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Thread: World's Biggest Consumer

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    Veteran Member myssi's Avatar
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    Default World's Biggest Consumer

    China has become the world's biggest consumer of everything
    except oil in absolute terms (not per capita) according to a survey
    reported by the BBC. China is the biggest consumer of grain, meat,
    coal and steel.
    China is also well ahead of the US in the consumption of goods such as television sets, refrigerators and mobile phones.... etc.
    Comments?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4272577.stm

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    God/dess Deogol's Avatar
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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    I sure hope our American workers in American companies can build enough of this stuff to take the market... oh wait... seems someone has been left high and dry here...

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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    All I can say is that it's simply amazing what a country's economy can do when it isn't strangled by high taxes, union wages and benefits, trial lawyers, and overly strict environmental laws !

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    Featured Member Destiny's Avatar
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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    A while back I saw part of of show about Wal-Mart. It was funny, they went to some city in China and there was a new Wal-Mart opening up right on the main city square. The funny part was that there was a huge statue of Chairman Mao staring right into the brand spanking new Wal-Mart. Personally, I don't think even China is big enough for both Mao's communist philosophy and western-style consumerism. I predict capitalism will ultimately win. Well, I'm off to the mall.
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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    All I can say is that it's simply amazing what a country's economy can do when it isn't strangled by high taxes, union wages and benefits, trial lawyers, and overly strict environmental laws !


    Or pesky human rights, protection of free speech and religious freedom, and a right to intellectual property!


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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    The wording is awkward so this gives a false impresssion. China is by no means the leading user of these items, they are the leading purchasers of new items like "tv sets, refrigerators and mobile phones", If you do not have one to start off with to use one you have to buy one. All of the items mentioned are durable goods with lifetimes up to 10 years or more. A country with high income will already have them and only need to replace them every 10 years or so. A country where they are new is raising the number of them so they buy a lot of them new. An example is we buy half as many microwaves as we bounght in 1989 because we already have them. Commodites like these go through a phase where almost all purchases are new additions to the stock and them become mostly replacement demand at a lower level of sales.

    With materials they are not just using them themselves (like the 3 Gorges damn) but in refrigerators and microwaves they export.

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    Sitri
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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    Quite some time ago I mentioned this. Their economy is just starting and it is consuming 30% of the worlds concrete. They are now starting to consolidate strategic gas reserves in countries that used to sell to us.

    You can praise their new economy, but in a few years, the world's strained resources will be skyrocketing in price and shortages will abound. I am not a gloom and doom person, but this scares the sh*t out of me.

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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    You can praise their new economy, but in a few years, the world's strained resources will be skyrocketing in price and shortages will abound. I am not a gloom and doom person, but this scares the sh*t out of me.
    I was definitely not philosophically praising the Chinese 'miracle' economy, for the simple reason that much of its success is based on gov't/business corruption, slave labor, a near total disregard for environmental consequences, and a rule of law that is tenuous at best.

    My tongue in cheek comment was really expressing my frustration with the fact that the Chinese economy of today is the direct result of a lack of compromise in America over the past 10-20 years. Had America reached some realistic, practical compromises back then in regard to taxation and spending policies, realistic wage rates, common sense tort reform, and less than draconian environmental regulations, many businesses which have now relocated to China might not have had sufficient motivation to do so.

    Unfortunately, at this point, those refusals to compromise have now left America with 'no loaf' instead of 'half a loaf' (to torture an old proverb). Americans who are now unemployed as a result of the exodus of former American companies to China are now addicted to purchasing low priced Chinese products (they can't afford anything else !).

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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    The U.S. has capitulated a lot to corporations, with many cities offering enormous sweetheart deals to businesses. The bottom line is, well, the bottom line, and companies simply won't be able to produce their products here as cheaply as they can in a country where the average income runs about $1200 a year. We couldn't compete with that if we tried.

    Of course, this is rapidly starting to bite these companies in the ass, as they find that they can't protect their copyrights over there and that they drastically underestimated the hidden costs of trying to establish Western-style factories in a different culture.

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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    There is nothing particularly unusual about emerging industrial economies hitting 10% per year real growth rates or even higher. Many have done so in the past, and before long it always saturates and levels off into some sustainable post-industrialization growth rate. However and obviously, the implications of this stage of development for the world economy (and geopolitical situation) may be profound indeed when the country in question is as large and potentially rich and powerful as China.

