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Thread: Stagflation is here !

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    You rarely posts facts and figures. Instead, you try to get "facts" to fit your narrative.



    You continue to post this lie, again, and again, and again, even after being called out on it multiple times. When Trump left office, oil production was 11 million barrels a day. Current production is 11.8 million bpd.



    You're completely clueless as to how the oil market works. Whatever the final cost of oil from Saudi Arabia is, that is what American oil producers are going to sell it for. We don't have control over how much oil WE produce. We produce as much oil as oil companies are willing to produce at whatever the price of oil is. If Saudi Arabia wants a higher price for oil, they can just as easily cut production as we can increase production.

    If it would cost an oil broker in NJ $100 a barrel to buy oil from Saudi Arabia, why would an oil producer in Texas sell it for any less?



    When it comes to economics, you're completely clueless as well. Your knowledge is less than zero. The only thing you understand is that you hate President Biden and are going to find fault with everything he does. The price of oil is up everywhere, not just in the US. Inflation is up everywhere, not just in the US. You don't have even the slightest understanding of basic economic concepts, such as how supply and demand works.



    You're just making stuff up. Putin started moving troops near Ukraine's border before the US withdrew from Afghanistan. You're completely disconnected from reality when it comes to Trump. Trump was Putin's lapdog. Putin did make aggressive moves when Trump was in office. You don't know what was going on in Syria? Putin wanted Trump reelected, which is why he didn't invade Ukraine when Trump was in office.
    Rotflmao ! Eagle you are a scream ! Not only do you never admit to a mistake , never apologize even when you clearly go over the line, are quick to resort to name calling and insults but you are the three most dishonest posters in this thread. I took the trouble and double checked what in fact I really did post on oil production. As usual, you either have a poor memory or have faulty reading comprehension. On March 17,2022, I clearly posted : That oil production under Trump peaked in 2019 at almost 13 million barrels and that it had declined when he left office. In my post of May16, 2022 I clearly posted that oil production peaked in March 2020. I NEVER said it was 13 million barrels when he skulked out of the Oval Office. Go ahead. Do your own search and show me where I actually posted what you falsely claimed I did. I don't mind you disagreeing with me, criticizing me or even trying to correct me. Just try to get your facts straight FIRST ! The change alone would be worth it. Given how often you post a link claiming that it says "A ,B & C " when in actual fact it says something different, I think you should be a lot more hesitant in calling anyone else "dishonest" or "Clueless ". It doesn't bother me when you do it. I just consider the source and move on.

    If you go through my past posts just on oil production you will find plenty of indisputable facts that I, me , this guy , posted. Some you accept . Many you try to ignore and some you just don't like so you try to accuse me of making them up. Then I respond with the source or sources for same which usually shuts you up.

    By January, 2021 when Trump left the White House and it was ready for fumigation , we were just starting to recover economically from Covid. It was AFTER the Russians and Saudis had glutted the market driving the price of oil down to $25 a barrel. After Trump persuaded the Saudis to cut production the price had rebounded to roughly $50 a barrel.

    Btw, Rick posted similar numbers . I'm not sure but I think you were sulking at the time and had him on "Ignore".

    If the U.S. can't control its own oil production then how and why did it go UP after Reagan deregulated ? And after fracking came into vogue ? And after Trump deregulated ?

    The numbers posted on inflation in general and energy prices in particular are all over the place. They are what they are. They amount to a tax on the incomes of Americans and are felt most acutely by the poor and middle class. I just gassed up today and spent a third more than I spent back in January ,2021. I blame Biden and the Dems. You do not and instead call me "hopelessly clueless". There is a LONG list of eminent people who agree with me and disagree with you. I suppose that according to you they are equally "clueless".
    Steve Forbes, Steve Moore, Larry Kudlow , Ron Insana , Charlie Gasparino , Arthur Laffer , Ben Bernanke , John Catsimatidis, Elon Musk, Greg Mankiw, Olivier Blanchard, Michael Strain, David Henderson , John Cochrane , Constance Hunter at KPMG, Tyler Cowen and Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama. You can discount some of the foregoing based on "ideology" or "politics" but it gets even more damning for Biden and his policies. Not only Larry Summers but Steven Rattner, Jason Furman , Jeff Bezos , Lloyd Blankfein and the Editorial Board of The Washington Post have been highly critical of Biden's policies and blame them for our current inflation. Summers, Rattner and Furman were all part of Obama's economic brain trust. All are liberal , Democrat demand side Keynesians. Both Summers and Rattner predicted that Biden's spending would cause inflation. NONE of the names listed supported Biden's wild and crazy spending. Of the three former Obama officials Summers is predicting a recession. Furman says it is at least a year away. Rattner sees a possible recession in 2024 as stated on steverattner.com. Btw, he agrees with you that inflation is not monetary but is caused by excess demand. He halfheartedly acknowledges that increasing supply would help tame inflation but says that it would take too long. Hmmm. Longer than waiting for a recession in 2024 ? Well why waste time quibbling with someone who must be clueless when it comes to economics ? Summers, Furman and Rattner have all been interviewed and have had pieces published pointing the finger squarely at Biden and his policies. They are much more your kinsmen on economics than mine and yet they agree with me and disagree with you. So please read their stuff and take THEM to task. Show them that they are "clueless" when it comes to economics and please post copies of your critiques here so we can all read along. I can't wait to see you set them all straight. Best of luck !

