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Thread: Arizona Housing Market

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    Default Arizona Housing Market

    while these statistics are usually not well organized in one chart for comparison, Chris Fox did so himself for his home state of Arizona



    obvious conclusions

    - the rental market for single family houses is stable, indicating that people are not moving from renting to owning or from owning to renting

    - in the past 2 months, the total number of properties put on the market has increased by some 62% or 6,400 total new properties of all types

    - most additional properties put on the market were single family houses, which have increased by some 65% in the past 2 months i.e. 5,500 new properties

    - the number of unsold houses on the Arizona market increased by 20% in the last month alone

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    Featured Member Lola Lee's Avatar
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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    I hope and pray everyday for the housing boom in Arizona to go bust. I moved here three years ago when the average suburbian house in the Valley was around $150k. Now it's WELL over $200k. I know people that have made over $100k in equity in the past year from their house. Well, good for them but I missed out. Now, I can't afford anything w/o moving to the sticks and the longer I keep waiting, the worse it gets. Damn California investors! Pooh!




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  3. #3
    madmaxine
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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    ^ Hear hear. In rural NorCal, we call our new neighbors "BAT"s- Bay Area Transplants. We are plagued by a swarm of BATs.

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    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    Melonie,
    The report showed 14032 single family homes for sale. According to the Census Bureau there were 2,328,720 units in 2002 and 22.1% were in multi-family units so 1.814 million were single family. The numbers which appal this guy sugest 0.77% of the housing stock is for sale, or about 1 in 125 units.

    He also does not tell you Arizona is one of the fastest growing state and is estimated to have grown 8.8% from 4/1/2000 to 7/1/2003 or just under 3% per year. If the people moving in own housing like the already their residents do the turnover if every house was on the market for three months would be that same 3% (.77%*4=3.09%) that leaves almost no room for anyone to move in the entire friggin state of Arizona except newcomers.

    The new listing numbers are not high, the early year numbers were extraordinarily low. THE NAR (NAtional Association of realtors) existing home sales numbers came out today. Sales were the second highest ever and single-family sales of 6.35 million (annualized) missed the all-time June peak by a paltry 40,000 annualized or about 3,000 units at a simple monthly rate spead out over the entire country. the months supply of homes for sale did rise, but matched the 2002 yearly average of homes-for-sale/sales. houses getting finished in February are as scarce as hens' teeth

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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    One could also take the NAR report at face value ...



    "WASHINGTON — U.S. home sales are close to peaking but should hold historically high levels into next year, the National Association of Realtors' top economist said Tuesday.

    Chief Economist David Lereah, in a monthly forecast, nudged his estimates higher for sales of previously owned and new homes in 2005.

    He said existing home sales (search) should rise 2.9 percent to 6.98 million this year, up from his previous forecast of 6.97 million and higher than the 2004 record of 6.78 million.

    Sales of new homes should climb 4.8 percent to 1.26 million in 2005, which also would be a record high, the Realtors said.

    Housing, now in a boom of more than four years, has defied economists' expectations for a slowdown this year as long-term mortgage rates (search) remain stubbornly low. That has led economists over the past two months to boost their 2005 targets and forecast another record year for sales and construction.

    But fixed 30-year mortgage rates have begun to trend higher over the past five weeks, according to mortgage finance company Freddie Mac (FRE). Industry analysts also have begun to point to anecdotal evidence of slowing sales and rising inventory of homes available for sale in some of the priciest areas."(snip)

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Again it would appear that the actual market price of homes doesn't really matter much in the minds of would-be buyers, and the future resale price projections for homes doesn't matter much either. All that seems to matter is that a prospective buyer can find a lender who is willing to write a mortgage for them with a monthly payment amount that they can afford to make (at the moment). With some 30% of new mortgages being ARM's, with a clear FED trend of rising interest rates, with high paying jobs being outsourced or chopped, and with tighter bankruptcy laws about to take effect, there is an ever increasing 'house of cards' feeling about the single family home market - particularly so in those cities where the average home price to average net income ratio is already ridiculously high. NAR's own chief economist even seems to be warning of this between the lines of his pro-industry group projection.

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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    have another look now that the September statistics are in ...



    - the number of unsold single family homes on the Arizona housing market increased by almost another 30% in September vs August.
    - the number of additional single family homes being put on the market in September nearly equals the number of additional homes put up for sale in July and August combined.

  7. #7
    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    Whooptedoo,
    .80% of the single-family homes in Arizona are for sale.
    Melonie,

    What percentage of the homes for sale have not even been
    started yet and are nothing more than blueprints? Nationally it is over 22% of all new homes for sale! They are lots for sale.
    http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html
    in the excel version take cells h30/g30 on table 3
    57% are under construction, but not done yet
    Cell i30/g30--- Guess what, that leaves only 21% of new homes for sale in move-in condition or 100,000 new homes for sale in the entire country and they sold 106,000 last month (in a soft month by recent standards) alone.