    Anyone who paid attention in history class should realize that some country will eventually replace the US as the world's most powerful and influential, in economic and other senses. The (very popular and widespread) predictions of 20 years ago that it would be Japan were clearly wrong and now look a bit foolish, but could it be China? It seems like a real possibility at the moment.

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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    Yeah, I remember a business professor a few years ago making a big point of showing the business card he got from a guy who had a big business in south america. I can't remember the business or the country (that wasn't the point), but the front of the card was written in Spanish, and the back was written in, guess what? Chinese. What does that say about who he was most interested in catering to for his export market? I don't think it's just alot of hot air about the Chinese potentially emerging as the new superpower. I think it's a very strong possibility that I'll see it in my lifetime.

    Quote Originally Posted by pheno View Post
    When you lead a nontraditional life don't try to measure it with traditional milestones.

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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    This is DiscreteDancer...I screwed up and lost my password to other account.

    As someone who works for sustainable development, I support any economy that's growing to make its people happier. On the other hand, it seems growth is defined (in China and most of the US) without the concept of sustainability (the protection of people's rights, environmental quality, and other factors that make continuing or sustaining progress possible). In short, a sustainable society is one whose growth and development doesn't undermine the things needed for perpetual continuation (like resources, ecology, etc.).

    So while I admire the growth, I question its base. And let's not forget that without the consumer engine in America this WOULD NOT BE HAPPENING in China. It is our responsibility as consumers (WalMart is China's 8th largest trading partner, larger than many countries) to have an impact on this growth by contacting the companies, researching the products and voting with our dollar.

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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    Quote Originally Posted by Susan Wayward
    The U.S. has capitulated a lot to corporations, with many cities offering enormous sweetheart deals to businesses. The bottom line is, well, the bottom line, and companies simply won't be able to produce their products here as cheaply as they can in a country where the average income runs about $1200 a year. We couldn't compete with that if we tried.
    We shouldn't try. Let's face it, 99% of americans simply will not work for the pennies a day they make over there and 99% of americans will not pay the high prices it would cost to have our basic consumer goods "made in the U.S.A.". The economic future of our country lies in using our brain power. High-tech industries such as aerospace, computers, bio-tech, those are the areas we should concentrate. Let the chinese do the sewing and other manual labor.
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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    All I can say is that it's simply amazing what a country's economy can do when it isn't strangled by high taxes, union wages and benefits, trial lawyers, and overly strict environmental laws !
    Melanie's gone communist. Mark this day on your calendars.

    OK. Seriously....
    ...my frustration with the fact that the Chinese economy of today is the direct result of a lack of compromise in America over the past 10-20 years. Had America reached some realistic, practical compromises back then in regard to taxation and spending policies, realistic wage rates, common sense tort reform, and less than draconian environmental regulations, many businesses which have now relocated to China might not have had sufficient motivation to do so.
    First of all, the Chinese economy is actually in a dire condition. Unemployment is at highs, povertyand DIS is spreading. See the following:

    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/red/view/

    Believe me. I've spent some time in China and the problems we face in the US are laughable compared to theirs.

    Of course PRC cities appear to be booming, but this image is deceptive. Enormous skyscrapers that dwarf the Empire state building stand nearly empty. Although conditions seemingly are improving at a spectacular rate, China has problems to cope with we cannot fathom. Much of China is still third world, and remains ruled with a communist iron fist, lest everyone flood the cities in search of prosperity. Corruption is far less prevalent than even in the recent past. Environmental regulations are being applied to industries near urban areas, and even the intellectual property rights of US products are being enforced in the capital. You no longer can buy counterfeit DVD's and software in stores in Beijing. (You still can elsewhere in China). Homeless people are everywhere in urban China now, with scores of women and children begging for handouts from American, European, and Japanese business travellers and tourists. Prostitution is everywhere and aggressively sold, as rural families send their daughters into the cities as the sole "providers". Much of the non-hub cities of China have daily power outages, and gas and diesel fuel are strictly rationed, even to businesses.

    It is preposterous to imagine that in a world economy, any lower end factory jobs will remain in the US, where the arrogant momentum of post ww2 manufacturing prosperity is finally coming home to roost.

    I also find it more than a little disturbing, provincial, and myopic to suggest that the Chinese are systematically "stealing" our core industries. Is this not a suggestion that a communist country could beat a free market based economy folly? Not entirely.

