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Thread: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

  1. #301
    God/dess rickdugan's Avatar
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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    You can't refute what was said, so you attack the source. You refuse to acknowledge that the policies you advocate have failed dramatically. It's not just the NYT saying this.

    https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/...ge-anyway.html

    https://www.politico.eu/article/swed...9-light-touch/


    Now you're making up your own "facts". New York was hit much harder than FL and TX early on, which is why New York fared the worst. More international travelers go through NYC than probably any other area in the US. By the time the virus spread to FL and TX, measures were already being taken to prevent the spread. Right now, NY is faring much better than FL and TX. The only reason why FL and TX aren't doing as badly as NY did, is because many people are continuing to practice social distancing and are sheltering at home, even though those states have reopened. When NY was first hit, nobody was doing that.

    Even if you exclude all nursing home deaths, the US has fared far worse than countries that locked down early and took strong measures from the start.


    If they follow the advice of scientists as most European countries have done, instead of doing what you advocate, I'm sure they'll do much better. Here's a graph showing the difference.


    It's because you continue to make the same false claims and ignore facts you don't like. At this point, it's not worth even trying to reason with you. You're always going to ignore facts and instead make condescending comments. You're now being placed on ignore.
    I absolutely can argue with the so-called "source" and I did. They are cherry picking what they think is important and spinning it to support their beliefs, as are the other "sources" you posted. In doing so they are speculating on what-if death rate and economic differentials when they have absolutely no way of knowing if they are right or not.

    Sweden's death rate per capita is far lower than New York's as well as several European countries who fully locked down, including the UK, France and Italy. We don't know how much better it would have been if they have locked down, nor do we know how much worse the economy would have become had they done so. It is a failure of logic to try to compare Sweden to other cherry picked countries just because they happen to be close by. Each country is different and has its own unique circumstances. That goes not only to the NYT's article but to your EU chart too.

    I never make a false claim or use a smokescreen and, as a general matter, I detest sources that do a shoddy job or research and ignore what they don't like. The truth is that articles criticizing Sweden are horribly premature because we don't know how this is going to shake out yet almost anywhere. There is evidence that Sweden's curve is starting to flatten, while we and several other countries still have a long way to go becuase we have delayed the inevitable with these lockdowns. It will be at least a year from now before we are in a position to tell one way or another.

  2. #302
    God/dess rickdugan's Avatar
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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by Djoser View Post
    What is this? I don't know what the hell Puffpost is but maybe it's some joke you are making.

    I don't always agree with the NYT (like FOX is any better ) but no need to get snarky: '...those rags you routinely post'.

    Maybe I missed something to provoke this but I won't have it.

    If it's getting circular better to just drop it man.
    No snark intended. Puffpost was a nickname for Huffpost. The NYT used to be a respectable source of information once upon a time, always a bit slanted but at least they tried to provide some balance in their stories. But over the last couple of years it has become increasingly shoddy. I guess that's what happens when you shit can a large percentage of your copy editors to make room for stream of consciousness bloggers. It has been sad to see such a storied institution fall so low.

    And on that note this will be my last post in this thread. Nobody's mind is going to be changed here. We will just have to see how things shake out over the coming months.
    Last edited by rickdugan; 07-11-2020 at 04:43 PM.

  3. #303
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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    I hear that GR. Our school system is offering this option for those who are not comfortable returning their kids to school in August, but the wildcard is how effective the distance learning version will be.

    It was crap when our kids were forced to do it for the last quarter of the 2019-2020 school year, so really it was a lost quarter. Our kids got about 40 minutes of "face" time with their teachers each week and they relied largely upon Khan Academy and other third-party materials. If it is similarly bad going into 2020-2021, then the total loss in education time could be as bad as three quarters of an entire school year, which is a disastrous loss of educational advancement time that they will never get back.

    Now maybe the Summer has provided some time to improve the model, but I doubt it. Most school systems cannot compel teachers to work over the Summer due to negotiated contract provisions with the teacher's unions, so I doubt that these educators have been hard at work for the last 6 weeks revamping curricula to more effectively teach in a remote learning model. For those kids who are held out of school for one reason or another let's hope that I am wrong.
    It wasn’t lost with us as my daughter-in-law got the comprehensive lesson plans from their teachers and we took the teachers place with the teachers spending face time with us to review we had taught the lessons well. If anything personal attention was more prevalent and we were even tougher than the classroom. The only thing they list out on was socialization.