    READ the Mueller Report. All the silly accusations about Trump's alleged conspiring and colluding with the Russians were debunked. The Sussman trial is going on right now. Trump slapped Putin with far more sanctions than Obama ever did. Putin seized Crimea in 2014. Trump attacked Assad's military bases after he used chemical weapons and in the process killed an estimated 200 Russian "mercenaries". Putin did nothing in response. Now who was who's "lapdog" ? And I suppose it was just an amazing coincidence that Putin invaded Ukraine AFTER Biden's fiasco in Afghanistan ? Btw, guess how many Americans were killed there under Trump ? ZERO ! And Putin invaded AFTER Biden's idiotic babbling about " minor incursions". Another amazing coincidence ?
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 05-18-2022 at 08:39 AM.
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    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    You ignore the fact that Trump's policies led to oil production decreasing by 2 million bpd his last year in office. You ignore the fact that Reagan's deregulation of oil prices is still in effect today. Biden hasn't done anything to prevent oil companies from selling oil at the market price. You ignore the fact that Trump's policies led to the price of gas increasing by 25% over his first 16 months, rather than decreasing. This is the difference between rational people and people who blindly follow an ideology. You and Rick determined that the price of gas declined under Trump, based on nothing more than the fact that he implemented policies that go along with your ideology. A rational person would actually look to see what the price of gas was during Trump's term in office. It wasn't until the pandemic dramatically reduced demand, that the price of gas went down. Trump's deregulation had nothing to do with it. As I said, oil output decreased by 2 million bpd, yet the price of gas was lower than when we were producing 13 million bpd, before the pandemic. You don't understand that the price of oil is determined by worldwide supply and demand. You think it's based entirely on US production. You also don't understand that American oil producers lost massive amounts of money when the price of oil plummeted in 2020, which is the main reason why they're not doing more drilling, rather than anything Biden has done.

    You still don't understand that saying someone agrees with you doesn't prove anything, especially when many of the people you listed are nothing but crackpots.

    I don't see what the Mueller report has to do with anything in this discussion. I've already documented collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, yet you still deny it, just like you do with every other fact you don't like. Instead, you go along with Trump's lies, even knowing he's a pathological liar. Trump didn't place any sanctions on Putin. Congress did. Even after Congress passed sanctions, Trump refused to implement them.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8184866.html

    There weren't ZERO Americans killed in Afghanistan while Trump was in office. What is wrong with you that you accept Trump's lies without question? Before believing Trump's lies, I strongly recommend using this website to fact check:

    https://www.google.com/

    You're just making it up that Putin decided to invade Ukraine because of what happened in Afghanistan. Trump is the one who signed the withdrawal agreement with the Taliban and freed 5,000 Taliban fighters, not Biden.

  3. #278
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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    You ignore the fact that Trump's policies led to oil production decreasing by 2 million bpd his last year in office. You ignore the fact that Reagan's deregulation of oil prices is still in effect today. Biden hasn't done anything to prevent oil companies from selling oil at the market price. You ignore the fact that Trump's policies led to the price of gas increasing by 25% over his first 16 months, rather than decreasing. This is the difference between rational people and people who blindly follow an ideology. You and Rick determined that the price of gas declined under Trump, based on nothing more than the fact that he implemented policies that go along with your ideology. A rational person would actually look to see what the price of gas was during Trump's term in office. It wasn't until the pandemic dramatically reduced demand, that the price of gas went down. Trump's deregulation had nothing to do with it. As I said, oil output decreased by 2 million bpd, yet the price of gas was lower than when we were producing 13 million bpd, before the pandemic. You don't understand that the price of oil is determined by worldwide supply and demand. You think it's based entirely on US production. You also don't understand that American oil producers lost massive amounts of money when the price of oil plummeted in 2020, which is the main reason why they're not doing more drilling, rather than anything Biden has done.

