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Thread: How to fix California?

  1. #1
    madmaxine
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    Default How to fix California?

    A lifelong resident of the Golden State, I watched Governor Arnold Schwartznegger's State of the State address with interest. Where I live, we have gone through incredible urban sprawl and growing pains in the past 15 years. Hurtfully, impoverished and rural residents get edged out of benefitting from state programs (bonds voted down, fund aportionment done by population of district/ county......) and social programs are like money giveaways for crackheads. (Seeing tax money wasted here turned me away from my lifelong political rearing......) Uh, let's not even talk about the energy crisises.......too embarrassing!!!
    How do we fix the Golden State?

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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    There is no hope.

    It is washing out to sea or will be burned or shaken out. All in the name of development and lifestyle.

    Too bad. It has some nice scenery.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    Quote Originally Posted by madmaxine
    A lifelong resident of the Golden State, I watched Governor Arnold Schwartznegger's State of the State address with interest...How do we fix the Golden State?
    As a fellow lifelong citizen of California, I'm not sure it can be repaired. I guess it can, as New York City did emerge from bankruptcy back in the '70s, but I believe the problems here, as it is a state instead of one of the largest cities in the world, are going to be much worse. Although it seems to me history is repeating itself, as some of the same "smoke & mirrors" accounting tricks used by NYC politicians back then at least seem to be being used in California now.

    I don't agree with our current governor on much, but I do agree with him about ending the gerrymandering of our state assembly & senate districts. It would make most state politicians much more responsive to the people they claim to represent.

    You also need heavy reform of tax policy, and no matter what, it seems there is never enough money to suit the politicians.

    Our school system needs to be reformed, and I've read a number of editorials on op-ed pages stating we need to spend more per student. Given the competition between various groups for any new revenues and other reasons, I'm not sure that would work here anymore, if it ever did in the past. But it is ridiculous to have teachers paying for school supplies for their students out of their own salaries.

    I read an article in the "Los Angeles Times" a couple of months ago wherein a woman who had a private preschool had an increase of $10,000 in her workers comp insurance. Why? Because the insurance company redefined her business as a day-care center. How many other businesses will either close, or move to other states due only to the increasing expense of workers comp. You have to eliminate fraud, of course, as best you can, but the insurance companies and politicians must shoulder their fair share of the responsibility as well.

    How does immigration, both of the legal & illegal variety from other countries, and the legal immigration from other states affect California as well? I don't have any answers, and even if studies are done, as they have been, the results are going to be intentionallly skewed by whomever is financing the studies.

    How do all of these aspects, as well as others, interact with each other? Again, I'll leave that to people far smarter than I am, and hope above hope they can find some viable answers. Meanwhile, the "Silver State" continues to look more and more "Golden" than the "Golden State"...at least to me.


    PhaedrusZ

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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    actually, it's a case of immigration versus emigration. Illegals, the poor and poorly educated are moving INTO California, driven at least in part by the state's generous social benefit programs, subsidized college tuitions, and decent paying 'blue collar' jobs (i.e. no WalMart to drive down wages and prices, and lots of unionization to raise blue collar paychecks). But these immigrants by and large absorb more tax dollars than they contribute.

    On the other hand, upper middle class Californians now seeing their state income tax and property taxes heading upward at an alarming rate. They are also seeing white collar jobs being relocated to different states or outsourced altogether so that employers can reduce their indirect labor costs. These upper middle class people are emigrating across the Nevada border or to other states, and thus reducing California's tax receipts. This "snowball" effect of increasing social program costs and a decreasing tax base over which to collect the money to pay those costs was the formula for disaster in New York, and California is clearly headed in exactly the same direction.

    If it proceeds as it has in New York, after several years you'll be left with more and more social benefit recipients, a significant number of "mega-rich" Californians who don't care about the taxes (or who can afford the lawyers and accountants to beat them), but what you'll also see are California businesses and middle class wageearners heading for the exits. The only alternative is for state politics to change enough such that state politicians will agree to CUT SPENDING SIGNIFICANTLY i.e. reduce social welfare benefit levels, reduce college tuition subsidies, reduce utility bill subsidies, reduce unemployment/comp payouts. However, California politics is such that doing these things is virtually unthinkable, with a politically correct state initiative to spend a new 3 billion dollars of state tax money to subsidize stem cell research as well as a politically correct ruling to force gov't and private employers to now pick up the tab on an entirely new class of benefiticaries i.e. gay spouses !