    Remember the first rule of arithmetic, the closer the starting point is to zero the larger the percentage change. x/.00000001 approaches infinity.
    Again all from table3

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    Banned Melonie's Avatar
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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    .80% of the single-family homes in Arizona are for sale.
    Technically speaking, the base numbers do not include the total number of homes entering the Arizona real estate market, just those homes that enter the market but do not sell quickly thus remaining on the market. Therefore a more correct observation would be that .80% of the single-family homes in Arizona have an anxious seller but no buyer - which conveys a significantly different implication than your comment. In point of fact 2% of the single-family homes in Arizona could have been up for sale, with 1.2% of the single-family homes finding buyers and the remaining 0.8% not finding buyers.

    My point here was not to dwell on numbers, but to point out the trend ... which clearly indicates that the number of unsold homes on the Arizona housing market is increasing ... and increasing exponentially.

    From a common sense economic standpoint, anxious sellers with no buyers are going to do one of two things. They are either going to hold out on selling price causing the number of unsold homes on the Arizona housing market to continue to increase, or they are going to drop the selling price to move the house. At the moment it would appear that a 'waiting game' is underway, with anxious sellers still hoping/dreaming that they can eventually sell their house at an 'inflated' market price, while buyers hang back in hopes that sellers will eventually be forced to drop their asking price in order to get out from under their mortgage payments and move the property. With interest rates and therefore ARM monthly payments on the rise, and with a steadily increasing inventory of unsold Arizona single-family houses, I'm betting that the buyers will win the 'waiting game' ... and very soon !
    Last edited by Melonie; 10-01-2005 at 07:14 AM.

  9. #9
    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    So you do not like numbers and all sellers are anxious. Guess what they aint so anxious. Let us look at some specific numbers from the Arizona University Real Estate folks.
    http://www.east.asu.edu/arec/marketu...ly%20Sales.xls
    Sorry it is in Excel.
    In greater Phoenix there were 41,550 homes sold in Q2 30,705 were existing and 10K were new. Remember this is just Phoenix so about 10K per month were sold- 14,690 listings (some new some existing) is only a month and a half of sales in Phoenix of the existing only.
    We will excuse you for the new because in a realestate market that strong, what builder is gonna pop to get an MLS on a 130K home.

    A friggin month and a half's sales for one area in the MLS listing for the entire friggin state? A median of 3 months on the market is entirely normal and they are less than half that?

    And gues what--it gets better because the second quarter is not the seasonal strong point for sales. Q3 or q4 are. Guess another one--sales in q2 were almost 3 times 1995 in the same quarter.

    I do not believe the Arizona Real Estate Center has an ax to grind, unlike Mr Fox

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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    hmmm ... another look at the Arizona housing situation 2 months down the road from when the thread started. It would appear that 'fear' is starting to set in, based on the addition of 50+ houses per DAY to the november real estate single family home listings 'inventory'.

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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    also, if anyone is looking for incontrovertable proof that the real estate market has topped out and is likely to fall, one need look no farther than the risk premiums now associated with the underlying 'mortgage backed securities' market (i.e. packaged mortgages resold in the form of bonds)

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    Featured Member scorpio's Avatar
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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    there goes Mel, fear-mongering again. (me thinks she has a secret investment in a trailor manufacturer)

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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    no. but I'm seriously considering loading up on PMI / MTG put options, as these 'equity shortfall' mortgage insurers are likely to be the first to take a pounding when real estate values start dropping and shaky mortgages start going into default !

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    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    The only aspect of Scops response that I diagree with is that "methinks" is one word, not two.The blogger Melonie thinks is good is a piker when he thinks MLS listings will go to 20,000, I will do him one better--IT Ought to go to 27-30K(minimum), and the sooner the better.

    Melonie also did not make reference to the sales statisitcs for the metro Phoenix area. The ASU site does not have the data yet, but the Arizona Statesman quotes number that sales have continue to average 10K per month for what they call "used homes" at http://www.azcentral.com/news/articl...ngprice11.html#
    Probably because some journalism school drop out thought "exisiting"="used (when it does not)

    For the market to come back into whack the time-to-sale should rise close to 3 months from less than 2, especially since the homes-listed include a lot of phantom homes not even started yet.

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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    Trailer related REITs have been relatively solid performers for at least the last 10-15 years.