    Lets hope their economy continues to grow, lest they end up a country isolated, nuclear, and paranoid like North Korea. (or the us.)
    Last edited by stant; 02-18-2005 at 08:33 AM.

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    Sitri
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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    All I can say is that it's simply amazing what a country's economy can do when it isn't strangled by high taxes, union wages and benefits, trial lawyers, and overly strict environmental laws !
    Melonie,
    Don't misunderstand, I do agree with your statement. However, given more and more countries duplicating the U.S. life style which we have successfully exported over the years, we have created a World Class Consumption Crisis. There are only so many resources to go around and when the U.S. was THE big consumer, we could benefit from our consumption as the rest of the world under-utilized the natural resources relative to us.

    Now that we have successfully "had our way" we may have won the battle but lost the war in continuing or current life style expectations.

    Oil is becoming scarcer as demand will exponentially grow with the industrialization of China and commercialization of eastern europe.

    Our ability to under work, over borrow, and over consume will be pressured by these other countries as they mature.

    No Good Deed Goes Unpunished. I guess we successfully gave out the secret to american consumption.

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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    Quote Originally Posted by stant
    OK. Seriously....

    First of all, the Chinese economy is actually in a dire condition. Unemployment is at highs, povertyand DIS is spreading.
    You must be mistaken, communist countries don't allow unemployment.
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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    Melonie,
    Don't misunderstand, I do agree with your statement. However, given more and more countries duplicating the U.S. life style which we have successfully exported over the years, we have created a World Class Consumption Crisis. There are only so many resources to go around and when the U.S. was THE big consumer, we could benefit from our consumption as the rest of the world under-utilized the natural resources relative to us.

    Now that we have successfully "had our way" we may have won the battle but lost the war in continuing or current life style expectations
    You'll find me in total agreement with you. In fact, I would take it a step farther and say that global 'competition' for the world's resources, led by China and India, will serve as an unwelcome but effective equalizer. As a result, the US and European middle classes are very likely to see their lifestyles decline as they must pay more for basic commodities, plus pay more taxes to subsidize those same basic commodities for the poor.

    The economic future of our country lies in using our brain power. High-tech industries such as aerospace, computers, bio-tech, those are the areas we should concentrate. Let the chinese do the sewing and other manual labor
    Unfortunately, on a brain power basis, it is the Chinese and Indians who are aggressively sending their children through a Master's or Doctorate program at a Western university. At the same time, the American secondary education system is producing fewer and fewer properly prepared college candidates, and the costs of most college tuitions are beginning to price a Master's or Doctorate out of the reach of the middle class (unless like us they're willing to do lap dances to cover those costs LOL).

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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    OK, a different perspective. I'm the General Manager of a small UK company that faces competition from the Chinese for goods made in some of the rarer metals. I've been in this particular field for 25 years, so I've seen the effect of Chinese competition on several companies.

    First point to make is that the Chinese economy is state controlled to a large degree - industry sectors follow instructions given by government. Second point to make is that they do not operate a market economy. Chinese industry often operates at what Western companies would recognise as a loss.

    Third point is that the Chinese government wants rapid growth in the economy and accordingly sponsors exports - particular companies get contributions from government funds to lower the cost of the exported goods.

    This has the effect that you are not on a level playing field - how you you compete against a Chinese company when the government is paying part of the cost of the product you are operating against? I've seen finished metal products coming out of China at the same cost as other Chinese companies sell the raw materials that Western companies need to make those products.

    Basic idea is simple, and I've seen it happen time and time again. Pick a sector of the market and export goods at heavily subsidised prices until much of the Western competition is eliminated. When Western companies are out of business because of the subsidies then raise your prices to take advantage of the lack of competition in the market.

    (Look at the penal import duty put on some goods from China coming into the US - they're in double digits. The aim is to stop at least some of the unfair competition from China.)

    I've no problem with fair competition in the market - but it's impossible to compete against a company having its exports subsidised by the Chinese government.

    Phil W.

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    Veteran Member stant's Avatar
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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    Unfortunately, on a brain power basis, it is the Chinese and Indians who are aggressively sending their children through a Master's or Doctorate program at a Western university. At the same time, the American secondary education system is producing fewer and fewer properly prepared college candidates, and the costs of most college tuitions are beginning to price a Master's or Doctorate out of the reach of the middle class (unless like us they're willing to do lap dances to cover those costs LOL).
    This was a very selfish economic plan for decades. Lure all the best brains here, and seduce them with the bounty of America to stay after they graduate. Sure American students have to compete with the entire world... to get into the the so-called public university grad schools (funded in part with taxpayer $)....but such is the cost of sucking the brain power out of other countries. But when they go back home....god forbid..... And they are now.... not cool.