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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    ...If it proceeds as it has in New York, after several years you'll be left with more and more social benefit recipients, a significant number of "mega-rich" Californians who don't care about the taxes (or who can afford the lawyers and accountants to beat them), but what you'll also see are California businesses and middle class wageearners heading for the exits. The only alternative is for state politics to change enough such that state politicians will agree to CUT SPENDING SIGNIFICANTLY i.e. reduce social welfare benefit levels, reduce college tuition subsidies, reduce utility bill subsidies, reduce unemployment/comp payouts. However, California politics is such that doing these things is virtually unthinkable, with a politically correct state initiative to spend a new 3 billion dollars of state tax money to subsidize stem cell research as well as a politically correct ruling to force gov't and private employers to now pick up the tab on an entirely new class of benefiticaries i.e. gay spouses !
    Just today, in Michael Hiltzik's "Golden State" column in the business section of the "Los Angeles Times," he is writing our governor should increase taxes. The figures he gives in his article are rasing the tax rate from the top 9.3% to 10% on all incomes higher than $500,000 and to 11% to those earning more than one million annually "...would yield as much as $2.5 billion a year...".

    However, Tom Campbell, the current finance director here is concerned about businesses leaving the state. While Hiltzik writes about Pete Wilson and Ronald Reagan, both Republicans, having raised taxes in the past when faced with budget shortfalls, it was indicated Campbell is considering the fact "...employers are more mobile today, which narrows policymaker's options." However, Hiltzik argues/implies here that businesses will want to remain in California, due to, "its huge customer base."

    All in all, due to legislative "gridlock" here, I am not optimistic these problems will be solved before a financial "critical mass" is reached, which will make our current problems here look like the proverbial, "walk in the park."


    PhaedrusZ

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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    Melonie has it right, sadly.

    I'm not sure you could pay me enough to move to Cali.
    Idealism is fine, but as it approaches reality, the costs become prohibitive.

    William F. Buckley, Jr.

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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    lots of explosives along the western border of Nevada....


    jk

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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    ..... and private employers to now pick up the tab on an entirely new class of benefiticaries i.e. gay spouses !
    You may be right about some other observations, but oh PUH-leeze!
    Just how many gay spouses claiming benefits do you think there are gonna be??? The fiscal impact for the tiny number of gay employees "spouses" will not add up to much....unless there has been a sudden gigantic surge of gay people flooding into the already sh*tty California jobforce! No....I don't think so!!!!

    You can talk about other drains on California economy & our employers.....but don't even bother trying to use gay spouses as a source of financial ruin.....the numbers just don't add up.

    I don't want to turn this into yet another gay-related thread....so hopefully it will end right here.

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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    Just how many gay spouses claiming benefits do you think there are gonna be??? The fiscal impact for the tiny number of gay employees "spouses" will not add up to much....unless there has been a sudden gigantic surge of gay people flooding into the already sh*tty California jobforce! No....I don't think so!!!!
    Well, there is a considerable body of CDC data which indicates that the likelihood of a gay American developing full blown AIDS is nearly 20 times as high as the odds for the general population. This is primarily the result of gay men's activities in the 90's which allowed them to contract HIV, perhaps without a full understanding of the health problem. So yes you are correct in a numerical sense that in fact the addition of gay spouses to the beneficiary rolls of California corporations and civil service employers may perhaps be only one extra beneficiary per 100 current beneficiaries. But th these corporations and employers, it is the dollars that matters much more than the numbers.

    Insurance companies already have actuarial tables which show the likelihood of a gays and/or gay spouse dying well before the average lifespan is pretty high statistically. This translates into life insurance premiums which are way above average, given not only that the benefit will need to be paid sooner but that many fewer years of 'contributions' will be made by the gay employee prior to collecting the benefit. The same applies to health insurance, where the likelihood of a gay and/or gay spouse developing AIDS related serious health problems is much higher than average, where the average medical bills for treating those AIDS related health problems are also much higher than average, and as before the gay employee will statistically make many fewer "contributions" towards the cost because the employee is also much more likely to be forced to stop work before retirement age due to health problems. If you attach a dollar value to the extra 1 gay spouse per 100 existing employees and spouses, the 1% addition can perhaps result in a 30% across the board increase in the employer's cost of providing life and health insurance for ALL employees, because that one gay spouse is statistically so much more likely to require expensive health benefit payouts, is statistically so much more likely to die sooner, and their spouse is also so much more likely to do the same thus making perhaps 10 or 15 years fewer 'contributions' to the cost of those benefits.

    As to your laughing off the possibility of a gay migration to California, all I can tell you is that on the east coast there has already been a noticeable gay migration to Massachusetts. If it becomes official California state policy that gay marriage is legal, and/or that employers are required to provide health and life insurance coverage to gay spouses (which in other states would cost the gay spouse incredibly high insurance premiums if they could find a company willing to write the policies in the first place) then yes there is a large incentive for gays living in other states, especially conservative states, to consider migrating to California !