    I believe the real estate market will begin a correction within a year. Houston data if anyone cares: http://www.har.com/rs_houston_market.htm

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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    I would also throw out there that a major pile of distressed/delinquent mortgages are still being 'swept under the rug' by the so-called disaster relief mortgage deferment policies put into effect by many mortgage lenders in the aftermath of hurricane Katrina. Ostensibly these mortgage deferment policies are intended to cut mortgage holders a break, by postponing mortgage payment due dates, by postponing negative credit reporting etc. by 2-3 months.

    Behind the facade, it is argued in some business circles that the true intent of these mortgage deferment policies is to allow the lending institutions to 'push' the necessity of reporting delinquent mortgages they are holding into the 2006 fiscal year, thus obscuring the fact that some mortgage lenders are actually on shaky ground (i.e. cumulatively facing a potential 1,000,000+ pending mortgage defaults). Not having to account for these delinquent mortgages on their 2005 books therefore helps the stock price / bond rating / credibility of the mortgage lending institutions involved.

    However, the mortgage deferment policies also have the effect of 'pushing' the necessity of foreclosures / auctions of the delinquent mortgage properties into the 2006 fiscal year as well. This has arguably kept some 1,000,000+ properties off the real estate market in late 2005, which under normal conditions would already have started appearing on the market for 'forced' sale, thus postponing a drop in real estate prices. But once the deferment period runs out, and the wheels of foreclosure start to turn, a good number of these houses WILL wind up being put on the market / auction block in the first months of 2006.

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    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    All of this despite the fact that mortgage delinquencies are LOWER than last year--http://www.mortgagebankers.org/marketdata/index.cfm?STRING=http://www.mortgagebankers.org/news/2005/pr0915.html
    The SA delinquencies for adjustable rate (ARM) and fixed rate (FRM) products are generally down from last year and last quarter. Over the year, the SA delinquency rate for prime ARM products is down 7 basis points (from 2.26 percent to 2.19 percent), while the percentage among prime FRM products decreased 9 basis points (from 2.11 percent to 2.02 percent). Since the second quarter of 2004, the SA delinquency rate for subprime ARM products has decreased 8 basis points (from 10.12 percent to 10.04 percent), while the rate for subprime FRM products dropped 72 basis points (from 9.78 percent to 9.06 percent).
    From Mortgage Bankers' Assoc.

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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    Monty - I think based on what Mel said it's not 'despite' anything, you are almost agreeing with her unless you have some reason for the decline.

    Mel - As far as delaying them hitting the books, the market is not that gullible. Stats like that are usually inlcuded in its reporting. I would think there are serious legal consequences these day

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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    Mel - As far as delaying them hitting the books, the market is not that gullible. Stats like that are usually inlcuded in its reporting. I would think there are serious legal consequences these day
    legally speaking, a mortgage which has been granted a 3 month disaster relief grace period during which no monthly payments are necessary CANNOT be considered delinquent if no mortgage payments are made during those 3 months. Therefore those uber-shaky mortgages among those granted a disaster relief grace period do not appear in the 4th quarter 2005 delinquency statistics (which probably explains why the reported delinquency rate decreased slightly).

    By the same logic, financial institutions do not have to account for them as being delinquent on the 4th quarter books, and can still list them as 'performing' loans, despite the fact that no mortgage payments have been received since last August ! In the absence of the 3 month disaster relief grace period, those uber-shaky mortgages would already show up as being 3 months in arrears, obligating the financial institutions to list them as 'non-performing' loans and to initiate collection / foreclosure procedures.

    But because of the grace period, which 'reset' the delinquency clock, it will not be until next February that the uber-shaky mortgages will actually be considered 3 months in arrears. It will not be until next February that the financial institutions must change the status of these mortgages from 'performing' to 'non-performing', and begin collection / foreclosure procedures. It will not be until next March that foreclosed homes will begin to hit the real estate market, and that financial institutions must account for their 'losses'.

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    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    The mortgage banker data was for August, 99.99% before Katrina could have done squat to anything. Outside of NOLA, things are close to back to normal. Sure homes were destroyed, they always are, but they are also 99.5% insured and the lenders always cut homeowenrs slack until the insurance money comes in because the alternative is to try to foreclose on a vacant lot, have to writeoff a shitlot of bad debts, be hated even more, and villified in the press/state government (which gives then licenses and bankrolls state/local bonds, has the checking account for the local schools and cities, as well as being the biggest local employer in 95% of cities).

    PS if you have a disaster, the check goes to you AND the lien holder, just as if you have an accident and there is a auto loan outstanding.