    You still don't understand that saying someone agrees with you doesn't prove anything, especially when many of the people you listed are nothing but crackpots.

    I don't see what the Mueller report has to do with anything in this discussion. I've already documented collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, yet you still deny it, just like you do with every other fact you don't like. Instead, you go along with Trump's lies, even knowing he's a pathological liar. Trump didn't place any sanctions on Putin. Congress did. Even after Congress passed sanctions, Trump refused to implement them.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8184866.html

    There weren't ZERO Americans killed in Afghanistan while Trump was in office. What is wrong with you that you accept Trump's lies without question? Before believing Trump's lies, I strongly recommend using this website to fact check:

    https://www.google.com/

    You're just making it up that Putin decided to invade Ukraine because of what happened in Afghanistan. Trump is the one who signed the withdrawal agreement with the Taliban and freed 5,000 Taliban fighters, not Biden.
    Rick and I posted numbers for domestic oil production, NOT gasoline prices per se. But if you insist :

    According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration of the U.S. DOE in 2017, the national monthly average price of gasoline ranged between $2.45 gallon in January to a low of $2.14 in July and finished the year at $2.59.
    For 2018, the price started at $2.67 and finished the year at a low of $2.45 in December.
    For 2019, it started at its yearly low of $2.33 and ended at $2.64.
    In 2020 it started at $2. 63 , hit a low of 1.93 as the Covid shutdowns took hold and finished at $2.28.
    For 2021, it started at $2.42 and then went above and stayed above $3 a gallon from June through the end if the year.
    For 2022, it started at $3.41 and as of May 18 it is now at $4.57 . (The 2022 numbers are from Statista.)

    As Rick and I have posted, domestic production went up under Trump before declining thanks first to the glut created by the Saudis and Russians and then Covid. Oil went down in 2020 but NOT below the break even point. Drilling dropped because demand dropped. There was a glut and then Covid shutdowns.

    Please identify the "crackpots" on my list of eminent authorities on economics. ( Btw, according to you, am I delusional . clueless or just a crackpot ? Please make up your mind and let me know lol. ) Are you including Summers, Rattner and Furman among the "crackpots" ? Have you actually READ anything written by anyone on that list on the subject of Bidenomics ? Who ? What did they say ? You disagree , why ? Just saying some of them are "crackpots" doesn't cut it. Not when Summers and Rattner predicted exactly the sort of inflation we are seeing now.

    You have not documented any collusion or any kind of conspiracy between Trump and Russia. Collusion alone is not necessarily illegal. To be illegal it must have an illegal design , desire or purpose and Mueller found zip, zero, nada in that regard. Have you READ the Mueller Report ? Did you READ your own link ? It was from January , 2018 when Trump was still trying diplomacy with Russia. The law passed by Congress that Trump held off on enforcing said he was "allowed" to sanction Russia. Not required.

    According to Brookings.edu ( from the Brookings Institute ) Trump sanctioned Russia at least 20 times from 2017 to 2019. Four times in 2017 ; nine times in 2018 and seven times in 2019. See also Fyodor Lukyanov at carnegiemoscow.org ( part of the Carnegie Endowment ) . According to him, as of November 20, 2020 , Trump had issued 40 separate rounds of sanctions on Russia. There were a few times when Trump delayed implementing sanctions while engaged diplomatically with Putin. But in every case he ultimately agreed to what Congress had passed or imposed sanctions of his own.

    A mini mea culpa on U.S. deaths in Afghanistan. According to USA Today citing DOD numbers there were a total of 11 total U.S. deaths in Afghanistan from January, 2020 to the Biden fiasco of August 26, 2021. There were two combat deaths in January , 2020 and two more in February , 2020. There were NONE thereafter until August 26, 2021. There were 7 other non-combat deaths from accidents and the like. I exaggerated a bit and I apologize.