    It took our time but it was worth it.
    Fiat justitia, pereat mundus.


    BTW, while we are on the subject, is it needed to point out the obvious: That it is just possible that if you are willing to judge the worth of someone simply by what you read on a website about them it might say a whole hell of a lot more about you than it says about the person you are judging?

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    RIP strip club industry until we get a vaccine. Sad.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by Filmer2233 View Post
    RIP strip club industry until we get a vaccine. Sad.
    Good luck thinking the a rushed, unproven vaccine financed by Bill Gates will save us.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    In Sweden (pop. 10.25m) – where there was no lockdown– only 70 people under 49 years old have died of Covid-19, out of 5,482 total virus deaths (1.3%) so far. For context, average annual deaths in Sweden over the last 5 years for under-49-year-olds have been 3,417.

    Presently, Sweden is very close to reaching herd immunity which is a condition in which the majority have developed antibodies that will help to fend-off similar sars-covid infections in the future. Absent a vaccine, herd immunity is the best that can be hoped for. It ensures that future outbreaks will be less disruptive and less lethal. Take a look at this excerpt from an article at the Off-Guardian which helps to explain what’s really going on:

    "Sweden’s health minister understood that the only chance to beat COVID-19 was to get the Swedish population to a Herd Immunity Threshold against COVID-19, and that’s exactly what they have done…

    The Herd Immunity Threshold (“HIT”) for COVID-19 is between 10-20%.

    This fact gets less press than any other. Most people understand the basic concept of herd immunity and the math behind it. In the early days, some public health officials speculated that COVID-19’s HIT was 70%. Obviously, the difference between a HIT of 70% and a HIT of 10-20% is dramatic, and the lower the HIT, the quicker a virus will burn out as it loses the ability to infect more people, which is exactly what COVID-19 is doing everywhere, including the U.S, which is why the death curve above looks the way it looks.

    Scientists from Oxford, Virginia Tech, and the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, all recently explained the HIT of COVID-19 in this paper:

    We searched the literature for estimates of individual variation in propensity to acquire or transmit COVID-19 or other infectious diseases and overlaid the findings as vertical lines in Figure 3. Most CV estimates are comprised between 2 and 4, a range where naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may place populations over the herd immunity threshold once as few as 10-20% of its individuals are immune….

    Naturally acquired herd immunity to COVID-19 combined with earnest protection of the vulnerable elderly – especially nursing home and assisted living facility residents — is an eminently reasonable and practical alternative to the dubious panacea of mass compulsory vaccination against the virus.

    One of the most vocal members of the scientific community discussing COVID-19’s HIT is Stanford’s Nobel-laureate Dr. Michael Levitt. Back on May 4, he gave this great interview to the Stanford Daily where he advocated for Sweden’s approach of letting COVID-19 spread naturally through the community until you arrive at HIT. He stated:

    If Sweden stops at about 5,000 or 6,000 deaths, we will know that they’ve reached herd immunity, and we didn’t need to do any kind of lockdown. My own feeling is that it will probably stop because of herd immunity. COVID is serious, it’s at least a serious flu. But it’s not going to destroy humanity as people thought.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Today Florida shattered the largest single-day record of coronavirus infections.

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/flori...navirus-record

    Florida set a new national record for the largest daily increase in coronavirus cases in the United States on Sunday, while infections continue to spike around the world.

    The state added at least 15,299 positive COVID-19 cases, for a total of 269,811, and recorded 45 more deaths, according to state Department of Health statistics.

    California had the previous record of daily positive cases — 11,694, set on Wednesday. New York had 11,571 on April 15.

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  10. #308
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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by Adelina View Post
    In Sweden (pop. 10.25m) – where there was no lockdown– only 70 people under 49 years old have died of Covid-19, out of 5,482 total virus deaths (1.3%) so far. For context, average annual deaths in Sweden over the last 5 years for under-49-year-olds have been 3,417.
    How is someone over 49 years of old dying, more acceptable than someone under 49? So far, Sweden has one of the highest death rates in the world from coronavirus. One of the few countries with a higher death rate than the US.

