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Thread: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

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    Default one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    The last time that gold kissed $540 an ounce was based on a 'short squeeze', and the speculators managed to drive the market back down. However, this time gold kissing $540 an ounce would appear to be based on fundamental changes in currency reserve policy by the Chinese, as well as a 'shift' in global thinking about the likely future of US$ denominated investments held by foreign owners.


    "Gold ends atop $541, up over 4% on week
    China to diversify foreign-exchange holdings
    By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
    Last Update: 4:18 PM ET Jan. 6, 2006

    SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed above $541 an ounce Friday to log a gain of more than 4% for the week with a decline in the U.S. dollar driving investors toward precious metals as a hedge against potential losses.

    Gold for February delivery closed at $541.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange after touching an intraday high of $541.80. Prices haven't closed at a level this high since March 1981, though on an intraday basis, they touched $543 on Dec. 12 of last year.

    The contract finished up $13.40 for the session and up $22.30, or 4.3%, for the week. Prices fell $7.80 on Thursday after rallying by more than $40 over the previous eight sessions.

    China said Thursday that it would diversify its foreign-exchange reserves away from U.S. dollars and government bonds. See related story.

    "China's announcement of wanting to diversify their foreign-exchange reserves holdings is going to have a profound effect on financial markets worldwide," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

    "It's the death blow to the U.S. dollar, which had enjoyed a temporary reprieve in 2005, and another bullish factor for gold going forward," he said.

    Also, "disappointing U.S. employment numbers spooked the dollar, and in turn boosted gold prices on its traditional inverse relationship," said Matthew Parry, an economist at Economy.com.

    The dollar fell to its lowest against the yen Friday since mid-October. See Currencies.

    "Diversifying away from dollars has become desirable -- retail investors returned to the precious metals arena in droves this week," said Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com.

    "Low yields on cash and negative real interest rates are adding fuel to this quest for adding gold and silver to one's portfolio," he said.

    However, "it is still mostly the fundamental picture of sluggish supply and robust demand plus the prospects for weakness in the dollar that are the engines of this latest spike in prices."

    Bullish outlook

    Against this backdrop, the outlook for bullion is "very positive," analysts at Desjardins Securities said in a note to clients. "The main reason is that investment demand will continue to boost the gold price. Underlying nervousness with regard to the fundamentals for the U.S. dollar is underpinning investment in gold."

    Economy.com's Parry said gold prices will remain supported above $500 in 2006, reflecting a weakening in the dollar tied to slower tightening in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve as well as continued tensions in the Middle East.

    Analysts at Nacional Bank raised their forecasts for gold to $525 an ounce in 2006 and 2007 and $500 an ounce in 2008.

    Speculation that central banks in countries including China, South Africa and Argentina will increase the portion of gold held as reserves is also keeping gold above $500 and fueling gains in gold equities, they said.

    Most other metals were higher, with March silver closing up 30.1 cents at $9.173 an ounce -- up 3.2% for the week. January platinum ended at $1,004.60 an ounce, adding $13.10 for the session to close the week with a gain of 2.6%. March palladium rose $7.05 to close at $273.40 an ounce, up 4.4% from the week-ago close.

    Copper's March contract tacked on 2.55 cents to finish at $2.086 a pound. It gained 2.2% for the week.

    On the supply side, copper inventories rose 336 short tons to 7,762 short tons as of last Thursday, according to Nymex.

    Gold stocks were unchanged at 6.91 million troy ounces, while supplies of silver were unchanged at 120.6 million troy ounces."

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    whew, gold just crossed $550 per ounce with authority !!!

    Monty or others, what is your take on this latest move ? IMHO it would appear that the US dollar is being devalued on a global basis, which has resulted in the US stock markets rising in about an equal amount to the US dollar devaluation (means US stock price in Euros or Yen is more or less unchanged), and which is resulting in an even steeper rise in the US dollar price of gold (means gold price in Euros and Yen is actually rising) as some international investors shift away from the US dollar.

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    Gold staying above $550 for half an hour does not count as "with authority" especially since it started losing money and the futures contract ended a scant $0.50 over the $550,00 mark. To be correct gold did not close over $550.

    "Spot gold (XAU=) was last quoted at $548.50/549.25" http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/060109/marke...ious.html?.v=3

    A futures contract is just a futures bet, not the current value of the commodity. The high was 550.75 and it could not hold it.

    If I were you I would take the gains and run and pat yourself on the back. I would not want to own gold anymore than I would want to own Google stock. At least not as an investment for anything more than a week. It does not mean that gold will go down in price, rather than the risk-adjusted return is likely to be higher in the stockmarket. Gold could go up 20%, but it could also dive $100/oz, just as goog could dive $100/share. Remember from here on in you only get 2/3rd of the gain and your uncle gets 1/3.