    Are you seriously saying that Biden projected strength , resolution and competence in HIS Afghanistan withdrawl ? Are you serious ? You do agree that he ignored the advice of his military advisors and commanders ? That our withdrawl was an avoidable fiasco ?
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 05-19-2022 at 11:50 AM.
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    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Rick and I posted numbers for domestic oil production, NOT gasoline prices per se. But if you insist :
    No, you and Rick said increased US production of oil and deregulation leads to lower prices, and prices declined under Trump, thanks to fracking. Here is your quote:

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    ENOUGH ! Afaic you are a self appointed expert. Well I am sorry but I take the time and bother to read and listen to people who are IN the oil business; or who have decades of experience analyzing and /or reporting on the oil biz; or governing states with high oil production and they ALL agree with Rick, Zofia and me and disagree with you. They ALL say that increasing domestic U.S. production will put downward pressure on prices. I know you do not like or agree with some of these people but that is what they are saying and they have HISTORY on their side. When we have increased U.S. production we have seen prices decline. It happened under Reagan ; under Clinton to a lesser extent ( it was mostly OPEC flooding the market and a very strong dollar ) and under Trump thanks mostly to fracking. We are all aware what gas was selling for when Trump left office ; a year after Biden took office and what it is selling for now.
    The facts prove you wrong. The avg. price of gasoline increased from $2.32 in Jan. 2017, when Trump took office, to $2.96 in May 2018. Increased US oil production did not lead to lower prices. You were wrong. Are you going to acknowledge that you were wrong, or are you going to deny this fact because it doesn't go along with your far-right narrative?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration of the U.S. DOE in 2017, the national monthly average price of gasoline ranged between $2.45 gallon in January to a low of $2.14 in July and finished the year at $2.59.
    For 2018, the price started at $2.67 and finished the year at a low of $2.45 in December.
    For 2019, it started at its yearly low of $2.33 and ended at $2.64.
    In 2020 it started at $2. 63 , hit a low of 1.93 as the Covid shutdowns took hold and finished at $2.28.
    For 2021, it started at $2.42 and then went above and stayed above $3 a gallon from June through the end if the year.
    For 2022, it started at $3.41 and as of May 18 it is now at $4.57 . (The 2022 numbers are from Statista.)
    Once again you're being dishonest. You post the lows, but leave out the highs, because showing how high the price of gas went under Trump doesn't go along with your far-right narrative.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    As Rick and I have posted, domestic production went up under Trump before declining thanks first to the glut created by the Saudis and Russians and then Covid. Oil went down in 2020 but NOT below the break even point. Drilling dropped because demand dropped. There was a glut and then Covid shutdowns.
    Yes, oil went below the break even point, which is why production declined in the US. As I've been saying, you don't have a basic understanding of how supply and demand works, nor how the oil market works.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Please identify the "crackpots" on my list of eminent authorities on economics. ( Btw, according to you, am I delusional . clueless or just a crackpot ? Please make up your mind and let me know lol. ) Are you including Summers, Rattner and Furman among the "crackpots" ? Have you actually READ anything written by anyone on that list on the subject of Bidenomics ? Who ? What did they say ? You disagree , why ? Just saying some of them are "crackpots" doesn't cut it. Not when Summers and Rattner predicted exactly the sort of inflation we are seeing now.
    Arthur Laffer and Larry Kudlow are two I can name off the top of my head. Regardless, you seem completely unable to grasp the concept, that saying that someone agrees with you, does not prove anything, other than what that person's opinion is.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    You have not documented any collusion or any kind of conspiracy between Trump and Russia. Collusion alone is not necessarily illegal. To be illegal it must have an illegal design , desire or purpose and Mueller found zip, zero, nada in that regard. Have you READ the Mueller Report ? Did you READ your own link ? It was from January , 2018 when Trump was still trying diplomacy with Russia. The law passed by Congress that Trump held off on enforcing said he was "allowed" to sanction Russia. Not required.
    I did. You're gaslighting again. Trump publicly asked Russia to hack Clinton's emails. Asking a foreign country for help in an election is against the law.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    According to Brookings.edu ( from the Brookings Institute ) Trump sanctioned Russia at least 20 times from 2017 to 2019. Four times in 2017 ; nine times in 2018 and seven times in 2019. See also Fyodor Lukyanov at carnegiemoscow.org ( part of the Carnegie Endowment ) . According to him, as of November 20, 2020 , Trump had issued 40 separate rounds of sanctions on Russia. There were a few times when Trump delayed implementing sanctions while engaged diplomatically with Putin. But in every case he ultimately agreed to what Congress had passed or imposed sanctions of his own.
    From the start, Trump tried to remove sanctions against Russia.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-adm...231301145.html

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    A mini mea culpa on U.S. deaths in Afghanistan. According to USA Today citing DOD numbers there were a total of 11 total U.S. deaths in Afghanistan from January, 2020 to the Biden fiasco of August 26, 2021. There were two combat deaths in January , 2020 and two more in February , 2020. There were NONE thereafter until August 26, 2021. There were 7 other non-combat deaths from accidents and the like. I exaggerated a bit and I apologize.

    Are you seriously saying that Biden projected strength , resolution and competence in HIS Afghanistan withdrawl ? Are you serious ? You do agree that he ignored the advice of his military advisors and commanders ? That our withdrawl was an avoidable fiasco ?
    Now you're leaving out the Americans killed in Afghanistan during Trump's first three years in office. You're being dishonest again. I never said Biden projected strength in his Afghanistan withdrawal. I said that Putin did not base his decision to invade Ukraine, based on our withdrawal from Afghanistan. You're also greatly exaggerating how bad things went in our withdrawal from there. A lot more people were killed as a result of Trump's disastrous withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria, than Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan. Trump warned Erdogan not to attack the Kurds when US forces left, and Erdogan ignored Trump's warning. You're completely disconnected from reality when it comes to Trump and Biden. Trump was a joke to foreign leaders. Foreign leaders literally laughed at Trump. Your views of Trump and Biden are based on right-wing caricatures, not reality.
    Last edited by eagle2; 05-22-2022 at 02:05 PM.

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Here are the actual reasons why US hasn't increased oil output more than we have:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/26/b...pe-russia.html

    The biggest reason oil production isn’t increasing is that U.S. energy companies and Wall Street investors are not sure that prices will stay high long enough for them to make a profit from drilling lots of new wells. Many remember how abruptly and sharply oil prices crashed two years ago, forcing companies to lay off thousands of employees, shut down wells and even seek bankruptcy protection.

    Executives at 141 oil companies surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in mid-March offered several reasons that they weren’t pumping more oil. They said they were short of workers and sand, which is used to fracture shale fields to coax oil out of rock. But the most salient reason — the one offered by 60 percent of respondents — was that investors don’t want companies to produce a lot more oil, fearing that it will hasten the end of high oil prices.

    The Dallas Fed survey found that U.S. companies need oil prices to average just $56 a barrel to break even, a little more than half the current price. But some are worried that the price could fall to as little as $50 by the end of the year.

    “There is a tremendous amount of muscle memory from Covid and the dramatic drop in prices,” said Ben Shepperd, president of the Permian Basin Petroleum Association in Midland, Texas. “If we were convinced oil prices would hold at levels of $75 a barrel or more for another three years, you would see a higher level of capital deployment.”
    Has nothing to do with President Biden's policies.
    Last edited by eagle2; 05-22-2022 at 12:22 PM.

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    Here are the actual reasons why US hasn't increased oil output more than we have:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/26/b...pe-russia.html



    Has nothing to do with President Biden's policies.
    Oil investors like high oil prices. Who knew ?
    Did you read this part ? : " But the most salient reason - the one offered by 60% of respondents - was that investors don't want companies to produce a lot more oil , fearing that it will hasten the end of high oil prices ." OMG ! Those poor deluded people. Eagle, you have your work cut out for you. You need to educate these people that higher production will not affect prices because you , the All Wise , All Knowing Eagle say so lol.

    How can you blame Trump for increases in oil prices on his watch but give Biden a pass ? That is a classic double standard and intellectual dishonesty.

    We can all look at the U.S.E.I.A. charts from the DOE ourselves. We can see that under Trump oil production at the beginning of his term was 8.8 million BPD. It peaked at just under 13 million in November, 2019. It dropped in 2020 thanks to Covid to a low of 9.7 million BPD before rising to 11 million when he left office.

    In 2017 production started at the aforementioned 8.8 million. and hit a high for the year of 10 million in November.
    2018- It started at almost 10 million and went to a high of 11.9 million in December.
    2019- Started at 11.8 million and by November it hit almost 13 million.
    2020- Started at 12.8 and declined to a low of 9.7 million in July before going up again to 11 million by the end of the year.
    2021- Started at around 11 million and stayed there , more or less, throughout the year and into 2022.

    Likewise we can look at the gasoline price charts from the same source and see that when Obama started his first term
    in January , 2009 gasoline sold for a National average of $1.84 a gallon. It peaked at $3.95 a gallon in April 2012 but had dropped to $2.45 a gallon when he left office in January, 2017 . Trump took over and the price went up as high as $2.98 in May, 2018 but by the end of that year it dropped to $2.45. In 2019 it started at $2.33 , went up to $2.94 in May , 2019 and dropped to $2.64 by the end of that year. When Trump left office it was $2.42. It NEVER went over $3 a gallon under Trump. Under Biden it has not been below $3 since April, 2021.

    U.S. Oil production peaked at almost 13 million BPD in November ,2019 and the price of gasoline went DOWN from a Quarterly average of $2.59 a gallon for the 4th Quarter of 2019 to a low of $2.41 for the First Quarter of 2020. Production UP ; Prices DOWN ! READ the U.S.E.I.A. charts for yourself. BOTH charts. Oil production and gasoline prices. By January, 2020 prices had gone DOWN from a high of $2.94 in May, 2019 to $ 2.63 . It dropped further in February, 2020 to $2.53 and then down again to $2.32 in March,2020 when the Covid shutdowns started. There is a lag of 40 to 50 days from oil field to gas pump. Crude has to be transported to the refinery , refined and then transported to the wholesalers and then retail gas stations.

    As I posted, when Biden took office gas sold for a monthly national average of $2.42 a gallon. It has done nothing but go up, Up , UP !

    Higher energy prices combined with a loose Fed and excessive spending to take inflation from 1.4 % when Trump left to where it is now. But of course none of it is Biden's fault. Not even diesel prices which are well over $6 a gallon and even over $7 in many parts of the country. That directly affects anything shipped by truck or train with diesel locomotives.

    Oh btw, we again have an inverted yield curve on Treasuries. Interest on the 5 yr. is more than for the benchmark 10 year.
    There are several other inverted yield curves between short and long term rates.

    The Stock Market has gone negative under Biden i.e. lower than when he took office. The Dow was 30,930 when he took office. It closed Friday at 30,783. The NASDAQ was at 13,457 and closed at 11.142. Everyone's 401K's and Pension funds have taken big hits thanks to Bidenomics.

    Real wages have been going down for a year. According to the BLS, CNBC and the WSJ they are down 2.4 % from January ,2021 to January, 2022.

    Mortgage rates are UP. Housing starts are down in both March and April. According to CNBC existing home sales are down to their lowest level since the start of Covid. New home sales are down 4.7% in March .

    Some say a recession is coming. Others say it is already here.


    All together now : "Thanks Joe ! ".
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; Yesterday at 10:48 AM.
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    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    That contradicts your claim that President Biden is the one responsible for high oil prices, rather than oil executives.

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    No, you and Rick said increased US production of oil and deregulation leads to lower prices, and prices declined under Trump, thanks to fracking. Here is your quote:



    The facts prove you wrong. The avg. price of gasoline increased from $2.32 in Jan. 2017, when Trump took office, to $2.96 in May 2018. Increased US oil production did not lead to lower prices. You were wrong. Are you going to acknowledge that you were wrong, or are you going to deny this fact because it doesn't go along with your far-right narrative?



    Once again you're being dishonest. You post the lows, but leave out the highs, because showing how high the price of gas went under Trump doesn't go along with your far-right narrative.



    Yes, oil went below the break even point, which is why production declined in the US. As I've been saying, you don't have a basic understanding of how supply and demand works, nor how the oil market works.



    Arthur Laffer and Larry Kudlow are two I can name off the top of my head. Regardless, you seem completely unable to grasp the concept, that saying that someone agrees with you, does not prove anything, other than what that person's opinion is.



    I did. You're gaslighting again. Trump publicly asked Russia to hack Clinton's emails. Asking a foreign country for help in an election is against the law.



    From the start, Trump tried to remove sanctions against Russia.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-adm...231301145.html



    Now you're leaving out the Americans killed in Afghanistan during Trump's first three years in office. You're being dishonest again. I never said Biden projected strength in his Afghanistan withdrawal. I said that Putin did not base his decision to invade Ukraine, based on our withdrawal from Afghanistan. You're also greatly exaggerating how bad things went in our withdrawal from there. A lot more people were killed as a result of Trump's disastrous withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria, than Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan. Trump warned Erdogan not to attack the Kurds when US forces left, and Erdogan ignored Trump's warning. You're completely disconnected from reality when it comes to Trump and Biden. Trump was a joke to foreign leaders. Foreign leaders literally laughed at Trump. Your views of Trump and Biden are based on right-wing caricatures, not reality.
    I have posted the numbers from the DOE.
    Everyone can read them for themselves and form their own conclusions.

