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Thread: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

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    Default Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    Gavi , a global health organization says the number for herd immunity is a 60% vaccination rate. They do NOT count those that had Covid and recovered. Many of whom btw were subsequently vaccinated.
    Fauci , as usual , has slipped, slid and danced around the numbers. His estimate varies between 70 and 85% vaccinated. What he used to tout as a sign of optimism and hope ( "the crisis will subside once we achieve herd immunity " ) he now calls an "elusive concept " and advocates mass vaccination as the ONLY way to go.
    To date, roughly 105,000,000 U.S. residents have been FULLY vaccinated. We have had roughly 32.7 million cases of Covid i.e. that is the number of people who tested positive for the virus. Some got sick. Most did not. Some had symptoms. Most had few if any symptoms. Sadly we have had almost 600,000 deaths but , But, BUT the overwhelming majority were sick or otherwise vulnerable before they were infected. Many were in nursing homes. Almost all were obese or had some other serious co-morbidity. Almost all were over 50 years old. The vast majority were over 70.
    Nationwide, the caseload numbers have shrunk dramatically. Many states now go for a day or two with ZERO deaths and hospitalization rates well below 100 per day. Today, right now, there is not a single U.S. hospital that cannot handle Covid cases at current rates with one caveat. We do not know YET the full impact of all the Covid positive border crossers that test positive but are then released anyway. So far, Texas, California, New Mexico and Arizona are holding up.
    While restrictions are being lifted and in some cases eliminated altogether, many states still have draconian and mostly ineffective restrictions and requirements. Please, please the numbers have been posted ad nauseum past the point of being boring. The supposed correlation between restrictions and Covid rates has been mostly disproven. As I have previously pointed out : Bandanas are useless ; hospital and surgical masks are of limited effect ; the N95 mask is good and the most effective is a good face mask AND a face shield. Those measures are more prophylactic for others than for the user !

    What worries me is that too many of the powers that be are acting and sounding as though we will NEVER reach herd immunity. That facemasks and restrictions on indoor and OUTDOOR gatherings ( even Fauci says that they are safe ) are going to be permanent parts of the "new normal ". I'll give these nattering nannies what I honestly think is an undeserved benefit of the doubt and assume that they are well intentioned. That they honestly believe that all the disruption, destruction, damage and expense of the last year was both necessary and proved to be effective. The issue for right NOW is for how much longer ? Every time, and I mean EVERY time someone asks Fauci or the head of the CDC or NIH for a number or estimated time frame they REFUSE to say. Not even hedging their bets with words like "estimate or guesstimate" or various gradients of optimism and caveats. They don't want to talk about "elusive concepts " but instead are pushing anyone and everyone to get vaccinated. Well a lot of people do not want to get vaccinated. Right, wrong , based on the science or not.

    To try and be proactive against any assumption that I am an "anti-vaxxer" , I've had all my shots. I think everyone should get the vaccine unless there is a sound medical or scientific reason not to. And there might be . The total deaths from the 2019 flu shot was roughly 200 people. So far , for ALL the Covid vaccines it is roughly 3,000 people. That's one (1) in every 35,000 people approx. Much better odds than facing the Covid virus without being vaccinated. 1 out of every 54 infected people die WITH the Covid virus. Maybe not FROM the virus but after testing positive for same. Instead of blithe reassurances about the safety of the vaccine ( based on months , not the usual and standard YEARS of testing and reported experience ) I think public education and PSA's ought to just emphasize the numbers . All the people who play the numbers and otherwise gamble legally and illegally ought to appreciate the current odds .
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 05-07-2021 at 07:38 AM.
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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    I've had one of my Phizer shots, my second is on May 11th. But other than that I can't say.

    And they're saying we're not going to get to Herd Immunity, too much Vaccine Hesitancy. It's not so much anti-vaxxers It's more people that are afraid of it, I guess I can't blame them. It did come pretty quick, but the reason for that is that we just have better technology now.

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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Raziel View Post
    I've had one of my Phizer shots, my second is on May 11th. But other than that I can't say.

    And they're saying we're not going to get to Herd Immunity, too much Vaccine Hesitancy. It's not so much anti-vaxxers It's more people that are afraid of it, I guess I can't blame them. It did come pretty quick, but the reason for that is that we just have better technology now.
    Good point. That is another worrisome factoid. The RATE of people getting vaccinated in the U.S. is DECLINING ! Given the current oversupply of the vaccine and the increased ease of getting a shot, the numbers ought to be going UP !
    Another issue is the vaccination of children. Many parents are leery of having their children vaccinated. They constitute the LEAST vulnerable segment of the population and Fauci et. al. are talking about vaccinating infants ! Children as young as SIX MONTHS ? ! ? !