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    Monty, I really don't know how to respond to you. When gold first kissed $540 a few weeks ago you attributed the spike to speculation and assured us that gold would drop. When gold then kissed $550 last week you basically reiterated the point, implying that nothing of real economic substance is causing the increase, and more or less stating that a $100 per oz nosedive is a distinct possibility so bailing out would be a smart move. Here we are today with gold catching bids up to $558 ...

    Also, gold appreciation is a cap gain, so uncle sam gets 15% of the gain not 1/3rd.

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    just in case you haven't been following the precious metals markets. gold kissed $570 an ounce today ...

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    This may indeed by non fundamental and irrational and not supported by the statistics.
    As I have said before, in investments, "Beware the unanticipated event." One such unanticipated event was 9/11. Another such unanticipated event is last years hurricane season. Trouble in Iran, Nigeria, a Castro wanna be with oil in Venezuela, and
    Iraq (which has huge oil reserves) which somehow the US army without adequate troops can't get the oil system in Iraq back on line. (Is this another competence issue? Shouldn’t restoring the oil production help both Iraq and us? Why is this not a priority in Washington?)

    The point, for whatever reason, oil is going up, and that is the new reality of the market.
    As US currency has been detached from the gold standard since about Richard Nixon's era,
    it is debatable if this does mean inflation, given that labor rates in the developed world keep going down or are flat. But gold and metal commodities are going up and for whatever reason, illogic, or policy that is the new market. To ignore it based on economic theory is probably to ignore "the unanticipated event."

    We've been having a plethora of unanticipated events recently impacting economics.
    As they are unanticipated, they don’t fit theory or past experience. Ignoring the rise in price of gold is very dangerous given 2,000 years of history on what that usually means.

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    just an update ... gold looks like it's now holding above $580 per ounce !

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    So does this mean the average Joe should throw away their US dollars and stock up on gold??? move to another country?????? I read this stuff and it's nothing but problems.... no solutions no suggestions as to what to do about this "situation" just negative postings :-(

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    Actually, they aren't all negative postings. Many of the postings refer to methods of avoiding losses or even earning nice returns by making investments that anticipate a decline in the US dollar, a decline in the US real estate market etc.

    Also, there's a good body of research that correlates 'social moods' to the health of the economy and the stock market! If you have some time, check out ...


    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 03-31-2006 at 06:03 PM.

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    Well looks like I have missed all the good stuff... sorry for the outburst I panic when I read some threads in this area.... thanks for the site :-) this area has gone beyond my relm of understanding... it's too hard for me to read what you guys post in here. Not that you have to make it plain for just me but maybe for everyone else who reads here too.

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    well, the entire subject revolves around the fact that the US dollars that you and I are earning and spending today are not the same US dollars that our great-grandparents sweated for and saved ! The difference is that, once upon a time, US dollars were actually linked to precious metals in vaults such that there was some control about how many new dollars could be created thus some assurance that a dollar would be worth as much tomorrow as it is today in 'real' terms. But today's dollars can be created by a printing press or the touch of a keyboard, and there is essentially no control over how many new dollars can be created, thus no guarantee that tomorrow's dollar will buy anywhere near as much 'real' goods as today's dollar can.

    Where this hits home for most Americans is the discovery that revaluation of the "worth" of the US dollar can mean that the 10% increase in the US dollar resale value of their house actually means they took a loss in 'real' terms, that the US dollars in their savings account collecting 4% interest are actually not growing but shrinking at 10% per year in 'real' terms etc.
    Last edited by Melonie; 04-01-2006 at 11:14 AM.

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    That is something I recently fully realized. All Cd rates are yearly rates. If your cd is in for less than a year, you are actually getting a fraction of the rate quoted.

    I have been paying down debt the past year. I am looking for investment options that can start with small investment. Maybe buy a fraction of an oz of gold? lol

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    That is something I recently fully realized. All Cd rates are yearly rates. If your cd is in for less than a year, you are actually getting a fraction of the rate quoted.
    Well not exactly. You're correct that a 5% 6 month CD for $1000 pays $25 in simple interest (example only since interest is compounded in some form) whereas a 5% 6 month CD for $1000 pays $50 in simple interest.

    But what I'm speaking about is the 'real' value of the US dollar changing relative to the costs of basic commodities which contribute to the makeup of almost everything we buy ... things like food, oil for plastic, lumber, copper & aluminum & steel, energy for glassmaking etc. Thus if you can buy an item like say a refrigerator today for US$1000, but the price of the glass, copper, steel, plastic etc. used to build refrigerators goes up in price such that the selling price of that same refrigerator a year from now has to be US$1100, then saving money in a 5% CD results in a LOSS of US$50 during that year in 'real' terms (or MINUS 5%) because US$1050 a year from now won't even buy the same US$1000 worth of 'real' goods at today's prices.