    Problem is not enough American students are qualified for the best science and tech graduate schools in the US to fill them. Law and Med schools, however, are another story. We got plenty ready to slice and sue.


    First point to make is that the Chinese economy is state controlled to a large degree - industry sectors follow instructions given by government. Second point to make is that they do not operate a market economy. Chinese industry often operates at what Western companies would recognise as a loss.

    Third point is that the Chinese government wants rapid growth in the economy and accordingly sponsors exports - particular companies get contributions from government funds to lower the cost of the exported goods.

    This has the effect that you are not on a level playing field - how you you compete against a Chinese company when the government is paying part of the cost of the product you are operating against?
    Are you saying a planned economy beats a free market? The Chinese think so. And why do they have to play by our rules?

    China has a blend of ecomomies that has no historical example, and uses both free market and central government forces to drive it.

    What I've seen in China is that companies which on the surface appear to be truly free market entities are not. They seem not to be driven by monetary profit, but by sustainable employment figures. The number of jobs created by a company is analagous to profit for an American company and leads to promotion, contracts, perks and prestige for the executives.

    Is this "state controlled"? Yes and no.

    I've no problem with fair competition in the market - but it's impossible to compete against a company having its exports subsidised by the Chinese government.
    Government subsidies of industry seems unfair in a free market, but shouldn't the purely free market driven entities always win in the end? And in a purely centralized economy, the gov owns and pays for everything. One big ass pot of money. But we well know this is a loser. So who's to say what's fair? Frankly it's hard to fathom how anyone's getting rich by selling us DVD players cheap enough to include with happy meals. They are because profit for practical purposes is defined differently in China.

    I don't dissagree with you Phil about targeted industries. But perhaps our view of a purely free market is not in fact the winning economic model for everyone. Perhaps the USG should be talking to the far east countries about the future. Seems the USG has other priorities at the moment.

    Edit: USG and UKG are pretty synonymous here.
    Last edited by stant; 02-18-2005 at 01:11 PM.

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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    Quote Originally Posted by stant
    China has a blend of ecomomies that has no historical example, and uses both free market and central government forces to drive it.
    Imo, the above quote is both accurate and incredibly important. It is not at all obvious if they will succeed (at least not to me), but the Chinese seem to be developing (or maybe "searching for" would be more apt) a significantly new way of doing business, of running a national industrial economy. Given China's history (going back to ancient times), I would not bet against them coming up with something important and new. And, of course, aside from the quasi-religious beliefs of some, there is no absolute law of nature that says a "free market" approach is the best or most effective of all possible systems.

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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    I just read about Nike's overhaul of its contract overseas plants..here's how it worked for them"

    Contractors sell shoes to Nike at $3
    Contractors pay worker $1.40/day (makes about 200 shoes in that day)
    Contractors use cheapest materials possible, have no environmental or safety rules to live by, etc
    Nike sells shoes for $50, doing only marketing and development

    Profit is the difference between $600 (sales to Nike) and $1.40 (pay to worker) and setup costs. Seems easy to draw a profit margin there...and this is China's advantage. As a nation, we shouldn't interfere with another nation's soverignty, but I see no reason why we have to work with countries that don't agree woth our way of doing things. If they want our business, "these" (good wages, environmental protection, safety, etc) are the rules to live by. No one forces them to do it, it's just part of the transaction.

    In your club, no one forces the customers to be nice, tip well, etc...but they don't get service if they are asses (or shouldn't...if she's strong enough). No one forces the girl to be friendly, but they don't get tips if they don't - neither reduces the person's independence to act as they want...it just outlines consequences and benefits for different actions

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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    I agree with most of discretedancer's post. If you want to use your purchasing power to try and change the world by only buying your stuff from countries with wages you deem acceptable go for it.

