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Thread: Stagflation is here !

  1. #251
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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    428,000 jobs created in April. The economy is still going strong, even with gas at $4.50 a gallon.
    Noted.

    As I previously posted all is not doom and gloom. Yet.

    Sales, employment and corporate profits are all positives. For now.

    Now for the bad news : Inflation is still raging especially in energy , food, housing costs and rents. The PPI is way up which means the producer price increases will take months to work their way through the economy. New jobs ARE up but, But , BUT we are still below the Pre-Covid level of employment. The labor participation rate is still down. Plus unemployment is a lagging indicator. As the economy slows into negative growth as it APPEARS to be doing now, lay offs are usually the last shoe to drop. We will see.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 05-10-2022 at 07:24 AM.
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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    The market is actually happy today because the inflation reading came in at only 8.3%, a slight reduction from the last reading of 8.5%. SMH.

    How screwed up are things when the market is actually happy with an outcome like this? It's still horribly high and could potentially get worse, though even if it stayed flat or came down a bit more it would still be horribly corrosive. But the market understands that this Fed is looking for any excuse to waffle on inflation-fighting measures and this this might just be the fig leaf that it needs.

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Hopefully this means that the Fed's interest rate increases have at least slowed down the rate of inflation. But, the administration is mulling over a student loan forgiveness plan that will put even more money into the economy that the Fed will have to raise interest rates to counteract the inflationary pressure. And don't forget, state and local governments are sitting on hoards of cash that they too are planning to spend, in many cases before election day. Lots of inflationary pressure to come.

    Z

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  7. #254
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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    The market is actually happy today because the inflation reading came in at only 8.3%, a slight reduction from the last reading of 8.5%. SMH.

    How screwed up are things when the market is actually happy with an outcome like this? It's still horribly high and could potentially get worse, though even if it stayed flat or came down a bit more it would still be horribly corrosive. But the market understands that this Fed is looking for any excuse to waffle on inflation-fighting measures and this this might just be the fig leaf that it needs.
    Even this latest news is Fool's Gold for three reasons : 1. Core inflation still went up ; 2. Food , energy and housing costs are all still going up at over 10% and 3. The PPI increases are just starting to work their way through the economic chain. We will see more not less inflation in the months ahead.

    So called economic experts predicted inflation of 8.1 % so 8.3 exceeded their prediction.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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  9. #255
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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by Zofia View Post
    Hopefully this means that the Fed's interest rate increases have at least slowed down the rate of inflation. But, the administration is mulling over a student loan forgiveness plan that will put even more money into the economy that the Fed will have to raise interest rates to counteract the inflationary pressure. And don't forget, state and local governments are sitting on hoards of cash that they too are planning to spend, in many cases before election day. Lots of inflationary pressure to come.

    Z
    Btw that Student Loan Forgiveness Plan is an outrage. Biden's proposal would force the working class to subsidize those making up to $125,000 ( roughly 2.5 the median salary for the U.S. ). It is a proposed subsidy for those on track to earn the most money over their lifetimes.

    What Biden and the supporters of this and similar proposals ignore is that Government loan programs helped fuel the student loan problem in the first place. College tuition vastly outpaced inflation over the last two decades. Universities raised tuition because they knew that student loan programs would let universities keep pace. By continuing the disconnect between the loans and the cost of tuition or the usefulness of degrees in Art History or Gender Studies , the federal government let universities recklessly shell out more student loans with minimal prospects for repayment.

    A 2017 study by the Federal Reserve Bank of N.Y. showed $1 of government student loan expansion correlated to 60 cents of tuition increase. Even worse, employers report that most college graduates are not prepared for the workforce. There is no demand for a lot of degrees that many students pursue like "Feminist Theory" or " Philosophy of Dance". I did NOT make those up.

    According to Preston Cooper at The Foundation For Research On Equal Opportunity the earning potential or Return on Investment ( ROI ) of many of the 60,000 post secondary degrees and certifications he looked at is NEGATIVE. Meaning the degree does not justify the cost of college and risk of dropping out. It used to be that people WORKED their way to a college degree and/or saved up to pay the tuition. Thus preventing a "moral hazard". Loan forgiveness removes the risk of making poor decisions about where to go to school ; what to major in and even whether to go to college at all. Ditto for post-graduate degrees. A LOT of student debt is accumulated to pay for Masters degrees and even PhD's.

    Biden wants the top 40% of households to continue to rack up 60% of outstanding student debt according to the Brookings Institute. Loan forgiveness will NOT make the loans disappear. The cost of the loans will be socialized so that the 87% of people who did not get a student loan will pay the freight for the 13% who did. 65% of Americans do not go to college. 25% of all loans and 50% of all student debt is for graduate school. Why should factory workers , mechanics , cooks and dogwalkers have to pay for all those Art History and Gender Studies grads ? Now I know that some say that the whole country benefits by having a college educated cadre. Do we ? Really ? Aren't the prime beneficiaries the grads themselves ? Aren't their earnings going to be much, much greater than those who didn't go to college ? 5 of the most influential and important Americans of the last 50 years dropped out of college. Guess who ? Answer below. One third of the world's billionaires did not graduate from college. However 88% of American Millionaires did graduate with at least 4 year degree.

    Record Covid related spending already poured fuel on existing inflationary fires. Forgiving student loans will just add more. And those least able to will be asked to bear most of the costs.




    Answer : Michael Dell ; Steve Jobs; Bill Gates; Larry Ellison and Ted Turner.