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    Featured Member scorpio's Avatar
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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    the reason mant mortgage lenders are in trouble has zero to do with disasters. It is because they have not raised rates as fast as the market is rising, trying to keep the volume up. As a result, profit margins have fallen from over 2% to around .25%

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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    yes, and some mortgage lenders are finding 'creative' ways to temporarily restore their profit margins ....

    (snip)"According to CFC October 2005 Operational Results, it seems that Countrywide Financial is one of the purveyors of the yet still looser bank lending practices that the regulators are talking about. Here are the highlights:

    * Adjustable-rate loan fundings for the month were $23 billion, up 42 percent from October 2004. Year-to-date adjustable-rate fundings totaled $214 billion.
    * Nonprime loan fundings totaled $3.9 billion in October, which compares to $3.3 billion for the same period last year. Year-to-date nonprime fundings were $36 billion.
    * Pay-option fundings for the month were $8.5 billion, as compared to $3.4 billion in October 2004.
    * Interest-only loan volume was $8.9 billion for the month of October 2005, which compares to $5.9 billion, for the same period a year ago.

    The most amazing of those statistics is the rampant increase of "pay-option loans" smack in the face of flattening or declining home prices and a FED that seems bound and determined to break the housing bubble by hiking interest rates.

    The LA Times recently discussed The hidden perils of pay-option loans. Let's take a look.

    Borrowers with dangerous adjustable rate mortgages that give them the option of paying just about any way they like may find the loans even more perilous - and more expensive - than they ever imagined.

    For starters, borrowers may find that as the rates on their mortgages adjust, they could be paying as many as three or four percentage points more than they would had they chosen a different type of adjustable mortgage.

    Perhaps even worse, once borrowers realize they acted unwisely, they may not be able to get out of their loans without paying a hefty penalty. Even if you sell your house, you could be required to pay a prepayment fee totaling six months' interest to terminate the mortgage.

    In exchange for all this, the broker who put his client in this precarious position is getting paid three times as much as he would had he placed the borrower in a more consumer-friendly adjustable mortgage.

    Typically, lenders who actually fund the mortgage pay brokers a half-point - 0.5% of the loan balance - when they bring in borrowers who want a so-called payment-option ARM. But if the loan carries a prepayment penalty, they'll pay the broker a larger incentive.

    These kinds of extreme charges are not attached to any mortgage other than pay-option ARMs, a loan that allows the borrower to choose from four different payment options each month.

    Borrowers can pay the absolute minimum as calculated by a complicated formula. They can make an interest-only payment based on the fully indexed rate but with nothing going toward the outstanding balance. Or they can make a full interest and principal payment based on either a 15- or 30-year payment schedule.

    Borrowers are drawn to pay-option ARMs because of their 1% start rate. But what they often don't realize - and sometimes aren't being told - is that while their payment doesn't change for a year, the rate starts adjusting after the first 30 days.

    Of course, with these loans, the payment doesn't change until after 12 months. But because the rate moves on a monthly basis, the result is what's known as "negative amortization." That means that whatever the difference between what you pay and what you owe is added to the loan balance.

    For pushing such an unfriendly loan on uninformed borrowers, mortgage brokers are paid handsomely, as are loan reps who work for lenders themselves.

    "The kind of stuff going on out there is wrong," says Mitch Ohlbaum, a West Hollywood mortgage broker. "I think these loans work well when explained and priced properly. The problem is that no one is educating borrowers on what they are getting into."

    A regular person with a regular job will fall behind very quickly if he makes interest-only payments. "People who know what they make each month have no business in a loan like this. They will get demolished."(snip)

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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    You wouldn't like Southern Utah then, the price of a 130,000 home is worh about 250 or more now. My home was appraised at 300,000 eleven months ago and I just had it appraised again at 490,000. That's good and bad news I guess. Doesn't do me any good since if I sell, it will cost me more to buy another home so I just get to pay more in property tax.

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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    you know the market is in trouble when they start rolling out 'blue light specials' ...



    (gift card for $25,000 off the 'regular' new home price before the new year LOL)

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 12-20-2005 at 11:35 AM.

  25. #25
    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
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    Default Re: Arizona Housing Market

    One knows they are dealing with a shady outfit when the small print on offers is not legible. Centex has given guidance for the next fiscal year of roughly a 13% increase in profits--somehting that no builder can honestly guide about--since it depends on a lot of shit they cannot predict. I strongly suspect that this is a marketing scheme to try to boost 4th quarter earnings at all costs, even reduced margins to make the top line look good.

    BTW 25k on 400-600k homes is not that much of a price concession since the gross margin of the company is over 13% or 2.5 times the incentive on a 500k home. this is like putting a year-end incentive on a suv in 1999 to get "best-selling" crown. This sort of crap is just going back to naormal in real estate.

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