    One thing I will point out to those that complain about companies only paying workers $1.40 a day. They don't seem to have any trouble filling those jobs at that wage. So in many countries a $1.40 a day is a decent wage. Now, if we are talking about slave labor, which has been alleged before against China, that is different. But that is a human rights issue, not an economic issue.
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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    Quote Originally Posted by discretedancer
    I just read about Nike's overhaul of its contract overseas plants..here's how it worked for them"

    Contractors sell shoes to Nike at $3
    Contractors pay worker $1.40/day (makes about 200 shoes in that day)
    Contractors use cheapest materials possible, have no environmental or safety rules to live by, etc
    Nike sells shoes for $50, doing only marketing and development

    Profit is the difference between $600 (sales to Nike) and $1.40 (pay to worker) and setup costs. Seems easy to draw a profit margin there...and this is China's advantage.


    THis example is deceptively simple. Far too many facts are omitted to be able to understand who pockets what and when.

    A popular and emerging business model for an American/PRC manufacturing company is a certain type of joint venture. In practical terms, what happens is a Chinese businessman moves to the US, starts a company -- a joint venture -- and partners with established Chinese and American companies, keeping 51% of ownership ostensibly "PRC" based. He may, in fact own pieces of both sides....

    A JV, but Chinese owned company such as this could actually be making its profits in US$, much of which stays in the US and gets recycled again by purchasing some other Chinese made products. Meanwhile, this PRC ex-pat CEO makes sure all the right palms are greased and a huge number of Chinese people are employed back home. Variations on this theme are innumerable. Lots of so-called middle men are sucking up this profit margin, but the Chinese gov's goal remains not the $ per se, but the number of people employed. The Chinese ex-pats goal can be both.

    Characterizing this in a typical pigeonholing fashion is obviously flawed, yet still regularly done in the press.

    As a nation, we shouldn't interfere with another nation's soverignty, but I see no reason why we have to work with countries that don't agree woth our way of doing things. If they want our business, "these" (good wages, environmental protection, safety, etc) are the rules to live by. No one forces them to do it, it's just part of the transaction.
    What you are suggesting essentially is that the USG regulate on an individual basis which PRC companies are alowed to do business in the US, based on compliance with standards we set for them. American businesses purchasing from the Chinese are then forced to live with these restrictions. What about about fundamentally "assembled" products, such as a PC? Should we then identify the source manufacturer of each component apply regulations to approve product components?

    Currently, this sort of issue is theoretically negotiated at a diplomatic level not business level, with each side responsible for regulating its own industries. Of course this actually requires that the USG speak to the Chinese and other far east countries, a significant problem for an administration seemingly fueled by crude oil and blood only.

    In your club, no one forces the customers to be nice, tip well, etc...but they don't get service if they are asses (or shouldn't...if she's strong enough). No one forces the girl to be friendly, but they don't get tips if they don't - neither reduces the person's independence to act as they want...it just outlines consequences and benefits for different actions
    When buying a TV at Walmart, or Nikes at Foot Locker, the envirnmental compliance, wages, working conditions, etc. in China is completely invisible to the consumer. Most people honestly don't care, and given the choice, would buy the shoes/TV at a greater discount even if it meant harsher working conditions for foreign workers. The salesperson's behavior is relevant, as in your example, but not the factory slave driver's, except to lower the cost. Out of sight, out of mind.

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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    "Should we then identify the source manufacturer of each component apply regulations to approve product components? "
    In a word, yes. If not, we're sharing in the responsibility for the actions of "upstream" suppliers.

    "Out of sight, out of mind." Unfortunately true, but not right. Do you suggest that if the dancers in the club were old-style industrial revolution employees (company owned housing, basically slave conditions) that we shouldn't care, simply because it's "out of sight" for the time we're in the club

    Of course, since 70% of WalMart employees can't afford health care and are on public assistance, and yet people still shop there...maybe it's human nature to ignore the facts when the image is more attractive

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    Default Re: World's Biggest Consumer

    "Currently, this sort of issue is theoretically negotiated at a diplomatic level not business level, with each side responsible for regulating its own industries. "
    Agreed. But is that the way it should be? Do we really want to leave all of our decisions up to the government? I somehow doubt people in this industry would rather that.

    Something else to consider:
    The statement that "Most people honestly don't care, and given the choice, would buy the shoes/TV at a greater discount even if it meant harsher working conditions for foreign workers. " should be "I really don't care...." - generalizing that "they" don't care and then not acting is simply passing the buck. If YOU care how the people, communities and places where your products are made are treated, then YOU should act.

    Finally, from a national security issue, should we really be so callous about the communities around teh world in which we do business? The current state of disregard for human rights, safety and environmental quality will eventually lead (or maybe it has led) to people in these regions seeing America as the enemy. Last thing we need is more enemies

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