    Another issue nobody is talking about afaik : Why isn't somebody , somewhere doing a deep dive into the alleged or suspected fatal reactions to the vaccines ?
    1. Is there really a connection or is it just coincidence ?
    2. Is it the vaccine ; the recipient or a combination of both causing the adverse results ?
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 05-06-2021 at 10:28 AM.
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    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    As Eric pointed out, the primary component not factored into "herd immunity" considerations is a realistic estimate of how many people were already infected. The CDC did several antibody studies last year which suggested that for every reported infection, there were likely 3-4 people who already had antibodies but had never been tested.

    So projecting out conservatively for Florida, which had 2.2 million reported cases, it is likely the number of people actually carrying antibodies is closer to 8 million. We have also had 9 million people vaccinated. Now the actual number of people with resistance is certainly not 17 million as there is definitely overlap in those groups, but not as much as one would think given that it was largely young people getting infected but largely old people who were vaccinated.

    Florida has a population of 22 million people, so even if we considered 3 million as the overlap number, that would mean that 14 million already have resistance. Then factor in millions of young children, who seem to have much more natural resistance to this virus, and the simple reality is that the virus has a lot fewer people left to infect.

    The result of all of this is that our numbers continue to decline. Testing positivity rates dipped below 5% yesterday for the first time in months. Hospitalizations and deaths are plummeting too. It is not unreasonable to assume that even with lower vaccination rates and ongoing infections of younger people, this thing will burn itself out to a much lower level fairly soon. And this is in Florida, where things are wide open now and even mask use is iffy at best.

    I guess that the residents of each state are going to have to decide for themselves how much more they think is reasonable from a restriction standpoint.

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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    ^^^ All true BUT the latest Pfizer studies document and prove that vaccination results in ten times ( 10 X !!!! ) the antibody production as compared to someone who had the virus. Meaning that vaccination IS very effective against the virus AND the variants. As with most flu vaccines , even when vaccinated people get the virus and have symptoms the severity and duration are dramatically reduced i.e. people ought to get vaccinated. Most of the vaccine resistant are concentrated among the Undocumented , the African American community and rural Trumpsters. I know he has come out and advocated getting vaccinated but he ought to do and say more imho. Given all his missteps and factually delinquent spoutings and bloviations it's the least he can do.
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    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    I think herd immunity will vary by region. Some areas will reach it, others won't.

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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    Herd immunity is alos dependent on population density. You live in the city and a flareup is much more likely.

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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    Quote Originally Posted by sarah101 View Post
    Herd immunity is alos dependent on population density. You live in the city and a flareup is much more likely.
    A lot more has to do with the behavior of the people than the population density. If a region has a high vaccination rate and/or the people wear masks and social distance, their case rate and death rate will be a lot lower than regions that don't. South Dakota is one of the least densely populated states in the US, but over the summer they had the highest case rate and death rate in the world. Japan and South Korea are two of the most densely populated countries in the world, and their case rates and death rates were far lower than in the US.

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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    I think herd immunity will vary by region. Some areas will reach it, others won't.
    I don't know how meaningful that is given our level of mobility and how much traveling we are doing.
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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    We are not going to reach true herd immunity through vaccinations. There are simply too many young people who don't want it. Also, mask/social distancing mandates will not be around for much longer. At the moment there are politicians in certain states trying to tie vaccination rates to easing restrictions, but that's going to fall apart under its own weight pretty soon. People are simply get fed up.

    We are already seeing this in FL. Now granted we are ahead of the curve in a number of ways, even as we have some of the largest percentages of unvaccinated adults. But mask mandates are becoming more pointless every single day now that our vulnerable are vaccinated. In FL most of our mask mandates are already gone now and I suspect the rest (schools, churches, businesses) will be gone by July. I suspect that there will be similar hard population pushes in more restrictive states before long.

    These restrictions were never supposed to be about eliminating spread, they were supposed to be about limiting deaths and hospitalizations. Now that the vaccine is in the arms of our most vulnerable, this is already happening. Pretty soon we won't want to hear about any of this, including hyperventilating stories about flare-ups. We are going to be living with COVID for some time to come, just like we do with the flu each year. So we do what we always do, protect the vulnerable and anyone else who wants it through vaccinations and then get on with our lives.

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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    If only. That is how things are SUPPOSED to work. The problem is that we forgot about liberty in exchange for fear of disease. And we gave a LOT of power to nitwits like Cuomo , DeBlasio, Murphy , Newsom , Whitmer et.al. and unelected nattering nanny bureaucrats like Fauci. Covid was the best thing that ever happened to Fauci. His record as head of the CDC Office of Immunology and Allergy was actually mediocre before Covid and on balance, he has done a poor job with Covid. I've detailed his errors and mistakes in previous posts and won't risk boring anyone here. Suffice to say , his positions changed more than Trump's. He was wrong about almost everything concerning Covid from Day One. The same guy who said a vaccine was "years away " and then that it was only "part of the solution" has now put all his eggs in the vaccination basket. He used to say that "herd immunity " was measurable and achievable. Now he calls it an "elusive concept" where the metrics depend on the latest political breezes. It looks like he has finally , FINALLY recognized Covid for what it is : A bad version of the flu. Most dangerous and deadly with the most vulnerable EXCEPT for children. Unlike the flu , Covid poses minimal risk to children of all ages. From babies to young adults.

    Either Covid will burn out as most viruses do or it will be an annual health problem like the flu that we will have to deal with. An annual Covid shot is likely.

    The point is that somebody like Fauci never admits error and never voluntarily gives up power and influence such as he has now. He has brilliantly courted the mainstream media and Biden's handlers so that he is the "go to guy" on Covid. He's essentially the High Priest of the Covid Cult and Defender of the Faith when anyone questions the orthodoxy of current policy.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 05-12-2021 at 11:04 AM.
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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    Just got my second shot, so far no problems. I'll let everyone know if I get sick from it.

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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    If only. That is how things are SUPPOSED to work. The problem is that we forgot about liberty in exchange for fear of disease. And we gave a LOT of power to nitwits like Cuomo , DeBlasio, Murphy , Newsom , Whitmer et.al. and unelected nattering nanny bureaucrats like Fauci. Covid was the best thing that ever happened to Fauci. His record as head of the CDC Office of Immunology and Allergy was actually mediocre before Covid and on balance, he has donw a poor job with Covid. I've detailed his errors and mistakes in previous posts and won't risk boring anyone here. Suffice to say , his positions changed more than Trump's. He was wrong about almost everything concerning Covid from Day One. The same guy who said a vaccine was "years away " and then that it was only "part of the solution" has now put all his eggs in the vaccination basket. He used to say that "herd immunity " was measurable and achievable. Now he calls it an "elusive concept" where the metrics depend on the latest political breezes. It looks like he has finally , FINALLY recognized Covid for what it is : A bad version of the flu. Most dangerous and deadly with the most vulnerable EXCEPT for children. Unlike the flu , Covid poses minimal risk to children of all ages. From babies to young adults.

    Either Covid will burn out as most viruses do or it will be an annual health problem like the flu that we will have to deal with. An annual Covid shot is likely.

    The point is that somebody like Fauci never admits error and never voluntarily gives up power and influence such as he has now. He has brilliantly courted the mainstream media and Biden's handlers so that he is the "go to guy" on Covid. He's essentially the High Priest of the Covid Cult and Defender of the Faith when anyone questions the orthodoxy of current policy.
    I hear all of that Eric and it's hard to disagree with most of it. But nevertheless even the states with more skittish populations, who eagerly and quickly handed over their liberties for a little supposed safety (the Founding Fathers must have been rolling in their graves), will eventually get fed up. It just may take them a bit longer than the less risk averse folks in other places. But the longer the vaccine is widely available, the harder it will be to justify mask mandates and other restrictions. Places like TX, FL, GA and SD may be among the first to ditch lingering restrictions, but eventually the others will follow suit.

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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    It's funny. I was in Rhinebeck , N.Y. yesterday. First time in a long time. Hadn't been there since years before Covid. There are signs all over Downtown - You MUST wear a mask. OUTDOORS ! Even if you have been vaccinated !
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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    It's funny. I was in Rhinebeck , N.Y. yesterday. First time in a long time. Hadn't been there since years before Covid. There are signs all over Downtown - You MUST wear a mask. OUTDOORS ! Even if you have been vaccinated !
    LOL. Yeah, there's still some lingering craziness out there for sure. But I still believe that this will flush itself out over the coming months. I already shared what's been happening in FL and that we'll probably be finished with the last vestiges of this stuff by July, including mask mandates in schools, churches and businesses. In other "red" states, their respective Governors are also pushing to return things to normal, which includes getting rid of the mask mandates. In an ever increasing number of school districts around the country, parents are also starting to push for a return to normal.

    The overriding theme is the same: Now that teachers, the elderly, younger people with comorbidities and anyone else who wants the vaccine has received it, what's the point of continuing with this nonsense? The numbers are plummeting everywhere, especially deaths and hospitalizations. Anyone who dies from it now made an active decision not to get vaccinated.

    I'm fairly positive that the "blue" states will eventually get to that tipping point as well. It just may take a little longer due to cultural differences.

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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    I was told that Rhinebeck has the outdoor mask mandate for its Downtown area because it gets very crowded on weekends and the sidewalks get packed.
    Still seems ridiculous if you have been vaccinated.
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    Default Re: Herd Immunity - Are we there yet ?

    NO It is inhumane to consider this.

    How many antelopes in a huge herd have to die before the herd is essentially disease-free? Why are humans any different?

    Get your shot ASAP. Loved ones have died. Awful lot of grieving because of this pandemic. SAD
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