Results 1 to 20 of 20

Thread: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

  1. #1
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    Gold passed $500 per ounce



    My guess is that the rising trend in gold is due at least in part to the entire world seeing 'inflation' in energy and commodity prices. IMHO as long as the demand for energy and commodities keeps growing (i.e. China, India) this trend cannot turn around, and more investors will put their dollars/yen/yuan into gold to avoid loss in purchasing power of their currency.

    An issue getting quite a bit of attention in 'professional' investor circles is missing 'petrodollars'. During the major increase in oil prices circa 1980, the major oil exporters in the middle east were suddenly awash in US dollars received from the sale of oil at high prices. At that time, these 'petrodollars' wound up coming back to the USA in the form of US stock and bond purchases by middle eastern investors. However, THIS time around, the middle east has its own stock and bond markets to invest in, which have skyrocketed over the past few months, but which are becoming 'saturated' with too many 'petrodollars' chasing too few investment options. With a degree of political animosity toward the USA, some middle eastern investors are reluctant to turn right around and reinvest their 'petrodollars' back into the USA. Some middle eastern investors are therefore looking towards another 'secure' option to invest their 'petrodollars' in = gold.
    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 11-29-2005 at 03:17 PM.

  2. #2
    Featured Member lunchbox's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2005
    Location
    falling from grace
    Posts
    1,943
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 8 Times in 6 Posts

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    coulda, woulda, shoulda. Just not my style. Trying to profit on gold is to much like a Ponzi scheme to me. Give me fundamentals and value. I'd rather invest in FCOJ

  3. #3
    mermaidnz
    Guest

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    i was waiting for you to post about this Melonie ive kept an eye on the gold prices for over a year now after reading your gold bullion investing advice ages ago here.funnily enough- in the last week if been researching into buying silver and platnium ,and stocks in mining companies. the price has been creeping up for a while now....i should got into the market back when you first brought it to our attention.

    never to late to start tho, better to invest a lil then invest nothing!

  4. #4
    God/dess FBR's Avatar
    Joined
    May 2003
    Posts
    8,351
    Thanks
    85
    Thanked 342 Times in 244 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Mellow

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    I have a bag full of kruggerands I bought a long time ago. I dont even remember what I paid for them without going back and checking. I know it was back in the 80's sometime. Hopefully they have increased in value.

    FBR
    Once again I have embraced my addiction and have put off the moral dilemma to another day.

  5. #5
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    Give me fundamentals and value. I'd rather invest in FCOJ
    Hmmm ... FCOJ 'fundamentals' this year boil down to which path the next hurricane will take re Florida's orange groves, how far south the next Canadian clipper will stretch, how many illegal alien farm workers will be available in California at harvest time, and how many 'naked puts' Chinese options traders might have sold on FCOJ !

  6. #6
    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    2,103
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 9 Times in 5 Posts

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    I guess no one also noticed this little time-bomb in the World Gold Council press release of Nov 17.



    Gold supply for Q3 2005 was around one fifth higher compared to the same period in 2004. All categories of supply were higher than a year earlier...

    http://www.gold.org/pr_archive/pdf/G...leaseFINAL.pdf

    A fifth is 20%!!!! Looks like we are heading back to $270/oz soon, or lower. What would happen to the price of oil if supply increased 20%? $10/bbl oil!

    And FBR--you are probably still under water after 20 years--and in nominal terms too. In purchasing power you have lost close to 30% even if you broke even. You would have done better with the worst passbook savings account in the country!

  7. #7
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    Monty, your 20% increase in Q3 2005 gold supplies is more than offset by even greater increases in gold demand ... primarily from Asian retail/jewelry investors and in the establishment of Gold ETF's. The worldwide supply vs demand summary in the same report shows that Q3 net barely made a dent in the Q2 supply deficit carried forward. This report also considers the 'sovereign' or 'hedge' gold market supply and demand as if they actually produced new gold- how much is really paper transfers versus how much is real gold ?

  8. #8
    Featured Member lunchbox's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2005
    Location
    falling from grace
    Posts
    1,943
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 8 Times in 6 Posts

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    Quote Originally Posted by FBR
    I have a bag full of kruggerands I bought a long time ago.
    I supposedly inherited some of these 15 years ago, and still haven't seen them. Are they legal right now or not?

  9. #9
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    Kruggies are absolutely legal, and weigh one ounce of gold each (meaning they're worth right around $500 per coin right now)! IMHO Kruggies are the second best way to invest in gold, as they have the lowest 'spread' of any 1oz gold offering except bars.