    If you want you can throw in Russell Simmons, Anna Wintour, Rachael Ray, David Geffen, Ellen DeGeneres and of course the MOST important and influential of them all , not to mention one of the wealthiest - KIM KARDASHIAN !!!! .
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 05-11-2022 at 11:49 AM.
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    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    You people don't seem to understand that when supply goes down without a corresponding decline in demand, prices go up. That's what we're seeing now. Russia is the world's largest exporter of oil, as well as a major exporter of grain and fertilizer. Ukraine is also a major exporter of grain. The war has greatly reduced the supply of all of these. That's why prices are up. Inflation is at 7.5% in the EU. Are the Fed's policies and the stimulus spending causing inflation in Europe too?

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    You people don't seem to understand that when supply goes down without a corresponding decline in demand, prices go up. That's what we're seeing now. Russia is the world's largest exporter of oil, as well as a major exporter of grain and fertilizer. Ukraine is also a major exporter of grain. The war has greatly reduced the supply of all of these. That's why prices are up. Inflation is at 7.5% in the EU. Are the Fed's policies and the stimulus spending causing inflation in Europe too?
    What about all the inflation that we had BEFORE Putin even started massing troops on the border with Ukraine ?

    Core inflation does NOT include food and energy and it is UP well over 6 %.

    The fact that thanks to Biden's policies we cannot fill in the gap and make up for lost imports from Russia in oil and gas does account for some of the inflationary impact in Europe. Releasing oil from the SPR has had ZERO effect on prices even though it was a minor increase in supply. It's just window dressing. And before you start recycling your usual talking points about the oil biz in general and leases in particular, let me remind you that leases without drilling PERMITS are useless. Please check the overall U.S. rig count and how many drilling PERMITS have been approved by Biden's toadies. Both numbers are way down since Biden took office.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 05-11-2022 at 12:56 PM.
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    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    When the price of oil/gasoline goes up, it pushes up the price of everything that is transported. There are other shortages in the economy besides oil and food. There's been a shortage of microchips that's been going on since the pandemic, which has increased prices of everything that uses microchips. It's also caused a major decline in automobile production, which is why car prices have increased so much. I was talking to a salesman at a Hyundai dealer. He said Hyundai had shut down production lines because they can't get chips for their cars.

    We had inflation BEFORE the war in Ukraine due to the supply issues that resulted from the pandemic. Supply is still being affected by the shutdowns going on in China. Inflation has increased since the war began, due to the issues I mentioned in my previous post.

    I don't think you understand how the oil market works. Oil prices are based on worldwide oil supply and demand, not domestic supply and demand. We don't have anywhere near enough capacity to make up for the reduced supply from Russia, as well as Saudi Arabia's decrease in production.

    Oil production is up to 11.8 million barrels a day and analysts expect it to increase by more than 1 million bpd by the end of the year.

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    I don't think you understand how the oil market works. Oil prices are based on worldwide oil supply and demand, not domestic supply and demand. We don't have anywhere near enough capacity to make up for the reduced supply from Russia, as well as Saudi Arabia's decrease in production.
    Normally everyone has a right to an opinion, whether it's well supported or not. But if you're going to accuse some else of not understanding something, you've got a higher bar to clear and should definitely do your homework before you do so.

    The U.S. is the single largest producer of oil in the world. More than Russia and more than Saudi Arabia. This doesn't often capture headlines because much of it is consumed domestically, so we don't export as much as those countries, but it is nonetheless baked into world oil prices because the more we produce, the less we import and the more we export.

    So: United - States - oil - production - levels - directly - impact - global - oil - prices. I don't have a bouncing ball effect, but since you chose to ignore this comment in multiple threads before this and instead keep making the same inaccurate circular argument over and over, I thought that this time I could make the words stand out more clearly.

    Oil prices were going up long before the war in Ukraine and we've talked about why ad nauseum. The U.S. has vast untapped fossil fuel resources, but this Administration is determined to hamstring the domestic oil industry, in the name of clean energy, instead of letting it respond to increasing worldwide demand.

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    What Rick said. It is common sense. The more we produce domestically the less we import. The less we import the less price pressure on oil. Plus with the exception of Alaskan oil , U.S. oil is cheaper to move around than imported. And it is easier and cheaper to refine than most imports except for Sweet, Light , Saudi crude which can actually be used as fuel without any refining. Same for what is left of Light, Sweet Indonesian. The Japanese ran their navy on it during W.W. II without refining.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    More good news : The PPI went up again. Almost 11% compared to April, 2021. We will be seeing and feeling the effects of that for months.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    What Rick said. It is common sense. The more we produce domestically the less we import. The less we import the less price pressure on oil. Plus with the exception of Alaskan oil , U.S. oil is cheaper to move around than imported. And it is easier and cheaper to refine than most imports except for Sweet, Light , Saudi crude which can actually be used as fuel without any refining. Same for what is left of Light, Sweet Indonesian. The Japanese ran their navy on it during W.W. II without refining.
    To be fair Eric, running oil fired boilers is very different than running diesel trucks or gasoline cars and trucks. Light sweet crude isn't gong to run an Impala. Un-refined crude can be used in slow turning, long running diesels such as marine engines. But, it still requires a lot of filtering before use.

    HTH
    Z

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    What Rick said. It is common sense. The more we produce domestically the less we import. The less we import the less price pressure on oil. Plus with the exception of Alaskan oil , U.S. oil is cheaper to move around than imported. And it is easier and cheaper to refine than most imports except for Sweet, Light , Saudi crude which can actually be used as fuel without any refining. Same for what is left of Light, Sweet Indonesian. The Japanese ran their navy on it during W.W. II without refining.
    You and Rick don't even have the most basic understanding of how the oil market works. It does not matter how much oil the US produces or how much the US imports or exports, in terms of the price of oil. The only thing that matters is worldwide supply and demand. American oil producers are going to sell oil at the market price. They are in business to make money, not to provide Americans with cheap oil. Oil is going to cost the same whether it comes from Texas or Saudi Arabia. If American oil production increases, but the worldwide supply decreases and demand remains the same, the price of oil will increase. You and Rick don't seem to have a basic understanding of how supply and demand works.

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by Zofia View Post
    To be fair Eric, running oil fired boilers is very different than running diesel trucks or gasoline cars and trucks. Light sweet crude isn't gong to run an Impala. Un-refined crude can be used in slow turning, long running diesels such as marine engines. But, it still requires a lot of filtering before use.

    HTH
    Z
    Absolutely correct. It is still cheaper and easier to refine than other crudes with higher sulphur and /or wax content.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    You and Rick don't even have the most basic understanding of how the oil market works. It does not matter how much oil the US produces or how much the US imports or exports, in terms of the price of oil. The only thing that matters is worldwide supply and demand. American oil producers are going to sell oil at the market price. They are in business to make money, not to provide Americans with cheap oil. Oil is going to cost the same whether it comes from Texas or Saudi Arabia. If American oil production increases, but the worldwide supply decreases and demand remains the same, the price of oil will increase. You and Rick don't seem to have a basic understanding of how supply and demand works.
    ENOUGH ! Afaic you are a self appointed expert. Well I am sorry but I take the time and bother to read and listen to people who are IN the oil business; or who have decades of experience analyzing and /or reporting on the oil biz; or governing states with high oil production and they ALL agree with Rick, Zofia and me and disagree with you. They ALL say that increasing domestic U.S. production will put downward pressure on prices. I know you do not like or agree with some of these people but that is what they are saying and they have HISTORY on their side. When we have increased U.S. production we have seen prices decline. It happened under Reagan ; under Clinton to a lesser extent ( it was mostly OPEC flooding the market and a very strong dollar ) and under Trump thanks mostly to fracking. We are all aware what gas was selling for when Trump left office ; a year after Biden took office and what it is selling for now.

    According to you we are all getting bamboozled and should not believe what we see at the gas pump and in our heating bills. And whatever we do we should not blame Biden and his policies.
    A
    The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither.
    Teddy Roosevelt

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    ENOUGH ! Afaic you are a self appointed expert. Well I am sorry but I take the time and bother to read and listen to people who are IN the oil business; or who have decades of experience analyzing and /or reporting on the oil biz; or governing states with high oil production and they ALL agree with Rick, Zofia and me and disagree with you. They ALL say that increasing domestic U.S. production will put downward pressure on prices. I know you do not like or agree with some of these people but that is what they are saying and they have HISTORY on their side. When we have increased U.S. production we have seen prices decline. It happened under Reagan ; under Clinton to a lesser extent ( it was mostly OPEC flooding the market and a very strong dollar ) and under Trump thanks mostly to fracking. We are all aware what gas was selling for when Trump left office ; a year after Biden took office and what it is selling for now.

    According to you we are all getting bamboozled and should not believe what we see at the gas pump and in our heating bills. And whatever we do we should not blame Biden and his policies.
    He keeps claiming that we don't understand that the oil marketplace is global. We keep responding that we certainly do understand that, but that the U.S. is a large enough producer to impact global market prices. Then, 4 posts later, he claims that we don't understand that the oil marketplace is global...

    I'm not sure how many times we have to repeat the same response before he breaks out of the repetitive cycle and moves the conversation forward. He's free of course to agree or disagree with the response, but to just keep parroting the same comment over and over is not productive.

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    ENOUGH ! Afaic you are a self appointed expert. Well I am sorry but I take the time and bother to read and listen to people who are IN the oil business; or who have decades of experience analyzing and /or reporting on the oil biz; or governing states with high oil production and they ALL agree with Rick, Zofia and me and disagree with you. They ALL say that increasing domestic U.S. production will put downward pressure on prices. I know you do not like or agree with some of these people but that is what they are saying and they have HISTORY on their side. When we have increased U.S. production we have seen prices decline. It happened under Reagan ; under Clinton to a lesser extent ( it was mostly OPEC flooding the market and a very strong dollar ) and under Trump thanks mostly to fracking. We are all aware what gas was selling for when Trump left office ; a year after Biden took office and what it is selling for now.
    I'm not an expert, but I have a basic understanding of economics and logic. You don't. You don't understand that saying, "experts agree with me," does not prove anything. You oversimplify everything to the point of absurdity, you look at everything with an extreme bias, and you don't even bother looking at any facts or figures. You seem to have this idea that all the President needs to do is sign a few pieces of paper or make a few statements, and oil output will surge, and gas prices will plummet. The real world doesn't work this way. You and your so-called experts have already been proven wrong. US has increased domestic production and oil prices have still gone up. If you combine the increase in production with the million bpd that Biden has released from our stockpile, oil production now is about the same as its highest level during the Trump Administration, yet prices have still gone way up. That is because decreases in output in Saudi Arabia and Russia, more than offset the increases in US production. Because you don't understand that there is one world market for oil, you don't understand that this is why prices are up. I think that the only thing you understand is that you hate Biden and are intent in finding fault with everything he says and does. The price of gasoline started going up 6 or 7 months before Biden became President. The price of gas was increasing every month during Trump's last 6 or 7 months in office, and this trend continued after Biden took office. The obvious reason is because demand was increasing faster than supply. You either don't understand how supply and demand works or you don't bother to look at the figures, so you don't know this. In addition, Saudi Arabia cut their oil supply, due to pressure from Trump, which also caused prices to go up. Then Russia invaded Ukraine, and sanctions on Russia has greatly decreased their supply, which caused even more upward pressure on the price of gas. Here is a 5 year chart showing world oil output through Dec. 2021:



    From May 2020 to June 2020, world oil output decreased by 12 million barrels per day. The United States doesn't have anywhere near the capacity to make up for that. As of Dec. 2021, we were still not near pre-pandemic levels. I wasn't able to find 2022 figures, but world oil production probably declined again in the months following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, due to sanctions. Instead of actually taking the time to look at the figures, you take this simplistic look, that domestic oil production increased under Reagan and Trump, and that's why gas was cheaper. You never even bothered to look at any of the figures. You have no idea of what demand for oil was when Reagan took office, what world oil output was, how much world oil output increased and how much demand increased or decreased. If you actually took the time to look at this, you would see that it's not as simple as you make it out to be. Demand for oil/gasoline dropped dramatically when prices skyrocketed after the Iranian Revolution. The high price of oil also led to increased production by non-OPEC countries like Britain and Norway. There was also more oil coming from Alaska, thanks to the new pipeline, which took approximately 8 years to plan and build. Reagan was just lucky to have taken office not long after it was completed. 16 months into Trump's presidency, the price of gas at the pump was way higher than it was when Obama left office.

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Le...TE_NUS_DPG&f=W

    avg. price of gas, week of 1/23/2017: $2.326
    avg. price of gas, week of 5/28/2018: $2.962

    How do you explain this? Why is it that when the US increased production, gas prices rose?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    According to you we are all getting bamboozled and should not believe what we see at the gas pump and in our heating bills. And whatever we do we should not blame Biden and his policies.
    You don't understand that there are limitations as to how much a president can do to bring down the price of gasoline, short term, or that decisions made by oil companies' executives and foreign leaders have a much bigger impact on the price of gas than anything the President does. If Trump was in office, the price of gas would be about the same as it is now, assuming Trump went along with the sanctions against Russia. Knowing Trump, he would have opposed them, but Congress would probably have enough votes to override any vetoes. I'd rather pay more for gas and help Ukraine.
    Last edited by eagle2; 05-15-2022 at 02:46 PM.

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    He keeps claiming that we don't understand that the oil marketplace is global. We keep responding that we certainly do understand that, but that the U.S. is a large enough producer to impact global market prices. Then, 4 posts later, he claims that we don't understand that the oil marketplace is global...

    I'm not sure how many times we have to repeat the same response before he breaks out of the repetitive cycle and moves the conversation forward. He's free of course to agree or disagree with the response, but to just keep parroting the same comment over and over is not productive.
    Do you understand that even if the US increases oil production, as we have over the past two years, that if Saudi Arabia and Russia cut production more than the US increases production, the result will be an increase in the cost of oil and gasoline? Between the increase in US production, and the million bpd being released from reserves, US oil output is about the same as what it was at its peak, during Trump's presidency.
    Last edited by eagle2; 05-13-2022 at 08:41 PM.

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    Do you understand that even if the US increases oil production, as we has over the past two years, that if Saudi Arabia and Russia cut production more than the US increases production, the result will be an increase in the cost of oil and gasoline? Between the increase in US production, and the million bpd being released from reserves, US oil output is about the same as what it was at its peak, during Trump's presidency.
    U.S. oil production is below its peak under Trump. Further, there is every reason to believe that, unconstrained, the U.S. would now be producing even more than it did under Trump given where prices currently sit and the vast untapped fossil fuel reserves still available here. Unless of course you believe that oil companies don't like making money.

    We had 4 years of free flowing oil and the result was drastically lower fuel prices, even in the face of games played by OPEC and Russia. When a market is allowed to operate free of government interference, a natural price equilibrium sets in. Yet today, with oil north of $100 per barrel, we are pumping less than when it was under $60. Why would that be? Do you actually believe that oil companies hate profits?

    For every action, there is a reaction. When you artificially restrict supply to accommodate social policy desires, prices rise. It happened during the Obama years and now again in the Biden regime. When the market was allowed to behave more naturally during the Trump years, gas prices fell.

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    If Trump's policies were so great and Obama's were so bad, why was the avg. price of gas lower when Obama left office, than when Trump left office? Why was there a dramatic drop in the price of gas during Obama's last four years in office, but no drop in the price of gas during Trump's four years in office?

    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Le...TE_NUS_DPG&f=W

    avg. price of gas, week of 1/21/2013: $3.315
    avg. price of gas, week of 1/23/2017: $2.326
    avg. price of gas, week of 1/25/2021: $2.392

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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by rickdugan View Post
    For every action, there is a reaction. When you artificially restrict supply to accommodate social policy desires, prices rise. It happened during the Obama years and now again in the Biden regime. When the market was allowed to behave more naturally during the Trump years, gas prices fell.
    Rick,

    When Trump took office, the avg. price of gas was at $2.326. 16 months into Trump's presidency, the week of May 28, 2018, the avg. price of gas was at $2.962. Where was the drop in the price of gas, that was supposed to come from allowing the market to behave more naturally? Why is it, that gasoline was so much cheaper when Obama "artificially restricted supply to accommodate social policy desires," than it was after Trump allowed the market "to behave more naturally?"

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    [ Quote]You don't understand that there are limitations as to how much a president can do to bring down the price of gasoline, short term, or that decisions made by oil companies' executives and foreign leaders have a much bigger impact on the price of gas than anything the President does. If Trump was in office, the price of gas would be about the same as it is now, assuming Trump went along with the sanctions against Russia. Knowing Trump, he would have opposed them, but Congress would probably have enough votes to override any vetoes. I'd rather pay more for gas and help Ukraine.[/QUOTE]



    We are arguing in circles again making the same points over and over again. We have passed "Boring " and are now in "Painfully Boring". I know , I know it is all my fault because of my "demented boomerism" and /or because I look at the same facts and figures available to you and come to different conclusions. But here goes :

    1. Please look at the CALENDAR. It is May 2022. Obama has not been POTUS since January ,2017 and Trump has been out of power for a year and a half. Although some think Obama is the real power behind the throne and has been calling the shots for Biden through his recycled appointees. Possible but I have my doubts that Obama is that inept.

    2. Biden just cancelled a bunch of leases in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. The break even price on Gulf oil is less than $30 a barrel. Despite there being unused leases (for a variety of reasons ) the fact is that the Biden Bunch refuses to issue PERMITS. That is like selling lots but then refusing to issue building permits.

    3. U.S. oil production dropped 8% from 2019 to 2020 and another 1.1 % in 2021. We are not remotely close to what peak production had been under Trump when it was almost 13 million barrels per day. Which it was back in March 2020. Experts in the oil biz ( those dependent on it for their daily bread ) experienced analysts and investors and governors of major oil producing states ALL say that if Biden reversed course and stopped trying to stifle domestic production ( including DEVELOPMENT , REFINING and TRANSPORT ) we could easily set new records for domestic production i.e. produce more oil than under Trump. Most say around 14 million barrels per day. Alaska alone is currently producing and shipping 400,000 barrels per day through the Alaska Pipeline. Oil analysts agree with Alaska's Governor that it could be 2 million barrels per day. Today, right now , there are 33% fewer leases in effect than in 2009 under Obama. There is a 45% drop in the acreage under lease . Less than 1.9% of Federal land is leased

    4. I have explained how the futures markets work. The operative word is FUTURES. Either you reject it out of hand or just don't want to accept it or someway, somehow you think the workings of those markets are not Biden's fault. Investors place bets that the price for a specific commodity will go up or down in the FUTURE. Or that the Futures Market as a whole will go up or down. The oil being sold for $110 a barrel today, May 16, is for delivery in June and even July . Those markets react to various local and worldwide conditions like war, tensions in a particular part of the world, drought , floods etc. etc. They also react to signals from governments. There has not been a single positive signal from Biden to an industry he himself has called "yesterday's industry ". His Administration is full of people like Granholm , Buttigieg , Gina McCarthy and Kerry who think higher oil and gas prices are great to help push everyone into electric cars , mass transit and pedicabs. Plus we have Federal Reserve policies pressuring banks and other lenders not to extend credit to drillers and frackers. Where these commodities including oil are concerned it is future conditions that really count.

    5. The only economic forces you acknowledge are supply and demand. True but incomplete where oil and gas are concerned. The U.S is the world's largest producer of oil and gas and its largest consumer. The less we produce ourselves the more we must import to keep the lights on , heat running , cook our meals and get to work. The price of oil is partially dependent on the anticipated FUTURE supply and demand. So far, the only people who have benefitted from Biden's policies are Iran , Russia and Venezuela. When the UAE and Iraq announced back in March that they would increase production by 800,000 barrels per day the price of oil went DOWN by $22 a barrel within minutes. Back in 2008-9 demand started declining because of the Financial Crisis. Yet oil remained high thanks to huge bets placed by Goldman Sucks and a few other investment banks and hedge funds. Oil went up to about $140 a barrel in June ,2008 before falling below $40 a barrel in February , 2009. It had been at around $50 a barrel in early 2007. Surging demand and stagnant supply were major factors. No doubt. So was speculation fueled by a Goldman Sucks prediction of $200 a barrel . After juicing up the price of oil and other commodities Goldman Sucks did a 180 and sold off , sold short and predicted collapsing prices. They made billions in one of the biggest LEGAL swindles ever pulled off. Matt Taibi has done some fantastic reporting and writing describing what Goldman did and how they did it. He does not call them the "Vampire Squid " for nothing. The point is that the price fluctuations ( some might say manipulations ) had little to do with actual supply and demand then and there existing at the time. I have repeatedly asked you to name one thing Biden has done to boost domestic production and all you can say in response is that I don't understand the global market over which Biden has no control. Reagan and Trump issued policies that boosted domestic production and prices went down. Late in his term Trump did persuade ( some say he threatened) the Saudis to cut production to try and keep U.S. frackers from going bust. Rick and I have both reminded you what the glut was like. We literally ran out of places to store the surplus of crude and could not refine all of it due to limited capacity. Clinton had a very strong dollar and was fairly benign towards gas and oil. Imports were cheap and OPEC tried to make up in volume what they were losing to the dirt cheap price of oil. $14 a barrel at its low if memory serves. Gas was selling BELOW $1 a gallon in 1998.

    6. While he was no friend of free market capitalism in general or oil and gas in particular , Obama was never as hostile to the fossil fuel industry as Biden has been. You are cherry picking gas prices under Obama and Trump. I'll still sign up for $2.93 a gallon. Trump's policies took a while to take effect. That is how things work in the real world as opposed to a College Economics lecture hall. We had rising demand thanks to an economy that was starting to take off in 2019 into early 2020 before the Covid shutdowns. I have posted the numbers for growth and unemployment plus oil production several times and don't want to go from "painfully boring " to "coma inducing " lol .

    7. There is more at work than Biden just clamping down on drilling permits. Thanks PARTLY to Biden it is cheaper for Gulf refiners to ship gasoline to Mexico than to the rest of the U.S. Aside from cancelling Keystone ( which had both practical and symbolic effects ) there are plenty of other pipeline permits not granted or stuck waiting for approval.

    8. Not even Jimmy Carter has gotten so much so wrong all at once as Biden. I have to go back to Herbert Hoover for a POTUS who got so much so wrong all at the same time. In Hoover's case it was cutting spending , raising taxes and signing Smoot Hawley while not pressuring the Fed not to raise interest rates and not to increase reserve requirements . Biden and his policies have literally created the Perfect Storm of bad choices all at once giving us our current mess.

    A - The first response of Biden et.al. was to try and pretend that a problem did not exist. That is how inflation went from a minor to a major problem. Rather than push the Fed to raise rates and sell off its mortgage backed securities Biden kept quiet. Then he and the Congress doubled down and did nothing to slow down Federal spending. They tried to tell us that inflation was "transitory". If Yellen didn't know better she is either as senile as Joe or grossly incompetent.

    B. When inflation proved that it was not transitory Biden tried to blame price gougers and greedy oil companies. When that didn't work we had Jen Psaki call it the "Putin Price Hike". She and Biden obviously assumed that Americans were too stupid to know and remember that inflation started long before Putin invaded Ukraine.

    C. Lacking any principles Biden's solution was to try and throw money at the problem. That is exactly how he made existing inflation worse. By the time Biden was elected we had already spent $ 2.6 trillion on Covid relief. Plus there was another $4 trillion in subsidized Federal lending. There was already new money amounting to about a third of GDP BEFORE Biden poured in another $ 1 trillion in so called "infrastructure" spending. ( Btw, a lot of that REAL infrastructure has been held up by new Federal environmental impact rules and regs.) AND another $1.9 trillion stimulus bill even though the CPI was already rising. Stimulating an already overheated economy is a great way to make inflation worse.

    D. Aside from a loose Fed and reckless spending we also had "supply chain" issues. Biden has made them worse by keeping the worst of 'Trump's anti-trade policies in place. Biden's "Made In the USA " policies being a great example. Much of the steel and other inputs we need for our domestic manufacturing is IMPORTED. Biden kept the punitive tariffs on Ukrainian steel while seeking financial aid for them ???? It took the Chamber of Commerce and a host of critics to get Biden to change his position. Biden has rejected obvious reforms like waiving the Jones Act. At least temporarily as we have done during previous "emergencies". Worse yet, he has supported the Longshoremen and other maritime unions to prevent shippers from automating our ports . Almost none of the "infrastructure" money has made it to a single project that would ease the supply chain issues. Biden's interference with trade has made a bad inflation situation worse.

    E. As I have highlighted Biden has gone beyond cancelling Keystone by having his EPA prevent the development of new energy infrastructure. The huge oil and gas reserves of the U.S., Canada and Mexico are useless if they can't be shipped to refiners and then have the products like gasoline shipped to consumers. As I mentioned, supra, it is currently cheaper for refiners in the Gulf to ship gasoline to Mexico than to the Northeast or West Coast. Now Biden is supposedly going to Saudi Arabia to beg in person for them to increase production. They already refused to take his call a few months ago and it is likely they will politely tell him to go copulate with himself. Perhaps someone could tell him that Texas , North Dakota and Louisiana are a LOT closer. Driving up energy prices for no good reason is another great way to make inflation worse.

    So there we have it. Bad monetary policy combined with bad fiscal policy plus bad trade policy added to bad energy and regulatory policy seasoned with denial and attempts at blame shifting to create our current mess.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 05-16-2022 at 01:09 PM.
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    Default Re: Stagflation is here !

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    We are arguing in circles again making the same points over and over again. We have passed "Boring " and are now in "Painfully Boring". I know , I know it is all my fault because of my "demented boomerism" and /or because I look at the same facts and figures available to you and come to different conclusions. But here goes :
    The problem is, you don't look at the facts and figures. Everything you post is 100% based on your far-right philosophy, and 0% based on facts and figures.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    1. Please look at the CALENDAR. It is May 2022. Obama has not been POTUS since January ,2017 and Trump has been out of power for a year and a half. Although some think Obama is the real power behind the throne and has been calling the shots for Biden through his recycled appointees. Possible but I have my doubts that Obama is that inept.
    I was replying to your post. You said:

    "When we have increased U.S. production we have seen prices decline. It happened under Reagan ; under Clinton to a lesser extent ( it was mostly OPEC flooding the market and a very strong dollar ) and under Trump thanks mostly to fracking."

    We did not see prices decline as a result of increased production under Trump. The price of gasoline increased by 25% during Trump's first 16 months. The facts contradict your statement.


    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    3. U.S. oil production dropped 8% from 2019 to 2020 and another 1.1 % in 2021.
    No, oil production increased during 2021. Again, you're ignoring the facts. Oil production went from 11 million bpd in January, to 11.6 million bpd in December.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    5. The only economic forces you acknowledge are supply and demand. True but incomplete where oil and gas are concerned. The U.S is the world's largest producer of oil and gas and its largest consumer. The less we produce ourselves the more we must import to keep the lights on , heat running , cook our meals and get to work.
    You still fail to understand that there is one worldwide market for oil. Please read this carefully, since I've stated this before: Oil costs the same whether it comes from Saudi Arabia or Texas. American oil producers are not going to sell oil for less than what Saudi Arabia is selling it for. Again, they're in business to make money, not to provide cheap oil for Americans.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    6. While he was no friend of free market capitalism in general or oil and gas in particular , Obama was never as hostile to the fossil fuel industry as Biden has been. You are cherry picking gas prices under Obama and Trump. I'll still sign up for $2.93 a gallon. Trump's policies took a while to take effect. That is how things work in the real world as opposed to a College Economics lecture hall. We had rising demand thanks to an economy that was starting to take off in 2019 into early 2020 before the Covid shutdowns. I have posted the numbers for growth and unemployment plus oil production several times and don't want to go from "painfully boring " to "coma inducing " lol .
    I'm not cherry-picking prices. You're just saying that because you don't like the facts. You don't want to acknowledge that the price of gas increased under Trump. You're also showing your hypocrisy again. When the price of gasoline increases by 25% during Trump's first 16 months in office, it's because his "policies took a while to take effect." When the price of gasoline increases during Biden's first 16 months, it Biden's fault, and his policies were the cause. With Trump, oil increased because of "rising demand thanks to an economy that was starting to take off in 2019 into early 2020." With Biden, it's because of his policies, even though the economic growth during Biden's first year was more than double what it was during Trump's first year. You also ignore the fact that the world's largest oil exporter is at war and is under sanctions. Facts and figures are meaningless to you. All you care about is if the policies go along with your far-right philosophy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    8. Not even Jimmy Carter has gotten so much so wrong all at once as Biden. I have to go back to Herbert Hoover for a POTUS who got so much so wrong all at the same time. In Hoover's case it was cutting spending , raising taxes and signing Smoot Hawley while not pressuring the Fed not to raise interest rates and not to increase reserve requirements . Biden and his policies have literally created the Perfect Storm of bad choices all at once giving us our current mess.
    Are you kidding?! We've had the strongest economic growth and job growth in decades under Biden. Aside from inflation, the economy is doing great. The only area where I fault Biden, is he hasn't done more to deal with the supply issues our economy is facing. Some of it, he has no control over. Semiconductor factories can take years to build. There is no quick fix for the semiconductor shortage we're facing. There's also a war going on that is greatly affecting oil supply, grain supply, and fertilizer supply. It's not just the US seeing inflation. Inflation is over 7% in the EU. Is Biden responsible for that too?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    So there we have it. Bad monetary policy combined with bad fiscal policy plus bad trade policy added to bad energy and regulatory policy seasoned with denial and attempts at blame shifting to create our current mess.
    Because you disagree with policies, doesn't mean they're bad. For the 8 million people who were unemployed when Biden took office, but are working now. the policies were good. For the poorest working Americans who saw the biggest income increases, the policies have been good. Jobs that were paying minimum wage before the pandemic, are now paying $14 - $15 an hour. You want to ignore everything going on in the world, and blame everything on President Biden and the Fed. You want to ignore the war going on in Ukraine. You want to ignore entire cities being locked down in China. You want to ignore the pandemic, that has had such a major impact on our economy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by eagle2 View Post
    The problem is, you don't look at the facts and figures. Everything you post is 100% based on your far-right philosophy, and 0% based on facts and figures.



    I was replying to your post. You said:

    "When we have increased U.S. production we have seen prices decline. It happened under Reagan ; under Clinton to a lesser extent ( it was mostly OPEC flooding the market and a very strong dollar ) and under Trump thanks mostly to fracking."

    We did not see prices decline as a result of increased production under Trump. The price of gasoline increased by 25% during Trump's first 16 months. The facts contradict your statement.




    No, oil production increased during 2021. Again, you're ignoring the facts. Oil production went from 11 million bpd in January, to 11.6 million bpd in December.



    You still fail to understand that there is one worldwide market for oil. Please read this carefully, since I've stated this before: Oil costs the same whether it comes from Saudi Arabia or Texas. American oil producers are not going to sell oil for less than what Saudi Arabia is selling it for. Again, they're in business to make money, not to provide cheap oil for Americans.



    I'm not cherry-picking prices. You're just saying that because you don't like the facts. You don't want to acknowledge that the price of gas increased under Trump. You're also showing your hypocrisy again. When the price of gasoline increases by 25% during Trump's first 16 months in office, it's because his "policies took a while to take effect." When the price of gasoline increases during Biden's first 16 months, it Biden's fault, and his policies were the cause. With Trump, oil increased because of "rising demand thanks to an economy that was starting to take off in 2019 into early 2020." With Biden, it's because of his policies, even though the economic growth during Biden's first year was more than double what it was during Trump's first year. You also ignore the fact that the world's largest oil exporter is at war and is under sanctions. Facts and figures are meaningless to you. All you care about is if the policies go along with your far-right philosophy.



    Are you kidding?! We've had the strongest economic growth and job growth in decades under Biden. Aside from inflation, the economy is doing great. The only area where I fault Biden, is he hasn't done more to deal with the supply issues our economy is facing. Some of it, he has no control over. Semiconductor factories can take years to build. There is no quick fix for the semiconductor shortage we're facing. There's also a war going on that is greatly affecting oil supply, grain supply, and fertilizer supply. It's not just the US seeing inflation. Inflation is over 7% in the EU. Is Biden responsible for that too?



    Because you disagree with policies, doesn't mean they're bad. For the 8 million people who were unemployed when Biden took office, but are working now. the policies were good. For the poorest working Americans who saw the biggest income increases, the policies have been good. Jobs that were paying minimum wage before the pandemic, are now paying $14 - $15 an hour. You want to ignore everything going on in the world, and blame everything on President Biden and the Fed. You want to ignore the war going on in Ukraine. You want to ignore entire cities being locked down in China. You want to ignore the pandemic, that has had such a major impact on our economy.
    We have both posted facts and figures to support our arguments. Well, at least you've tried i.e. when your links actually say something like what you claim they do. I am trying to avoid being repetitive and beating dead horses into dust.

    As I posted, under Trump production INCREASED and even you can't deny that. The numbers are what they are. Production NOW is 11.5 barrels per day. Under Trump it was almost 13 million. I hope we can agree that 13 million is more than 11.5 million.

    Two problems with Saudi oil : It costs money to ship it over here. It is not shipped for free. Who do you think pays the shipping costs ? Why is it cheaper to send Alaskan oil to Japan than to the lower 48 ? More importantly we have little to no control over how much oil the Saudis produce. We CAN control how much oil WE produce. The one wild card and I doubt that Biden is smart enough to even recognize it let alone play it properly is if he trades a crackdown on Iran for more Saudi oil. That is why the UAE and Saudis wouldn't even take his call a while back. And it's the only way to keep them from telling Biden to fuck off.

    What was inflation when Trump left office ? What is it NOW ? What was the price of oil in January 2021 ? What is it now ? Gasoline then ? Gas now ? Heating oil then ? Now ?

    I know. I know . NONE of this is Biden's fault. Of course not. How silly of me.

    "Other than Jack getting shot , how did you like Texas Mrs. Kennedy ? " What was INFLATION when Biden took office ? What is it now ? Economic growth for the 1st Quarter of 2022 was DOWN 1.4 %. Inflation is way up and real wages are way down. And we are just barely starting to see the effects of upward wage pressure. As workers try to at least stay even with inflation and preserve their buying power they will demand higher wages as they did in the 1970's. That will increase employer costs resulting in guess what ? Higher prices.

    The economy and employment were well on the way to recovering from the Covid shutdowns when Biden took office. There was no need for his wild and crazy spending.

    As far as Ukraine, that was begat by Biden's pathetically weak performance with the Afghanistan withdrawl , coupled with factually delinquent analyses of Russian and Ukrainian capabilities capped off by Biden's weak and stupid talk about "minor incursions" etc. Love him or hate him , Putin would never have invaded if Trump were in office. We know that because he did not make a single aggressive move with Trump in power. He feared Trump as did the Chinese. They did not know what he would do in a particular situation and acted accordingly.

    Is the baby formula shortage Biden's fault ? You betcha ! His FDA was warned as far back as September that supplies would be low. That was BEFORE Abbott Labs shut down its plant in February. Two infants who were on their formula died but to date there is NO EVIDENCE that Abbott's product infected or killed them. The CDC did NOT find any connection. They could have done a product recall without shutting down the plant. Canada has plenty of formula but Biden won't let it in. Despite Biden Administration assurances that help is on the way, people actually IN the baby formula biz say that shortages will last for the rest of the year. I'm not even going to touch what Biden's Bunch did with huge quantities of formula. Just google " Pallets , baby formula , southern border " and say : "Thanks Joe."

    Afaic that is what we have with Biden. Scarcity, shortage and higher prices .You , I am sure , will of course disagree.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 05-17-2022 at 11:58 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    We have both posted facts and figures to support our arguments. Well, at least you've tried i.e. when your links actually say something like what you claim they do. I am trying to avoid being repetitive and beating dead horses into dust.
    You rarely posts facts and figures. Instead, you try to get "facts" to fit your narrative.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    As I posted, under Trump production INCREASED and even you can't deny that. The numbers are what they are. Production NOW is 11.5 barrels per day. Under Trump it was almost 13 million. I hope we can agree that 13 million is more than 11.5 million.
    You continue to post this lie, again, and again, and again, even after being called out on it multiple times. When Trump left office, oil production was 11 million barrels a day. Current production is 11.8 million bpd.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    Two problems with Saudi oil : It costs money to ship it over here. It is not shipped FOB. More importantly we have little to no control over how much oil the Saudis produce. We CAN control how much oil WE produce. The one wild card and I doubt that Biden is smart enough to even recognize it let alone play it properly is if he trades a crackdown on Iran for more Saudi oil. That is why the UAE and Saudis wouldn't even take his call a while back. And it's the only way to keep them from telling Biden to fuck off.
    You're completely clueless as to how the oil market works. Whatever the final cost of oil from Saudi Arabia is, that is what American oil producers are going to sell it for. We don't have control over how much oil WE produce. We produce as much oil as oil companies are willing to produce at whatever the price of oil is. If Saudi Arabia wants a higher price for oil, they can just as easily cut production as we can increase production.

    If it would cost an oil broker in NJ $100 a barrel to buy oil from Saudi Arabia, why would an oil producer in Texas sell it for any less?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    What was inflation when Trump left office ? What is it NOW ? What was the price of oil in January 2021 ? What is it now ? Gasoline then ? Gas now ? Heating oil then ? Now ?

    I know. I know . NONE of this is Biden's fault. Of course not. Hiow silly of me.
    When it comes to economics, you're completely clueless as well. Your knowledge is less than zero. The only thing you understand is that you hate President Biden and are going to find fault with everything he does. The price of oil is up everywhere, not just in the US. Inflation is up everywhere, not just in the US. You don't have even the slightest understanding of basic economic concepts, such as how supply and demand works.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Stoner View Post
    As far as Ukraine, that was begat by Biden's pathetically weak performance with the Afghanistan withdrawl , coupled with factually delinquent analyses of Russian and Ukrainian capabilities capped off by Biden's weak and stupid talk about "minor incursions" etc. Love him or hate him , Putin would never have invaded if Trump were in office. We know that because he did not make a single aggressive move with Trump in power. He feared Trump as did the Chinese. They did not know what he would do in a particular situation and acted accordingly.
    You're just making stuff up. Putin started moving troops near Ukraine's border before the US withdrew from Afghanistan. You're completely disconnected from reality when it comes to Trump. Trump was Putin's lapdog. Putin did make aggressive moves when Trump was in office. You don't know what was going on in Syria? Putin wanted Trump reelected, which is why he didn't invade Ukraine when Trump was in office.
    Last edited by eagle2; 05-18-2022 at 02:08 AM.

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