    You're right that this is not going to turn into a gay bashing. Statistically, smokers also generate higher life insurance costs and higher health insurance costs for employers. However, the law allows employers to charge smokers higher premiums for health and life insurance coverage for themselves and for their dependents who smoke. If the law is changed to allow the actual statistical risk factors of gays and gay spouses to be reflected in their employee/dependent insurance coverage, then I agree that the financial impact will be minimal. However if, unlike smokers, the law requires employers to provide employee/dependent coverage to gays at the same effective rates as for straight employee/dependents (as it presently does) then there will be a large financial impact on the across the board cost to employers to provide life and health insurance to all employees. There is no doubt that this possibility has scared many corporations, as they already have their attorneys scrambling for ways to avoid having to provide equal coverage for gay employees and gay spouses (i.e. self-insurance with a stated policy regarding gays as well as smokers). In the final analysis, if current law is not changed, providing "equal" life and health insurance benefits for gays and gay spouses will either result in a huge reduction in benefits to ALL employees, or a huge cost increase to employers.
    Last edited by Melonie; 01-15-2005 at 05:22 AM.

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    God/dess Lena's Avatar
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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    Let's keep it about California, please...



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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    It was not my intention to sidetrack the discussion over the issue of gays, or more specifically the extra costs to businesses of a state gov't mandate to provide "equal" health and life insurance coverage for gay spouses. However, as this issue IS specific to California and Massachusetts, it definitely factors into the California equation vs emigration targets of Nevada or 47 other states.

    At any rate, here's a good example of the accelerating trend, with some 5000 PeopleSoft employees getting their pink slips this week ...



    (snip)“The new company is going to be totally different,” said Anil Aggarwal, PeopleSoft’s director of database markets. “PeopleSoft had an easygoing, relaxed atmosphere. Oracle has an edgy, aggressive atmosphere that’s not conducive to innovative production.”

    The layoffs are a cornerstone of Oracle’s blueprint to trim its annual expenses dramatically as it strives to deliver on a promise to boost its profit by $400 million in the fiscal year ending in May 2006.(snip)
    Last edited by Melonie; 01-16-2005 at 07:32 AM.

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    Featured Member lopaw's Avatar
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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    Melonie-
    I think that your ideology is flawed, and you seem to be making sweeping generalizations concerning gay spouse benefit coverages. My counter thoughts on these issues would easily run 10 pages long, but I don't want to take this thread further OT, coz like Lena said.....let's keep it about California.

    That being said, I think that our Gov-inator might yet prove to be an asset for our state. He represents a political mix that seems to represent the majority of Californians - fiscally conservative, and socially moderate-to-liberal. He's a Republican that even staunch Democrats like me can support.

    Let's give him some time, and see what he can really do. He has been in "clean-up" mode ever since he took office (thanx Gray Davis!), and hopefully he'll help us get our Californian collective sh*t together.

    After all, he ain't no girly-man!

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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    Granted, gay spouse benefit costs are just a single component of California's very expensive comparative benefit costs. Certainly there are other large factors to be considered, such as CA courts granting very generous disability/comp settlements thus creating high disability/comp premiums. California labor costs in general are also very high, as a result of high civil service pay rates, extensive unionization, successful political opposition to "low cost" model businesses like WalMart, etc.

    I also agree that Arnold has been a positive force in CA - if for no other reason than him having the political balls to start discussing tax and spend political issues with CA voters over the heads of state politicians.

    However, something which MUST be kept in mind when trying to understand state politics/economies/tax policies etc. is the fact that things which are occurring today are actually the result of policies which existed several years ago, and decisions/reactions by businesses to those policies which set changes in motion which are taking effect today. The Oracle merger, outsourcing of tech support and programming to India, relocation of former California businesses to other states and other countries etc. did not happen overnight and will NEVER be reversed no matter what Arnold is able to accomplish.

    Consider what just the Oracle merger layoffs mean to California's state and local budgets. First off, they're likely to lose $5,000 per laid off employee in state/local income tax receipts = negative $25 mil. Next, the state must pay out unemployment benefits say average 18 weeks @ $400 = another negative $36 mil.

    Next figure on the permanent emigration of say 3000 of the 5000 laid off employees as they are unable to find replacement jobs in California which are in their field plus which provide an income level where survival is possible with CA's high cost of living. That means not only the permanent loss of say $5,000 per emigrant per year = negative $15mil in state/local tax receipts, but also means 3000 houses hitting the market at 'must sell' prices, it also means 1000 new cars and 1000 hi-def TV's not being sold by CA dealers, and on and on.

    California also will continue to pay a "price" for its ardent opposition to those currently in power in Washington D.C. - in the form of distribution of federal tax money. During most of the 80's and 90's Californians received approx the same amount of money back from Washington as they sent there in federal taxes. But last year, on the average, Californians sent $1,400 more per person to Washington than they got back in federal spending. See for more details.

    From the same website, for 2004 California ranked 39th (50 being worst) in corporate taxes, and 44th in individual income taxes. This is compared to nearby Nevada which ranked FIRST in corporate taxes, and 7th in individual income taxes. This is a huge incentive for businesses and individuals to emigrate, an incentive which cannot be turned around quickly, if ever. The days of easy high-tech earnings, zero cost stock options, and California sunshine overriding corporate accountant advice are over.

    .
    Last edited by Melonie; 01-17-2005 at 08:56 AM.

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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    Quote Originally Posted by madmaxine
    A lifelong resident of the Golden State, I watched Governor Arnold Schwartznegger's State of the State address with interest. Where I live, we have gone through incredible urban sprawl and growing pains in the past 15 years. Hurtfully, impoverished and rural residents get edged out of benefitting from state programs (bonds voted down, fund aportionment done by population of district/ county......) and social programs are like money giveaways for crackheads. (Seeing tax money wasted here turned me away from my lifelong political rearing......) Uh, let's not even talk about the energy crisises.......too embarrassing!!!
    How do we fix the Golden State?
    I couldn't agree with you more. I love California, this is my place of birth and no one could've ever told me it would get this fucked up.
    I moved to Houston for a few years and while Houston took me a while to get used to, I really miss it.
    I get so pissed when I drive down the freeway and see freaking mattresses laying on the shoulder. What has happend to the California mentality ?
    California has changed drastically. We vote measures into being only to have them either rewritten or just forgotten about. The school system sucks ass. We have had 65 schools close in my area alone. We are not talking about the WHOLE state. School districts are being taken over by the government due to miss handling.
    I am so tired of casting my ballot only to see it go no where. We will vote ofr stem cell research but, we won't vote for more money for our schools.
    And the money that does get allocated for the school system ends up get funneled into another program. I am extremely pissed the fuck off with California, our apathetic residents and our self serving representatives.
    My new love...is me !

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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    actually, it's a case of immigration versus emigration. Illegals, the poor and poorly educated are moving INTO California, driven at least in part by the state's generous social benefit programs, subsidized college tuitions, and decent paying 'blue collar' jobs (i.e. no WalMart to drive down wages and prices, and lots of unionization to raise blue collar paychecks). But these immigrants by and large absorb more tax dollars than they contribute.
    While I am usually a strong support of immigration ( my Grandfather and his family immigrated from Hungary ) I have to admit you are right. I see first hand what it is doing to the school system here.
    My new love...is me !

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    Jhuka

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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    We vote measures into being only to have them either rewritten or just forgotten about
    You'll have to talk to your liberal judges about this issue.

    School districts are being taken over by the government due to miss handling.
    I am so tired of casting my ballot only to see it go no where. We will vote ofr stem cell research but, we won't vote for more money for our schools.
    And the money that does get allocated for the school system ends up get funneled into another program.
    hmmh, with California teachers ranked #1 in terms of average salary vs teachers in any other state, and with California schools ranked #4 in student/teacher ratio, and with an average $7,700 per year in education budget per student which ranks 30th (source nea.org), the question is not so much of spending more but of questioning HOW the money is being spent now. Perhaps the state teacher's union should consider some concessions, given that the average California teacher is being paid over $58,000 a year for 8 months worth of work, plus wall to wall civil service benefits (and they don't have to take their clothes off !).

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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    You have to realize first that Calif. has suffered incredibly from illegal immigration... more than
    any other state. And decisions like "in state" prices for education for illegals don't help the matter.
    One plus is that California has the initiative and referendum, which many states still don't have.
    That may be our only hope for salvation or disaster. What we need to do is elect some better
    senators. Why? Because they are given say over 9th circuit judge nominations. The liberal
    9th circuit continually thwarts the will of the people with its ridiculous decisions.
    Another solution may be to split the state in two or even three parts. Small is beautiful, right?
    What I can't understand is why so many Californians supported Clinton who did everything
    possible to hurt California... he raised gasoline taxes (the life blood of the state), reduced
    military spending (aerospace/defense is a big industry), fought tort reform, failed to protect our
    international border from illegal immigration, etc. Same with Gray Davis: he hurt the state's
    economy more than any governor, yet was actually re-elected. And why did people vote
    for an eastern liberal like Kerry? As for future growth: the main concerns will be water
    and power.

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    Default Re: How to fix California?

    California actually won't have to worry all that much about adequate supplies of water and power. Businesses and industries which are leaving the state will reduce overall consumption quite a bit, and illegal immigrants moving in won't use anywhere near as much (providing California eventually stops subsidizing residential water and electric bills with tax money)

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