news, I agree. But someone may not know yet.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Yes, but that is fixable. NYC and other cities proved you can expand ICU capacity very quickly.
    Regardless of whether or not it's fixable, wouldn't it be better if all of these people didn't need to go into intensive care in the first place?

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    An increase in people dying at home suggests coronavirus deaths in Houston may be higher than reported

    In Houston, one of the nation's fastest-growing coronavirus hot spots, more residents are dying before they can make it to a hospital. Medical examiner data shows that an increasing number of these deaths are the result of COVID-19.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07...deaths-number/

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    Regardless of whether or not it's fixable, wouldn't it be better if all of these people didn't need to go into intensive care in the first place?
    In an ideal world sure. But right now we live in a world with necessary trade offs if we want a functioning society (and economy and education system and...). If the death rates are not spiking in these places, then increased hospital utilization is an acceptable tradeoff and your Houston example was both speculative and not especially compelling given how many people were dying at home before COVID.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    In an ideal world sure. But right now we live in a world with necessary trade offs if we want a functioning society (and economy and education system and...). If the death rates are not spiking in these places, then increased hospital utilization is an acceptable tradeoff and your Houston example was both speculative and not especially compelling given how many people were dying at home before COVID.
    “We now have mortality data for the first few months of 2020 for many countries, and, as you might expect, there were steep increases associated with the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in each one.”

    “Surprisingly, however, these increases did not begin before the lockdowns were imposed, but after. Moreover, in almost every case, they began immediately after. Often, mortality numbers were on a downward trend before suddenly reversing course after lockdowns were decreed.”

    “This is an astonishing finding…”

    "You will notice that only after each country (or city) was locked down did the increases begin. Moreover, they began immediately, and in nearly every case, precipitously.”

    “All this leads us to the following questions, which we pose to all those who continue to defend the use of lockdowns as an effective means to prevent excess deaths.”

    “Q: Why was there no significant increase in overall mortality, in any country we have good data for, before the start of lockdowns?”

    “Q: Why does a precise and exact correlation exist between the start of lockdowns and significant rises in overall mortality?”

    "Q: How is it, moreover, that this moment in time [i.e., the imposition of lockdowns] happened to fall immediately before that precipitous rise?”

    “Q: If health authorities vastly underestimated the prevalence of the virus at the beginning of the pandemic, why did the virus nevertheless wait until lockdowns were imposed to suddenly start killing at levels which exceeded normal deaths?”

    —To that last question, I would respond: No virus would wait. We’re not talking about a virus at all. We’re talking about the sudden effects of the lockdowns.

    And those sudden death-effects would come crashing down, first, and immediately, on the most vulnerable people in these countries:

    THE LOCKDOWNS FORCED THE PREMATURE DEATHS OF OLD PEOPLE.

    PEOPLE WHO HAD BEEN SUFFERING FROM MULTIPLE HEALTH CONDITIONS FOR YEARS, WHO HAD BEEN TREATED WITH TOXIC MEDICAL DRUGS, WHOSE IMMUNE SYSTEMS WERE ALREADY SEVERELY COMPROMISED…

    AND WHO ARE SUDDENLY TERRIFIED BY TWO MORE FACTORS—THE POSSIBILITY OF A COVID-19 DIAGNOSIS, AND ISOLATION FROM FRIENDS AND FAMILY. THESE TWO FACTORS PUSH THEM OVER THE EDGE AND THEY DIE.

    Especially in nursing homes; but also in hospitals, and in their homes.

    This is the true face of “COVID.”

    https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020...zen-countries/

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    ^ That's a lot of very dramatically written stories for sure. But all of those articles, replete with hyperbole, are spinning cherry picked stats that ignore important population spread and actual death count data.

    Here are the simple, unvarnished hard numbers as reported by the CDC:

    Number of deaths in the U.S.: 129,811
    Number of deaths under 14 years old: 58
    Number of death under 24 years old: 342

    The numbers are what they are. Now yes every life is precious, but in a nation of 330 million people those under 24 death counts are stunningly low. We can't live being afraid of every remote possible problem or freak bad luck. Over the same period the flu killed a lot more young people than COVID did and we didn't shut schools down for that. Shit more kids died in car accidents this year than they have from COVID, yet we still drive them to school and activities.

    So again rational people need to keep their heads, become informed and then use that information to make decisions that work best for their families and situations.
    Yes, as long as you give the option for home schooling, because I have grandkids who are here after school until picked up by parents, and an infirmed wife who, if she catches COVID-19 is likely dead. I am not sending my grandkids into those petri dishes, coming back here and putting Mrs GR at that kind of risk, and my daughter-in-law needs us to help her out. So, what do you do about folks in our situation. Home schooling, with the kind of assistance it is getting now, has to be in the picture.
    Fiat justitia, pereat mundus.


    BTW, while we are on the subject, is it needed to point out the obvious: That it is just possible that if you are willing to judge the worth of someone simply by what you read on a website about them it might say a whole hell of a lot more about you than it says about the person you are judging?

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    I will say I’m glad for the homeschool or remote learning option.

    Doesn’t seem safe to have kids packed in like a club on Saturday night. Plus some kids might not want to wear the masks all day while others won’t mind wearing it and also most kids are not the best at hygiene so ....

    I’m curious how the teachers will split their time between in person and remote students.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    US hitting records again (not the good kind) over 60k new case within last 24 hrs https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/us-r...rus-cases.html

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    FDA Warnings about certain types of hand sanitizer https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/us/fd...rnd/index.html

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coronavirus-cfr

    US Covid-19 mortality is at 4.3%. The number remained flat (so far) since May although the number of positive cases increased. Considering that any death WITH Covid is a "Covid death", the real mortality % is probably much lower.

    As one epidemiologist said: "You don't quarantine the healthy, you quarantine the sick". The country is now run by a committee called the coronavirus task force. A bloodless coup.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Protect yourself against likelihood of contracting/spreading coronavirus with face mask that have the proper material https://www.cnet.com/health/face-mas...CAD-09-10aai5b

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by Golden_Rule View Post
    Yes, as long as you give the option for home schooling, because I have grandkids who are here after school until picked up by parents, and an infirmed wife who, if she catches COVID-19 is likely dead. I am not sending my grandkids into those petri dishes, coming back here and putting Mrs GR at that kind of risk, and my daughter-in-law needs us to help her out. So, what do you do about folks in our situation. Home schooling, with the kind of assistance it is getting now, has to be in the picture.
    I hear that GR. Our school system is offering this option for those who are not comfortable returning their kids to school in August, but the wildcard is how effective the distance learning version will be.

    It was crap when our kids were forced to do it for the last quarter of the 2019-2020 school year, so really it was a lost quarter. Our kids got about 40 minutes of "face" time with their teachers each week and they relied largely upon Khan Academy and other third-party materials. If it is similarly bad going into 2020-2021, then the total loss in education time could be as bad as three quarters of an entire school year, which is a disastrous loss of educational advancement time that they will never get back.

    Now maybe the Summer has provided some time to improve the model, but I doubt it. Most school systems cannot compel teachers to work over the Summer due to negotiated contract provisions with the teacher's unions, so I doubt that these educators have been hard at work for the last 6 weeks revamping curricula to more effectively teach in a remote learning model. For those kids who are held out of school for one reason or another let's hope that I am wrong.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Here are the up to date stats on hospitalization in Texas.

    About 17% of the beds in Texas are currently used for COVID-19 and about 19.5% are still free. That leaves 37,017 beds used by other patients. So the number of beds filled by other patients is almost 4x the number of beds used by CV-19 patients.

    In addition, the number of available beds is enough for the number of hospitalized with CV-19 to double from here if necessary.

    Finally, there are 5224 ventilators available although about 80% on ventilators end up dying.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    An interesting chart
    Attached Images Attached Images

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by Adelina View Post
    “We now have mortality data for the first few months of 2020 for many countries, and, as you might expect, there were steep increases associated with the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in each one.”

    “Surprisingly, however, these increases did not begin before the lockdowns were imposed, but after. Moreover, in almost every case, they began immediately after. Often, mortality numbers were on a downward trend before suddenly reversing course after lockdowns were decreed.”

    “This is an astonishing finding…”

    "You will notice that only after each country (or city) was locked down did the increases begin. Moreover, they began immediately, and in nearly every case, precipitously.”

    “All this leads us to the following questions, which we pose to all those who continue to defend the use of lockdowns as an effective means to prevent excess deaths.”

    “Q: Why was there no significant increase in overall mortality, in any country we have good data for, before the start of lockdowns?”

    “Q: Why does a precise and exact correlation exist between the start of lockdowns and significant rises in overall mortality?”

    "Q: How is it, moreover, that this moment in time [i.e., the imposition of lockdowns] happened to fall immediately before that precipitous rise?”

    “Q: If health authorities vastly underestimated the prevalence of the virus at the beginning of the pandemic, why did the virus nevertheless wait until lockdowns were imposed to suddenly start killing at levels which exceeded normal deaths?”

    —To that last question, I would respond: No virus would wait. We’re not talking about a virus at all. We’re talking about the sudden effects of the lockdowns.

    And those sudden death-effects would come crashing down, first, and immediately, on the most vulnerable people in these countries:

    THE LOCKDOWNS FORCED THE PREMATURE DEATHS OF OLD PEOPLE.

    PEOPLE WHO HAD BEEN SUFFERING FROM MULTIPLE HEALTH CONDITIONS FOR YEARS, WHO HAD BEEN TREATED WITH TOXIC MEDICAL DRUGS, WHOSE IMMUNE SYSTEMS WERE ALREADY SEVERELY COMPROMISED…

    AND WHO ARE SUDDENLY TERRIFIED BY TWO MORE FACTORS—THE POSSIBILITY OF A COVID-19 DIAGNOSIS, AND ISOLATION FROM FRIENDS AND FAMILY. THESE TWO FACTORS PUSH THEM OVER THE EDGE AND THEY DIE.

    Especially in nursing homes; but also in hospitals, and in their homes.

    This is the true face of “COVID.”

    https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020...zen-countries/
    In most cases, people do not die right away from coronavirus. There is generally a lag time of several weeks, after becoming sick. States and countries that went into lockdown, did so when many people started getting sick, not when many people started dying. That is why there was an increase in death after initially going into lockdown. After going up after lock down, the number of deaths declined significantly. In New York, the number of deaths declined from over 800 a day to less than 50. Cities, states, and countries that locked down earliest had the fewest deaths. The ones that locked down latest, or that did not lock down at all, had the most deaths. Greece was one of the first countries in Europe to lock down, and so far has had 193 deaths. Sweden, whose population is approximately the same, has not locked down, and has had 5,500 deaths so far. San Francisco was one of the first, or the first major city to lock down, and has had 50 deaths so far. Sweden's decision not to go into lock down has resulted in thousands more people dying there than their neighbors did, who did lockdown. Despite choosing to keep their economy open, nothing was gained, as Sweden's economy fared little better than their neighbors.

    From:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/b...ronavirus.html

    “They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.”

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  28. #295
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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    ^Eagle, Sweden's death rates were far below NY by any measure, despite the fact that it never shut down. The other fallacies in your logic are the assumptions that Sweden would not have fared much worse economically if it had locked down or that death rates would have been significantly better. You really shouldn't rely upon the NYT for critical analysis and most of their melodramatic pieces are about as well researched as those rags you routinely post on here like Puffpost.

    You're also dead wrong on your analysis of U.S. states. FL and TX locked down later, opened sooner and never really locked down like NY. NJ and CT to begin with, but on a per capita basis both states have fared very well in terms of death rates compared to the hyper lockdown locations. The key differentiating statistic was NOT lockdown timing, but rather how well each state did in protecting its nursing homes. The only reason that Sweden didn't kick NY's ass even more than it did is because they made poor early policy decisions to keep COVID positive elderly in nursing homes instead of isolating them, kinda' similar to what NY/NJ/CT did in sending them back when they were still sick.

    Here is something else to consider: You realize that NY, NJ and CT are still effectively on lockdown, no? How do you think they will fare once they finally cut the crap and open their economies back up? As has become clear, this has not gone away and all that TX and FL did with their lockdowns was delay the inevitable.

    I feel like this is getting circular now. I know I posted this in response to these points before...

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    ^Eagle, Sweden's death rates were far below NY by any measure, despite the fact that it never shut down. The other fallacies in your logic are the assumptions that Sweden would not have fared much worse economically if it had locked down or that death rates would have been significantly better. You really shouldn't rely upon the NYT for critical analysis and most of their melodramatic pieces are about as well researched as those rags you routinely post on here like Puffpost.
    You can't refute what was said, so you attack the source. You refuse to acknowledge that the policies you advocate have failed dramatically. It's not just the NYT saying this.

    https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/...ge-anyway.html

    https://www.politico.eu/article/swed...9-light-touch/

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    You're also dead wrong on your analysis of U.S. states. FL and TX locked down later, opened sooner and never really locked down like NY. NJ and CT to begin with, but on a per capita basis both states have fared very well in terms of death rates compared to the hyper lockdown locations. The key differentiating statistic was NOT lockdown timing, but rather how well each state did in protecting its nursing homes. The only reason that Sweden didn't kick NY's ass even more than it did is because they made poor early policy decisions to keep COVID positive elderly in nursing homes instead of isolating them, kinda' similar to what NY/NJ/CT did in sending them back when they were still sick.
    Now you're making up your own "facts". New York was hit much harder than FL and TX early on, which is why New York fared the worst. More international travelers go through NYC than probably any other area in the US. By the time the virus spread to FL and TX, measures were already being taken to prevent the spread. Right now, NY is faring much better than FL and TX. The only reason why FL and TX aren't doing as badly as NY did, is because many people are continuing to practice social distancing and are sheltering at home, even though those states have reopened. When NY was first hit, nobody was doing that.

    Even if you exclude all nursing home deaths, the US has fared far worse than countries that locked down early and took strong measures from the start.

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    Here is something else to consider: You realize that NY, NJ and CT are still effectively on lockdown, no? How do you think they will fare once they finally cut the crap and open their economies back up? As has become clear, this has not gone away and all that TX and FL did with their lockdowns was delay the inevitable.
    If they follow the advice of scientists as most European countries have done, instead of doing what you advocate, I'm sure they'll do much better. Here's a graph showing the difference.



    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    I feel like this is getting circular now. I know I posted this in response to these points before...
    It's because you continue to make the same false claims and ignore facts you don't like. At this point, it's not worth even trying to reason with you. You're always going to ignore facts and instead make condescending comments. You're now being placed on ignore.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by miss.a.p1600 View Post
    Protect yourself against likelihood of contracting/spreading coronavirus with face mask that have the proper material https://www.cnet.com/health/face-mas...CAD-09-10aai5b
    I must be getting old because I can't recall if I posted this already? {LOL}

    I have to admit that I broke down and took my ass out when I was called by a friend who use to attend our parties and hit a few of the PA clubs that had opened. Face masks were prevalent, but not by the customers at barside once they were seated.

    I behaved myself but it was great to get out with a friend and socialize some. I can see where, eventually, this sheltering in place biz could make one a tad bananas.
    Fiat justitia, pereat mundus.


    BTW, while we are on the subject, is it needed to point out the obvious: That it is just possible that if you are willing to judge the worth of someone simply by what you read on a website about them it might say a whole hell of a lot more about you than it says about the person you are judging?

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    You really shouldn't rely upon the NYT for critical analysis and most of their melodramatic pieces are about as well researched as those rags you routinely post on here like Puffpost.

    ...I feel like this is getting circular now. I know I posted this in response to these points before...
    What is this? I don't know what the hell Puffpost is but maybe it's some joke you are making.

    I don't always agree with the NYT (like FOX is any better ) but no need to get snarky: '...those rags you routinely post'.

    Maybe I missed something to provoke this but I won't have it.

    If it's getting circular better to just drop it man.
    You must have chaos within you to give birth to a dancing star.
    Friedrich Nietzsche

    Free your mind, and your ass will follow.
    George Clinton

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    ‘I thought this was a hoax’: Patient in their 30s dies after attending Covid party

    http://news4sanantonio.com/news/loca...ng-covid-party

    But go on about how it’s only folks in nursing homes and we have the situation under control

    P.S. Houston’s ICUs are full and ordering freezer trucks because the morgues are overwhelmed and Florida is not far behind with their exponential case count. Give it a week. Y’all deniers and conspiracy theorists are embarrassing.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    7000 Rona patients currently hospitalized in Florida

    https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coro...kz4-story.html

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