    Kudlow and Laffer are "crackpots" ? Based on what ? Because you disagree with them ? Put up or shut up.

    What Trump actually said is on tape. He told Russia to release her e-mails if they had them. They had already been hacked by Assange and Mossad. Considering how badly Hillary's ass just got nailed to the wall in the Sussman trial i.e. she approved going to the press and the FBI with phony info about a link between Trump and Alpha Bank I think you are complaining about the wrong person.

    You did not document anything. All you ever do is repeat a disproven allegation. Your link is by Michael Isikoff from JUNE, 2017 . Barely 4 months into Trump's term. A LOT happened in the 3 1/2 years after that as I documented . 40 rounds of sanctions does not jive with your "collusion" theory. Did you READ Isikoff's piece ? I know it's asking a lot but did you actually READ It ? It was clearly an effort by Trump to improve relations with Russia and make a "Grand Bargain". For good or ill that is Trump. He believes in making the "Big Deal" and was trying to do one with Putin. If you had bothered to read Isikoff's piece you would have seen that Trump did NOT offer Putin a "free lunch". Quite the contrary. On every point he expected a quid pro quo from Putin and when Russia was not willing to reciprocate Trump sanctioned them. It is called DIPLOMACY Eagle. When the "carrot" didn't work , Trump used the "stick". At least 40 times. Please READ your own links BEFORE you post them. Where in Isikoff's piece is there any evidence of collusion ? Of benefit to Russia and/or cost to the U.S. ? Just some expressed worries from Obama holdovers at the State Department that never amounted to anything. You do this all the time. You claim a link says one thing but on actual READING it says nothing of the sort. If I did it you would say I was being "dishonest".

    I was talking about U.S. combat deaths. After February , 2020 there were none until August, 2021 when we had Biden's fiasco. We all saw the news for ourselves. That is your idea of a well planned orderly pull out ? Are you serious ?
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; Yesterday at 09:52 AM.
    A
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    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    That contradicts your claim that President Biden is the one responsible for high oil prices, rather than oil executives.
    WHAT ? That was YOUR link. YOU posted it. NOT ME ! All I did was post the numbers for domestic oil production and gasoline prices. We can all see what happened to gas prices since Biden took office. We can all see that domestic oil production has not gone up despite higher prices. Now you want to give Biden a pass and blame oil executives. YOUR link quoted a survey of oil INVESTORS !

    Biden has tried blaming the oil industry. You are the only one buying it.
    A
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    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Oil investors like high oil prices. Who knew ?
    Did you read this part ? : " But the most salient reason - the one offered by 60% of respondents - was that investors don't want companies to produce a lot more oil , fearing that it will hasten the end of high oil prices ." OMG ! Those poor deluded people. Eagle, you have your work cut out for you. You need to educate these people that higher production will not affect prices because you , the All Wise , All Knowing Eagle say so lol.

    How can you blame Trump for increases in oil prices on his watch but give Biden a pass ? That is a classic double standard and intellectual dishonesty.

    We can all look at the U.S.E.I.A. charts from the DOE ourselves. We can see that under Trump oil production at the beginning of his term was 8.8 million BPD. It peaked at just under 13 million in November, 2019. It dropped in 2020 thanks to Covid to a low of 9.7 million BPD before rising to 11 million when he left office.

    In 2017 production started at the aforementioned 8.8 million. and hit a high for the year of 10 million in November.
    2018- It started at almost 10 million and went to a high of 11.9 million in December.
    2019- Started at 11.8 million and by November it hit almost 13 million.
    2020- Started at 12.8 and declined to a low of 9.7 million in July before going up again to 11 million by the end of the year.
    2021- Started at around 11 million and stayed there , more or less, throughout the year and into 2022.

    Likewise we can look at the gasoline price charts from the same source and see that when Obama started his first term
    in January , 2009 gasoline sold for a National average of $1.84 a gallon. It peaked at $3.95 a gallon in April 2012 but had dropped to $2.45 a gallon when he left office in January, 2017 . Trump took over and the price went up as high as $2.98 in May, 2018 but by the end of that year it dropped to $2.45. In 2019 it started at $2.33 , went up to $2.94 in May , 2019 and dropped to $2.64 by the end of that year. When Trump left office it was $2.42. It NEVER went over $3 a gallon under Trump. Under Biden it has not been below $3 since April, 2021.