    Quote Originally Posted by Adelina View Post
    Presently, Sweden is very close to reaching herd immunity which is a condition in which the majority have developed antibodies that will help to fend-off similar sars-covid infections in the future. Absent a vaccine, herd immunity is the best that can be hoped for. It ensures that future outbreaks will be less disruptive and less lethal. Take a look at this excerpt from an article at the Off-Guardian which helps to explain what’s really going on:

    "Sweden’s health minister understood that the only chance to beat COVID-19 was to get the Swedish population to a Herd Immunity Threshold against COVID-19, and that’s exactly what they have done…

    The Herd Immunity Threshold (“HIT”) for COVID-19 is between 10-20%.

    This fact gets less press than any other. Most people understand the basic concept of herd immunity and the math behind it. In the early days, some public health officials speculated that COVID-19’s HIT was 70%. Obviously, the difference between a HIT of 70% and a HIT of 10-20% is dramatic, and the lower the HIT, the quicker a virus will burn out as it loses the ability to infect more people, which is exactly what COVID-19 is doing everywhere, including the U.S, which is why the death curve above looks the way it looks.

    Scientists from Oxford, Virginia Tech, and the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, all recently explained the HIT of COVID-19 in this paper:

    We searched the literature for estimates of individual variation in propensity to acquire or transmit COVID-19 or other infectious diseases and overlaid the findings as vertical lines in Figure 3. Most CV estimates are comprised between 2 and 4, a range where naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may place populations over the herd immunity threshold once as few as 10-20% of its individuals are immune….

    Naturally acquired herd immunity to COVID-19 combined with earnest protection of the vulnerable elderly – especially nursing home and assisted living facility residents — is an eminently reasonable and practical alternative to the dubious panacea of mass compulsory vaccination against the virus.

    One of the most vocal members of the scientific community discussing COVID-19’s HIT is Stanford’s Nobel-laureate Dr. Michael Levitt. Back on May 4, he gave this great interview to the Stanford Daily where he advocated for Sweden’s approach of letting COVID-19 spread naturally through the community until you arrive at HIT. He stated:

    If Sweden stops at about 5,000 or 6,000 deaths, we will know that they’ve reached herd immunity, and we didn’t need to do any kind of lockdown. My own feeling is that it will probably stop because of herd immunity. COVID is serious, it’s at least a serious flu. But it’s not going to destroy humanity as people thought.
    From:
    https://abcnews.go.com/US/vaccine-re...ry?id=71662733

    Similarly, Sweden attempted to attain herd immunity through an approach that ultimately yielded among the highest per capita death rates from COVID-19 in the world, with no measurable associated economic gain, according to the European Commission. Only 6.1% of Sweden's population developed coronavirus antibodies by late May -- a number much lower than predicted.
    Sweden's 'herd immunity' hopes are fading as only a small fraction of the population has coronavirus antibodies

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...eriment-2020-6

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by Adelina View Post
    Good luck thinking the a rushed, unproven vaccine financed by Bill Gates will save us.
    Any vaccine would have to go through multiple trials before being approved by the FDA. If anyone wants to rush through with an unproven vaccine, it's Donald Trump. My biggest concern is that he will pressure the FDA to approve a vaccine before it's been through enough testing to show it's safe and effective.

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    Any vaccine would have to go through multiple trials before being approved by the FDA. If anyone wants to rush through with an unproven vaccine, it's Donald Trump. My biggest concern is that he will pressure the FDA to approve a vaccine before it's been through enough testing to show it's safe and effective.
    The FDA is not scared of Donald Trump.
    Now he said it a third time, and Ona drew a deep breath;

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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    I hope not.

  16. #312
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    Default Re: As states reopen, here’s how you protect yourself from the coming surge

    A speaker at the Wisconsin Republican convention, which was held in-person:

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1282117207728836608
    Last edited by eagle2; Yesterday at 08:45 PM.

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