    Compare this to the fact that the very same refrigerator now sells for say 800 Euros (with 1E=1.20US$ right now). But with the value of the Euro likely to rise further the future costs of glass, copper, steel, plastic etc. would actually be lower in the future in Euro terms, thus the very same refrigerator might sell for 720 Euros a year in the future. Thus putting 800 Euros in a 1.5% CD for a year results in a gain of E15 in interest plus E80 in purchasing power or a gain of E95 (or PLUS 9.5%) over the course of a year in the same 'real' terms.

    Obviously, this sort of situation provides a hidden incentive for Americans to spend their money fast before prices rise, but for Europeans to save/invest their money while prices fall. It also means that Americans need to find US$ denominated investments which pay 10% in US$ terms just to stay even in 'real' terms, whereas European investors are ahead of the game in 'real' terms even if their investments lose 10% of their value as denominated in Euros.

    This is not a recommendation, but it IS possible for Americans to invest in CD's, stocks etc. which ARE denominated in Euros. One possible source of Euro CD's is . Unfortunately, like many other investing opportunities that favor the 'rich' over the 'small timer', there is a 'minimum buy-in' i.e. the Euro CD's start at $10,000 minimum. Thus with Euro CD's it's possible to earn 1.5% interest, but also possible to earn another 5-10%+ when the CD matures and you exchange the Euros back into US dollars at an even higher exchange rate.
    ~
    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 04-02-2006 at 07:53 AM.

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    That is a great suggestion about Euro Cds. I was not aware of that. Now if i can find $10,000 laying around ill be in business lol

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    I would NOT bet on Euros (as a very new currency) over the US dollar. (a very old reliable currency). If it would be possible, I would put some money in instruments that pay in Swiss Francs, but not Euros.



    The economic key event worries are still not totally visible, only the outlines of some of them occurring. For instance gas was $1.60 per gal. this morning at Wal-Mart. Venezuela has not withheld oil from the US market. Iran is making rumblings but also has not yet with held oil from the US market. Meanwhile in Iraq, the US army has made no progress whatsoever at restoring oil flow from the oil fields. I suspect that there aren’t enough troops to do the garrison duty and enough left over to protect the oil workers. You would think monthly reports on electricity, water and oil infa structure repairs would be forthcoming from the Pentagon. As there are no progress reports, I like most Americans figure that the restoration of basic services is pretty much screwed up.



    Ten year Treasury yesterday hit about 4.9%. First Mortgages on houses at 80% L/V should be about 6.75% and aren’t. There are signs housing is cooling but not that the market has burst. The trend is slightly downward.



    GM cars sales were down 14% which is bad. All metal commodity prices are the highest they have been in twenty years. (Might be 30 years.)



    The weather has been bad with 350 tornados thus far in 2006 compared to a normal of 80- 90.



    Looks like the Fed is going to defend the dollar by raising rates. Don’t know if the rates will be 12% like 1980 but we’ll see.



    A lot of economic insecurity as pensions from companies are cut, 401Ks disappear due to bankruptcy, and retiree health care and prescription coverage totally disappears for some company employees. Losing health care and prescription coverage for young families in their late 30’s and early 40’s really hurts when the company goes Bankrupt.



    Did congress really intend the bankruptcy code to punish young families and old retired people by allowing companies to disregard their social obligations? Why are the contributions to defined benefit health plans allowed to be cut by companies so that the trust fund backing peoples pensions is always “depleted” when bankruptcy is declared?

    After all a very draconian bankruptcy revision was passed in 2005 that nails individuals hides to the wall but lets companies out of their obligations.



    A dollar decline would be much farther down the road if the next series of years handling

    The decline of GM and Ford and all the construction workers being out of work when housing construction dries up.



    The trend line on “unanticipated events” that effect the economy is now visible and it is a downward trend. But there are not enough data points yet, just a swirl of more than one problem swirling about.


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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    well, gold jumped right over $590 to break $600 per ounce today.



    The US$ has also dropped about 4% versus the Euro in the past month, with little technical reason to suspect a turnaround.

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    "ready for lift-off" ?

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    As someone who did (does?) work in the gold mining industry, I watch the fluctuations very closely, even if just to predict my stock prices. Maybe it was just a nasty rumour floating around the underground drifts but I heard that gold WILL hit 700 US an ounce again. Good news for the stockholders and the CEOs of the corporation but when will the labourers see their raises?