  10. #10
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    I also noticed that somebody asked my opinion about 'paper gold' investments, i.e. gold 'pool' accounts, gold ETF's etc. Again I'm not offering investment advice to anybody, but it seems to me that one of the major virtues of gold/silver are that they are a store of value which you can hold in your hand ... whereas 'paper gold' investments are essentially no different than stock or bond certificates or green paper with a dead president's picture on it, i.e. worth nothing in and of itself and totally dependent on somebody else's promises being kept in order for it to be worth something. If your purpose is purely to seek short term profits, then you're actually better off buying gold/silver mining company stocks than 'paper gold'.

  11. #11
    God/dess FBR's Avatar
    Joined
    May 2003
    Posts
    8,351
    Thanks
    85
    Thanked 342 Times in 244 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Mellow

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    Quote Originally Posted by montythegeek
    And FBR--you are probably still under water after 20 years--and in nominal terms too. In purchasing power you have lost close to 30% even if you broke even. You would have done better with the worst passbook savings account in the country![/size]
    Monty, back in the early 80's I was convinced we were heading into an era of horrible inflation even worse than the stagflation of the 70's and was convinced that owning gold coins was a hedge against that. I bought the K's along with a lot of junk silver US coins too (in retrospect numismatic would have made more sense). I bet wrong obviously. I wound up selling the junk silver at a loss 7 or 8 years ago.

    I agree, in terms of purchasing power, a shitty passbook account would have at least made me a few percent.

    FBR
    Once again I have embraced my addiction and have put off the moral dilemma to another day.

  12. #12
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    I bought the K's along with a lot of junk silver US coins too (in retrospect numismatic would have made more sense). I bet wrong obviously. I wound up selling the junk silver at a loss 7 or 8 years ago.

    I agree, in terms of purchasing power, a shitty passbook account would have at least made me a few percent.
    The exact same point could be made by people who held onto tech stocks past 1999, or people who held onto bonds past 2003, or people who are holding on to spec real estate right now. Every investment goes in cycles, there's a 'right' time to get in, and there's a 'right' time to get out. 2005 has been the year for 'commodities', gold included.

  13. #13
    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    2,103
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 9 Times in 5 Posts

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    Quote Originally Posted by FBR
    Monty, back in the early 80's I was convinced we were heading into an era of horrible inflation even worse than the stagflation of the 70's and was convinced that owning gold coins was a hedge against that. I bought the K's along with a lot of junk silver US coins too (in retrospect numismatic would have made more sense). I bet wrong obviously. I wound up selling the junk silver at a loss 7 or 8 years ago.

    I agree, in terms of purchasing power, a shitty passbook account would have at least made me a few percent.

    FBR
    Such is the reason inflation is bad--it makes people do things which later are foolish out of fear. That is the essence of why I think buyinggold now is a bad idea--it is getting in on a bubble late in the game.

    This is the same as Melonie's example of 1999 tech stocks. Chasing a bubble is a bad idea--doing it late is foolish. The bond market is saying inflation is cooling and November CPI is going to FALL bigtime because of gasoline and fuel oil declines. Gold is saying it is going higher. The bond market always wins these debates since it is 100+ times the size of gold and less prone to manipulation.

    Mel, Same report- jewelry demand up 2% in volume. EFT setup is a one time event like the storms and oil supply--when the add stops, demand reverts to former levels, then where does the supply created by the price go--back into price in the opposite direction. Gold was a good investment idea 2 years ago and will be again--just as euros were a good idea 2,5 years ago and will be again.

    Buy and hold in many stocks(not all, say P&g or Kraft, or GE) can work. It is an almost guaranteed loser in a sterile asset like gold. You have to treat a gold investment like a bond investment in a slmost bankrupt company--watch it like a hawk and bail before the other guy. Never try to defend a proposition or assumption going bad from fear or you lose your shirt.

  14. #14
    Featured Member lunchbox's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2005
    Location
    falling from grace
    Posts
    1,943
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 8 Times in 6 Posts

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    I ran out of the euro's bought at ~.88 over a year ago, good while it lasted

  15. #15
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    if you bought Euros at $0.88, it was a lot farther back than one year ago. I believe I paid $0.89 per Euro about five years ago, and got 'forced out' of my Swiss Bank Account at $1.24 per Euro when the Patriot Act fallout finally took effect,

    Just for the record, I never advocated getting into Gold as a 'buy and hold forever' strategy. However, in my strictly personal and not to be construed as financial advice opinion, gold has quite a bit of upside still remaining in the latest 'cycle'.

