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Thread: for you "speculative" investors ... Bradley Model

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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default for you "speculative" investors ... Bradley Model

    The Bradley Model is based on planetary motion, which is probably more logical than most stock market forces LOL ! At any rate, this model called for the markets to turn up last January 25th (which it did) - and is now calling for the markets to turn down on February 16th.

    You can see the cycle turn dates on the chart at

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    Default Re: for you "speculative" investors ... Bradley Model

    Wow, I think I'll give the Bradley model much more credibility in the future. Just look at what's happened to the Dow since it peaked just before closing time on Feb. 16th - down more than 150 points ... so far !

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    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
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    Default Re: for you "speculative" investors ... Bradley Model

    Well Melonie. The moon is waxing gibbous.
    http://www.earthsky.com/skywatching/...ses-waxgib.php

    If you do not believe me, remember the words of the great man who said "Twas brillig and the slivey toves did gyre and gimble in the wabe."

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    Default Re: for you "speculative" investors ... Bradley Model

    Hmmm, that was easier to decypher than my Hong Kong stockbroker LOL !

    Maybe I should start consulting the Necronomicon for stock tips (refererence to Poo thread ) LOL

    Seriously, when I compared the Bradley Model's prediction from 2/13 to the 'week after' chart, I was pretty amazed at the correlation. Same applies to the 1/25 Bradley Model prediction and a large number of previous Bradley Model 'turn dates' versus actual changes in direction of the stock market. On a statistical basis if nothing else, there certainly appears to be much more happening here than raw coincidence.

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    Sitri
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    Default Re: for you "speculative" investors ... Bradley Model

    looks like I will start investing on March 3. Hey Melonie, what do you think about farm property in Nebraska/Iowa. It's been going up 12% / year lately..

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    Default Re: for you "speculative" investors ... Bradley Model

    Hey Melonie, what do you think about farm property in Nebraska/Iowa. It's been going up 12% / year lately..
    I hesitate to do much commenting because where real estate is concerned the local market conditions are usually the major factor involved. However, I am aware that there is currently a major gov't effort underway to subsidize/expand the production of ethanol - specifically the gov't providing grant money to construct local/regional ethanol 'refineries'. This of course will require large amounts of 'ingredients' i.e. corn, which in turn requires large amounts of farmland to grow. I know of one specific instance in Upstate NY where the corn capacity of the new ethanol refinery far exceeds the capacity of available local farmland, such that additional corn will need to be trucked in from ohio and indiana to keep it operating at 100% capacity once construction is completed ! However, it is doubtful that more local land will be turned over to corn production because of the 'oppressive' local property tax situation.

    This should have the result of increasing the demand for farmland in general. However, it will also significantly increase the demand for fertilizers, pesticides etc. which might be a better 'bet' than the farmland itself due to the absence of local issues i.e. property taxes. Chicago Corn futures might be an even purer play.

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    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
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    Default Re: for you "speculative" investors ... Bradley Model

    Quote Originally Posted by Sitri
    looks like I will start investing on March 3. Hey Melonie, what do you think about farm property in Nebraska/Iowa. It's been going up 12% / year lately..
    Sitri,
    Farm land in N/I is going up 12% per year because guys in Tampa and dentists in NJ are buying it because they hear farm income is up. Farm income is up because of subsidies (and improved position becasue of a weaker dollar). The guys who make money are the ones who bought the land for less than a quarter what you would pay for it.

    They will take your money today and buy the land back in 2 years (for a lot less) when you lost your shirt. You are better off sticking to the things you know. They know this game A LOT better than you do.

    Melonie, The Dow is at a recent high and the S&P 500 is 2 points off it. The "newspaper excuse" was the GDP report except anyone with the BEA's web address and 45 minutes time would have seen the revision coming within a 0.1 percentage point. The consensus had it within 0.1% a week before.http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html
    Anyone who saw the FT900 foreign trade report and the manufacturing and trade inventories saw it coming. Which planet was responsible for the press lunacy (pun intended)?

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    Default Re: for you "speculative" investors ... Bradley Model

    Melonie, The Dow is at a recent high and the S&P 500 is 2 points off it. The "newspaper excuse" was the GDP report except anyone with the BEA's web address and 45 minutes time would have seen the revision coming within a 0.1 percentage point. The consensus had it within 0.1% a week before.
    Anyone who saw the FT900 foreign trade report and the manufacturing and trade inventories saw it coming. Which planet was responsible for the press lunacy (pun intended)?
    Quite some time ago I learned that true market fundamentals, i.e. which companies logically are positioned to increase growth and/or earnings, has much less effect on the overall market than media hype, hedge fund managers, creative writing in gov't reports, merger mania, middle east rumors, etc. If one were to go with true market fundamentals, one would think that the current markets are vastly overpriced and overdue for a major decline.

    In the way of personal investing, I just sold out of my Chinese stocks as well as American/Canadian ones, I just shifted all of my retirement fund assets into a GIC fund, and I added to my gold bar holdings during the recent metals market dip. I'm waiting for some sign of a clear market direction for the next couple of months, but so far all I see is speculators and fund managers playing Texas HoldEm, with the Fed chairman dealing from a stacked deck.

    The Bradley Model of course calls for a significant market turn beginning on March 4th. Whether that market turn will really occur remains to be seen. Whether that market turn will be up or down is not specified by the Bradley Model ...

    comments ?

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    Default Re: for you "speculative" investors ... Bradley Model

    looks like I will start investing on March 3
    well, the March 4th Bradley turn date was yesterday, and hopefully Sitri you were able to 'cash in' on the 100+ point rise in the Dow ...




    As I posted earlier, there is really no fundamental reason that the Bradley model should be any more accurate about predicting stock market moves than flipping a coin. However, once again it turned out to be right on the money (literally ! pun intended). Of course it still remains to be seen if the uptrend which 'started' yesterday is really a trend which continues well into next week.

    The next Bradley turn date is 3/29, implying that if the uptrend which began on 3/4 is really an uptrend that the next several weeks should be good for the stock markets.



    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 03-05-2005 at 07:31 AM.

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    Default Re: for you "speculative" investors ... Bradley Model

    Well, three weeks later, it appears that the stock market has been in a more or less continuous decline since the March 4th high. With the next Bradley Model 'turn date' being next monday March 29th, it will be extremely interesting to see whether the market turns up sharply on tuesday, or whether the market falls off the cliff. The curse of the Bradley Model is that it predicts the onset of change, but it very clearly does not predict the direction in which that change will occur (you have to figure that out for yourself).

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