    U.S. Oil production peaked at almost 13 million BPD in November ,2019 and the price of gasoline went DOWN from a Quarterly average of $2.59 a gallon for the 4th Quarter of 2019 to a low of $2.41 for the First Quarter of 2020. Production UP ; Prices DOWN ! READ the U.S.E.I.A. charts for yourself. BOTH charts. Oil production and gasoline prices. By January, 2020 prices had gone DOWN from a high of $2.94 in May, 2019 to $ 2.63 . It dropped further in February, 2020 to $2.53 and then down again to $2.32 in March,2020 when the Covid shutdowns started. There is a lag of 40 to 50 days from oil field to gas pump. Crude has to be transported to the refinery , refined and then transported to the wholesalers and then retail gas stations.

    As I posted, when Biden took office gas sold for a monthly national average of $2.42 a gallon. It has done nothing but go up, Up , UP !

    Higher energy prices combined with a loose Fed and excessive spending to take inflation from 1.4 % when Trump left to where it is now. But of course none of it is Biden's fault. Not even diesel prices which are well over $6 a gallon and even over $7 in many parts of the country. That directly affects anything shipped by truck or train with diesel locomotives.

    Oh btw, we again have an inverted yield curve on Treasuries. Interest on the 5 yr. is more than for the benchmark 10 year.
    There are several other inverted yield curves between short and long term rates.

    The Stock Market has gone negative under Biden i.e. lower than when he took office. The Dow was 30,930 when he took office. It closed Friday at 30,783. The NASDAQ was at 13,457 and closed at 11.142. Everyone's 401K's and Pension funds have taken big hits thanks to Bidenomics.

    Real wages have been going down for a year. According to the BLS, CNBC and the WSJ they are down 2.4 % from January ,2021 to January, 2022.

    Mortgage rates are UP. Housing starts are down in both March and April. According to CNBC existing home sales are down to their lowest level since the start of Covid. New home sales are down 4.7% in March .

    Some say a recession is coming. Others say it is already here.


    All together now : "Thanks Joe ! ".
    You don't seem to be able to understand simple concepts, such as wars and pandemics can have a major impact on the economy, regardless of who is President. Of course this doesn't even matter to you. You're only interested in bashing President Biden.

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    WHAT ? That was YOUR link. YOU posted it. NOT ME ! All I did was post the numbers for domestic oil production and gasoline prices. We can all see what happened to gas prices since Biden took office. We can all see that domestic oil production has not gone up despite higher prices. Now you want to give Biden a pass and blame oil executives. YOUR link quoted a survey of oil INVESTORS !

    Biden has tried blaming the oil industry. You are the only one buying it.
    No, I quoted a survey of oil EXECUTIVES. From the article:

    Executives at 141 oil companies surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in mid-March offered several reasons that they weren’t pumping more oil.

    Not a single executive said Biden's policies are the reason why they're not pumping more oil. Of course, for you blaming President Biden takes precedence over what the actual facts are.

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    I have posted the numbers from the DOE.
    Everyone can read them for themselves and form their own conclusions.

    Kudlow and Laffer are "crackpots" ? Based on what ? Because you disagree with them ? Put up or shut up.
    It would be a waste of time. You will never, ever accept a fact that contradicts your ideology.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    What Trump actually said is on tape. He told Russia to release her e-mails if they had them. They had already been hacked by Assange and Mossad. Considering how badly Hillary's ass just got nailed to the wall in the Sussman trial i.e. she approved going to the press and the FBI with phony info about a link between Trump and Alpha Bank I think you are complaining about the wrong person.
    You're making stuff up. Assange and Mossad had not hacked Clinton's emails. Even crazy right-wing conspiracy theorists aren't saying that. It's well established that Russia hacked Clinton's emails and provided them to Wikileaks to post on their site.

    Yes, what Trump said is on tape, as well as video. He asked Russia to "find" Clinton's emails.





    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    I was talking about U.S. combat deaths. After February , 2020 there were none until August, 2021 when we had Biden's fiasco. We all saw the news for ourselves. That is your idea of a well planned orderly pull out ? Are you serious ?
    Again, you're ignoring combat deaths before 2020.

    You're being dishonest again. I did not say the withdrawal was "a well planned orderly pull out." Please stop distorting what I say.

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