    As to 'reading' the current point in the 'cycle', hedging action by the major gold mining companies (not the wildcat juniors, but heavy players like Newmont and Barrick) certainly tends to indicate that the major companies are looking for gold to go higher from here.

  16. #16
    Veteran Member rain's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2005
    Location
    portland, oregon
    Posts
    206
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    Wow, so after the Patriot Act took effect you had to give up on your swiss bank account????? That sucks..
    There is no salvation in becoming adapted to a world which is crazy.
    Henry Miller

  17. #17
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    Quote Originally Posted by rain
    Wow, so after the Patriot Act took effect you had to give up on your swiss bank account????? That sucks..
    Actually it was a problem of identity verification ... If I had been able to personally travel to Switzerland and present my American ID to the Swiss bank, I could have kept the account ! After the Patriot Act and the Terrorist Anti-Money Laundering Treaty went into effect, banks in all of the countries that signed the treaty required all account holders to prove that they really were who they said they were. Prior to that time, you could open an account via the internet without having to show up in person.

  18. #18
    Featured Member lunchbox's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2005
    Location
    falling from grace
    Posts
    1,943
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 8 Times in 6 Posts

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    if you bought Euros at $0.88, it was a lot farther back than one year ago. I believe I paid $0.89 per Euro about five years ago, and got 'forced out' of my Swiss Bank Account at $1.24 per Euro when the Patriot Act fallout finally took effect,
    I just ran out of them a year ago, I didn't say when I bought them. I was trying to avoid that interpretation

  19. #19
    Featured Member lunchbox's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2005
    Location
    falling from grace
    Posts
    1,943
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 8 Times in 6 Posts

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    Actually it was a problem of identity verification ... If I had been able to personally travel to Switzerland and present my American ID to the Swiss bank, I could have kept the account ! After the Patriot Act and the Terrorist Anti-Money Laundering Treaty went into effect, banks in all of the countries that signed the treaty required all account holders to prove that they really were who they said they were. Prior to that time, you could open an account via the internet without having to show up in person.
    If you discussed this with a Swiss attorney, never hire him again.

  20. #20
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: ahem, I don't know if anybody has noticed, but ...

    If you discussed this with a Swiss attorney, never hire him again
    There were some other options open besides physically showing up at the Swiss Bank to prove my identity, but they all cost more money than I was willing to spend at the time. I had figured that it was a smarter play to take a Bahamas/Caymans vacation and show up in person to open an account at an island bank instead.


    Back to the matter at hand, gold set a new 'record' of a different kind today. The price of gold was up in terms of every major currency in the world ( see chart at bottom of ). This is purportedly an important development, since it confirms that gold is performing like a 'currency' in and of itself ...

    "Russell gave his overall view earlier this week:

    "Gold has entered a new phase. This phase is characterized by gold separating itself from all paper currencies including the dollar. It's clear that something has changed -- that gold is now being accepted by sophisticated investors, not as a speculation, but as an alternative currency. Thus, over recent weeks while the dollar was strong, gold has continued to climb. Such action would have been considered almost impossible even a few months ago.

    "Gold is now being accepted as the fourth currency along with the dollar, the euro and the yen. But there is a difference. Gold is also being recognized as the tangible currency and the ONLY SAFE currency. That gold pays no interest -- but is still at an 18-year high in terms of dollars -- is a testament to its value and safety in the eyes of sophisticated investors."

    Russell went on:

    "Gold-philes have been complaining of late that the gold stocks have not been following the metal. I've explained that there's an alternation that takes place in relative strength between bullion and gold shares. Even so... (XAU), a gold and silver average, has broken out above a major resistance level. However, Ame (HUI) has not confirmed."

    Short-term:

    "In the big picture, gold has gotten very far ahead of itself. The best action now would be a sideways movement, probably with gold holding above 485, while a correction allows some of the steam created by gold's latest rise to be released."

    excerpt from
    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 12-01-2005 at 04:52 PM.

Similar Threads

  1. one very low volume 'ahem' ...
    By Melonie in forum Dollar Den
    Replies: 32
    Last Post: 05-09-2006, 11:48 AM
  2. Ahem?!
    By Bella21 in forum Stripping (was Stripping General)
    Replies: 47
    Last Post: 08-31-2005, 02:08 AM
  3. *Ahem* Interesting way to support our troops
    By polecat in forum The Lounge
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 05-14-2004, 06:56 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •