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Thread: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

  1. #101
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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    We have so many really smart people on Stripperweb.



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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    DJ,

    In the case of sales volume for an already existing product which is an asset, sales volume setting records means the market is fluid- techically liquid. Both buyers and sellers are freely selling the asset at a mutually agreed price. People who want to go upscale can do so as well as people who want to go downscale or move out of town.

    Dangerous mismatches in the market place show up as a large supply of homes for sale and weak sales. The ratio is very high. The number of homes for sale relative to actual sales is the last column on the first page of the link I posted before. At 4.3 months it is almost at a record low (4.2). Buyers and sellers can list their house and buy a new one very easily with no awkward lag. A year ago during what was then a record sales pace the ratio was 4.9 months. There are no more homes for sale today than there were a year ago.

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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    Found this article today: http://forbes.com/lifestyle/realesta...24home_ls.html

    Most Expensive Home Sales In America 2004
    Sara Clemence

    This was a year of record-breaking real estate sales, with high-end properties pushing through price ceilings around the country. In fact, the average price of the homes on our list jumped from last year's $25.9 million to $34.9 million, a dramatic increase of nearly 35%.

    *
    Click here for the slide show.
    *Significantly, in 2004 the record for the most expensive house ever sold in the U.S. was broken when billionaire Ronald O. Perelman unloaded his Palm Beach estate for $70 million. Perelman, 61, whose holding company MacAndrew & Forbes owns cosmetics producer Revlon (nyse: REV - news - people ) and flavoring maker M&F Worldwide (nyse: MFW - news - people ), sold to Dwight C. Schar, 62, who has been chief excutive of Virginia-based construction service company NVR for 18 years, and is a part owner of the Washington Redskins football team. The sale price shouldn't be too much of a stretch for Schar, who had a paycheck last year of $58 million, making him the fifth best-paid CEO on our annual roundup of executive pay.

    The $70 million sale beat the previous record set in 1996, when Thunderbird Lodge in Lake Tahoe, Nev., sold for $50 million. But it wasn't an anomaly. From Palm Beach to Buffalo, prices were moving up.

    The National Association of Realtors expects the median price for an existing American home to be up nearly 8% this year, to $182,500. But the top props shifted even more dramatically.

    In Rhode Island, a Newport estate sold for $10.3 million, making it the priciest residential purchase in the mansion town's history. Honolulu saw a record-setting $17.5 million sale of an oceanfront estate. And they didn't even make our top ten. In 2003, a $42 million-plus penthouse in the Time Warner Center in New York topped off our list of the most expensive home sales. This year's winner surpassed that by 66% and two others also cleared the $42 million mark.

    One thing that didn't change was that our list was studded with top business names, such as Donald Trump and Robert Hurst, retired vice-chairman of Goldman Sachs Group (nyse: GS - news - people ).

    The list could look very different if we included properties that didn't close this year. Media mogul Rupert Murdoch set a New York residential price record by offering $44 million for the Fifth Avenue triplex owned by the late Laurance Rockefeller. But Murdoch still needs to be approved by the building's notoriously tough co-op board.

    And there are open contracts at the Time Warner Center that would also make the top ten says Jonathan Miller, president of real estate appraisal and consulting firm Miller Samuel.

    Next year could be even bigger. The penthouse at the Pierre Hotel in Manhattan is still on the market for $70 million, as is Three Ponds, a Bridgehampton estate with an asking price of $75 million.

    "That could be telling of where the upper end of the market is going to go," Miller says.

    Higher interest rates will likely not put a damper on things. In a survey of luxury home buyers by Coldwell Banker Real Estate, 61% of respondents said that rates would not affect their buying decisions.

    "If we could have narrowed it down to super-duper (luxury buyers), it would have been higher," says Jim Gillespie, president and chief executive of Coldwell Banker, a division of Cendant (nyse: CD - news - people ). "I don't see anything that makes me think that the market's not going to continue to go crazy."