    Sorry, I'm just bitter I busted my ass 3/4 of a mile under the surface for twenty bucks an hour while the managers are selling the product of my labour and padding their own pockets.
    \

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    from $600 to $620 this week ...

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    If it hits 700 I'll sell my krugerrands. I'm still not buying anything based on market momentum.

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    .... hold out for $1000 an oz. minimum ! At the rate the price of gold is rising, and the rate at which the Fed is printing new money, gold is likely to hit $700 before the 4th of July !

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    .... hold out for $1000 an oz. minimum ! At the rate the price of gold is rising, and the rate at which the Fed is printing new money, gold is likely to hit $700 before the 4th of July !
    What's the historical price of gold like? What happened in 1980 and where did gold end up? *snicker* What's the compounded rate of return on gold from 1980 to today? It's next to nothing, is what it is. Gold is a sucker's bet. How many people are going to get burned?

    Gold US$ per ounce
    Jan 1980: $675
    Jan 1985: $300
    Jan 1990: $400
    Jan 1995: $385
    Jan 2000: $285

    What in the world makes you think that the increase in gold is going to be any different this time?

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    It's not going to be any different when the 'commodities cycle' completes itself. I'm not planning on owning my gold bars forever, any more than the people who bought gold at $120 in 1976 held onto it through the $600+ peak in 1980. I fully intend to sell them near the 'peak' of this next 'commodities cycle'. Buy low, sell high still applies. However, given general inflation since 1980, the peak of this latest gold cycle is likely to be three times as high as the $650 peak of the last cycle.

    We went through the stock cycle upswing in the late 90's - we went through the bond cycle upswing in the early 00's - we're just completing the real estate upswing - now the commodities cycle is starting to run up big time. Everything seems to go in cycles, and commodities are just the latest 'bubble'. However, the one truly different thing this time around is that 'joe sixpack' now has his 401k money available to invest in the most highly publicized investment sectors right near the peak of the cycle, which tends to push the 'irrational' top even higher ! You're right that 'joe sixpack' is probably going to get burned. However, people who got in early (I bought many of my gold bars below $300 an ounce on the first sign of a confirmed uptrend) and know when to get out, are going to profit rather handsomely.

    PS gold just 'kissed' $640 today ... that's almost a 20% gain since this thread started in January, and a 50% gain over the last 12 months ... sure beats the hell out of CD's which would have paid perhaps 1% actual interest (1/4th of 4% annual interest rate) since January, or the Nasdaq which is up maybe 3% since January ?
    .

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 04-19-2006 at 04:13 PM.

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    gold closed out the month of April above $650 an ounce ... about a 9% gain.

    I would also add that the Euro has strengthened by almost exactly the same percentage, going from around 1.18 to 1.265 US$ in the same one month period.

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    Default Re: one very low volume 'ahem' ...

    Wall Street Journal - Sat. April 29, 2006- GDP growth at 4.8% for first quater 2006.
    (That is very good and good news.) The story continues. Income numbers for quarter flat.

    "income numbers flat" tells the story. If you are a redeployer in the global economy, you may be doing very well. If you are a small car parts supplier, small parts compenent supplier (to GM or Ford), an old american manurfacturing company employee, or just a tyupical american worker your wages have been flat and nearly flat for ten years.

    You may have been a "redeployee" in glorbal economy. If so your wages have declined by 30 to 60% in your new service job.

    Yes you have a job. It just doesn't pay near what you earned in your old job and your new job has no benefits.

    If you are over 45, your company may have gone bankrupt, and your defined beneift pension (traditional pension) is now at the federal guaranteed rate which is much lower than the company rate. If your company switched to a 401k type (defined contribution pension) your fund has been wiped out because any company stock is worth zero.

    No american white collar worker has guarantted health and prescription benefits.
    If your company is bankruptct that is long gone. If your company is in trouble, it will be cut way back with high deductables (to "make you more efficent in your health choices"),
    or high co pays or both. If you are a union worker where the union controls the fund,
    thank god that your union was on the ball to take control of the funds long ago for both health beneifts and your pension.

    The economy is very good for some owners and some 21st century workers. If you are a nineteenth century or 20th century worker or even business owner you are probably in trouble.

    This is why americans are uncertain of the economy. Pensions gone or disappearing. Family health benefits gone or disappearing. Drug benefits gone or disappearing. New jobs with no beneifts and 50% less pay. (Welcome to a globalized world worders!)

    Old people who feel cheated by both the silly Medicare drug plan, the plans for "Social Security Recision", Pensions gone, and 401 k benefits gone.

    Stay tuned for more global redeployment on your life and family.

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