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    Smiley Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    You must be in Florida. Housing prices keep going up here, the problem is our wages are to low here.If you have any houses to sell, contact me private.

  5. #105
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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    it's not just florida....

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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    What DJ Wolf doesn't understand is that people now are starting to buy investment properties at record paces. With loans on investment properties that require only 5% down, and interest only rates as low as 2%, as a mortgage lender, I see more and more people with multiple properties in their credit reports. Also, more renters now are buying instead of renting, so his theories are not well though out.

  7. #107
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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    While it's a fact that housing prices have been going up more and more in the last 5-6 years, the fact is that this is a bubble and it's gonna burts. The increase in home prices is outpacing income increases to the point where it's gonna have to hit critical mass soon. The luxury market will continue to have buyers since there are more millionaires now in the U.S. than ever before, but the middle class is gradually vanishing.

    Bridgette, I know buying in Baltimore sounds appealing initially because prices seem cheap, but be careful. A lot of thouse boarded up houses have been passed around for years by people with the same idea who lost their investment because of the rampant crime in those areas. And I know for a fact that the house across the street from you sold for $600K. I was looking at it and saw how much it was online and was stunned. I've been in Baltimore since '96 and know the neighborhoods a lot better. Baltimore lenders have a history of being unscrupulous too. Do a ton of research before you buy. Typical rents for those boarded up neighborhoods are $200-$300 a month and the people that rent those apartments are people that are, uh, challenged in many ways, to say the least. Remember Mike's neighborhood? There's your target demographic.

    There are some gems to be found though, but you're gonna have to do some digging, because they're not as obvious as rehabbing a condemed, rat-infested 10K former crack house.

    I admit that if I knew I would have stayed in Baltimore as long as I did I would have bought a house, but houses in decent neighborhoods are going fast. Kermit210 bought a house in the city last year and the houses in her soon to be formerly blue-collar neighborhood sell the day the hit the market.

    People need to stop seeing houses as investments solely and start looking at them as homes again. Yes, it's great of you're house appreciates. My mother's house was recently appraised at $1.2 MILLION and she bought it 15 years ago for $150K. But she's gonna LIVE in it because it's her HOME.

    All these specualtors make me nauseous. They're driving prices up into a frenzy and making it harder every day for regular hard-working people to own a decent home. Fuck low interest rates. A low percentage of an artificially inflated price still sucks.
    "She has written so well, and marvellously well, that I was completely ashamed of myself as a writer...But this girl, who is to my knowledge very unpleasant and we might even say a high-grade bitch, can write rings around all of us who consider ourselves as writers"

    Ernest Hemingway on writer, aviation pioneer and horse trainer Beryl Markham


  8. #108
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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    Quote Originally Posted by NinaDaisy
    the fact is that this is a bubble and it's gonna burts.
    This is not a fact. It's a hunch. While evidence may suggest it, we don't know it will happen for sure.

    The increase in home prices is outpacing income increases to the point where it's gonna have to hit critical mass soon. The luxury market will continue to have buyers since there are more millionaires now in the U.S. than ever before, but the middle class is gradually vanishing.
    It could be possible that the price of housing increases at a slower rate than income, but increases nonetheless. Why would you suggest the middle class is vanishing?
    People need to stop seeing houses as investments solely and start looking at them as homes again. Yes, it's great of you're house appreciates. My mother's house was recently appraised at $1.2 MILLION and she bought it 15 years ago for $150K. But she's gonna LIVE in it because it's her HOME.
    Like any investment, it takes knowledge of the market conditions. It is a home first, but it can serve as an investment as well, so why not make the most of it?

    All these specualtors make me nauseous. They're driving prices up into a frenzy and making it harder every day for regular hard-working people to own a decent home. Fuck low interest rates. A low percentage of an artificially inflated price still sucks.
    True. It's very scary. This is why it's more important now than ever to start thinking about buying a first house.

  9. #109
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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    Emily,

    Well, you're definitely right about the "bubble" idea being a hunch, but I'm far from being the only person that has it.

    I absolutely agree that real estate CAN be a great investment, but the the frenzy over it now is making people ignore diversification of their investments. Too much house "flipping" going on to make a quick buck.

    The middle class IS vanishing and that's a fact. The rich are getting richer and more people are also sliding into poverty every day. It's not uncommon to see a family of four with a combined income of $30-$40K a year going to food banks. One main reason is increased housing costs!

    The point of my last comment is that for a lot of people buying that first house is outside of their reach, so how can they start thinking about buying one if the odds are stacked against them so much?
    "She has written so well, and marvellously well, that I was completely ashamed of myself as a writer...But this girl, who is to my knowledge very unpleasant and we might even say a high-grade bitch, can write rings around all of us who consider ourselves as writers"

    Ernest Hemingway on writer, aviation pioneer and horse trainer Beryl Markham


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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    A lot of people think it's a bubble and it may burst. That may be correct, but people were saying that 2-3 years ago and it just grew. If we do assume this is the case, we cannot assume that that time is now.

    I also don't know why a booming real estate market means people aren't diversifying. If they aren't, that's their own stupid fault. That's like the first rule of investing.

    The point about the declining middle class may be true (although this is the first time I've heard of this), but it doesn't stop the rates of sales. More people are buying homes now than before.

    And to your last comment....a lot of people buy a lot of stuff they can't afford. That's the American way! This isn't changing.

  11. #111
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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    Your points are all valid Emily, no question.

    I'm not necessarily saying all this is good or bad. I think a lot of people are still gun-shy about the stock market and see homes as a more "secure" investment.

    It's just been a self-perpetuating frenzy. Yes, there have been murmurs of the bubble bursting for about 2 years now, but I wonder how much of that spurred buying to try to cash in before it ended.

    Baltimore isn't really having too much of this. A few blocks away from Bridgette someone has been trying to unload two spearate houses for $500,000 and $750,000. Both "fixer-uppers"! Her neighborhood is mostly college kids and a few long-time middle aged hippie homeowners. People are just getting greedy and some are refusing to buy into it.

    I'm definitely watching this phenomenon to see where it's going. Whether the bubble bursts this year or in 10, I doubt this rate of price increases can be sustained, which is my main point.
    "She has written so well, and marvellously well, that I was completely ashamed of myself as a writer...But this girl, who is to my knowledge very unpleasant and we might even say a high-grade bitch, can write rings around all of us who consider ourselves as writers"

    Ernest Hemingway on writer, aviation pioneer and horse trainer Beryl Markham


  12. #112
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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    I wonder that too, but look at San Fransisco bay area....the price of a modest "fixer-upper" is in the 300-400s. People still manage to live there. I don't know how though!

  13. #113
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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    Much like in London, where housing costs are so high, people basically get stuck in roommate situations or spending ALL their money on housing - or moving waaaaayy out in the suburbs and commuting 2 hours+ to work.

    Nina, you bet I'm not jumping into the first cheapass boarded up crack house I see. LOL You have to do alot of research in any market. I agree alot of those boarded up houses I see have clearly been passed around, but I have a hunch many of them have been passing through the hands of people who leapt before they looked and couldn't exactly afford the necessary renovations. I know what some of the houses in my neighborhood go for. Ridiculous. Believe me I'll be doing my homework before handing my money over.

    Quote Originally Posted by pheno View Post
    When you lead a nontraditional life don't try to measure it with traditional milestones.

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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    The point about the declining middle class may be true (although this is the first time I've heard of this), but it doesn't stop the rates of sales. More people are buying homes now than before.
    It may be true that more homes have been bought and sold in 2004 than in previous years. However, I have to believe that the massive 9 billion dollar scandal at Fannie Mae is going to result in a severe tightening of creditworthiness requirements for first time home buyers in the very near future. However, this obviously won't affect the 'millionaire' McMansion home market, only lower echelon 'starter homes', 'fixer uppers' etc. - which I guess further plays into the theory of a declining middle class. But this could/would leave the would-be sellers of 'starter homes', 'fixer uppers' etc. with a severe shortage of qualified potential buyers, thus putting major downward pressure on the future pricing of such homes.

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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    also, here's some fresh news on the subject ...

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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    There will always be lenders out there who will finance anyone. There are ways to get around this such as no doc loans, no income verify. Fannie may isnt the only lender out there.

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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    Quote Originally Posted by michele1
    There will always be lenders out there who will finance anyone. There are ways to get around this such as no doc loans, no income verify. Fannie may isnt the only lender out there.
    Michele, in the case of dancers who actually do have an adequate income to cover mortgage payments (documented or not), I totally agree with you. However, where blue collar workers are concerned, i.e. where payroll records do exist which clearly show they do NOT have an adequate income to cover potential mortgage payments, tightening of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac loan criteria (plus adoption of the same tighter criteria by commercial and savings banks) is definitely going to boot many of these 'unqualified' buyers out of the real estate market.

    Like the Vegas story, in any local market where real estate prices stagnate, or particularly in any real estate market where potential real estate prices actually go into decline, lenders are going to become VERY selective in terms of writing new mortgage loans. The reason for this is obvious. In the past, with rising real estate values, if the mortgage went into default the lender still made money since the house they could repossess was worth more than the mortgage loan balance they wrote a year or two or three earlier. But in the future, it's entirely possible that the actual market value of a repossessed home will NOT be sufficient for the lender to recoup the outstanding mortgage loan balance in the case of a default.

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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    Michele, in the case of dancers who actually do have an adequate income to cover mortgage payments (documented or not), I totally agree with you. However, where blue collar workers are concerned, i.e. where payroll records do exist which clearly show they do NOT have an adequate income to cover potential mortgage payments, tightening of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac loan criteria (plus adoption of the same tighter criteria by commercial and savings banks) is definitely going to boot many of these 'unqualified' buyers out of the real estate market.
    You're wrong Mel. If someone has a high enough credit score...they can do a no doc/no verification loan. Those loans are not just for dancers. Even a lot of the big banks are doing those loans now, without having the borrower paying 8%+.

    FannieMae/FreddieMac loans are not as widely used anymore. With the increase of "criteria" to get them, a lot of people are moving more towards the other lenders. Less headache.

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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    A high credit score does NOT override the fact that a blue collar worker's W2 and employer payroll records clearly show that they cannot afford to make the mortgage payments on the property they are seeking to buy. No doc /no verification loans are primarily of value when the would-be buyer actually has sources of income or actually has assets which make them a reasonably good credit risk. Financial institutions are going to be very skittish about writing a loan in any form where the would-be buyer has a clear documented trail showing that they really can't afford the payments, regardless of how well they have been able to manage their personal finances in the past (i.e. good credit score). This is even more true in markets where property values have stagnated or are actually in decline, such that the lending institution would have a very hard time recouping the loan principle via foreclosure and auction/resale.

    Granted, if the potential buyer is in a position to cough up a 20%-25%-30% down payment, regardless of their actual income and actual ability to make mortgage payments, then their large down payment bridges the lender's potential auction/resale value gap and all things are possible. However, your typical blue collar worker is usually not in a position to come up with this substantial of a down payment. Therefore, without a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to substitute the 'full faith and credit' of our tax money in place of a substantial down payment, lending institutions are going to be very skittish about the degree of risk they're willing to assume. IMHO this will wind up icing the vast majority of blue collar would-be first time home buyers out of the market entirely unless/until they save up the 20%-25%-30% down payment first (and the odds of that happening are virtually nil given today's economy).

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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    Melonoe you are missing the point. No doc loans are just that no doc. You dont have to show any proof of income or how much you make. They are ways for lenders to get anyone financed.

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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    I think Mel gets it. She is saying that the problem is that they will need to come up with 20%+ down, which is really hard to do.

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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    Another good point Emily, especially with the rising house prices.

    What about the effect of first-time homebuyer incentive programs on mortgage availability?

    Michele, yes you are probably right about being able to find financing for a home if you look hard enough, but people need to beware of unscrupulous lenders that are little more than loan sharks with a storefront. Baltimore's had a lot of problems with that sort of thing in recent years, fro one.
    "She has written so well, and marvellously well, that I was completely ashamed of myself as a writer...But this girl, who is to my knowledge very unpleasant and we might even say a high-grade bitch, can write rings around all of us who consider ourselves as writers"

    Ernest Hemingway on writer, aviation pioneer and horse trainer Beryl Markham


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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    A high credit score does NOT override the fact that a blue collar worker's W2 and employer payroll records clearly show that they cannot afford to make the mortgage payments on the property they are seeking to buy. No doc /no verification loans are primarily of value when the would-be buyer actually has sources of income or actually has assets which make them a reasonably good credit risk. Financial institutions are going to be very skittish about writing a loan in any form where the would-be buyer has a clear documented trail showing that they really can't afford the payments, regardless of how well they have been able to manage their personal finances in the past (i.e. good credit score). This is even more true in markets where property values have stagnated or are actually in decline, such that the lending institution would have a very hard time recouping the loan principle via foreclosure and auction/resale.

    Granted, if the potential buyer is in a position to cough up a 20%-25%-30% down payment, regardless of their actual income and actual ability to make mortgage payments, then their large down payment bridges the lender's potential auction/resale value gap and all things are possible. However, your typical blue collar worker is usually not in a position to come up with this substantial of a down payment. Therefore, without a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac to substitute the 'full faith and credit' of our tax money in place of a substantial down payment, lending institutions are going to be very skittish about the degree of risk they're willing to assume. IMHO this will wind up icing the vast majority of blue collar would-be first time home buyers out of the market entirely unless/until they save up the 20%-25%-30% down payment first (and the odds of that happening are virtually nil given today's economy).

    No, you are wrong. There are no doc/no income and asset verification...you don't have to prove anything. You TELL the bank how much money you make and if your credit score is high enough, they'll take you at your word. You are basing every banks "requirements" on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. It's not like that anymore. There are people who do no doc/no income/asset verifications and 95-100% financing. There are plenty of banks out there willing to do whatever it takes to get more money...and if you have a high enough credit score, you can say whatever you want to get that house you want.

    I am a first-time homebuyer, and got a no doc loan at 100% financing. I'm refinancing my house with the same method. I chose to put my money elsewhere instead of down on my place. If your credit score is high enough, then the bank "doesn't care".

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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    I don't believe you are getting these "no-doc" loans from a BANK. FDIC Regulations and the Fiduciary responsibility of a Bank to it's shareholders just won't allow a REAL Bank to make this kind of loan on a Mortgage basis. When Banks make "no-doc" loans based on credit score alone its called a CREDIT CARD!

    I DO Believe that there are private investment firms out there who ARE making "no-doc" loans to SOME PEOPLE who are buying SOME Properties but these loans are deeply tied into the value of the property itself where the "Lender" actually WANTS the borrower to default after making payments/improvements. In some cases (usually with a big down payment) the borrower is actually set up to fail and default. The financing world is CRAZY right now. Its where all the crooks are working.

    "No-doc" loans are nothing new. They used to be called "personal loans" and "lines of credit" which have turned into Credit Cards. Something everyone needs to remember is that no matter what documentation or collateral you place with the lender to secure the loan ...EVERYTHING YOU OWN CAN BE RE-POSSESSED AND SOLD TO COVER A LOAN THAT HAS BEEN CALLED DUE! And a loan can be called due at almost any time. You'll owe the loan balance ....not just the value of the collateral .... so be VERY Careful with creative financing. This is just one reason why SMART People say "Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment".
    14 years working in Strip Clubs. "What a long strange trip it's been"

  25. #125
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    Default Re: Home Ownership may no longer be the best investment ...

    as a non "SMART People", tell me what the best investment is

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